Nick Dunn — OGILVIE

Nick Dunn3B Reading Fightin Phils

Age 29 L/R 5'8" / 185 lbs AA HR +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 250 proj PA

wRC+†103

AVG/OBP/SLG.265 / .322 / .389

PA250

HR5

K%13

BB%7

ISO125

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT50

scouting grade only

POWER50

scouting grade only

EYE55

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1.0M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.8M		$1M	+$1.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2018	21	A	Peoria Chiefs	—	52	48	6	0	0	0	1	12	3	0	1	125	192	125	317		167	23	2	149	-28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	A	Peoria Chiefs	—	52	48	8	0	0	0	1	9	3	0	1	167	231	167	397		205	17	2	195	7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	A+	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	411	386	74	15	3	3	18	80	2	2	1	192	232	269	501	78	231	19	4	222	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	A+	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	411	380	94	19	3	3	24	58	2	2	1	247	296	337	632	89	281	14	6	283	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	AA	Springfield Cardinals	—	371	336	75	10	0	6	24	80	6	4	2	223	287	307	593	83	271	22	6	261	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	AA	Springfield Cardinals	—	371	324	84	14	0	6	36	59	6	4	2	259	344	358	702	99	295	16	10	318	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	AA	Springfield Cardinals	—	472	423	103	21	4	6	39	52	8	5	2	243	319	355	674	111	264	11	8	298	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	AA	Springfield Cardinals	—	472	399	108	21	3	7	63	42	8	5	2	271	381	391	772	120	287	9	13	351	127	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	AA	2 teams	—	537	480	135	22	2	8	50	73	3	2	6	281	353	385	738	104	315	14	9	326	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	AA	2 teams	—	537	457	146	25	2	9	73	57	3	2	6	319	417	442	859	123	347	11	14	385	153	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	361	333	96	19	2	7	20	44	3	1	1	288	334	420	755	132	310	12	6	323	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	361	323	102	19	3	8	30	33	3	1	1	316	379	467	847	152	328	9	8	372	143	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	AA	2 teams	—	323	295	60	8	1	8	23	34	2	3	1	203	266	319	584	115	204	11	7	260	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	AA	2 teams	—	323	283	61	9	1	9	35	28	2	3	1	216	306	350	656	134	210	9	11	297	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	29	MLB	PHI	—	250	228	61	11	1	5	18	33	2	2	1	268	327	390	717	123	291	13	7	320	103	+1	+0	+0	+1	+7	0.8
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	30	MLB	PHI	31%	319	291	77	13	2	7	23	46	2	2	1	265	323	395	718	131	290	14	7	317	101	+0	+0	-2	+1	+9	0.9
2028	31	MLB	PHI	48%	325	296	77	13	2	7	24	50	2	2	1	260	320	389	708	128	288	15	7	313	98	-1	+0	-3	+1	+9	0.7
2029	32	MLB	PHI	58%	319	290	74	13	1	7	24	52	2	2	1	255	316	379	696	124	285	16	8	308	94	-2	+0	-4	+1	+9	0.5
2030	33	MLB	PHI	64%	298	272	67	11	1	6	22	50	2	1	1	246	307	360	668	114	281	17	7	301	89	-4	-0	-4	+1	+8	0.1
2031	34	MLB	PHI	59%	261	238	57	9	1	5	19	46	2	1	0	239	301	349	650	109	275	18	7	292	82	-5	+0	-5	+1	+7	-0.2
2027	30	MLB	PHI	31%	99	91	23	4	0	2	7	14	1	1	0	253	313	363	676	110	292	14	7	314	99	-0	+0	-1	+0	+3	0.3
2028	31	MLB	PHI	48%	157	143	38	7	1	3	12	24	1	1	0	266	327	392	719	126	290	15	8	310	96	-1	+0	-1	+1	+4	0.3
2029	32	MLB	PHI	58%	185	168	43	7	1	4	14	30	1	1	0	256	317	381	698	125	287	16	8	305	92	-2	+0	-2	+1	+5	0.2
2030	33	MLB	PHI	64%	190	173	43	7	1	4	14	32	1	1	0	249	309	370	678	121	283	17	7	298	86	-3	+0	-3	+1	+5	0.1
2031	34	MLB	PHI	59%	155	142	35	6	1	3	11	27	1	0	0	246	305	366	671	120	277	17	7	289	80	-4	+0	-3	+1	+4	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	786	717	182	31	4	16	58	127	5	4	0	254	314	375	689	121	287	16	7	303	90	-9	+1	-10	+3	+22	0.7
/ 162G	—			—	650	593	150	26	3	13	48	105	4	3	0	253	313	373	686	120	287	16	7	303	90	-8	+1	-8	+2	+18	0.6
Career	—			—	4299	3916	962	165	20	75	305	652	39	27	19	246	307	355	662	110	275	15	7	293	82	-86	-2	-17	+15	+122	3.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	592	145	25	3	11	46	99	6	4	3	245	306	353	659	108	275	15	7	293	82	-13	-0	-3	+2	+18	0.5

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2018	21	A	Peoria Chiefs	—	52	48	8	0	0	0	1	9	3	0	1	167	231	167	397		205	17	2	195	7	-5	-0	—	—	+1	-0.4
2019	22	A+	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	411	380	94	19	3	3	24	58	2	2	1	247	296	337	632	89	281	14	6	283	74	-12	+0	—	—	+12	-0.0
2021	24	AA	Springfield Cardinals	—	371	324	84	14	0	6	36	59	6	4	2	259	344	358	702	99	295	16	10	318	101	+1	+0	—	—	+11	1.1
2022	25	AA	Springfield Cardinals	—	472	399	108	21	3	7	63	42	8	5	2	271	381	391	772	120	287	9	13	351	127	+14	+0	—	—	+13	2.9
2023	26	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	225	192	58	10	0	2	32	26	1	0	0	302	404	385	790	83	341	12	14	363	136	+9	+0	—	—	+6	1.6
2023	26	AA	Springfield Cardinals	—	312	265	88	15	2	7	41	31	2	2	6	332	425	483	908	151	351	10	13	401	165	+23	-2	—	—	+9	3.0
2024	27	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	361	323	102	19	3	8	30	33	3	1	1	316	379	467	847	152	328	9	8	372	143	+17	-0	—	—	+10	2.8
2025	28	AAA	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	146	132	27	3	1	2	12	16	0	1	0	205	271	288	559	83	217	11	8	253	52	-8	+0	—	—	+4	-0.4
2025	28	AA	Reading Fightin Phils	—	177	151	34	6	0	7	23	12	2	2	1	225	335	404	739	179	203	7	13	332	112	+2	+0	—	—	+5	0.8

