Spencer Torkelson

1B Detroit Tigers

Age 27 R/R 6'1" / 220 lbs MLB HR -8% Svc 3.442 · Ctrl thru 2029

Overview

MLB40-MANArb-1FA 2030

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR
2024	24	MLBDET	381	.219/.295/.374	10	0	93	-1.1
2025	25	MLBDET	649	.240/.335/.456	31	2	123	1.3
2026	26	MLBDET	612	.230/.332/.435	26	1	121	1.5
2027PROJ	27	MLBDET	612	.212/.309/.400	24	2	104	0.7
2028PROJ	28	MLBDET	636	.210/.307/.395	25	1	102	0.5
2029PROJ	29	MLBDET	623	.207/.304/.388	24	1	100	0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.7 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2029Service3.442First FA2030

2027Arb-1$2M2028Arb-2$3M2029Arb-3$3M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

Whiff%90

Chase%90

Barrel%72

Bat Spd67

Avg EV58

xwOBA56

Form.220/.324/.455 ▲▲ rolling true talent (45d window) · proj .217/.311/.412

CompsDavid Villar (age 27) · Luken Baker (age 27) · Kennys Vargas (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 108104vR 93

AVG/OBP/SLG.212 / .309 / .400

PA612

HR24

K%29

BB%11

BABIP264

ISO186

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$6M ctrl surplus

Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 45 / POW 55

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT45

Whiff%

906.7%

xAVG

100.216

POWER55

Barrel%

7211.4

Avg EV

5889.7

Bat Spd

6773.2

EYE60

Chase%

9016.4%

SPEED45

Sprint

3026.5

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%31%▼32% over 62 PA (45d) · proj 29%

BB%12%▲14% over 102 PA (60d) · proj 11%

ISO.235▲▲.313 over 83 AB (60d) · proj .195

HR/BB8.7%▲12.5% over 48 BBE (60d) · proj 7.0%

BABIP.275▲.405 over 42 BIP (60d) · proj .269

SLASH.220/.324/.455▲▲proj .217/.311/.412

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 1128 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

