Connor Pavolony

C Norfolk Tides

Age 27 R/R 6'0" / 195 lbs AAA HR +9% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

Overview

AAAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

ETA2030MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	24	AAABAL	45	.297/.409/.459	0	0	110	—	.256/.341/.385
2024	24	AABowie Baysox	210	.147/.249/.217	3	1	-4	—	.115/.191/.162
2025	25	AAABAL	40	.162/.225/.189	0	0	-3	—	.158/.200/.184
2027PROJ10% MLB	27	MLBBAL	17	.214/.281/.333	0	0	71	0.0
2028PROJ31% MLB	28	MLBBAL	80	.214/.281/.333	2	1	70	0.0
2029PROJ40% MLB	29	MLBBAL	118	.213/.280/.330	2	1	70	0.0

Next 3 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Ext$0.9M2032Ext$3M2033Ext$5M2034Ext$7M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2025 AAA

Chase%61

Speed30

Whiff%29

Max EV20

K%20

Z-Con%16

CompsAndrés Alvarez (age 27) · Stevie Berman (age 28) · Quincy McAfee (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†71

AVG/OBP/SLG.214 / .281 / .333

PA17

HR0

K%29

BB%6

BABIP283

ISO62

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$2M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	21	A	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	74	55	9	3	0	1	18	17	0	2	0	164	370	273	643	109	211	23	24	311	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	ROK	FCL Orioles Orange	—	16	15	2	1	0	0	1	7	0	1	0	133	188	200	388	67	250	44	6	180	-52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A+	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	220	173	34	5	2	5	38	64	6	1	1	197	358	335	693	139	274	29	17	322	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AA	Bowie Baysox	—	73	67	11	2	0	1	4	26	2	1	0	164	233	239	472	75	250	36	5	221	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	ROK	FCL Orioles	—	20	13	1	0	0	0	6	6	1	0	0	77	400	77	477		143	30	30	291	5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	INTL	Mesa Solar Sox	—	51	44	6	1	0	1	6	19	0	1	0	136	240	227	467	91	200	37	12	219	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	45	37	11	6	0	0	7	11	0	0	0	297	409	459	869	162	423	24	16	380	110	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AA	Bowie Baysox	—	210	184	27	4	0	3	22	68	3	1	0	147	249	217	466	71	212	32	10	224	-4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	40	37	6	1	0	0	2	12	1	0	0	162	225	189	414	27	240	30	5	198	-3	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	21	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	74	61	8	2	0	1	12	22	0	2	0	131	274	213	487	82	182	30	16	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles Orange	—	16	15	1	0	0	0	1	10	0	1	0	67	125	67	192		188	62	6	92	-52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A+ MLE	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	220	188	29	4	2	4	24	85	6	1	1	154	271	261	531	106	236	39	11	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AA MLE	Bowie Baysox	—	73	68	9	1	0	1	3	32	2	1	0	132	192	191	383	59	240	44	4	170	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	—	20	16	1	0	0	0	3	9	1	0	0	62	250	62	312		109	45	15	175	5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	45	39	10	5	0	0	5	12	0	0	0	256	341	385	726	128	389	27	11	331	110	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Bowie Baysox	—	210	191	22	3	0	2	15	85	3	1	0	115	191	162	354	47	187	40	7	162	-4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	40	38	6	1	0	0	1	15	1	0	0	158	200	184	384	26	232	38	2	164	-3	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	90	76	9	3	0	1	13	33	0	3	0	118	247	197	445	79	186	37	14	210	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	A RAW	2 teams	—	90	70	11	4	0	1	19	24	0	3	0	