Justice ThompsonOF
Chattanooga Lookouts
Age 26
R/R
6'4" / 205 lbs
AA
HR +9%K -4%
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
wRC+†58
AVG/OBP/SLG.192 / .261 / .313
PA205
HR5
K%36
BB%8
MLB%2%
Scouting · now → future
HIT
20→20
PWR
38→38
SPD
45→45
EYE
43→43
trajectory · 10 yrs
-0.4peak
2027
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | — | — | — |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | — | — | — |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | — | — | — |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.2M | — | — | — |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | — | — | — |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | — | — | — |
| Totals | $-9M | $-30M | -$21M | ||
Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$21M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$21M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.
Career Projections (MLE)
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 21 | A | 2 teams | 106 | 93 | 19 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 37 | 1 | 2 | 1 | .204 | .295 | .323 | .618 | .118 | .315 | 35 | 10 | .257 | 55 | -5 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +3 | -0.3 |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ | 2 teams | 385 | 340 | 64 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 39 | 165 | 5 | 23 | 8 | .188 | .281 | .274 | .555 | .085 | .345 | 43 | 10 | .250 | 50 | -22 | +1 | +0 | -2 | +11 | -1.2 |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | 394 | 357 | 68 | 13 | 3 | 7 | 32 | 155 | 4 | 11 | 3 | .190 | .265 | .303 | .567 | .112 | .311 | 39 | 8 | .256 | 54 | -20 | +1 | +0 | -2 | +11 | -1.1 |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | 252 | 235 | 38 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 103 | 2 | 2 | 1 | .162 | .218 | .243 | .461 | .081 | .266 | 41 | 6 | .204 | 14 | -24 | +0 | +0 | -2 | +7 | -1.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | CIN | 205 | 185 | 37 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 74 | 2 | 3 | 1 | .200 | .271 | .330 | .601 | .130 | .288 | 36 | 8 | .262 | 58 | -10 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +6 | -0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB 11% | CIN | 237 | 214 | 43 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 19 | 82 | 2 | 4 | 1 | .201 | .272 | .332 | .604 | .131 | .289 | 35 | 8 | .268 | 63 | -10 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +7 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB 22% | CIN | 294 | 265 | 53 | 10 | 1 | 7 | 24 | 100 | 3 | 4 | 1 | .200 | .274 | .325 | .599 | .125 | .289 | 34 | 8 | .271 | 66 | -11 | +0 | -1 | -2 | +8 | -0.5 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB 34% | CIN | 323 | 291 | 59 | 11 | 1 | 8 | 26 | 109 | 3 | 4 | 1 | .203 | .275 | .330 | .605 | .127 | .288 | 34 | 8 | .272 | 66 | -12 | +0 | -1 | -2 | +9 | -0.6 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB 44% | CIN | 343 | 309 | 62 | 12 | 1 | 8 | 28 | 116 | 3 | 4 | 1 | .201 | .274 | .324 | .597 | .123 | .287 | 34 | 8 | .270 | 65 | -14 | +0 | -2 | -2 | +10 | -0.8 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB 58% | CIN | 340 | 306 | 60 | 11 | 1 | 8 | 28 | 116 | 3 | 3 | 0 | .196 | .270 | .317 | .587 | .121 | .285 | 34 | 8 | .266 | 62 | -15 | +1 | -3 | -2 | +10 | -0.9 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB 76% | CIN | 329 | 296 | 58 | 11 | 1 | 7 | 27 | 114 | 3 | 2 | 0 | .196 | .270 | .311 | .581 | .115 | .284 | 35 | 8 | .261 | 58 | -16 | +0 | -4 | -2 | +9 | -1.2 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB 93% | CIN | 304 | 274 | 52 | 10 | 1 | 6 | 24 | 108 | 3 | 2 | 0 | .190 | .262 | .299 | .562 | .109 | .282 | 36 | 8 | .256 | 54 | -16 | +0 | -4 | -2 | +9 | -1.3 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | CIN | 265 | 240 | 44 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 96 | 2 | 2 | 0 | .183 | .255 | .287 | .542 | .104 | .280 | 36 | 8 | .250 | 49 | -15 | +0 | -5 | -2 | +8 | -1.4 |
| ▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 3777 | 3405 | 657 | 119 | 16 | 78 | 310 | 1375 | 36 | 66 | 18 | .193 | .267 | .306 | .573 | .113 | .294 | 36 | 8 | .258 | 55 | -190 | +6 | -20 | -23 | +107 | -12.2 | ||
| / 162G | — | 650 | 586 | 112 | 20 | 3 | 13 | 53 | 237 | 6 | 11 | 3 | .191 | .265 | .302 | .567 | .111 | .292 | 36 | 8 | .258 | 55 | -33 | +1 | -3 | -4 | +18 | -2.1 | ||
Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)
Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 21 | A | Daytona Tortugas | 83 | 69 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 23 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .217 | .341 | .333 | .675 | .116 | .295 | 28 | 16 | .310 | 96 | -0 | +0 | — | — | +2 | 0.2 |
| 2021 | 21 | ROK | ACL Reds | 23 | 19 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | .316 | .435 | .526 | .961 | .211 | .429 | 22 | 13 | .423 | 182 | +2 | -0 | — | — | +1 | 0.3 |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | 346 | 291 | 72 | 15 | 2 | 7 | 49 | 117 | 5 | 20 | 7 | .247 | .365 | .385 | .750 | .137 | .387 | 34 | 14 | .342 | 120 | +8 | +1 | — | — | +10 | 1.9 |
| 2022 | 22 | A | Daytona Tortugas | 39 | 35 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 0 | 3 | 1 | .257 | .333 | .286 | .619 | .029 | .500 | 44 | 10 | .290 | 80 | -1 | +0 | — | — | +1 | 0.0 |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | 394 | 339 | 84 | 19 | 4 | 9 | 48 | 118 | 4 | 11 | 3 | .248 | .346 | .407 | .753 | .159 | .352 | 30 | 12 | .338 | 117 | +7 | +1 | — | — | +11 | 2.0 |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | 252 | 228 | 46 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 80 | 2 | 2 | 1 | .202 | .278 | .307 | .585 | .105 | .287 | 32 | 9 | .269 | 64 | -10 | +0 | — | — | +7 | -0.3 |
Career Path Comps
What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Scouting | At Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Peak 3 Yrs | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | HIT | PWR | SPD | EYE | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR |
| Justice Thompson (OGILVIE) | 26 | 20 | 38 | 45 | 43 | .192/.261/.313 | .120 | .288 | 5 | 3 | 36% | 8% | 58 | -0.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
|
✕Chase Pinder 2022 · AA |
26 | 38 | 42→45 | 43→45 | 44 | .190/.273/.285 | .095 | .272 | 10 | 5 | 32% | 8% | 56 | -1.3 | .226/.321/.370 | .144 | .293 | 15 | 10 | 26% | 11% | 98 | +1.6 | .221/.324/.370 | .149 | .286 | 16 | 11 | 27% | 12% | 97 | +0.8 |
|
✕Chris Sharpe 2022 · AAA |
26 | 38→39 | 45 | 45→50 | 39 | .191/.258/.315 | .124 | .278 | 12 | 11 | 34% | 6% | 57 | -1.2 | .189/.266/.294 | .105 | .293 | 8 | 13 | 36% | 8% | 56 | -1.3 | .164/.257/.268 | .103 | .258 | 7 | 16 | 36% | 9% | 46 | -1.0 |
|
✕Davis Wendzel 2023 · AAA |
26 | 35→28 | 49→50 | 43→40 | 41 | .191/.255/.331 | .140 | .253 | 18 | 5 | 32% | 7% | 60 | -1.0 | .195/.273/.341 | .146 | .245 | 19 | 5 | 28% | 8% | 71 | -0.3 | .191/.275/.335 | .144 | .229 | 19 | 4 | 26% | 8% | 68 | -0.4 |
|
✕Daniel Amaral 2023 · AA |
26 | 41 | 47→40 | 48→55 | 41 | .209/.268/.341 | .133 | .288 | 15 | 14 | 32% | 7% | 68 | -0.5 | .231/.302/.338 | .107 | .302 | 9 | 28 | 25% | 8% | 81 | +0.4 | .241/.322/.332 | .091 | .312 | 6 | 48 | 22% | 9% | 85 | +0.3 |
|
✕Tyler Marincov 2018 · AA |
26 | 40→41 | 45→50 | 44→50 | 38 | .204/.257/.326 | .122 | .289 | 13 | 9 | 33% | 6% | 59 | -1.1 | .196/.253/.340 | .144 | .300 | 19 | 10 | 39% | 6% | 62 | -0.9 | .165/.222/.300 | .135 | .246 | 20 | 14 | 41% | 7% | 37 | -1.6 |
|
✕Jayson Langfels 2014 · AA |
25 | 42→32 | 43→40 | 46→50 | 37 | .201/.264/.310 | .109 | .312 | 11 | 11 | 37% | 6% | 58 | -1.2 | .206/.279/.294 | .088 | .335 | 7 | 14 | 38% | 7% | 60 | -1.0 | .202/.285/.272 | .070 | .341 | 4 | 17 | 38% | 8% | 54 | -0.8 |
|
✕Caleb Hamilton 2022 · AAA |
27 | 36 | 44→45 | 46→45 | 43 | .181/.257/.295 | .114 | .275 | 12 | 9 | 37% | 9% | 52 | -1.6 | .181/.267/.319 | .138 | .277 | 18 | 6 | 38% | 10% | 63 | -0.9 | .145/.237/.274 | .129 | .209 | 19 | 3 | 39% | 10% | 37 | -0.8 |
|
✕JJ Schwarz 2022 · AA |
26 | 38 | 44→45 | 47→30 | 44 | .195/.260/.302 | .108 | .268 | 12 | 4 | 31% | 8% | 54 | -1.4 | .216/.284/.346 | .130 | .306 | 15 | 4 | 32% | 9% | 76 | +0.0 | .206/.279/.334 | .128 | .290 | 16 | 1 | 33% | 9% | 68 | -0.3 |
|
✕Camden Duzenack 2021 · AA |
26 | 35→37 | 45→50 | 47→50 | 39 | .184/.244/.304 | .120 | .244 | 14 | 10 | 30% | 6% | 48 | -1.9 | .203/.249/.336 | .133 | .277 | 16 | 10 | 32% | 5% | 59 | -1.1 | .205/.254/.334 | .129 | .270 | 15 | 10 | 29% | 5% | 57 | -0.6 |
