Patrick WinkelC
St. Paul Saints
Age 26
L/R
6'1" / 200 lbs
AAA
BB +3%
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 0.2 · 2028
wRC+†57
AVG/OBP/SLG.200 / .256 / .320
PA196
HR5
K%35
BB%6
MLB%10%
Scouting · now → future
HIT
35→35
PWR
55→55
SPD
45→45
EYE
38↘35
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2028
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2028
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2033
First FA Year 2034
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.2 | $0.8M | +$0.0M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.1 | $0.4M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | — | — | — |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.2M | — | — | — |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | — | — | — |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | — | — | — |
| Totals | $1M | $-5M | -$6M | ||
Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.
Career Projections (MLE)
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 21 | A | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | 84 | 74 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 30 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .189 | .286 | .284 | .569 | .095 | .302 | 36 | 11 | .252 | 51 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +2 | -0.1 |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ | Cedar Rapids Kernels | 221 | 203 | 41 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 79 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .202 | .264 | .310 | .574 | .108 | .300 | 36 | 8 | .253 | 52 | -12 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +6 | -0.2 |
| 2023 | 23 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | 356 | 316 | 69 | 14 | 1 | 7 | 33 | 110 | 3 | 3 | 1 | .218 | .298 | .335 | .634 | .117 | .305 | 31 | 9 | .283 | 75 | -10 | +0 | +0 | +6 | +10 | 0.7 |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA | St. Paul Saints | 297 | 282 | 53 | 13 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 109 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .188 | .226 | .287 | .514 | .099 | .284 | 37 | 4 | .226 | 31 | -23 | +0 | +0 | +5 | +8 | -1.0 |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA | St. Paul Saints | 180 | 170 | 31 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 72 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .182 | .228 | .288 | .516 | .106 | .287 | 40 | 5 | .223 | 29 | -14 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +5 | -0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | MIN | 196 | 180 | 37 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 68 | 1 | 2 | 0 | .206 | .263 | .333 | .596 | .128 | .291 | 35 | 7 | .260 | 57 | -9 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +6 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB 25% | MIN | 269 | 247 | 50 | 10 | 1 | 6 | 18 | 91 | 2 | 3 | 1 | .202 | .262 | .324 | .586 | .121 | .291 | 34 | 7 | .267 | 62 | -11 | +0 | +0 | +5 | +8 | 0.1 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB 37% | MIN | 319 | 292 | 61 | 12 | 1 | 8 | 22 | 105 | 2 | 3 | 1 | .209 | .269 | .339 | .608 | .130 | .291 | 33 | 7 | .270 | 65 | -13 | +0 | -1 | +6 | +9 | 0.2 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB 47% | MIN | 338 | 309 | 64 | 13 | 1 | 8 | 24 | 111 | 2 | 3 | 1 | .207 | .269 | .333 | .602 | .126 | .290 | 33 | 7 | .271 | 65 | -13 | +0 | -1 | +6 | +10 | 0.1 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB 55% | MIN | 352 | 322 | 66 | 13 | 1 | 8 | 25 | 116 | 2 | 3 | 0 | .205 | .266 | .326 | .593 | .121 | .289 | 33 | 7 | .269 | 64 | -14 | +1 | -2 | +6 | +10 | 0.0 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB 66% | MIN | 333 | 304 | 63 | 13 | 1 | 8 | 24 | 111 | 2 | 2 | 0 | .207 | .270 | .336 | .605 | .128 | .288 | 33 | 7 | .265 | 61 | -15 | +0 | -3 | +6 | +9 | -0.2 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB 83% | MIN | 307 | 280 | 56 | 11 | 1 | 7 | 22 | 104 | 2 | 2 | 0 | .200 | .263 | .321 | .585 | .121 | .286 | 34 | 7 | .260 | 57 | -15 | +0 | -4 | +5 | +9 | -0.4 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | MIN | 273 | 250 | 50 | 10 | 1 | 6 | 19 | 94 | 2 | 1 | 0 | .200 | .262 | .320 | .582 | .120 | .284 | 34 | 7 | .255 | 53 | -14 | +0 | -4 | +5 | +8 | -0.6 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | MIN | 227 | 208 | 39 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 80 | 1 | 1 | 0 | .188 | .249 | .284 | .533 | .096 | .282 | 35 | 7 | .248 | 48 | -13 | +0 | -5 | +4 | +6 | -0.8 |
| ▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 3752 | 3437 | 694 | 142 | 8 | 82 | 264 | 1280 | 22 | 24 | 4 | .202 | .263 | .319 | .583 | .118 | .292 | 34 | 7 | .260 | 57 | -183 | +3 | -20 | +67 | +106 | -2.6 | ||
| / 162G | — | 650 | 595 | 120 | 25 | 1 | 14 | 46 | 222 | 4 | 4 | 1 | .202 | .264 | .318 | .581 | .116 | .293 | 34 | 7 | .260 | 57 | -32 | +0 | -3 | +12 | +18 | -0.5 | ||
Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)
Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 21 | A | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | 84 | 70 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 22 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .243 | .369 | .357 | .726 | .114 | .340 | 26 | 15 | .336 | 116 | +1 | +0 | — | — | +2 | 0.4 |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ | Cedar Rapids Kernels | 221 | 197 | 50 | 9 | 0 | 6 | 23 | 62 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .254 | .332 | .391 | .723 | .137 | .338 | 28 | 10 | .325 | 107 | +2 | +0 | — | — | +6 | 0.8 |
| 2023 | 23 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | 356 | 304 | 81 | 16 | 1 | 10 | 45 | 86 | 3 | 3 | 1 | .266 | .366 | .424 | .791 | .158 | .335 | 24 | 13 | .352 | 128 | +11 | +0 | — | — | +10 | 2.2 |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA | St. Paul Saints | 297 | 276 | 63 | 16 | 0 | 7 | 19 | 90 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .228 | .280 | .362 | .643 | .134 | .311 | 30 | 6 | .287 | 78 | -7 | +0 | — | — | +8 | 0.1 |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA | St. Paul Saints | 180 | 166 | 36 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 13 | 59 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .217 | .278 | .386 | .663 | .169 | .290 | 33 | 7 | .296 | 85 | -3 | +0 | — | — | +5 | 0.2 |
Career Path Comps
What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Scouting | At Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Peak 3 Yrs | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | HIT | PWR | SPD | EYE | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR |
| Patrick Winkel (OGILVIE) | 26 | 35 | 55 | 45 | 35 | .200/.256/.320 | .120 | .291 | 5 | 2 | 35% | 6% | 57 | -0.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
|
✕Patrick Dorrian 2022 · AAA |
26 | 39→37 | 48→55 | 48→45 | 41 | .200/.265/.342 | .141 | .295 | 16 | 6 | 36% | 8% | 66 | -0.6 | .196/.262/.348 | .152 | .292 | 19 | 6 | 37% | 8% | 67 | -0.5 | .176/.243/.318 | .142 | .254 | 19 | 5 | 37% | 7% | 48 | -1.1 |
|
✕Lou Santangelo 2009 · AAA |
26 | 39→38 | 46→55 | 42→40 | 38 | .202/.247/.322 | .120 | .283 | 14 | 3 | 34% | 6% | 53 | -1.5 | .198/.248/.301 | .103 | .281 | 10 | 3 | 32% | 6% | 48 | -1.9 | .183/.237/.280 | .097 | .259 | 9 | 0 | 32% | 6% | 35 | -1.4 |
|
✕Jakson Reetz 2022 · AAA |
26 | 38→34 | 45→60 | 45 | 39 | .189/.269/.309 | .120 | .282 | 13 | 5 | 36% | 7% | 61 | -1.0 | .204/.281/.391 | .187 | .267 | 24 | 5 | 33% | 6% | 88 | +0.9 | .197/.277/.397 | .201 | .245 | 26 | 4 | 31% | 7% | 84 | +0.3 |
|
✕Cael Brockmeyer 2018 · AAA |
26 | 37→40 | 45 | 46→40 | 38 | .192/.248/.309 | .116 | .266 | 13 | 4 | 32% | 6% | 51 | -1.7 | .214/.272/.315 | .101 | .317 | 10 | 7 | 34% | 5% | 63 | -0.9 | .241/.302/.322 | .081 | .371 | 7 | 5 | 34% | 5% | 73 | -0.0 |
|
✕Jake Lowery 2016 · AA |
26 | 37 | 44→45 | 47→30 | 43 | .189/.255/.306 | .118 | .271 | 11 | 4 | 33% | 8% | 53 | -1.5 | .187/.257/.291 | .104 | .291 | 10 | 5 | 36% | 8% | 50 | -1.7 | .125/.205/.184 | .059 | .260 | 4 | 0 | 49% | 9% | 0 | -1.2 |
|
✕Shane Matheny 2022 · AA |
26 | 38→42 | 43→45 | 47→50 | 39 | .187/.250/.294 | .107 | .292 | 11 | 6 | 38% | 7% | 48 | -1.9 | .201/.285/.328 | .127 | .324 | 14 | 9 | 38% | 10% | 72 | -0.2 | .191/.281/.316 | .125 | .300 | 14 | 9 | 38% | 10% | 64 | -0.5 |
|
✕Bruce Caldwell 2018 · AAA |
26 | 41→45 | 44→45 | 46→40 | 42 | .201/.269/.312 | .111 | .301 | 12 | 4 | 35% | 8% | 61 | -1.0 | .204/.265/.317 | .113 | .300 | 12 | 4 | 34% | 7% | 59 | -1.1 | .195/.255/.304 | .109 | .279 | 11 | 2 | 33% | 7% | 50 | -1.2 |
|
✕Eric Jagielo 2017 · AA |
25 | 40→35 | 46→45 | 46→30 | 38 | .201/.265/.327 | .126 | .295 | 15 | 2 | 36% | 6% | 63 | -0.8 | .183/.246/.281 | .098 | .271 | 10 | 3 | 34% | 6% | 43 | -2.2 | .160/.225/.251 | .090 | .235 | 10 | 1 | 35% | 6% | 24 | -2.4 |
|
✕David Sheaffer 2021 · AAA |
