Nick Dunn
3B Reading Fightin Phils| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 26 | AAA/AASTL | 537 | .319/.417/.442 | 9 | 2 | 105 | — | .281/.353/.379 |
| 2024 | 27 | AAASTL | 361 | .316/.379/.467 | 8 | 1 | 99 | — | .283/.331/.407 |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA/AAPHI | 323 | .216/.306/.350 | 9 | 3 | 53 | — | .197/.259/.302 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 30 | MLBPHI | 3 | .256/.312/.384 | 0 | 0 | 94 | 0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ28% MLB | 31 | MLBPHI | 55 | .251/.307/.375 | 1 | 0 | 91 | -0.0 |
Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 50
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 21 | A | Peoria Chiefs | — | 52 | 48 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 167 | 231 | 167 | 397 | 205 | 17 | 2 | 195 | -10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 411 | 380 | 94 | 19 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 58 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 247 | 296 | 337 | 632 | 89 | 281 | 14 | 6 | 283 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | — | 371 | 324 | 84 | 14 | 0 | 6 | 36 | 59 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 259 | 344 | 358 | 702 | 99 | 295 | 16 | 10 | 318 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | — | 472 | 399 | 108 | 21 | 3 | 7 | 63 | 42 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 271 | 381 | 391 | 772 | 120 | 287 | 9 | 13 | 351 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | — | 225 | 192 | 58 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 32 | 26 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 302 | 404 | 385 | 790 | 83 | 341 | 12 | 14 | 363 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | — | 312 | 265 | 88 | 15 | 2 | 7 | 41 | 31 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 332 | 425 | 483 | 908 | 151 | 351 | 10 | 13 | 401 | 116 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | — | 361 | 323 | 102 | 19 | 3 | 8 | 30 | 33 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 316 | 379 | 467 | 847 | 152 | 328 | 9 | 8 | 372 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | — | 146 | 132 | 27 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 205 | 271 | 288 | 559 | 83 | 217 | 11 | 8 | 253 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 177 | 151 | 34 | 6 | 0 | 7 | 23 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 225 | 335 | 404 | 739 | 179 | 203 | 7 | 13 | 332 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 21 | A MLE | Peoria Chiefs | — | 52 | 48 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 146 | 212 | 146 | 357 | 179 | 23 | 2 | 154 | -10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ MLE | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 411 | 386 | 78 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 81 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 202 | 241 | 282 | 524 | 80 | 239 | 20 | 4 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA MLE | Springfield Cardinals | — | 371 | 336 | 77 | 11 | 0 | 5 | 24 | 74 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 229 | 292 | 307 | 599 | 77 | 269 | 20 | 6 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA MLE | Springfield Cardinals | — | 472 | 421 | 98 | 19 | 3 | 5 | 41 | 50 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 233 | 313 | 328 | 641 | 95 | 253 | 11 | 9 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA MLE | Memphis Redbirds | — | 225 | 202 | 54 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 22 | 32 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 267 | 342 | 342 | 684 | 74 | 306 | 14 | 10 | 301 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA MLE | Springfield Cardinals | — | 312 | 278 | 81 | 13 | 2 | 5 | 28 | 38 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 291 | 360 | 406 | 767 | 115 | 314 | 12 | 9 | 339 | 116 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA MLE | Memphis Redbirds | — | 361 | 332 | 94 | 17 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 42 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 283 | 331 | 407 | 738 | 123 | 296 | 12 | 6 | 315 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA MLE | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | — | 146 | 136 | 27 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 19 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 199 | 243 | 279 | 522 | 81 | 204 | 13 | 5 | 215 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AA MLE | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 177 | 159 | 31 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 15 | 14 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 195 | 273 | 321 | 593 | 126 | 189 | 8 | 8 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A MLE | Peoria Chiefs | — | 52 | 48 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 146 | 212 | 146 | 357 | 194 | 23 | 2 | 154 | -10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2018 | 21 | A RAW | Peoria Chiefs | — | 52 | 48 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 167 | 231 | 167 | 397 | 205 | 17 | 2 | 195 | -10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ MLE | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 411 | 386 | 78 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 81 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 202 | 241 | 282 | 524 | 80 | 244 | 20 | 4 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ RAW | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 411 | 380 | 94 | 19 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 58 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 247 | 296 | 337 | 632 | 89 | 281 | 14 | 6 | 283 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA MLE | Springfield Cardinals | — | 371 | 336 | 77 | 11 | 0 | 5 | 24 | 74 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 229 | 292 | 307 | 599 | 77 | 275 | 20 | 6 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA RAW | Springfield Cardinals | — | 371 | 324 | 84 | 14 | 0 | 6 | 36 | 59 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 259 | 344 | 358 | 702 | 99 | 295 | 16 | 10 | 318 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA MLE | Springfield Cardinals | — | 472 | 421 | 98 | 19 | 3 | 5 | 41 | 50 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 233 | 313 | 328 | 641 | 95 | 253 | 11 | 9 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA RAW | Springfield Cardinals | — | 472 | 399 | 108 | 21 | 3 | 7 | 63 | 42 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 271 | 381 | 391 | 772 | 120 | 287 | 9 | 13 | 351 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 537 | 479 | 135 | 22 | 2 | 7 | 51 | 70 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 282 | 355 | 380 | 735 | 98 | 315 | 13 | 9 | 323 | 105 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 537 | 457 | 146 | 25 | 2 | 9 | 73 | 57 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 319 | 417 | 442 | 859 | 123 | 347 | 11 | 14 | 385 | 105 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA MLE | Memphis Redbirds | — | 361 | 332 | 94 | 17 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 42 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 283 | 331 | 407 | 738 | 123 | 304 | 12 | 6 | 315 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA RAW | Memphis Redbirds | — | 361 | 323 | 102 | 19 | 3 | 8 | 30 | 33 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 316 | 379 | 467 | 847 | 152 | 328 | 9 | 8 | 372 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 323 | 295 | 58 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 23 | 34 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 197 | 259 | 302 | 561 | 105 | 199 | 11 | 7 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 323 | 283 | 61 | 9 | 1 | 9 | 35 | 28 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 216 | 306 | 350 | 656 | 134 | 210 | 9 | 11 | 297 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A MLE | Peoria Chiefs | — | 52 | 48 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 146 | 212 | 146 | 357 | 179 | 23 | 2 | 154 | -10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ MLE | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 411 | 388 | 78 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 81 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 201 | 241 | 281 | 522 | 80 | 239 | 20 | 4 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA MLE | Springfield Cardinals | — | 371 | 338 | 77 | 11 | 0 | 5 | 24 | 74 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 228 | 292 | 305 | 597 | 77 | 269 | 20 | 6 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA MLE | Springfield Cardinals | — | 472 | 420 | 98 | 19 | 3 | 5 | 41 | 50 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 233 | 313 | 329 | 641 | 95 | 253 | 11 | 9 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 537 | 478 | 135 | 22 | 2 | 7 | 51 | 70 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 282 | 355 | 381 | 735 | 98 | 311 | 13 | 9 | 323 | 105 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA MLE | Memphis Redbirds | — | 361 | 334 | 94 | 17 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 42 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 281 | 331 | 404 | 736 | 123 | 296 | 12 | 6 | 315 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 323 | 295 | 58 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 23 | 34 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 197 | 259 | 302 | 561 | 105 | 196 | 11 | 7 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 27 | AAA MLE | Memphis Redbirds | — | 361 | 334 | 94 | 17 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 42 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 281 | 331 | 404 | 736 | 123 | 296 | 12 | 6 | 315 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 323 | 295 | 58 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 23 | 34 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 197 | 259 | 302 | 561 | 105 | 196 | 11 | 7 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB MLE | PHI | 2% | 373 | 342 | 87 | 16 | 2 | 7 | 25 | 60 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 255 | 311 | 379 | 690 | 124 | 288 | 16 | 7 | 308 | 94 | -3 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +8 | 0.4 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB CTX | PHI | 2% | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 256 | 312 | 384 | 696 | 128 | 288 | 0 | 0 | 310 | 94 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 31 | MLB MLE | PHI | 28% | 195 | 179 | 45 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 33 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 250 | 306 | 370 | 676 | 120 | 285 | 17 | 7 | 302 | 91 | -2 | -0 | -3 | +1 | +4 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB CTX | PHI | 28% | 55 | 51 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 251 | 307 | 375 | 682 | 124 | 285 | 16 | 7 | 304 | 91 | -1 | +0 | -1 | +0 | +1 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 55 | 51 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 235 | 291 | 333 | 624 | 98 | 268 | 16 | 7 | 304 | 77 | -1 | +0 | -1 | +0 | +1 | -0.0 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 603 | 142 | 24 | 0 | 12 | 47 | 106 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 235 | 291 | 335 | 626 | 100 | 268 | 16 | 7 | 304 | 77 | -7 | +0 | -9 | +2 | +14 | -0.0 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2877 | 2619 | 629 | 108 | 14 | 40 | 202 | 421 | 29 | 20 | 16 | 240 | 302 | 338 | 640 | 98 | 270 | 15 | 7 | 282 | 77 | -3 | -0 | -3 | +1 | +8 | 0.3 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 592 | 142 | 24 | 3 | 9 | 46 | 95 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 240 | 303 | 336 | 639 | 96 | 269 | 15 | 7 | 282 | 77 | -6 | -0 | -5 | +2 | +14 | 0.5 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2025 AAReading Fightin Phils · 177 PAwOBA .323 → .273 (−50)K% 6.8% → 8.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 6.78% | ÷1.016 | ×1.220 | — | — | 8.14% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.43% | ÷0.982 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.968 | 8.58% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.13% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.968 | 0.93% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.11% | ÷0.968 | ×0.970 | ×1.006 | ×0.968 | 14.74% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.32% | ÷1.004 | ×0.860 | ×1.006 | ×0.968 | 3.60% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.959 | ×0.950 | ×1.006 | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.04% | ÷1.036 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.968 | 3.67% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 94, 2B 101, 3B 92, K 103, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.006.
Result: wOBA .323 → .273; ISO .179 → .141; BABIP .203 → .189. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 146 PAwOBA .249 → .215 (−33)K% 11.0% → 13.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 10.96% | ÷0.996 | ×1.200 | — | — | 13.21% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.22% | ÷1.075 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 5.23% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.10% | ÷0.986 | ×0.930 | ×1.016 | ×0.992 | 17.22% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.59% | ÷1.018 | ×0.830 | ×1.016 | ×0.992 | 2.13% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.86% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×1.016 | ×0.992 | 0.94% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.72% | ÷0.947 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 1.26% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 97, 2B 104, 3B 80, K 99, BB 115 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.016.
Result: wOBA .249 → .215; ISO .083 → .070; BABIP .217 → .204. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 361 PAwOBA .367 → .315 (−51)K% 9.1% → 11.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 9.14% | ÷0.953 | ×1.200 | — | — | 11.51% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.31% | ÷1.014 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 5.67% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.83% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 0.78% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.83% | ÷0.991 | ×0.930 | ×0.977 | ×1.003 | 22.85% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.55% | ÷0.920 | ×0.830 | ×0.977 | ×1.003 | 5.80% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.03% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×0.977 | ×1.003 | 0.86% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.76% | ÷1.020 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 1.90% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 98, 2B 84, 3B 130, K 91, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.977.
Result: wOBA .367 → .315; ISO .152 → .121; BABIP .328 → .296. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AASpringfield Cardinals · 312 PAwOBA .396 → .339 (−56)K% 9.9% → 12.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 9.94% | ÷0.987 | ×1.220 | — | — | 12.29% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.14% | ÷1.003 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 9.06% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.64% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.988 | 0.55% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.35% | ÷0.997 | ×0.920 | ×1.008 | ×0.988 | 25.13% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.41% | ÷1.031 | ×0.840 | ×1.008 | ×0.988 | 5.20% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.85% | ÷0.900 | ×0.940 | ×1.008 | ×0.988 | 0.89% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.99% | ÷1.080 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 2.19% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 99, 2B 106, 3B 80, K 97, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.008.
Result: wOBA .396 → .339; ISO .151 → .125; BABIP .351 → .314. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 225 PAwOBA .354 → .301 (−53)K% 11.6% → 14.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 11.56% | ÷0.990 | ×1.200 | — | — | 14.01% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.22% | ÷1.010 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 9.89% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.44% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.43% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.71% | ÷1.040 | ×0.930 | ×0.995 | ×1.018 | 25.09% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.02% | ÷0.969 | ×0.830 | ×0.995 | ×1.018 | 5.23% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×0.995 | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.20% | ÷0.955 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 0.90% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 108, 2B 94, 3B 130, K 98, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.995.
Result: wOBA .354 → .301; ISO .083 → .070; BABIP .341 → .306. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AASpringfield Cardinals · 472 PAwOBA .343 → .290 (−53)K% 8.9% → 10.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 8.90% | ÷1.024 | ×1.220 | — | — | 10.60% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.92% | ÷1.044 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 8.65% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.69% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.998 | 1.47% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.57% | ÷1.012 | ×0.920 | ×0.975 | ×0.998 | 19.07% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.88% | ÷0.935 | ×0.840 | ×0.975 | ×0.998 | 5.14% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.84% | ÷0.900 | ×0.940 | ×0.975 | ×0.998 | 0.85% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.96% | ÷1.069 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 1.46% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 114, 1B 102, 2B 87, 3B 80, K 105, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.975.
Result: wOBA .343 → .290; ISO .120 → .105; BABIP .287 → .253. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AASpringfield Cardinals · 371 PAwOBA .314 → .268 (−46)K% 15.9% → 19.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.90% | ÷0.975 | ×1.220 | — | — | 19.89% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.70% | ÷1.020 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.012 | 6.64% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.62% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 1.39% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.15% | ÷1.003 | ×0.940 | ×0.995 | ×1.012 | 22.79% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.28% | ÷1.107 | ×0.870 | ×0.995 | ×1.012 | 4.18% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.973 | ×0.920 | ×0.995 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.26% | ÷0.990 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 1.81% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 101, 2B 121, 3B 95, K 95, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.995.
Result: wOBA .314 → .268; ISO .099 → .079; BABIP .295 → .269. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 A+Palm Beach Cardinals · 411 PAwOBA .278 → .229 (−49)K% 14.1% → 19.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.11% | ÷1.014 | ×1.420 | — | — | 19.76% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.60% | ÷0.991 | ×0.750 | — | ×1.012 | 4.29% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.49% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×1.012 | 0.46% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.43% | ÷1.048 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 18.08% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.90% | ÷1.047 | ×0.960 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 5.20% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.93% | ÷0.900 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 0.81% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.93% | ÷0.912 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 0.91% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 110, 2B 109, 3B 80, K 103, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .278 → .229; ISO .089 → .078; BABIP .281 → .239. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).