Patrick Winkel — OGILVIE

Patrick WinkelC New Hampshire Fisher Cats

Age 26 L/R 6'1" / 200 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 ROS PROJECTION111 act + 85 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†53

AVG/OBP/SLG.212 / .259 / .338

PA85

HR2

K%36

BB%6

BABIP319

ISO125

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 55

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT35

scouting grade only

POWER55

scouting grade only

EYE35

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	21	A	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	84	74	13	4	0	1	9	31	1	0	0	176	274	270	544	95	286	37	11	252	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	A	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	84	70	17	5	0	1	13	22	1	0	0	243	369	357	726	114	340	26	15	336	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A+	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	221	203	40	8	0	5	17	85	0	1	0	197	259	310	569	113	307	38	8	251	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A+	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	221	197	50	9	0	6	23	62	0	1	0	254	332	391	723	137	338	28	10	325	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AA	Wichita Wind Surge	—	356	316	71	16	1	6	33	107	3	3	1	225	304	339	643	114	314	30	9	288	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AA	Wichita Wind Surge	—	356	304	81	16	1	10	45	86	3	3	1	266	366	424	791	158	335	24	13	352	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AAA	St. Paul Saints	—	297	281	52	13	0	5	14	109	1	0	0	185	226	285	511	100	280	37	5	223	29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AAA	St. Paul Saints	—	297	276	63	16	0	7	19	90	1	0	0	228	280	362	643	134	311	30	6	287	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AAA	St. Paul Saints	—	180	170	31	6	0	4	9	72	1	0	0	182	228	288	516	106	287	40	5	223	29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AAA	St. Paul Saints	—	180	166	36	7	0	7	13	59	1	0	0	217	278	386	663	169	290	33	7	296	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	26	AA	TOR	—	111	104	21	5	0	3	6	44	0	0	1	202	245	337	582	135	310	40	5	252	51	-6	-0	+0	+2	+3	-0.1
YTD	26	AA	TOR	—	111	101	26	7	0	3	9	34	0	0	1	257	318	416	734	158	354	31	8	324	106	+1	-0	+0	+2	+3	0.6
ROS	26	AA	TOR	2%	85	80	17	4	0	2	5	31	0	0	0	212	259	338	596	125	301	36	6	255	53	-4	+0	+0	+2	+2	-0.1
ROS	26	MLB	TOR	2%	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0						302	50	0	252	51	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
FULL	26	AA	TOR	—	113	106	21	5	0	3	6	45	0	0	1	198	241	330	571	132	305	40	5	252	51	-6	-0	+0	+2	+3	-0.1
TOT	26	AA	TOR	—	196	184	38	9	0	5	11	75	0	0	1	207	251	337	588	130	314	38	6	253	52	-11	-0	+0	+4	+6	-0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	27	MLB	TOR	27%	269	249	52	11	1	6	17	93	1	1	1	209	262	333	596	124	302	35	6	262	58	-13	-0	+0	+5	+8	-0.0
2028	28	MLB	TOR	40%	319	293	62	13	1	7	21	108	2	1	1	212	269	334	603	123	300	34	7	265	61	-14	-0	-1	+6	+9	-0.0
2027	27	MLB	TOR	27%	72	68	13	3	0	1	4	25	0	0	0	191	236	279	516	88	303	35	6	259	56	-4	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.0
2028	28	MLB	TOR	40%	127	117	24	5	0	3	8	43	1	1	0	205	262	325	587	120	302	34	6	262	59	-6	+0	-0	+2	+4	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	201	187	37	8	0	4	12	69	1	1	0	198	250	305	555	107	287	34	6	261	58	-10	+0	-0	+4	+6	-0.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	605	120	26	0	13	39	223	3	3	0	198	250	306	556	107	288	34	6	261	58	-31	+1	-1	+12	+18	-0.1
Career	—			—	1811	1666	338	75	3	36	125	636	9	6	3	203	262	316	579	113	301	35	7	255	54	-95	+0	-1	+32	+51	-1.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	598	121	27	1	13	45	228	3	2	1	202	262	316	578	114	300	35	7	255	54	-34	+0	-0	+12	+18	-0.4

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	21	A	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	84	70	17	5	0	1	13	22	1	0	0	243	369	357	726	114	340	26	15	336	116	+1	+0	—	—	+2	0.4
2022	22	A+	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	221	197	50	9	0	6	23	62	0	1	0	254	332	391	723	137	338	28	10	325	107	+2	+0	—	—	+6	0.8
2023	23	AA	Wichita Wind Surge	—	356	304	81	16	1	10	45	86	3	3	1	266	366	424	791	158	335	24	13	352	128	+11	+0	—	—	+10	2.2
2024	24	AAA	St. Paul Saints	—	297	276	63	16	0	7	19	90	1	0	0	228	280	362	643	134	311	30	6	287	78	-7	+0	—	—	+8	0.1
2025	25	AAA	St. Paul Saints	—	180	166	36	7	0	7	13	59	1	0	0	217	278	386	663	169	290	33	7	296	85	-3	+0	—	—	+5	0.2

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#2Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	9	1,844	19	2	219	297	308	+17	+52	5.6	5.8
#2Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	/162	664	7	1	219	297	308	+6.1	+18.7	2.0	pk7: 6
#3Chad Moellerlast yr '09 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,524 PA	10	1,524	29	2	226	288	351	+19	+14	3.8	4.3
	/162	664	13	1	226	288	351	+8.5	+6.2	1.6	pk7: 5
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	1	203	4	1	209	261	327	+4	+4	-0.0	-0.0
	/162	664	14	3	209	261	327	+11.9	+13.1	-0.0	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Patrick Winkel (OGILVIE)	26	35	55	45	35	207/251/337	130	314	5	0	38%	6%	52	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Patrick Dorrian 2022 · AAA	26	40→39	46→55	47→45	40	198/263/328	131	302	14	6	38%	8%	63	-0.9	197/262/350	153	299	19	6	38%	7%	68	-0.5	181/248/332	150	266	20	5	39%	7%	54	-0.8
✕Ben Rortvedt 2023 · MLB	25	38	47→45	46→40	38	196/255/325	129	280	16	4	35%	6%	58	-1.2	208/286/325	117	284	13	5	29%	9%	72	-0.2	198/285/294	97	267	10	2	28%	9%	61	-0.4
✕Eric Jagielo 2018 · AAA	26	38→36	40→50	42→30	40	186/254/273	87	268	8	2	32%	6%	44	-2.1	190/242/301	111	279	11	4	34%	5%	46	-2.0	167/210/286	119	245	13	1	36%	4%	27	-2.5
✕Lou Santangelo 2009 · AAA	26	40→39	45→55	43→40	38	206/250/321	115	285	14	3	32%	6%	54	-1.4	202/251/305	103	286	10	3	31%	6%	50	-1.7	186/238/284	99	263	9	0	32%	6%	36	-1.3
✕Cael Brockmeyer 2018 · AAA	26	36→38	45	47→40	37	189/244/308	119	264	14	4	33%	5%	49	-1.8	215/272/313	98	325	9	8	35%	5%	62	-0.9	241/300/316	75	381	6	5	36%	5%	71	-0.1
✕Steven Lerud 2012 · AAA	27	39→41	42→45	43→40	38	193/255/293	100	279	10	3	33%	6%	50	-1.8	203/279/295	92	305	8	4	33%	8%	61	-1.0	199/291/280	82	290	7	2	31%	9%	60	-0.3
✕Kellin Deglan 2018 · AA	26	37→36	45→50	42→40	32	188/236/305	116	303	14	5	42%	5%	44	-2.1	201/259/320	119	323	12	5	39%	6%	59	-1.1	174/241/288	114	278	13	2	40%	6%	40	-0.7
✕Jake Lowery 2016 · AA	26	35	45	47→30	43	183/250/307	124	260	13	4	34%	8%	51	-1.7	187/258/294	107	293	10	5	37%	8%	51	-1.7	118/199/170	52	253	3	0	50%	9%	-6	-1.3
✕Shane Matheny 2022 · AA	26	39→41	43→45	47→50	39	191/254/300	109	301	11	6	39%	7%	51	-1.7	203/285/337	134	323	15	9	38%	10%	74	-0.1	193/282/326	133	300	16	9	38%	10%	68	-0.3
✕Bruce Caldwell 2018 · AAA	26	42→45	42→45	45→40	41	202/269/304	102	308	10	4	36%	8%	58	-1.2	202/262/310	108	298	11	4	34%	7%	56	-1.3	194/253/297	103	279	11	2	33%	7%	48	-1.3
✕Kyle Skipworth 2016 · AAA	26	33→35	46→50	41→30	29	168/225/295	127	307	15	4	48%	5%	38	-2.6	194/251/333	139	319	17	7	42%	6%	58	-1.2	138/196/274	136	186	22	0	40%	6%	20	-0.8
✕Jakson Reetz 2022 · AAA	26	37→31	44→60	45	39	185/266/298	113	281	12	5	36%	7%	57	-1.2	203/280/385	182	264	23	5	32%	6%	85	+0.7	196/276/392	196	242	25	4	30%	7%	82	+0.3
✕Colt Morton 2009 · MLB	27	37	47→50	47→30	40	193/259/325	132	276	15	4	35%	7%	60	-1.0	204/259/342	138	283	16	7	32%	6%	64	-0.8	170/221/358	188	197	25	0	30%	5%	50	-0.3
✕Ryan Fisher 2014 · AA	26	42→44	43→45	45→40	38	203/267/320	118	299	9	5	34%	6%	62	-0.9	213/281/335	122	303	12	6	32%	6%	72	-0.2	173/246/301	128	224	20	0	33%	5%	49	-0.4
✕Jorge Saez 2017 · AA	26	37	45	44→30	40	191/250/309	118	275	13	4	34%	7%	52	-1.6	208/275/344	136	298	17	5	34%	8%	72	-0.2	192/268/324	132	267	19	2	34%	9%	62	-0.3
✕Trevor Schwecke 2023 · AAA	25	39	44→45	41→50	39	195/257/308	113	291	11	6	35%	7%	54	-1.4	218/275/332	114	316	10	14	32%	6%	68	-0.5	223/280/335	112	320	9	17	31%	6%	68	-0.3
✕J.R. Hopf 2009 · AAA	26	41	40→45	48→40	44	198/267/285	87	297	8	4	34%	8%	53	-1.5	220/278/321	101	291	8	6	26%	7%	66	-0.6	225/275/323	98	281	8	2	22%	6%	64	-0.3
✕Tristan Gray 2022 · AAA	26	42→35	48→55	41→40	42	216/275/358	142	287	16	5	30%	7%	75	-0.0	190/242/353	163	263	22	4	36%	5%	60	-1.0	202/259/335	133	273	15	3	31%	6%	61	-0.6
✕Riley Mahan 2022 · AA	26	37→43	43→45	41→40	32	184/234/290	107	311	11	4	43%	5%	40	-2.4	195/246/341	146	336	17	8	45%	6%	59	-1.1	180/231/348	167	302	21	7	46%	5%	53	-0.6
✕Chris Sharpe 2022 · AAA	26	37→39	44→50	45→50	38	185/252/306	121	279	11	10	36%	6%	53	-1.5	189/263/296	107	295	8	13	36%	7%	54	-1.4	160/248/262	103	254	7	16	37%	8%	40	-1.1