|
✕Joe DeCarlo 2021 · AA |
27 | 40→38 | 43→50 | 47→30 | 40 | .197/.265/.308 | .111 | .291 | 11 | 5 | 34% | 7% | 58 | -1.2 | .199/.260/.292 | .093 | .305 | 9 | 6 | 35% | 7% | 51 | -1.7 | .163/.224/.224 | .061 | .249 | 8 | 0 | 36% | 7% | 16 | -1.3 |
|
✕Jacob Heyward 2022 · AA |
26 | 38→40 | 50 | 42→50 | 44 | .192/.286/.345 | .153 | .293 | 18 | 8 | 38% | 10% | 78 | +0.2 | .193/.266/.328 | .135 | .309 | 17 | 5 | 40% | 8% | 64 | -0.8 | .160/.236/.267 | .107 | .265 | 15 | 1 | 43% | 8% | 34 | -1.7 |
|
✕Mark Contreras 2021 · AA |
26 | 36→38 | 44→50 | 47→55 | 38 | .183/.247/.298 | .115 | .269 | 11 | 13 | 35% | 6% | 48 | -1.9 | .201/.262/.346 | .145 | .292 | 17 | 19 | 36% | 6% | 66 | -0.6 | .199/.260/.339 | .140 | .286 | 17 | 24 | 35% | 6% | 61 | -0.7 |
|
✕Sean Coyle 2017 · AAA |
25 | 36 | 45→50 | 48→50 | 37 | .186/.248/.306 | .120 | .290 | 14 | 12 | 39% | 7% | 50 | -1.7 | .185/.245/.287 | .102 | .286 | 9 | 10 | 36% | 7% | 43 | -2.2 | .153/.212/.244 | .092 | .224 | 3 | 6 | 32% | 7% | 14 | -1.0 |
|
✕Jeffrey Eure 2007 · AA |
26 | 39→31 | 48→50 | 41→45 | 34 | .201/.249/.340 | .139 | .286 | 16 | 5 | 35% | 4% | 59 | -1.1 | .202/.256/.317 | .115 | .302 | 11 | 7 | 35% | 5% | 56 | -1.3 | .159/.222/.237 | .078 | .262 | 5 | 5 | 39% | 5% | 17 | -1.2 |
|
✕McCarthy Tatum 2022 · AA |
26 | 34→25 | 42→55 | 45→50 | 35 | .173/.235/.271 | .098 | .281 | 10 | 6 | 40% | 6% | 36 | -2.7 | .198/.254/.317 | .119 | .290 | 12 | 10 | 34% | 5% | 56 | -1.3 | .201/.254/.332 | .131 | .279 | 12 | 11 | 31% | 4% | 55 | -0.5 |
|
✕Jordan Betts 2018 · AA |
26 | 36→29 | 43→45 | 46→40 | 35 | .184/.232/.292 | .108 | .283 | 11 | 5 | 38% | 6% | 39 | -2.5 | .203/.251/.317 | .114 | .300 | 13 | 4 | 35% | 6% | 54 | -1.4 | .191/.237/.292 | .101 | .273 | 13 | 0 | 34% | 5% | 38 | -1.6 |
|
✕Toby Welk 2022 · AA |
25 | 39→33 | 44→45 | 48→45 | 42 | .196/.263/.315 | .118 | .271 | 12 | 9 | 31% | 7% | 59 | -1.1 | .204/.262/.318 | .114 | .295 | 12 | 7 | 33% | 7% | 59 | -1.1 | .195/.242/.316 | .121 | .282 | 13 | 0 | 35% | 5% | 50 | -0.5 |
|
✕Aaron Schunk 2023 · AA |
26 | 40→43 | 44→45 | 48→50 | 36 | .203/.250/.319 | .116 | .288 | 12 | 9 | 33% | 5% | 53 | -1.5 | .216/.261/.332 | .116 | .297 | 11 | 10 | 30% | 5% | 62 | -0.9 | .216/.262/.331 | .115 | .289 | 11 | 10 | 28% | 5% | 58 | -0.8 |
|
✕Cory Vaughn 2015 · AAA |
26 | 38→40 | 45 | 54→50 | 42 | .196/.270/.318 | .122 | .273 | 13 | 15 | 32% | 7% | 63 | -0.8 | .193/.258/.302 | .109 | .284 | 11 | 12 | 34% | 7% | 53 | -1.5 | .153/.220/.254 | .100 | .233 | 9 | 9 | 36% | 7% | 22 | -1.3 |
|
✕Nick Quintana 2023 · AA |
25 | 38→40 | 44→45 | 43→45 | 48 | .192/.276/.305 | .113 | .261 | 12 | 6 | 30% | 9% | 63 | -0.9 | .193/.276/.302 | .109 | .277 | 10 | 6 | 32% | 9% | 62 | -0.9 | .109/.220/.196 | .087 | .164 | 8 | 0 | 36% | 9% | 11 | -1.0 |