Grades · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 23 | ROK | GCL Red Sox | 8 | 0 | 17 | 57 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 0% | 2.1 | 11.9% | 8.8% | 3.2% | 0.0% | 1.06 | 3.20 | — |
| 2016 | 23 | ROK | GCL Red Sox | 8 | 0 | 17 | 57 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 0% | 2.1 | 17.5% | 7.0% | 10.5% | 0.0% | 1.06 | 2.63 | — |
| 2017 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 24 | 1 | 53 | 226 | 46 | 24 | 5 | 4% | 2.2 | 15.1% | 13.7% | 1.3% | 3.7% | 4.10 | 5.61 | — |
| 2017 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 24 | 1 | 53 | 226 | 46 | 24 | 5 | 4% | 2.2 | 20.4% | 10.6% | 9.7% | 2.2% | 4.10 | 3.95 | — |
| 2018 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 43 | 0 | 59 | 257 | 63 | 33 | 4 | 0% | 1.4 | 19.0% | 12.0% | 7.0% | 1.4% | 3.36 | 3.79 | — |
| 2018 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 43 | 0 | 59 | 257 | 63 | 33 | 4 | 0% | 1.4 | 24.5% | 12.8% | 11.7% | 1.6% | 3.36 | 3.52 | — |
| 2019 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 1 | 56 | 248 | 69 | 32 | 2 | 2% | 1.4 | 22.9% | 14.1% | 8.9% | 0.9% | 4.37 | 3.47 | — |
| 2019 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 1 | 56 | 248 | 69 | 32 | 2 | 2% | 1.4 | 27.8% | 12.9% | 14.9% | 0.8% | 4.37 | 2.81 | — |
| 2020 | 27 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 9 | 0 | 14 | 58 | 18 | 7 | 1 | 0% | 1.6 | 31.0% | 12.1% | 19.0% | 1.8% | 3.21 | 3.00 | +0.3 |
| 2020 | 27 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 9 | 0 | 14 | 58 | 18 | 7 | 1 | 0% | 1.6 | 31.0% | 12.1% | 19.0% | 1.7% | 3.21 | 2.96 | +0.3 |
| 2021 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 0 | 34 | 156 | 33 | 19 | 11 | 0% | 0.9 | 18.2% | 11.7% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 8.74 | 7.76 | -1.3 |
| 2021 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 0 | 34 | 156 | 33 | 19 | 11 | 0% | 0.9 | 21.2% | 12.2% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 8.74 | 7.04 | -1.0 |
| 2022 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 65 | 0 | 80 | 323 | 90 | 23 | 11 | 0% | 1.2 | 26.0% | 7.3% | 18.7% | 3.3% | 3.95 | 3.66 | +1.2 |
| 2022 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 65 | 0 | 80 | 323 | 90 | 23 | 11 | 0% | 1.2 | 27.9% | 7.1% | 20.7% | 3.4% | 3.95 | 3.50 | +1.4 |
| 2023 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 73 | 0 | 79 | 329 | 84 | 36 | 11 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.7% | 11.1% | 13.5% | 3.3% | 3.66 | 4.26 | +0.6 |
| 2023 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 73 | 0 | 79 | 329 | 84 | 36 | 11 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.5% | 10.9% | 14.6% | 3.3% | 3.66 | 4.16 | +0.7 |
| 2024 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 53 | 0 | 55 | 257 | 50 | 30 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.8% | 11.8% | 7.0% | 3.2% | 6.09 | 4.75 | -0.1 |
| 2024 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 53 | 0 | 55 | 257 | 50 | 30 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.5% | 11.7% | 7.8% | 3.1% | 6.09 | 4.82 | -0.2 |
| 2025 | 32 | MIX | 2 levels | 43 | 0 | 51 | 229 | 49 | 26 | 5 | 0% | 1.2 | 20.9% | 11.7% | 9.2% | 2.9% | 5.29 | 4.41 | +0.1 |
| 2025 | 32 | MIX | 2 levels | 43 | 0 | 51 | 229 | 49 | 26 | 5 | 0% | 1.2 | 21.4% | 11.4% | 10.0% | 2.2% | 5.29 | 3.98 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 33 | AAA | Oklahoma City Comets | 17 | 0 | 14 | 77 | 9 | 16 | 4 | 0% | 0.8 | 10.3% | 21.8% | -11.5% | 5.7% | 9.22 | 8.13 | -0.6 |
| ROS | 33 | MLB | LAD | 33 | 0 | 34 | 145 | 31 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.5% | 10.9% | 10.6% | 3.2% | 4.72 | 4.82 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 33 | MLB | LAD | 3 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.5% | 10.9% | 10.6% | 3.1% | 4.67 | 4.77 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 33 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 48 | 222 | 40 | 32 | 9 | — | — | 18.1% | 14.3% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 6.00 | 5.76 | -0.7 |
| 2026 FULL | 33 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 3 | 15 | 3 | 2 | 0 | — | — | 21.5% | 10.9% | 10.6% | 3.1% | 4.67 | 4.39 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | LAD | 30 | 0 | 31 | 132 | 27 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.6% | 11.4% | 9.2% | 3.5% | 4.96 | 5.12 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | LAD | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.6% | 11.4% | 9.2% | 3.4% | 4.91 | 5.07 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 149 | 0 | 165 | 727 | 166 | 75 | 27 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.8% | 10.4% | 12.4% | 3.7% | 5.49 | 4.51 | +1.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 180 | 0 | 200 | 880 | 201 | 91 | 33 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.8% | 10.4% | 12.4% | 3.7% | 5.49 | 4.51 | +2.1 | ||
