Patrick Winkel
C New Hampshire Fisher Cats| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 24 | AAAMIN | 297 | .228/.280/.362 | 7 | 0 | 42 | — | .192/.233/.292 |
| 2025 | 25 | AAAMIN | 180 | .217/.278/.386 | 7 | 0 | 37 | — | .182/.228/.288 |
| 2026 | 26 | AATOR | 124 | .241/.309/.384 | 3 | 0 | 49 | — | .191/.244/.287 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 27 | MLBTOR | 2 | .216/.263/.333 | 0 | 0 | 66 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ27% MLB | 28 | MLBTOR | 43 | .216/.264/.332 | 1 | 0 | 66 | -0.0 |
Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 55
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 21 | A | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 84 | 70 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 22 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 243 | 369 | 357 | 726 | 114 | 340 | 26 | 15 | 336 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 221 | 197 | 50 | 9 | 0 | 6 | 23 | 62 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 254 | 332 | 391 | 723 | 137 | 338 | 28 | 10 | 325 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 356 | 304 | 81 | 16 | 1 | 10 | 45 | 86 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 266 | 366 | 424 | 791 | 158 | 335 | 24 | 13 | 352 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA | St. Paul Saints | — | 297 | 276 | 63 | 16 | 0 | 7 | 19 | 90 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 228 | 280 | 362 | 643 | 134 | 311 | 30 | 6 | 287 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA | St. Paul Saints | — | 180 | 166 | 36 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 13 | 59 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 217 | 278 | 386 | 663 | 169 | 290 | 33 | 7 | 296 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 124 | 112 | 27 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 39 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 241 | 309 | 384 | 693 | 143 | 338 | 31 | 9 | 309 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 21 | A MLE | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 84 | 74 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 31 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 189 | 286 | 284 | 569 | 95 | 298 | 37 | 11 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ MLE | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 221 | 203 | 41 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 79 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 202 | 264 | 310 | 574 | 108 | 305 | 36 | 8 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA MLE | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 356 | 316 | 73 | 15 | 1 | 7 | 33 | 103 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 231 | 310 | 351 | 661 | 120 | 308 | 29 | 9 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA MLE | St. Paul Saints | — | 297 | 281 | 54 | 13 | 0 | 5 | 14 | 108 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 192 | 233 | 292 | 525 | 100 | 292 | 36 | 5 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA MLE | St. Paul Saints | — | 180 | 170 | 31 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 72 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 182 | 228 | 288 | 516 | 106 | 282 | 40 | 5 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AA MLE | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 124 | 115 | 22 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 48 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 191 | 244 | 287 | 531 | 96 | 303 | 39 | 6 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A MLE | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 84 | 74 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 31 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 189 | 286 | 284 | 569 | 95 | 310 | 37 | 11 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A RAW | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 84 | 70 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 22 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 243 | 369 | 357 | 726 | 114 | 340 | 26 | 15 | 336 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ MLE | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 221 | 203 | 41 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 79 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 202 | 264 | 310 | 574 | 108 | 300 | 36 | 8 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ RAW | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 221 | 197 | 50 | 9 | 0 | 6 | 23 | 62 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 254 | 332 | 391 | 723 | 137 | 338 | 28 | 10 | 325 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA MLE | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 356 | 316 | 73 | 15 | 1 | 7 | 33 | 103 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 231 | 310 | 351 | 661 | 120 | 314 | 29 | 9 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA RAW | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 356 | 304 | 81 | 16 | 1 | 10 | 45 | 86 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 266 | 366 | 424 | 791 | 158 | 335 | 24 | 13 | 352 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA MLE | St. Paul Saints | — | 297 | 281 | 54 | 13 | 0 | 5 | 14 | 108 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 192 | 233 | 292 | 525 | 100 | 290 | 36 | 5 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA RAW | St. Paul Saints | — | 297 | 276 | 63 | 16 | 0 | 7 | 19 | 90 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 228 | 280 | 362 | 643 | 134 | 311 | 30 | 6 | 287 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA MLE | St. Paul Saints | — | 180 | 170 | 31 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 72 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 182 | 228 | 288 | 516 | 106 | 287 | 40 | 5 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA RAW | St. Paul Saints | — | 180 | 166 | 36 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 13 | 59 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 217 | 278 | 386 | 663 | 169 | 290 | 33 | 7 | 296 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AA MLE | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 124 | 115 | 22 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 48 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 191 | 244 | 287 | 531 | 96 | 303 | 39 | 6 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AA RAW | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 124 | 112 | 27 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 39 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 241 | 309 | 384 | 693 | 143 | 338 | 31 | 9 | 309 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A MLE | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 84 | 74 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 31 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 189 | 286 | 284 | 569 | 95 | 298 | 37 | 11 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ MLE | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 221 | 202 | 41 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 79 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 203 | 264 | 312 | 576 | 109 | 305 | 36 | 8 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA MLE | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 356 | 317 | 73 | 15 | 1 | 7 | 33 | 103 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 230 | 310 | 350 | 660 | 120 | 308 | 29 | 9 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA MLE | St. Paul Saints | — | 297 | 280 | 54 | 13 | 0 | 5 | 14 | 108 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 193 | 233 | 293 | 526 | 100 | 292 | 36 | 5 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA MLE | St. Paul Saints | — | 180 | 168 | 31 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 72 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 185 | 228 | 292 | 519 | 107 | 282 | 40 | 5 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AA MLE | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 124 | 115 | 22 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 48 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 191 | 244 | 287 | 531 | 96 | 303 | 39 | 6 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 24 | AAA MLE | St. Paul Saints | — | 297 | 280 | 54 | 13 | 0 | 5 | 14 | 108 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 193 | 233 | 293 | 526 | 100 | 292 | 36 | 5 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA MLE | St. Paul Saints | — | 180 | 168 | 31 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 72 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 185 | 228 | 292 | 519 | 107 | 282 | 40 | 5 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AA MLE | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 124 | 115 | 22 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 48 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 191 | 244 | 287 | 531 | 96 | 303 | 39 | 6 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB MLE | TOR | 2% | 200 | 186 | 41 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 63 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 216 | 263 | 332 | 594 | 116 | 298 | 32 | 6 | 265 | 66 | -8 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +4 | 0.1 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB CTX | TOR | 2% | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 216 | 263 | 333 | 596 | 116 | 299 | 50 | 0 | 266 | 66 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 28 | MLB MLE | TOR | 27% | 161 | 150 | 32 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 50 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 215 | 263 | 331 | 594 | 116 | 297 | 31 | 6 | 266 | 66 | -7 | +0 | -1 | +3 | +3 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB CTX | TOR | 27% | 43 | 41 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 216 | 264 | 332 | 596 | 116 | 298 | 30 | 5 | 266 | 66 | -2 | +0 | -0 | +1 | +1 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 43 | 41 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 220 | 256 | 341 | 597 | 122 | 296 | 30 | 5 | 266 | 59 | -2 | +0 | -0 | +1 | +1 | -0.0 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 620 | 136 | 30 | 0 | 15 | 30 | 197 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 219 | 255 | 340 | 596 | 121 | 297 | 30 | 5 | 266 | 59 | -26 | +0 | -3 | +12 | +14 | -0.4 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1528 | 1406 | 287 | 61 | 1 | 29 | 105 | 524 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 204 | 263 | 311 | 574 | 107 | 299 | 34 | 7 | 256 | 59 | -11 | +0 | -1 | +5 | +6 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 598 | 121 | 26 | 0 | 12 | 45 | 223 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 202 | 262 | 306 | 568 | 104 | 297 | 34 | 7 | 256 | 59 | -26 | +1 | -2 | +12 | +14 | -0.2 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 124 PAwOBA .303 → .241 (−62)K% 31.5% → 38.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.45% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 38.37% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.87% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 6.14% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.29% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.978 | ×0.988 | 21.83% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.59% | ÷1.000 | ×0.860 | ×0.978 | ×0.988 | 7.97% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.950 | ×0.978 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.11% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 3.17% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.978.
Result: wOBA .303 → .241; ISO .143 → .107; BABIP .338 → .303. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAASt. Paul Saints · 180 PAwOBA .288 → .223 (−65)K% 32.8% → 39.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 32.78% | ÷0.989 | ×1.200 | — | — | 39.76% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.22% | ÷1.022 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 5.04% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.56% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 0.54% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.56% | ÷0.944 | ×0.930 | ×1.008 | ×1.033 | 21.10% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.54% | ÷0.938 | ×0.830 | ×1.008 | ×1.033 | 6.03% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×1.008 | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.54% | ÷1.253 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 3.78% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 151, 1B 89, 2B 88, 3B 100, K 98, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.008.
Result: wOBA .288 → .223; ISO .169 → .103; BABIP .290 → .282. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAASt. Paul Saints · 297 PAwOBA .280 → .230 (−51)K% 30.3% → 36.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.30% | ÷0.995 | ×1.200 | — | — | 36.54% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.40% | ÷0.985 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 4.70% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.34% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 0.33% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.51% | ÷1.010 | ×0.930 | ×1.010 | ×1.048 | 20.96% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.60% | ÷0.996 | ×0.830 | ×1.010 | ×1.048 | 7.58% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.043 | ×0.970 | ×1.010 | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.76% | ÷1.039 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.048 | 2.66% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 102, 2B 99, 3B 109, K 99, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.010.
Result: wOBA .280 → .230; ISO .134 → .098; BABIP .311 → .292. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAWichita Wind Surge · 356 PAwOBA .347 → .291 (−56)K% 24.2% → 29.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.16% | ÷1.018 | ×1.220 | — | — | 28.96% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.64% | ÷0.962 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 9.45% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.84% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.027 | 0.75% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.77% | ÷1.011 | ×0.920 | ×1.000 | ×1.027 | 23.14% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.34% | ÷0.931 | ×0.840 | ×1.000 | ×1.027 | 6.80% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.46% | ÷0.900 | ×0.940 | ×1.000 | ×1.027 | 0.49% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.59% | ÷1.231 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 3.06% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 146, 1B 102, 2B 86, 3B 80, K 104, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.000.
Result: wOBA .347 → .291; ISO .158 → .121; BABIP .335 → .308. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels · 221 PAwOBA .318 → .256 (−62)K% 28.1% → 35.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.05% | ÷0.993 | ×1.270 | — | — | 35.87% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.41% | ÷0.983 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 7.60% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.93% | ÷1.021 | ×0.920 | ×0.999 | ×1.012 | 23.61% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.67% | ÷0.912 | ×0.810 | ×0.999 | ×1.012 | 5.99% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.011 | ×0.850 | ×0.999 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.44% | ÷0.948 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 3.80% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 104, 2B 82, 3B 102, K 99, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.
Result: wOBA .318 → .256; ISO .137 → .110; BABIP .338 → .305. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels · 84 PAwOBA .329 → .254 (−75)K% 26.2% → 36.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.19% | ÷0.979 | ×1.360 | — | — | 36.37% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.48% | ÷0.976 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 11.11% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.19% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 0.94% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.92% | ÷1.066 | ×0.920 | ×0.985 | ×1.015 | 19.78% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.42% | ÷0.909 | ×0.830 | ×0.985 | ×1.015 | 9.51% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.937 | ×0.910 | ×0.985 | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.08% | ÷0.908 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 1.86% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 113, 2B 82, 3B 87, K 96, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.985.
Result: wOBA .329 → .254; ISO .114 → .093; BABIP .340 → .298. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).