157	337	257	594	100	217	27	21	288	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A+ MLE	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	220	188	29	4	2	4	24	85	6	1	1	154	271	261	531	106	248	39	11	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A+ RAW	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	220	173	34	5	2	5	38	64	6	1	1	197	358	335	693	139	274	29	17	322	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AA MLE	3 teams	—	144	130	15	2	0	1	10	63	3	2	0	115	196	154	350	38	209	44	7	171	2	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AA RAW	3 teams	—	144	124	18	3	0	2	16	51	3	2	0	145	259	218	476	73	222	35	11	230	2	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	255	230	32	8	0	2	20	98	3	1	0	139	217	200	417	61	231	38	8	192	16	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AA RAW	2 teams	—	255	221	38	10	0	3	29	79	3	1	0	172	277	258	535	86	252	31	11	252	16	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	40	38	6	1	0	0	1	15	1	0	0	158	200	184	384	26	261	38	2	164	-3	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AAA RAW	Norfolk Tides	—	40	37	6	1	0	0	2	12	1	0	0	162	225	189	414	27	240	30	5	198	-3	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	90	77	9	3	0	1	13	33	0	3	0	117	247	195	442	78	183	37	14	210	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A+ MLE	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	220	188	29	4	2	4	24	85	6	1	1	154	271	261	531	106	236	39	11	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AA MLE	3 teams	—	144	130	15	2	0	1	10	63	3	2	0	115	196	154	350	38	212	44	7	171	2	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	255	230	32	8	0	2	20	98	3	1	0	139	217	200	417	61	223	38	8	192	16	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	40	38	6	1	0	0	1	15	1	0	0	158	200	184	384	26	232	38	2	164	-3	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	255	230	32	8	0	2	20	98	3	1	0	139	217	200	417	61	223	38	8	192	16	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	40	38	6	1	0	0	1	15	1	0	0	158	200	184	384	26	232	38	2	164	-3	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	27	MLB MLE	BAL	10%	200	181	39	8	1	4	15	56	2	3	1	211	278	326	604	115	279	28	8	272	71	-7	+0	+0	+4	+4	0.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	27	MLB CTX	BAL	10%	17	16	3	1	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	214	281	333	614	119	283	29	6	277	71	-1	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	BAL	31%	259	235	50	10	1	5	19	72	3	4	1	211	278	325	603	114	278	28	7	272	70	-9	+0	-1	+5	+6	0.1
2029	29	MLB MLE	BAL	40%	299	272	57	11	1	6	22	83	3	3	1	210	277	323	600	113	278	28	7	271	70	-11	+0	-1	+5	+6	-0.0
2030	30	MLB MLE	BAL	45%	325	295	61	12	1	6	24	90	3	2	1	209	276	319	595	111	276	28	7	269	68	-12	+0	-2	+6	+7	-0.2
2028	28	MLB CTX	BAL	31%	80	73	15	3	0	2	6	22	1	1	0	214	281	333	614	118	283	28	8	277	70	-3	+0	-0	+1	+2	0.0
2029	29	MLB CTX	BAL	40%	118	107	23	5	1	2	9	33	1	1	0	213	280	330	611	117	282	28	8	275	70	-4	+0	-1	+2	+3	0.0
2030	30	MLB CTX	BAL	45%	145	131	29	6	1	3	11	40	2	1	0	212	279	327	606	115	280	28	8	273	68	-5	+0	-1	+3	+3	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	343	311	67	14	2	7	26	95	4	3	0	215	284	341	625	125	284	28	8	275	50	-13	+1	-2	+6	+7	-0.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	589	127	27	4	13	49	180	8	6	0	216	285	341	626	126	285	28	8	275	50	-24	+1	-3	+12	+14	-0.0
Career	—	MLE		—	1802	1618	291	57	6	28	145	586	24	19	5	180	257	274	532	95	260	33	8	243	50	-38	+1	-4	+19	+23	0.0
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	584	105	21	2	10	52	211	9	7	2	180	257	274	531	94	260	32	8	243	50	-24	+0	-3	+12	+14	0.0

