Nick Biddison
RF Jersey Shore BlueClaws| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 24 | A+LAD | 306 | .220/.353/.358 | 7 | 21 | 54 | — | .175/.278/.276 |
| 2025 | 25 | AA/A+2 orgs | 133 | .209/.328/.327 | 3 | 10 | 35 | — | .161/.252/.237 |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA/AA/A+PHI | 413 | .254/.370/.382 | 7 | 22 | 55 | — | .194/.275/.288 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 27 | MLBPHI | 1 | .190/.270/.288 | 0 | 0 | 59 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ26% MLB | 28 | MLBPHI | 58 | .191/.271/.290 | 1 | 2 | 59 | -0.2 |
Tools · ContractCON 29 / POW 37
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 22 | A | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | — | 143 | 123 | 34 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 32 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 276 | 373 | 455 | 829 | 179 | 341 | 22 | 11 | 367 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Great Lakes Loons | — | 103 | 89 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 36 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 169 | 275 | 247 | 522 | 79 | 264 | 35 | 7 | 248 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | — | 277 | 242 | 58 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 29 | 92 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 240 | 336 | 368 | 704 | 128 | 357 | 33 | 10 | 321 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ | Great Lakes Loons | — | 306 | 254 | 56 | 10 | 2 | 7 | 40 | 81 | 12 | 21 | 2 | 220 | 353 | 358 | 711 | 138 | 295 | 26 | 13 | 330 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | — | 36 | 33 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 273 | 333 | 485 | 818 | 212 | 389 | 36 | 6 | 361 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | A+ | Jersey Shore BlueClaws | — | 97 | 77 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 25 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 182 | 326 | 260 | 586 | 78 | 250 | 26 | 11 | 279 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | — | 24 | 19 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 211 | 348 | 211 | 558 | 250 | 12 | 12 | 269 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2026 | 26 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 39 | 31 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 97 | 263 | 226 | 489 | 129 | 125 | 38 | 13 | 237 | 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | A+ | Jersey Shore BlueClaws | — | 350 | 296 | 81 | 16 | 3 | 6 | 47 | 86 | 6 | 20 | 9 | 274 | 383 | 409 | 792 | 135 | 368 | 25 | 13 | 359 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 22 | A MLE | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | — | 143 | 129 | 26 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 47 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 202 | 275 | 302 | 577 | 101 | 299 | 33 | 7 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ MLE | Great Lakes Loons | — | 103 | 91 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 46 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 132 | 225 | 198 | 423 | 66 | 235 | 45 | 5 | 190 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A MLE | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | — | 277 | 251 | 43 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 20 | 129 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 171 | 249 | 247 | 496 | 76 | 327 | 47 | 7 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ MLE | Great Lakes Loons | — | 306 | 268 | 47 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 26 | 104 | 12 | 21 | 2 | 175 | 278 | 276 | 554 | 101 | 257 | 34 | 8 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA MLE | Tulsa Drillers | — | 36 | 34 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 206 | 250 | 324 | 574 | 118 | 356 | 44 | 3 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | A+ MLE | Jersey Shore BlueClaws | — | 97 | 83 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 33 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 145 | 253 | 205 | 457 | 60 | 199 | 34 | 6 | 201 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA MLE | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | — | 24 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 200 | 304 | 200 | 504 | 237 | 17 | 8 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2026 | 26 | AA MLE | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 39 | 33 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 91 | 211 | 212 | 423 | 121 | 111 | 46 | 8 | 183 | 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | A+ MLE | Jersey Shore BlueClaws | — | 350 | 317 | 65 | 12 | 2 | 5 | 27 | 113 | 6 | 20 | 9 | 205 | 280 | 303 | 583 | 98 | 297 | 32 | 8 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A MLE | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | — | 143 | 129 | 26 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 47 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 202 | 275 | 302 | 577 | 101 | 296 | 33 | 7 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A RAW | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | — | 143 | 123 | 34 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 32 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 276 | 373 | 455 | 829 | 179 | 341 | 22 | 11 | 367 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 380 | 342 | 55 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 25 | 174 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 161 | 243 | 234 | 477 | 73 | 305 | 46 | 7 | 218 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 