26 | 41 | 47→55 | 50→40 | 38 | .209/.254/.341 | .132 | .283 | 15 | 6 | 32% | 5% | 61 | -1.0 | .202/.249/.301 | .099 | .291 | 9 | 5 | 32% | 5% | 48 | -1.9 | .174/.220/.258 | .084 | .252 | 7 | 1 | 32% | 5% | 24 | -1.0 |
|
✕Erik Ostberg 2022 · AA |
26 | 43 | 48→55 | 42→45 | 39 | .216/.273/.352 | .135 | .312 | 17 | 4 | 35% | 7% | 72 | -0.2 | .203/.262/.347 | .144 | .293 | 17 | 7 | 35% | 7% | 67 | -0.5 | .171/.233/.318 | .147 | .237 | 17 | 7 | 35% | 7% | 44 | -0.6 |
|
✕Kellin Deglan 2018 · AA |
26 | 36→34 | 46→50 | 42→40 | 31 | .185/.232/.304 | .119 | .299 | 15 | 5 | 42% | 5% | 43 | -2.2 | .200/.259/.317 | .117 | .320 | 13 | 5 | 39% | 6% | 58 | -1.2 | .179/.247/.293 | .114 | .280 | 13 | 2 | 39% | 6% | 44 | -0.6 |
|
✕JJ Schwarz 2022 · AA |
26 | 38 | 44→45 | 47→30 | 44 | .195/.260/.302 | .108 | .268 | 12 | 4 | 31% | 8% | 54 | -1.4 | .216/.284/.346 | .130 | .306 | 15 | 4 | 32% | 9% | 76 | +0.0 | .206/.279/.334 | .128 | .290 | 16 | 1 | 33% | 9% | 68 | -0.3 |
|
✕Jason Delay 2022 · AAA |
27 | 38 | 47→45 | 48→40 | 33 | .198/.238/.325 | .127 | .287 | 15 | 6 | 36% | 4% | 50 | -1.7 | .216/.269/.301 | .085 | .295 | 5 | 5 | 27% | 6% | 56 | -1.3 | .226/.285/.301 | .075 | .297 | 3 | 2 | 23% | 6% | 61 | -0.4 |
|
✕Tristan Gray 2022 · AAA |
26 | 40→34 | 49→55 | 39→40 | 43 | .209/.272/.357 | .148 | .272 | 17 | 5 | 29% | 7% | 74 | -0.1 | .193/.245/.364 | .171 | .267 | 23 | 4 | 37% | 5% | 65 | -0.7 | .189/.248/.343 | .154 | .256 | 19 | 2 | 33% | 6% | 58 | -0.9 |
|
✕Joe Dunand 2022 · AAA |
26 | 40→46 | 44→50 | 46→45 | 37 | .199/.255/.310 | .112 | .283 | 11 | 4 | 33% | 5% | 54 | -1.4 | .206/.274/.342 | .136 | .303 | 15 | 7 | 35% | 7% | 71 | -0.3 | .203/.278/.343 | .140 | .294 | 16 | 6 | 34% | 8% | 70 | -0.2 |
|
✕Chris Okey 2021 · AAA |
26 | 37 | 46→45 | 49→40 | 37 | .191/.244/.313 | .122 | .278 | 14 | 5 | 36% | 6% | 50 | -1.8 | .212/.266/.329 | .117 | .304 | 12 | 5 | 32% | 6% | 63 | -0.8 | .209/.262/.317 | .107 | .291 | 10 | 2 | 30% | 5% | 55 | -0.4 |
|
✕Brian Serven 2021 · AA |
26 | 38 | 45→50 | 43→30 | 40 | .195/.250/.317 | .122 | .255 | 13 | 5 | 28% | 5% | 54 | -1.4 | .193/.251/.326 | .133 | .244 | 17 | 4 | 28% | 6% | 57 | -1.2 | .182/.252/.278 | .096 | .251 | 12 | 0 | 31% | 7% | 42 | -0.9 |
|
✕Bret Boswell 2022 · AA |
27 | 38→41 | 46→50 | 41→45 | 36 | .195/.247/.318 | .123 | .290 | 14 | 8 | 37% | 6% | 53 | -1.5 | .197/.269/.324 | .127 | .309 | 14 | 9 | 38% | 8% | 64 | -0.8 | .171/.249/.294 | .124 | .265 | 14 | 7 | 38% | 9% | 45 | -1.0 |
|
✕Davis Wendzel 2023 · AAA |
26 | 35→28 | 49→50 | 43→40 | 41 | .191/.255/.331 | .140 | .253 | 18 | 5 | 32% | 7% | 60 | -1.0 | .195/.273/.341 | .146 | .245 | 19 | 5 | 28% | 8% | 71 | -0.3 | .191/.275/.335 | .144 | .229 | 19 | 4 | 26% | 8% | 68 | -0.4 |
|
✕Matt Spring 2011 · AA |
26 | 36 | 47→50 | 46→45 | 37 | .192/.242/.326 | .134 | .270 | 15 | 4 | 35% | 6% | 53 | -1.5 | .187/.241/.333 | .146 | .294 | 18 | 4 | 41% | 6% | 55 | -1.4 | .167/.219/.320 | .153 | .245 | 20 | 0 | 40% | 5% | 40 | -0.8 |