| Career | — | 413 | 2 | 510 | 2217 | 462 | 261 | 70 | 0% | 1.2 | 20.8% | 11.8% | 9.1% | 3.1% | 4.61 | 4.56 | +5.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 162 | 1 | 200 | 869 | 181 | 102 | 27 | 0% | 1.2 | 20.8% | 11.8% | 9.1% | 3.1% | 4.61 | 4.56 | +2.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jordan Weems (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.82 | 21.5% | 10.9% | 3.2% | — | 5.12 | 20.6% | 9.2% | 31 | +0.30 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Nieve R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 81 |
| Clayton Mortensen R 2025 · 4.62 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.62 | 23.2% | 14.2% | 3.1% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 221 | 76 |
| Miguel Mejia R 2024 · 4.23 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.23 | 15.7% | 10.7% | 2.0% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.46 | 108 | 73 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2026 · 4.77 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.77 | 18.0% | 8.0% | 4.0% | .286 | 3.18 | 23.7% | 17.9% | 150 | -1.59 | 2.27 | 426 | 73 |
| Matt Bush R 2025 · 4.74 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.74 | 17.6% | 13.0% | 2.7% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.86 | 249 | 73 |
| Radhames Liz R 2027 · 4.31 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.31 | 21.8% | 13.9% | 2.3% | .343 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.77 | 110 | 73 |
| Ryan Cook R 2024 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 72 |
| Tom Wilhelmsen R 2026 · 5.46 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.46 | 14.3% | 10.4% | 4.1% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.09 | 148 | 72 |
| Jumbo Diaz R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.22 | 20.0% | 9.7% | 2.9% | .302 | 2.90 | 24.2% | 15.4% | 98 | -1.32 | 2.82 | 284 | 72 |
| Manny Acosta R 2028 · 3.99 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.99 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .273 | 3.04 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -0.95 | 3.04 | 102 | 72 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2026 · 5.21 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.21 | 18.0% | 9.6% | 4.4% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.05 | 176 | 72 |
| Arquimedes Caminero R 2025 · 4.46 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.46 | 18.6% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .248 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.46 | 173 | 71 |
| Nate Jones R 2025 · 4.06 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.06 | 23.4% | 10.9% | 2.8% | .279 | 6.10 | 21.4% | 13.8% | 38 | +2.04 | 2.54 | 157 | 71 |
| Wade Davis R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.59 | 20.4% | 14.1% | 2.6% | .344 | 5.15 | 20.0% | 10.0% | 43 | +0.56 | 2.00 | 320 | 71 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2026 · 4.99 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.99 | 23.4% | 10.7% | 4.6% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.26 | 122 | 70 |
| Jon Edwards R 2024 · 4.46 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.46 | 25.1% | 11.6% | 3.7% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 132 | 69 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.24 | 20.5% | 11.5% | 2.6% | .412 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 137 | 69 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2026 · 5.47 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.47 | 15.0% | 14.5% | 3.3% | .300 | 4.24 | 20.9% | 13.0% | 145 | -1.23 | 3.83 | 208 | 69 |
| Jean Machi R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.50 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.1% | .276 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.44 | 3.92 | 186 | 69 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2026 · 4.84 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.84 | 17.4% | 11.4% | 3.2% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.23 | 253 | 69 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 33 | 21.1% | 11.2% | 1.30 | 4.83 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |