Patrick Winkel — OGILVIE

Patrick WinkelC New Hampshire Fisher Cats

Age 26 L/R 6'1" / 200 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 ROS PROJECTION124 act + 17 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†58

AVG/OBP/SLG.188 / .235 / .250

PA17

HR0

K%35

BB%6

BABIP304

ISO62

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$2M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 55

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT35

scouting grade only

POWER55

scouting grade only

EYE35

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.6M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	21	A	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	84	70	17	5	0	1	13	22	1	0	0	243	369	357	726	114	340	26	15	336	114	+1	+0	—	—	+2	0.3
2022	22	A+	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	221	197	50	9	0	6	23	62	0	1	0	254	332	391	723	137	338	28	10	325	106	+2	+0	—	—	+5	0.7
2023	23	AA	Wichita Wind Surge	—	356	304	81	16	1	10	45	86	3	3	1	266	366	424	791	158	335	24	13	352	125	+10	+0	—	—	+8	1.9
2024	24	AAA	St. Paul Saints	—	297	276	63	16	0	7	19	90	1	0	0	228	280	362	643	134	311	30	6	287	81	-7	+0	—	—	+6	-0.0
2025	25	AAA	St. Paul Saints	—	180	166	36	7	0	7	13	59	1	0	0	217	278	386	663	169	290	33	7	296	86	-3	+0	—	—	+4	0.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	21	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	84	74	13	4	0	1	9	31	1	0	0	176	274	270	544	95	294	37	11	250	55	-4	+0	—	—	+2	-0.3
2022	22	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	221	203	40	7	0	5	17	84	0	1	0	197	259	305	565	108	301	38	8	247	53	-12	+0	—	—	+5	-0.7
2023	23	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	—	356	317	72	15	1	6	32	103	3	3	1	227	304	338	642	110	307	29	9	288	81	-8	+0	—	—	+8	-0.0
2024	24	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	—	297	282	52	13	0	4	13	108	1	0	0	184	223	273	496	89	278	36	4	220	35	-23	+0	—	—	+6	-1.7
2025	25	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	—	180	170	30	6	0	4	9	72	1	0	0	176	222	282	505	106	273	40	5	216	32	-14	+0	—	—	+4	-1.1
2021	21	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	84	74	13	4	0	1	9	31	1	0	0	176	274	270	544	95	286	37	11	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	A RAW	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	84	70	17	5	0	1	13	22	1	0	0	243	369	357	726	114	340	26	15	336	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	221	203	40	7	0	5	17	84	0	1	0	197	259	305	565	108	304	38	8	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A+ RAW	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	221	197	50	9	0	6	23	62	0	1	0	254	332	391	723	137	338	28	10	325	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	—	356	317	72	15	1	6	32	103	3	3	1	227	304	338	642	110	311	29	9	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AA RAW	Wichita Wind Surge	—	356	304	81	16	1	10	45	86	3	3	1	266	366	424	791	158	335	24	13	352	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	—	297	282	52	13	0	4	13	108	1	0	0	184	223	273	496	89	281	36	4	220	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AAA RAW	St. Paul Saints	—	297	276	63	16	0	7	19	90	1	0	0	228	280	362	643	134	311	30	6	287	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	—	180	170	30	6	0	4	9	72	1	0	0	176	222	282	505	106	277	40	5	216	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AAA RAW	St. Paul Saints	—	180	166	36	7	0	7	13	59	1	0	0	217	278	386	663	169	290	33	7	296	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	84	74	13	4	0	1	9	31	1	0	0	176	274	270	544	95	294	37	11	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	221	202	40	7	0	5	17	84	0	1	0	198	259	307	566	109	301	38	8	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	—	356	318	72	15	1	6	32	103	3	3	1	226	304	336	640	110	307	29	9	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	—	297	281	52	13	0	4	13	108	1	0	0	185	223	274	497	89	278	36	4	220	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	—	180	168	30	6	0	4	9	72	1	0	0	179	222	286	508	107	273	40	5	216	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	23	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	—	356	318	72	15	1	6	32	103	3	3	1	226	304	336	640	110	307	29	9	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	—	297	281	52	13	0	4	13	108	1	0	0	185	223	274	497	89	278	36	4	220	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	—	180	168	30	6	0	4	9	72	1	0	0	179	222	286	508	107	273	40	5	216	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	26	AA MLE	TOR	—	124	115	23	6	0	2	8	48	0	0	1	200	252	304	556	104	318	39	6	241	49	-7	-0	+0	+2	+3	-0.3
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	AA RAW	TOR	—	124	112	27	7	0	3	11	39	0	0	1	241	309	384	693	143	338	31	9	309	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	26	AA MLE	TOR	2%	17	16	3	1	0	0	1	6	0	0	0	188	235	250	485	62	302	35	6	253	58	-1	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
TOT	26	AA MLE	TOR	—	141	131	26	7	0	2	9	54	0	0	1	198	250	298	548	99	316	38	6	242	50	-8	-0	+0	+3	+3	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	TOR	27%	269	249	50	11	0	5	17	91	1	1	1	201	255	305	560	104	298	34	6	259	62	-12	-0	+0	+5	+6	-0.2
2028	28	MLB MLE	TOR	40%	319	293	61	13	1	6	21	106	2	1	1	208	266	321	587	113	297	33	7	263	64	-14	-0	-1	+6	+7	-0.2
2029	29	MLB MLE	TOR	45%	338	310	65	14	1	7	23	111	2	1	1	210	269	329	598	119	296	33	7	264	65	-14	-0	-1	+6	+7	-0.2
2030	30	MLB MLE	TOR	48%	352	323	67	14	1	7	24	116	2	1	1	207	266	322	588	115	295	33	7	263	64	-15	-0	-2	+6	+8	-0.3
2027	27	MLB CTX	TOR	27%	72	67	13	3	0	1	5	24	0	0	0	194	250	284	534	90	300	33	7	257	62	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.0
2028	28	MLB CTX	TOR	40%	127	117	24	5	0	3	8	42	1	1	0	205	262	325	587	120	299	33	6	260	64	-5	+0	-0	+2	+3	-0.0
2029	29	MLB CTX	TOR	45%	151	139	28	6	0	3	10	50	1	1	0	201	260	309	569	108	297	33	7	261	65	-6	+0	-1	+3	+3	-0.1
2030	30	MLB CTX	TOR	48%	167	153	32	7	0	3	11	55	1	1	0	209	267	314	580	105	296	33	7	260	64	-7	+0	-1	+3	+4	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	517	476	97	21	0	10	34	171	3	3	0	204	261	311	572	107	292	33	7	260	59	-22	+1	-2	+9	+11	-0.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	598	122	26	0	13	43	215	4	4	0	204	262	313	575	109	291	33	7	260	59	-28	+1	-2	+12	+14	-0.4
Career	—	MLE		—	2433	2237	453	98	4	45	166	828	13	8	5	203	262	310	572	108	296	34	7	256	59	-56	-1	-4	+23	+28	-1.0
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	598	121	26	1	12	44	221	3	2	1	202	260	309	569	107	296	34	7	256	59	-28	-0	-2	+12	+14	-0.5