380 | 331 | 73 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 36 | 128 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 221 | 319 | 335 | 655 | 115 | 332 | 34 | 9 | 301 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ MLE | Great Lakes Loons | — | 306 | 268 | 47 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 26 | 104 | 12 | 21 | 2 | 175 | 278 | 276 | 554 | 101 | 264 | 34 | 8 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ RAW | Great Lakes Loons | — | 306 | 254 | 56 | 10 | 2 | 7 | 40 | 81 | 12 | 21 | 2 | 220 | 353 | 358 | 711 | 138 | 295 | 26 | 13 | 330 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 133 | 117 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 49 | 7 | 10 | 2 | 162 | 252 | 239 | 491 | 77 | 254 | 37 | 5 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 133 | 110 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 38 | 7 | 10 | 2 | 209 | 328 | 327 | 656 | 118 | 286 | 29 | 10 | 301 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 413 | 370 | 72 | 13 | 2 | 6 | 32 | 135 | 9 | 22 | 10 | 195 | 275 | 289 | 564 | 95 | 287 | 33 | 8 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 413 | 346 | 88 | 17 | 3 | 7 | 55 | 104 | 9 | 22 | 10 | 254 | 370 | 382 | 751 | 127 | 343 | 25 | 13 | 342 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A MLE | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | — | 143 | 129 | 26 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 47 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 202 | 275 | 302 | 577 | 101 | 299 | 33 | 7 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 380 | 340 | 55 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 25 | 174 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 162 | 243 | 235 | 478 | 74 | 302 | 46 | 7 | 218 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ MLE | Great Lakes Loons | — | 306 | 265 | 47 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 26 | 104 | 12 | 21 | 2 | 177 | 278 | 279 | 557 | 102 | 257 | 34 | 8 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 133 | 118 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 49 | 7 | 10 | 2 | 161 | 252 | 237 | 489 | 76 | 241 | 37 | 5 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 413 | 369 | 72 | 13 | 2 | 6 | 32 | 135 | 9 | 22 | 10 | 195 | 275 | 290 | 565 | 95 | 276 | 33 | 8 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 24 | A+ MLE | Great Lakes Loons | — | 306 | 265 | 47 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 26 | 104 | 12 | 21 | 2 | 177 | 278 | 279 | 557 | 102 | 257 | 34 | 8 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 133 | 118 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 49 | 7 | 10 | 2 | 161 | 252 | 237 | 489 | 76 | 241 | 37 | 5 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 413 | 369 | 72 | 13 | 2 | 6 | 32 | 135 | 9 | 22 | 10 | 195 | 275 | 290 | 565 | 95 | 276 | 33 | 8 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB MLE | PHI | 0% | 380 | 340 | 65 | 12 | 2 | 6 | 29 | 120 | 8 | 13 | 4 | 189 | 269 | 284 | 554 | 95 | 269 | 32 | 8 | 255 | 59 | -19 | +1 | +0 | -4 | +8 | -0.5 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB CTX | PHI | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 190 | 270 | 288 | 559 | 98 | 269 | 0 | 0 | 257 | 59 | -0 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 28 | MLB MLE | PHI | 26% | 222 | 198 | 37 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 69 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 190 | 270 | 286 | 555 | 96 | 269 | 31 | 8 | 255 | 59 | -11 | +1 | -1 | -2 | +5 | -0.9 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB CTX | PHI | 26% | 58 | 53 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 191 | 271 | 290 | 560 | 99 | 269 | 31 | 7 | 257 | 59 | -3 | +0 | -0 | -1 | +1 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 58 | 53 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 189 | 259 | 283 | 542 | 94 | 265 | 31 | 7 | 257 | 51 | -3 | +0 | -0 | -1 | +1 | -0.2 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 594 | 111 | 22 | 0 | 11 | 45 | 202 | 11 | 22 | 11 | 187 | 257 | 279 | 536 | 93 | 262 | 31 | 7 | 257 | 51 | -32 | +0 | -2 | -7 | +14 | -2.7 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1752 | 1563 | 282 | 47 | 9 | 25 | 129 | 627 | 51 | 76 | 22 | 180 | 265 | 270 | 535 | 90 | 280 | 36 | 7 | 243 | 51 | -18 | +1 | -1 | -4 | +8 | -1.5 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 580 | 104 | 17 | 3 | 9 | 48 | 233 | 19 | 28 | 8 | 179 | 264 | 266 | 530 | 86 | 279 | 36 | 7 | 243 | 51 | -32 | +1 | -1 | -7 | +14 | -2.5 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 A+Jersey Shore BlueClaws · 350 PAwOBA .350 → .259 (−91)K% 24.6% → 32.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.57% | ÷1.000 | ×1.310 | — | — | 32.19% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.14% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.968 | 7.63% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.71% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.968 | 1.28% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.870 | ×0.987 | ×0.968 | 22.16% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.62% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | ×0.987 | ×0.968 | 5.68% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.43% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | ×0.987 | ×0.968 | 1.16% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.86% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.968 | 2.43% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 22.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.987.