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Albert Almora Jr.last yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,571 PA	6	1,571	33	7	261	301	387	+2	+18	4.8	4.8
	/162	664	14	3	261	301	387	+1.0	+7.8	2.0	pk7: 5
#2Dan Wilsonlast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,801 PA	5	1,801	27	5	259	301	360	+6	+13	3.4	3.4
#2Dan Wilsonlast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,801 PA	/162	664	10	2	259	301	360	+2.1	+4.7	1.3	pk7: 3
#3Jose Vizcainolast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,971 PA	7	1,971	15	15	269	315	355	+3	+2	2.8	2.8
	/162	664	5	5	269	315	355	+0.9	+0.6	0.9	pk7: 3
#4Jason Phillipslast yr '07 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,508 PA	5	1,508	29	0	248	314	368	+11	-10	2.7	2.7
	/162	664	13	0	248	314	368	+4.7	-4.4	1.2	pk7: 3
#5Einar Díazlast yr '05 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,763 PA	6	1,763	16	10	248	297	342	+5	+12	2.4	2.4
#5Einar Díazlast yr '05 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,763 PA	/162	664	6	4	248	297	342	+1.9	+4.7	0.9	pk7: 2
#6Conor Gillaspielast yr '17 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,503 PA	5	1,503	32	1	252	305	394	+5	-14	2.2	2.2
	/162	664	14	0	252	305	394	+2.4	-6.1	1.0	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	3	791	16	4	252	310	372	+3	+2	1.4	1.4
	/162	664	13	3	252	310	372	+2.4	+1.3	1.2	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Nick Dunn (OGILVIE)	29	50	50	45	55	265/322/389	124	291	5	2	13%	7%	103	+0.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Terrence Long 2005 · MLB	29	53→58	46→50	45	49	259/309/398	139	287	13	6	15%	7%	98	+1.6	256/300/373	117	294	11	5	16%	6%	88	+0.9	254/296/360	105	292	10	2	16%	5%	80	+0.2
✕Conor Gillaspie 2017 · MLB	30	52→59	47→50	42→40	47	259/305/406	147	290	13	4	16%	6%	99	+1.7	236/283/367	131	262	13	9	15%	6%	80	+0.4	215/251/307	93	237	7	8	13%	4%	47	-0.6
✕Brian Buscher 2009 · MLB	28	53→57	46→45	39→45	49	262/318/390	128	289	14	4	15%	7%	101	+1.8	236/306/350	114	268	12	4	16%	8%	85	+0.7	213/296/304	91	245	8	0	16%	10%	69	-0.1
✕Tucker Barnhart 2019 · MLB	28	51→54	44→45	40	55	248/325/372	123	289	11	3	18%	10%	98	+1.6	236/318/373	137	289	15	3	22%	10%	97	+1.5	228/313/361	133	287	15	1	24%	10%	86	+0.4
✕Elias Díaz 2020 · MLB	29	53→56	42→50	44→45	48	257/307/362	105	297	10	3	17%	6%	89	+0.9	227/286/357	130	259	15	3	18%	7%	79	+0.3	242/293/380	138	290	16	0	22%	6%	85	+0.3
✕Vimael Machín 2023 · MLB	29	49→54	42→50	46→50	51	238/304/348	110	281	8	3	18%	8%	84	+0.6	236/294/354	118	282	12	8	20%	7%	82	+0.5	244/298/379	135	287	16	11	20%	7%	87	+0.5
✕Donovan Walton 2023 · MLB	29	48→58	49→55	48→45	48	241/301/400	159	269	15	8	17%	6%	97	+1.5	238/298/359	121	272	12	7	17%	7%	84	+0.6	254/316/372	119	283	14	5	16%	7%	94	+0.9
✕Gerald Laird 2009 · MLB	29	51→47	45→50	42→50	46	248/303/377	129	294	12	6	20%	6%	91	+1.1	227/295/337	110	264	9	7	17%	7%	78	+0.2	268/338/369	101	310	6	3	14%	8%	97	+0.4
✕Mark Teahen 2011 · MLB	29	54→60	45→55	44→50	49	263/326/397	133	323	12	7	22%	8%	105	+2.1	229/291/327	98	305	8	7	26%	8%	72	-0.2	209/269/284	75	289	5	5	28%	7%	50	-0.8
✕John Baker 2010 · MLB	29	55→59	46→45	42→45	52	267/342/405	138	326	13	3	21%	9%	115	+2.7	247/327/359	112	311	8	5	21%	10%	97	+1.5	194/271/237	43	268	3	2	26%	9%	36	-1.0
●Tommy La Stella 2018 · MLB	29	51→55	45→55	42→50	54	247/320/371	124	278	12	4	16%	9%	97	+1.5	265/332/407	142	281	16	3	12%	9%	111	+2.5	274/341/448	174	271	21	1	9%	8%	123	+1.5
✕Scott Moore 2013 · MLB	29	49→51	49→55	42→50	46	243/308/393	150	299	16	5	24%	7%	98	+1.6	207/273/342	135	273	14	3	29%	6%	70	-0.3	180/249/302	122	242	13	1	30%	6%	48	-1.1
✕Lonnie Chisenhall 2018 · MLB	29	53→56	50→55	49→45	47	264/317/425	162	306	16	7	20%	7%	109	+2.4	258/322/412	154	310	15	8	21%	8%	108	+2.3	299/376/441	142	348	9	5	15%	9%	130	+0.7
✕Midre Cummings 2001 · MLB	29	53	45→50	47→50	53	261/326/385	124	285	13	5	14%	8%	103	+1.9	256/317/382	126	287	13	6	15%	7%	98	+1.6	236/298/387	150	297	20	0	27%	7%	95	+0.7
✕Buck Britton 2015 · AAA	29	52→54	46→50	46→45	45	255/293/388	133	283	13	5	16%	5%	89	+1.0	220/255/328	108	254	11	8	18%	4%	57	-1.2	200/231/289	90	232	9	8	18%	4%	34	-1.6
✕Kevin Howard 2010 · AAA	29	52→56	46→45	43→45	50	254/304/381	127	280	13	7	15%	7%	92	+1.2	240/281/346	106	277	11	7	17%	5%	72	-0.2	240/276/332	92	278	10	7	17%	5%	64	-0.4
●Stephen Vogt 2014 · MLB	29	49→59	49→60	43→40	48	246/294/397	150	276	16	3	18%	6%	92	+1.2	263/321/428	165	293	18	3	17%	8%	111	+2.5	266/328/436	170	294	19	1	16%	8%	111	+2.0
✕Yuniesky Betancourt 2011 · MLB	29	53→60	46→50	41→50	47	257/287/390	133	266	13	4	10%	4%	88	+0.9	245/274/393	148	257	17	4	12%	4%	83	+0.6	236/262/383	147	248	17	2	13%	3%	71	-0.2
✕Chris Woodward 2004 · MLB	28	51→47	49→50	45	49	257/315/412	155	298	16	5	20%	7%	105	+2.1	245/304/368	123	302	10	4	21%	7%	89	+0.9	236/297/339	103	298	6	2	22%	7%	75	-0.0
✕Steve Holm 2009 · MLB	29	48	47→50	43→40	51	238/314/376	138	280	14	5	20%	8%	96	+1.5	216/280/324	108	269	9	4	22%	7%	68	-0.5	195/257/288	93	248	7	1	23%	6%	48	-0.7