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#2John McDonaldlast yr '14 career totals — 13 seasons, 2,596 PA	3.9	2,596	28	34	233	273	324	+20	+54	4.2	5.1
/162	664	7	9	+5.0	+13.9	1.1	pk7: 6
#3Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#4Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	2.6	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
/162	664	18	6	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	0.8	522	10	2	208	262	322	+9	+8	0.1	0.1
/162	664	13	3	+11.9	+10.2	0.1	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Patrick Winkel (OGILVIE)	26	35	55	45	35	202/252/307	105	302	3	1	35%	6%	58	-0.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Ben Rortvedt 2023 · MLB	25	38	46→45	46→40	39	196/258/318	122	283	14	4	35%	7%	63	-1.4	207/287/317	110	285	12	5	29%	9%	74	-0.6	195/283/285	90	265	9	2	28%	9%	64	-0.6
✕Patrick Dorrian 2022 · AAA	26	40→38	47→50	47→45	42	202/270/337	135	297	15	6	36%	8%	71	-0.8	191/257/327	136	288	16	6	37%	8%	64	-1.3	171/238/297	126	254	16	5	38%	7%	47	-1.5
✕Tristan Gray 2022 · AAA	26	41→35	46→50	42→40	42	209/270/342	132	281	14	5	30%	7%	72	-0.7	186/239/339	153	263	20	4	37%	5%	61	-1.5	198/254/329	130	265	15	3	30%	6%	62	-0.9
✕Shane Matheny 2022 · AA	26	39→41	43→45	47→50	41	191/258/297	106	298	10	6	38%	8%	57	-1.8	201/284/322	121	316	13	9	37%	10%	74	-0.6	190/280/310	120	295	13	9	37%	10%	67	-0.7
✕Bruce Caldwell 2018 · AAA	26	42→45	43→45	45→40	42	205/273/311	106	304	11	4	34%	8%	66	-1.1	204/264/310	106	294	10	4	32%	7%	63	-1.4	196/255/296	100	276	10	2	31%	7%	54	-1.4
✕Colt Morton 2009 · MLB	27	38	46→50	47→30	41	194/260/321	128	274	14	4	33%	7%	64	-1.3	204/259/337	133	281	15	7	31%	6%	67	-1.1	167/218/340	174	195	23	0	29%	5%	51	-0.4
✕Eric Jagielo 2018 · AAA	26	39→36	40→45	42→30	42	190/260/275	85	269	8	2	31%	7%	53	-2.1	188/244/292	104	275	10	4	34%	6%	51	-2.3	162/209/266	104	239	11	1	36%	5%	30	-2.8
✕Jesus Flores 2012 · MLB	27	42→38	44→50	47→30	37	212/247/331	120	282	12	4	29%	4%	61	-1.5	196/231/296	100	249	10	4	25%	4%	46	-2.6	179/213/265	85	225	9	1	25%	4%	28	-1.6
✕Kellin Deglan 2018 · AA	26	37→35	45→50	42→40	32	190/237/305	115	301	14	5	41%	5%	51	-2.2	202/261/316	114	315	12	5	38%	6%	63	-1.4	178/246/286	108	276	12	2	38%	6%	48	-0.7
✕Steven Lerud 2012 · AAA	27	39→42	41→45	43→40	40	193/257/291	98	275	9	3	32%	6%	56	-1.9	204/280/293	89	301	7	4	32%	8%	65	-1.2	201/292/278	77	290	6	2	29%	9%	64	-0.4
✕Cael Brockmeyer 2018 · AAA	26	37→39	44→45	47→40	38	189/244/301	112	262	12	4	32%	5%	53	-2.1	218/276/314	96	318	9	8	32%	5%	68	-1.0	250/309/327	77	377	6	5	33%	5%	80	-0.1
✕Jake Lowery 2016 · AA	26	36	43→45	47→30	44	183/249/294	111	257	10	4	32%	8%	53	-2.1	187/258/290	103	288	9	5	35%	8%	56	-1.9	127/205/187	61	257	4	0	48%	9%	12	-1.1
✕Lou Santangelo 2009 · AAA	26	41→40	44→55	43→40	39	207/251/317	110	284	13	3	31%	6%	59	-1.7	202/252/302	100	283	10	3	30%	6%	56	-1.9	186/240/281	95	262	8	0	31%	6%	43	-1.4
✕Jakson Reetz 2022 · AAA	26	37→33	43→55	45	40	186/266/297	111	275	11	5	34%	7%	61	-1.5	202/279/375	173	264	21	5	32%	7%	84	+0.2	193/274/380	187	243	23	4	31%	7%	81	-0.0
✕Ryan Fisher 2014 · AA	26	43→45	43→45	45→40	39	207/270/324	118	302	9	5	33%	6%	68	-1.0	213/280/331	118	302	12	6	32%	6%	74	-0.6	172/246/285	114	222	18	0	31%	5%	51	-0.5
✕J.R. Hopf 2009 · AAA	26	41	40	48→40	44	198/268/286	87	297	8	4	34%	8%	59	-1.7	221/280/319	98	289	8	6	25%	7%	70	-0.8	226/277/320	94	280	7	2	21%	6%	68	-0.4
✕Jackson Cluff 2023 · AA	26	36→30	40→45	48→60	36	177/241/266	89	277	7	11	37%	6%	45	-2.7	186/269/301	115	281	11	21	35%	9%	63	-1.4	179/271/301	122	264	12	28	34%	10%	62	-0.8
✕Joe Dunand 2022 · AAA	26	39→45	43→45	47→45	37	196/254/305	109	282	11	4	34%	5%	57	-1.8	204/274/329	125	302	13	7	35%	7%	71	-0.8	198/273/323	125	290	13	6	34%	8%	66	-0.7
✕Riley Mahan 2022 · AA	26	38→42	42→45	41→40	33	188/238/289	101	306	10	4	40%	5%	48	-2.5	197/249/337	140	325	16	8	42%	6%	63	-1.3	181/234/339	158	292	19	7	43%	5%	57	-0.7
✕Jason Delay 2021 · AA	26	41	44→45	49→40	38	208/259/323	115	283	13	6	31%	5%	63	-1.3	205/253/298	93	291	7	5	30%	5%	55	-2.0	228/287/304	76	299	3	2	23%	6%	67	-0.4

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps