Sam Knowlton

P San Jose Giants

Age 27 RHP 6'8" / 255 lbs A

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	AARI	31	35	5.66	3.84	24.6%	18.9%	—	K 18.2% · BB 22.3% · FIP 4.75
2025	25	A+ARI	47	46	5.05	3.55	26.3%	20.7%	—	K 20.2% · BB 23.8% · FIP 4.41
2026	26	MIX2 levels	23	26	7.71	7.62	18.4%	27.9%	—	K 15.3% · BB 30.8% · FIP 8.81
2027PROJ	27	MLBARI	57	60	6.01	6.01	18.6%	20.0%	-0.9
2028PROJ36% MLB	28	MLBARI	20	21	5.89	5.92	18.9%	19.1%	-0.3
2029PROJ55% MLB	29	MLBARI	29	30	5.87	5.93	19.0%	18.6%	-0.4

Next 3 projected WAR -1.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control20Command30

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsTrey Haley (age 26) · Mitchell Stumpo (age 27) · Haden Erbe (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 147139vR 131

ERA6.01

FIP6.01

K%18.6%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%-1.4%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL2020

CMD3030

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	24	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	31	0	35	175	43	33	1	0%	1.1	18.2%	22.3%	-4.1%	0.7%	5.66	4.75	—
2024	24	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	31	0	35	175	43	33	1	0%	1.1	18.2%	22.3%	-4.1%	0.7%	5.66	4.75	—
2024	24	A RAW	Visalia Rawhide	31	0	35	175	43	33	1	0%	1.1	24.6%	18.9%	5.7%	0.6%	5.66	3.84	—
2025	25	A+ MLE	Hillsboro Hops	47	0	46	217	57	45	0	0%	1.0	20.2%	23.8%	-3.6%	0.0%	5.05	4.41	—
2025	25	A+ MLE	Hillsboro Hops	47	0	46	217	57	45	0	0%	1.0	20.2%	23.8%	-3.6%	0.0%	5.05	4.41	—
2025	25	A+ RAW	Hillsboro Hops	47	0	46	217	57	45	0	0%	1.0	26.3%	20.7%	5.5%	0.0%	5.05	3.55	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	0	26	136	25	38	4	0%	1.1	15.3%	30.8%	-15.5%	5.7%	7.71	8.81	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	0	26	136	25	38	4	0%	1.1	15.3%	30.8%	-15.5%	5.7%	7.71	8.81	—
2026	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	0	26	136	25	38	4	0%	1.1	18.4%	27.9%	-9.6%	2.9%	7.71	7.62	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	ARI	57	0	60	253	47	51	7	0%	1.1	18.6%	20.0%	-1.4%	2.8%	6.01	6.01	-0.9
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	ARI	55	0	58	244	46	46	7	0%	1.0	18.9%	19.1%	-0.2%	3.0%	5.89	5.92	-0.9
2029	29	MLB MLE	ARI	52	0	55	233	44	43	7	0%	1.1	19.0%	18.6%	0.5%	3.1%	5.87	5.93	-0.8
2028	28	MLB CTX	ARI	20	0	21	89	17	17	3	0%	1.1	18.9%	19.1%	-0.2%	3.0%	5.89	5.92	-0.3
2029	29	MLB CTX	ARI	29	0	30	127	24	23	4	0%	1.0	19.0%	18.6%	0.5%	3.1%	5.87	5.93	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		49	0	51	216	41	41	7	0%	1.0	19.0%	18.8%	0.2%	3.1%	5.88	5.55	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	160	160	27	0%	1.1	19.0%	18.8%	0.2%	3.1%	5.88	5.55	-2.3
Career	—	MLE		101	0	107	528	96	133	9	0%	1.1	18.3%	25.1%	-6.8%	1.7%	5.89	5.66	-1.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		189	0	200	987	180	248	17	0%	1.1	18.3%	25.1%	-6.8%	1.7%	5.89	5.66	-3.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Sam Knowlton (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.01	18.6%	20.0%	2.8%	—	5.92	19.0%	0.2%	113	-0.09	—	—	—
Trey Haley R 2016 · 4.98 FIP	26	SU	4.98	14.0%	16.5%	1.8%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	3.14	111	83
Mitchell Stumpo R 2023 · 6.35 FIP	27	SU	6.35	20.6%	20.8%	4.3%	.368	4.77	22.6%	15.5%	34	-1.58	3.97	158	82
Haden Erbe R 2024 · 5.28 FIP	25	SU	5.28	18.4%	16.5%	3.0%	.320	5.19	17.8%	0.5%	40	-0.09	5.19	116	82
Vic Black R 2015 · 5.28 FIP	27	SU	5.28	17.5%	19.3%	2.2%	.358	6.03	9.0%	-11.6%	29	+0.75	3.16	107	81
Julian Arballo R 2015 · 5.13 FIP	27	SU	5.13	15.1%	13.8%	2.8%	.335	4.46	12.6%	0.6%	116	-0.67	4.45	214	81
Jordan Gore R 2022 · 5.37 FIP	27	SU	5.37	15.2%	18.5%	2.2%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.20	113	80
Stevie Branche R 2024 · 5.67 FIP	27	SU	5.67	19.3%	17.6%	3.6%	.320	—	—	—	—	—	3.23	162	80
Kevin Gryboski R 2002 · 5.02 FIP	28	SU	5.02	13.9%	13.4%	2.5%	.263	3.83	12.0%	2.9%	126	-1.19	3.67	178	79
Zane Russell R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	24	SU	4.95	22.7%	18.3%	2.6%	.314	5.36	18.2%	6.7%	71	+0.41	4.63	108	79
Connor Law R 2021 · 6.15 FIP	27	SU	6.15	16.2%	17.2%	4.1%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	110	79
Chris Jefferson R 2024 · 5.65 FIP	27	SU	5.65	16.4%	13.6%	4.0%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	140	78
Livan Reinoso R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	25	SU	4.90	15.1%	17.7%	1.5%	.229	5.67	16.1%	-2.1%	99	+0.77	4.36	219	78
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	77
Luis García R 2014 · 5.50 FIP	27	SU	5.50	17.4%	18.8%	2.7%	.286	3.26	20.5%	11.4%	208	-2.24	2.33	662	77
Mike Hepple R 2016 · 5.75 FIP	26	SU	5.75	11.1%	18.5%	2.3%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	116	77
Ryan Sublette R 2024 · 5.72 FIP	25	SU	5.72	19.9%	17.5%	3.8%	.214	4.47	18.6%	5.0%	53	-1.25	3.74	203	77
Roman Phansalkar R 2024 · 5.39 FIP	26	SU	5.39	15.8%	13.2%	3.6%	.294	4.33	18.2%	3.7%	31	-1.06	4.33	164	77
Cre Finfrock R 2022 · 6.31 FIP	26	SU	6.31	16.7%	25.2%	2.6%	.309	—	—	—	—	—	4.27	103	77
Tyler Davis R 2024 · 6.02 FIP	25	SU	6.02	21.0%	18.8%	4.2%	.317	3.78	21.9%	10.2%	111	-2.24	3.20	137	77
Matt Lollis R 2016 · 4.95 FIP	25	SU	4.95	19.2%	14.5%	3.0%	.221	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	120	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	57	18.8%	19.2%	1.15	5.93
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Lloyd Allen ('69-'75, -5 WAR*)	1.5	59	19.8%*	13.9%*	0.79*	5.99*