Result: wOBA .350 → .259; ISO .135 → .107; BABIP .368 → .297. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AAReading Fightin Phils · 39 PAwOBA .237 → .183 (−55)K% 38.5% → 46.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 38.46% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 46.92% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.82% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 8.87% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.13% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 4.31% |
| Singles /BIP | 6.25% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | — | ×0.988 | 5.99% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.25% | ÷1.000 | ×0.860 | — | ×0.988 | 5.31% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.950 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.25% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 4.82% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .237 → .183; ISO .129 → .099; BABIP .125 → .111. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 24 PAwOBA .263 → .240 (−23)K% 12.5% → 15.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.50% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 15.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.50% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 8.78% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.17% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 3.99% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.018 | 23.67% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .263 → .240; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .250 → .237. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Jersey Shore BlueClaws · 97 PAwOBA .276 → .201 (−75)K% 25.8% → 33.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.77% | ÷1.002 | ×1.310 | — | — | 33.68% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.34% | ÷1.093 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.978 | 6.09% |
| HBP% /PA | 6.19% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.978 | 4.66% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.23% | ÷0.966 | ×0.870 | ×0.950 | ×0.978 | 16.09% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.77% | ÷1.073 | ×0.780 | ×0.950 | ×0.978 | 3.90% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×0.950 | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.92% | ÷1.045 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.978 | 1.58% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 93, 2B 115, 3B 130, K 100, BB 119 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .276 → .201; ISO .078 → .061; BABIP .250 → .199. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AATulsa Drillers · 36 PAwOBA .351 → .273 (−78)K% 36.1% → 44.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 36.11% | ÷0.984 | ×1.220 | — | — | 44.79% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.56% | ÷1.061 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 3.66% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.78% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.998 | 2.41% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.00% | ÷0.968 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.998 | 28.45% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.00% | ÷1.014 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.998 | 4.13% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.137 | ×0.940 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 10.00% | ÷0.957 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 8.34% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 94, 2B 103, 3B 127, K 97, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .351 → .273; ISO .212 → .156; BABIP .389 → .356. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Great Lakes Loons · 306 PAwOBA .320 → .248 (−72)K% 26.5% → 34.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.47% | ÷0.990 | ×1.270 | — | — | 33.96% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.75% | ÷1.037 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 8.63% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.92% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.988 | 3.06% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.39% | ÷1.004 | ×0.920 | ×0.986 | ×0.988 | 19.09% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.78% | ÷0.950 | ×0.810 | ×0.986 | ×0.988 | 4.80% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.16% | ÷0.948 | ×0.850 | ×0.986 | ×0.988 | 1.01% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.05% | ÷1.036 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 3.09% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 101, 2B 90, 3B 90, K 98, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.986.
Result: wOBA .320 → .248; ISO .138 → .105; BABIP .295 → .257. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ARancho Cucamonga Quakes · 277 PAwOBA .313 → .228 (−85)K% 33.2% → 46.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 33.21% | ÷0.973 | ×1.360 | — | — | 46.42% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.47% | ÷0.976 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.990 | 7.33% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.17% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.990 | 1.67% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.33% | ÷0.955 | ×0.920 | ×0.978 | ×0.990 | 27.37% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.67% | ÷0.990 | ×0.830 | ×0.978 | ×0.990 | 2.16% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.910 | ×0.978 | ×0.990 | 1.96% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.67% | ÷1.025 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.990 | 3.61% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 91, 2B 98, 3B 80, K 95, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.978.
Result: wOBA .313 → .228; ISO .128 → .086; BABIP .357 → .327. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Great Lakes Loons · 103 PAwOBA .245 → .190 (−55)K% 35.0% → 44.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 34.95% | ÷1.004 | ×1.270 | — | — | 44.20% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.80% | ÷0.992 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 4.86% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.83% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.998 | 4.59% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.87% | ÷0.975 | ×0.920 | ×0.993 | ×0.998 | 17.65% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.55% | ÷1.011 | ×0.810 | ×0.993 | ×0.998 | 5.99% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.997 | ×0.850 | ×0.993 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.89% | ÷0.951 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 1.58% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 95, 2B 102, 3B 99, K 101, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.993.
Result: wOBA .245 → .190; ISO .079 → .058; BABIP .264 → .235. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).