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jacob Stallingslast yr '25 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,850 PA	2.8	1,850	33	0	229	310	340	+33	+50	10.3	10.3
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+17.9	3.7	pk7: 10
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#3Gabby Street'04-'31 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,677 PA	2.5	1,677	2	17	210*	281*	325*	+30	+0	3.1	3.3
/162	664	1	7	+11.8	+0.0	1.2	pk7: 3
#4Malachi Kittridge'01-'06 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,664 PA	2.5	1,664	4	11	219*	281*	319*	+30	+0	1.3	1.3
/162	664	2	4	+11.9	+0.0	0.5	pk7: 1
#5Chad Moeller'00-'10 * career totals — 10 seasons, 1,539 PA	2.3	1,539	29	2	218*	277*	341*	+27	-0	-0.2	1.0
/162	664	13	1	+11.6	-0.1	-0.1	pk7: 2
#6Sam Agnew'13-'19 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,711 PA	2.6	1,711	2	29	204*	262*	314*	+31	+0	0.5	0.5
/162	664	1	11	+11.9	+0.0	0.2	pk7: 0
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	0.5	360	7	4	211	275	324	+6	+4	0.3	0.3
/162	664	12	7	+11.9	+7.4	0.6	pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Connor Pavolony (OGILVIE)	27	—	—	—	—	209/276/323	114	279	3	3	28%	7%	71	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Andrés Alvarez 2024 · AA	27	37→32	45	51→50	42	191/256/309	118	267	13	13	33%	7%	59	-1.6	214/278/326	112	303	11	11	31%	7%	71	-0.8	220/290/326	106	314	9	12	31%	8%	72	-0.3
✕Stevie Berman 2023 · AAA	28	39	45	48→40	48	196/284/317	121	252	12	5	26%	9%	73	-0.6	215/295/329	114	287	12	7	27%	9%	79	-0.2	193/288/250	57	260	7	0	26%	11%	57	-0.4
✕Quincy McAfee 2024 · AA	26	38	46→45	46→45	46	196/281/327	130	253	13	9	27%	8%	74	-0.5	203/272/330	127	250	14	11	24%	6%	71	-0.8	170/237/280	109	197	14	12	22%	5%	43	-1.3
✕William Simoneit 2024 · AAA	27	43	44→45	48→45	43	211/286/328	116	300	11	6	32%	8%	76	-0.4	194/259/307	113	315	11	6	39%	6%	60	-1.6	165/229/267	102	285	10	2	43%	6%	38	-1.0
✕Gavin Collins 2022 · AAA	27	40	43→45	44→40	44	203/272/310	107	257	12	6	25%	7%	66	-1.1	215/285/332	117	272	13	6	25%	7%	76	-0.4	200/262/293	93	232	10	3	18%	6%	56	-0.7
✕Grae Kessinger 2024 · MLB	26	40→30	45	46→50	48	204/282/322	118	264	14	13	28%	9%	73	-0.6	200/274/299	99	273	9	11	28%	9%	64	-1.3	159/229/234	75	220	6	10	29%	7%	30	-1.6
✕Renae Martinez 2021 · AA	27	40→31	42→45	44→40	43	201/263/302	101	269	10	4	28%	7%	60	-1.6	199/267/315	116	304	11	8	36%	8%	65	-1.2	148/227/275	126	230	13	6	39%	8%	38	-0.8
✕Maverick Handley 2024 · AAA	26	42	42→40	50	47	203/297/306	103	287	10	13	31%	9%	75	-0.5	206/294/291	85	286	6	10	27%	9%	70	-0.8	194/286/264	70	270	4	8	27%	9%	60	-0.6
✕Brian Serven 2022 · AAA	27	36	49→50	47→30	39	196/249/341	145	242	18	5	28%	5%	65	-1.2	199/261/319	120	261	14	4	28%	7%	63	-1.3	212/290/326	114	302	11	1	31%	8%	74	-0.3
✕Ryan Ortiz 2014 · AAA	26	40	43→45	45→40	47	198/278/307	109	265	11	4	28%	9%	68	-1.0	206/297/296	90	291	7	5	29%	10%	72	-0.7	185/302/243	58	271	3	0	28%	13%	60	-0.8
✕Joe DeCarlo 2021 · AA	27	40→38	42→50	47→30	40	197/265/297	100	289	10	5	34%	7%	60	-1.6	200/259/291	91	299	9	7	34%	7%	56	-1.9	160/219/212	52	241	7	0	35%	7%	21	-1.4
✕Dominic Miroglio 2022 · AA	27	42	44→45	43→40	43	209/272/326	117	281	11	5	29%	7%	69	-0.9	220/287/360	140	261	14	6	21%	8%	83	+0.1	209/274/376	167	219	18	2	15%	7%	78	-0.1
✕Colt Morton 2009 · MLB	27	37	46→50	47→30	41	192/258/319	128	270	14	4	33%	7%	63	-1.4	202/257/334	132	277	15	7	31%	6%	65	-1.2	161/211/333	171	188	22	0	29%	5%	46	-0.5
✕Bennett Hostetler 2024 · AA	26	40→38	46→45	49→45	41	204/273/333	129	270	15	7	30%	6%	72	-0.7	198/259/308	110	300	10	13	36%	6%	61	-1.5	174/231/238	64	301	2	19	40%	5%	32	-1.1
✕Willie MacIver 2024 · AAA	27	42→35	44→50	51→55	44	204/282/321	118	298	12	17	34%	8%	72	-0.7	234/302/366	132	319	12	14	29%	7%	89	+0.5	233/299/367	133	313	13	12	28%	7%	87	+0.2
✕Grayson Greiner 2020 · MLB	27	42	44→45	45→30	45	211/276/327	115	281	12	3	29%	8%	71	-0.8	202/265/319	117	311	13	4	37%	7%	65	-1.2	182/246/266	84	328	9	1	44%	7%	44	-0.9
✕Camden Duzenack 2022 · AAA	27	37→36	48→50	51→50	35	198/244/333	135	278	17	9	35%	5%	60	-1.6	220/268/348	128	280	13	11	26%	5%	73	-0.6	218/269/343	125	269	13	10	23%	5%	69	-0.5
✕Ryan Jorgensen 2007 · AAA	28	38	44→45	48→30	44	197/263/310	113	259	13	6	29%	7%	62	-1.4	213/262/331	118	273	13	5	26%	6%	66	-1.1	208/251/320	112	263	12	1	25%	5%	57	-0.8
✕David Sheaffer 2022 · AAA	27	43	42→50	49→40	39	214/258/321	107	293	10	6	30%	5%	62	-1.4	198/250/294	96	289	8	7	32%	6%	53	-2.1	140/193/216	76	211	6	0	35%	5%	12	-1.3
✕JJ Schwarz 2022 · AA	26	40	43→45	47→30	45	201/266/307	106	274	11	4	30%	8%	62	-1.4	217/284/338	121	301	14	4	30%	8%	76	-0.4	209/280/326	117	287	14	1	31%	9%	70	-0.5

Connor Pavolony

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps