Luke Mann

3B Midland RockHounds

Age 27 L/R 6'1" / 220 lbs AA HR -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2036

MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	25	AAAOAK	54	.200/.321/.489	3	1	63	—	.170/.264/.383
2025	25	AAOAK	462	.197/.305/.340	11	8	34	—	.151/.230/.251
2026	26	AAAOAK	95	.289/.379/.506	5	0	99	—	.244/.316/.384
2026	26	AAOAK	281	.230/.301/.437	14	2	53	—	.179/.229/.324
2027PROJ2% MLB	27	MLBOAK	5	.193/.257/.328	0	0	61	-0.0
2028PROJ27% MLB	28	MLBOAK	89	.194/.259/.328	2	1	61	-0.2

Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$0.9M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$3M2034Ext$5M+1

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AAA

Chase%83

Max EV79

BB%50

K%48

Whiff%35

Z-Con%31

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsPatrick Dorrian (age 27) · Tristan Gray (age 27) · Colt Morton (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†61

AVG/OBP/SLG.193 / .257 / .328

PA5

HR0

K%40

BB%7

BABIP273

ISO136

MLB%2%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 30 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT30

scouting grade only

POWER45

scouting grade only

EYE50

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	24	A+	Lansing Lugnuts	—	324	286	62	9	2	8	27	82	8	2	0	217	301	346	647	129	273	25	8	293	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	A	Stockton Ports	—	183	159	47	9	1	8	20	42	3	1	0	296	385	516	900	220	355	23	11	395	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AAA	Las Vegas Aviators	—	54	45	9	2	1	3	8	19	0	1	0	200	321	489	810	289	250	35	15	347	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AA	Midland RockHounds	—	462	391	77	19	2	11	52	139	9	8	1	197	305	340	645	143	263	30	11	290	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	26	AAA	Las Vegas Aviators	—	95	83	24	3	0	5	11	22	1	0	0	289	379	506	885	217	339	23	12	391	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	26	AA	Midland RockHounds	—	281	252	58	10	0	14	25	93	1	2	0	230	301	437	738	206	299	33	9	324	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	24	A+ MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	—	324	295	50	7	1	7	19	107	8	2	0	169	239	271	510	102	230	33	6	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	A MLE	Stockton Ports	—	183	166	37	7	1	5	13	56	3	1	0	223	291	367	659	145	291	31	7	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AAA MLE	Las Vegas Aviators	—	54	47	8	2	1	2	6	22	0	1	0	170	264	383	647	213	218	41	11	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AA MLE	Midland RockHounds	—	462	410	62	13	2	8	33	172	9	8	1	151	230	251	481	100	216	37	7	219	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	26	AAA MLE	Las Vegas Aviators	—	95	86	21	3	0	3	8	26	1	0	0	244	316	384	700	140	320	27	8	315	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	26	AA MLE	Midland RockHounds	—	281	262	47	8	0	10	16	114	1	2	0	179	229	324	554	145	262	41	6	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	507	460	85	13	2	12	33	163	11	3	0	185	256	300	556	115	253	32	7	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	507	445	109	18	3	16	47	124	11	3	0	245	331	407	738	162	302	24	9	330	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AA MLE	2 teams	—	516	457	70	15	3	10	39	194	9	9	1	153	234	265	498	112	227	38	8	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AA RAW	2 teams	—	516	436	86	21	3	14	60	158	9	9	1	197	307	356	662	158	262	31	12	296	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	26	AA MLE	2 teams	—	376	348	69	10	0	14	24	140	2	2	0	198	254	348	602	149	281	37	6	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	26	AA RAW	2 teams	—	376	335	82	13	0	19	36	115	2	2	0	245	321	454	775	209	310	31	10	341	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	507	458	85	13	2	12	33	163	11	3	0	186	256	301	557	116	252	32	7	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AA MLE	2 teams	—	516	463	70	15	3	10	39	194	9	9	1	151	234	261	495	110	216	38	8	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	26	AA MLE	2 teams	—	376	347	69	10	0	14	24	140	2	2	0	199	254	349	603	150	277	37	6	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	24	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	507	458	85	13	2	12	33	163	11	3	0	186	256	301	557	116	252	32	7	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AA MLE	2 teams	—	516	463	70	15	3	10	39	194	9	9	1	151	234	261	495	110	216	38	8	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	26	AA MLE	2 teams	—	376	347	69	10	0	14	24	140	2	2	0	199	254	349	603	150	277	37	6	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	27	MLB MLE	OAK	2%	380	347	65	12	1	11	26	133	4	4	1	188	253	321	574	133	264	35	7	258	61	-18	+0	+0	+1	+8	-0.3
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	27	MLB CTX	OAK	2%	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	193	257	328	585	135	273	40	0	263	61	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	OAK	27%	333	304	57	10	1	9	23	115	3	2	0	189	254	321	575	132	265	35	7	259	61	-15	+0	-1	+1	+7	-0.7
2028	28	MLB CTX	OAK	27%	89	82	15	3	0	2	6	31	1	1	0	194	259	328	586	134	274	35	7	263	61	-4	+0	-0	+0	+2	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	89	82	15	3	0	2	6	31	1	1	0	183	247	293	540	110	265	35	7	263	54	-4	+0	-0	+0	+2	-0.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	599	110	22	0	15	44	226	7	7	0	184	248	295	543	112	265	35	7	263	54	-30	+1	-1	+2	+14	-1.4
Career	—	MLE		—	1982	1797	324	56	7	52	136	700	28	18	1	180	249	306	555	126	256	35	7	247	54	-27	+1	-1	+2	+13	-1.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	589	106	18	2	17	45	230	9	6	0	180	249	304	553	124	256	35	7	247	54	-30	+1	-1	+2	+14	-1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Luke Mann (OGILVIE)	27	30	45	45	50	186/251/318	132	264	7	2	35%	7%	61	-0.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Patrick Dorrian 2023 · AAA	27	37→38	48→50	48→45	42	193/264/333	141	287	16	6	37%	8%	68	-1.0	193/257/322	129	289	15	7	37%	7%	63	-1.4	176/241/298	122	260	15	5	37%	7%	49	-1.4
✕Tristan Gray 2023 · AAA	27	35→36	52→50	45→40	34	193/240/350	158	269	21	5	37%	5%	63	-1.3	193/248/342	149	268	18	4	34%	6%	64	-1.3	197/252/324	127	261	14	3	29%	6%	61	-1.0
✕Colt Morton 2009 · MLB	27	37	46→50	47→30	41	192/258/319	128	270	14	4	33%	7%	63	-1.4	202/257/334	132	277	15	7	31%	6%	65	-1.2	161/211/333	171	188	22	0	29%	5%	46	-0.5
✕Erik Ostberg 2023 · AA	27	39	49→50	46→45	41	202/264/342	140	286	17	6	35%	8%	70	-0.8	205/260/335	130	284	14	9	31%	7%	67	-1.1	168/213/304	136	218	14	6	30%	5%	40	-0.8
✕Craig Dedelow 2022 · AA	27	35	47→50	44→45	36	184/239/318	134	278	15	5	39%	6%	55	-1.9	186/258/330	144	325	17	11	45%	8%	65	-1.2	157/239/305	148	280	19	14	48%	8%	51	-2.1
✕Connor Hoover 2023 · AA	27	33→29	46→45	50	44	177/252/305	128	250	14	12	34%	9%	57	-1.8	191/267/316	125	270	14	12	33%	8%	65	-1.2	158/246/282	125	211	17	12	33%	9%	49	-1.2
✕Cole Cummings 2024 · AA	26	39→37	47→45	48→45	43	198/277/328	130	276	15	5	32%	8%	72	-0.7	193/260/301	108	308	11	8	38%	7%	59	-1.6	167/236/260	93	283	9	9	41%	7%	40	-2.6
✕Aaron Shackelford 2023 · AAA	26	33→32	51→50	50→45	36	185/239/342	157	266	20	8	38%	6%	61	-1.5	190/257/325	135	287	15	10	37%	7%	64	-1.3	166/255/281	116	248	12	10	36%	9%	52	-1.5
✕Davis Wendzel 2023 · AAA	26	36→32	48→50	43→40	42	193/258/328	135	252	17	5	31%	7%	65	-1.2	199/277/337	138	247	17	5	26%	8%	75	-0.5	194/271/323	128	229	14	4	22%	7%	67	-0.6
✕Jake Lowery 2017 · AA	27	37	42→45	47→30	44	185/253/290	105	260	9	5	32%	8%	54	-2.0	194/264/295	101	308	9	6	37%	9%	59	-1.6	125/202/184	59	253	4	0	48%	9%	10	-1.2
✕Caleb Hamilton 2022 · AAA	27	36	44→45	47→45	44	181/259/292	111	272	12	9	36%	9%	57	-1.8	177/261/302	125	271	15	6	38%	10%	61	-1.5	140/232/254	115	204	16	3	39%	10%	37	-1.0
✕Camden Duzenack 2022 · AAA	27	37→36	48→50	51→50	35	198/244/333	135	278	17	9	35%	5%	60	-1.6	220/268/348	128	280	13	11	26%	5%	73	-0.6	218/269/343	125	269	13	10	23%	5%	69	-0.5
✕Bret Boswell 2022 · AA	27	40→42	45	43→45	37	203/255/324	121	295	13	9	35%	6%	62	-1.4	198/268/320	122	299	12	9	35%	8%	67	-1.1	174/249/292	118	260	12	7	36%	9%	50	-1.1
✕Cade Bunnell 2024 · AA	27	37→39	48→50	48→45	42	179/268/320	142	321	17	7	46%	10%	68	-1.0	170/251/277	107	315	11	7	45%	9%	51	-2.3	131/219/208	77	250	7	5	46%	10%	21	-1.9
✕Will Robertson 2024 · AA	26	37→41	50	45	39	198/255/352	154	274	17	7	34%	6%	70	-0.9	201/266/344	143	287	16	5	34%	7%	72	-0.7	195/264/336	141	278	16	2	34%	7%	67	-0.8
✕Adam Calderone 2011 · AAA	27	40→41	47→50	45	39	206/251/349	143	262	14	9	28%	5%	66	-1.1	205/251/330	125	268	12	12	27%	5%	61	-1.5	162/194/257	95	204	5	16	23%	4%	20	-1.0
✕Rhett Wiseman 2021 · AA	27	37→44	49→50	46→45	37	195/254/338	144	289	17	8	38%	6%	65	-1.2	197/247/313	116	324	12	7	41%	5%	57	-1.8	169/215/277	108	284	12	3	43%	4%	34	-1.8
✕Ben Rortvedt 2024 · MLB	26	40	47→45	48→40	45	204/280/337	132	279	16	5	32%	8%	76	-0.4	208/285/307	99	283	10	5	28%	9%	70	-0.8	197/273/278	81	269	8	3	28%	8%	59	-0.8
✕Mark Contreras 2022 · AAA	27	39	48→50	50→55	38	199/265/343	144	291	15	15	36%	6%	72	-0.7	200/262/324	124	290	14	24	34%	6%	65	-1.2	188/253/294	106	272	12	30	34%	6%	52	-1.5
✕Neil Medchill 2013 · AA	26	38→28	48→45	47→45	35	193/248/328	136	313	16	6	42%	6%	61	-1.5	213/267/322	109	343	11	8	38%	6%	66	-1.1	208/264/289	81	338	9	5	39%	6%	55	-0.8