303

825

—

wRC+

131

◀◀L

wOBA

361

314

◀L

ISO

246

171

◀◀L

BABIP

279

286

—

20.8%

29.0%

◀◀L

BB%

11.6%

9.7%

◀◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2022

Service 3.442 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-1	$2M	+1.2	$10M	+$7M
2028	Arb-2	$3M	+0.5	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Arb-3	$3M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$12M	+$7M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	21	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	—	177	147	35	8	1	11	23	36	4	1	0	238	356	531	887	293	233	20	13	380	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	AA	Erie SeaWolves	—	212	175	46	10	0	14	30	50	3	1	1	263	380	560	940	297	278	24	14	401	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	A+	West Michigan Whitecaps	—	141	109	34	11	1	5	24	28	4	3	2	312	453	569	1.021	257	362	20	17	434	135	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	INTL	Salt River Rafters	—	28	20	9	2	0	0	8	5	0	0	0	450	607	550	1.157	100	600	18	29	517	236	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	404	360	73	16	1	8	37	99	5	0	1	203	286	319	606	117	255	25	9	277	76	-11	-0	-5	-10	+9	-1.8
2022	22	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	—	155	131	30	6	0	5	23	41	1	1	1	229	348	389	738	160	294	26	15	336	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	684	606	141	34	1	31	67	171	6	3	0	233	315	446	761	213	269	25	10	335	117	+13	+1	-11	-12	+15	0.6
2024	24	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	381	342	75	21	1	10	33	105	4	0	0	219	295	374	669	155	285	28	9	300	93	-3	+0	-4	-12	+8	-1.1
2024	24	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	—	275	226	54	13	0	11	42	85	2	1	0	239	363	442	805	204	319	31	15	355	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	649	563	135	27	1	31	72	169	9	2	1	240	335	456	792	217	283	26	11	349	123	+17	+0	-7	-12	+14	1.3
2026	26	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	612	526	121	28	1	26	71	194	10	1	1	230	332	435	768	205	306	32	12	340	121	+15	-0	-3	-11	+13	1.5
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	2730	2397	545	126	5	106	280	738	34	6	3	227	317	417	733	189	280	27	10	326	107	+22	+0	-30	-56	+59	-0.6
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	21	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	—	177	155	30	7	1	8	15	43	4	1	0	194	282	406	688	213	203	24	8	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	AA MLE	Erie SeaWolves	—	212	182	42	10	0	11	23	59	3	1	1	231	327	467	794	236	251	28	11	335	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	A+ MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	—	141	116	30	9	1	5	17	39	4	3	2	259	372	483	855	224	313	28	12	367	135	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	404	360	74	16	1	8	37	99	5	0	1	206	289	322	611	117	255	25	9	281	76	-11	-0	-5	-10	+9	-1.8
2022	22	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	—	155	137	27	5	0	4	17	49	1	1	1	197	290	321	611	124	265	32	11	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	684	607	144	35	1	32	66	171	6	3	0	237	318	456	774	219	269	25	10	340	117	+13	+1	-11	-12	+15	0.6
2024	24	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	381	343	76	21	1	10	33	105	4	0	0	222	297	376	673	155	285	28	9	305	93	-3	+0	-4	-12	+8	-1.1
2024	24	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	—	275	239	45	10	0	10	29	100	2	1	0	188	281	356	637	167	255	36	11	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	649	569	138	28	1	32	66	169	9	2	1	243	331	464	795	221	283	26	10	349	123	+17	+0	-7	-12	+14	1.3
2026	26	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	612	527	124	29	1	27	71	194	10	1	1	235	337	448	785	213	306	32	12	347	121	+15	-0	-3	-11	+13	1.5
2021	21	AA MLE	4 teams	—	558	478	107	27	2	25	58	150	11	5	3	224	322	446	767	222	261	27	10	332	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	AA RAW	4 teams	—	558	451	124	31	2	30	85	119	11	5	3	275	402	552	954	277	300	21	15	409	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	559	497	100	21	1	12	54	148	6	1	2	201	287	320	607	119	260	26	10	277	73	-18	-1	-5	-10	+12	-2.2
2022	22	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	559	491	103	22	1	13	60	140	6	1	2	210	303	338	641	128	265	25	11	293	73	-18	-1	-5	-10	+12	-2.2
2023	23	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	684	607	144	35	1	32	66	171	6	3	0	237	318	456	774	219	274	25	10	340	117	+13	+1	-11	-12	+15	0.6
2023	23	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	—	684	606	141	34	1	31	67	171	6	3	0	233	315	446	761	213	269	25	10	335	117	+13	+1	-11	-12	+15	0.6
2024	24	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	656	582	123	32	1	21	62	205	6	1	0	211	294	378	672	167	282	31	9	297	87	-10	+0	-4	-12	+14	-1.1
2024	24	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	656	568	129	34	1	21	75	190	6	1	0	227	323	401	724	174	298	29	11	323	87	-10	+0	-4	-12	+14	-1.1
2025	25	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	649	569	138	28	1	32	66	169	9	2	1	243	331	464	795	221	284	26	10	349	123	+17	+0	-7	-12	+14	1.3
2025	25	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	—	649	563	135	27	1	31	72	169	9	2	1	240	335	456	792	217	283	26	11	349	123	+17	+0	-7	-12	+14	1.3
2026	26	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	612	527	124	29	1	27	71	194	10	1	1	235	337	448	785	213	313	32	12	347	121	+15	-0	-3	-11	+13	1.5
2026	26	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	—	612	526	121	28	1	26	71	194	10	1	1	230	332	435	768	205	306	32	12	340	121	+15	-0	-3	-11	+13	1.5
2021	21	AA MLE	4 teams	—	558	484	107	27	2	25	58	150	11	5	3	221	322	440	762	219	251	27	10	332	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	559	494	100	21	1	12	54	148	6	1	2	202	287	322	609	119	258	26	10	277	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	684	607	144	35	1	32	66	171	6	3	0	237	318	456	774	219	269	25	10	340	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	656	583	123	32	1	21	62	205	6	1	0	211	294	377	671	166	272	31	9	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	649	569	138	28	1	32	66	169	9	2	1	243	331	464	795	221	283	26	10	349	123	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	26	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	612	526	124	29	1	27	71	194	10	1	1	236	337	449	786	213	306	32	12	347	121	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	24	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	656	583	123	32	1	21	62	205	6	1	0	211	294	377	671	166	272	31	9	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	649	569	138	28	1	32	66	169	9	2	1	243	331	464	795	221	283	26	10	349	123	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	26	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	612	526	124	29	1	27	71	194	10	1	1	236	337	449	786	213	306	32	12	347	121	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	27	MLB MLE	DET	100%	612	532	115	26	1	25	66	176	9	2	1	217	314	412	725	195	269	29	11	322	104	+3	+0	+2	-11	+13	1.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	27	MLB CTX	DET	100%	612	532	113	25	1	24	66	176	9	2	1	212	309	400	709	188	264	29	11	316	104	+3	+0	+2	-11	+13	0.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	DET	100%	636	554	119	27	1	26	68	184	9	1	1	215	311	406	718	192	267	29	11	319	102	+2	-0	+1	-11	+14	0.5
2029	29	MLB MLE	DET	100%	623	542	116	26	1	25	67	182	9	1	0	212	308	399	707	187	265	29	11	315	100	-0	+0	+0	-11	+13	0.2
2030	30	MLB MLE	DET	100%	611	533	112	25	1	24	65	181	8	1	0	208	304	390	693	182	261	30	11	310	96	-3	+0	-1	-11	+13	-0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	DET	100%	636	554	117	26	1	25	68	184	9	1	1	210	307	395	702	184	262	29	11	313	102	+2	-0	+1	-11	+14	0.5
2029	29	MLB CTX	DET	100%	623	542	113	25	1	24	67	182	9	1	0	207	304	388	692	180	260	29	11	309	100	-0	+0	+0	-11	+13	0.2
2030	30	MLB CTX	DET	100%	611	533	109	24	1	23	65	181	8	1	0	204	300	378	678	175	256	30	11	304	96	-3	+0	-1	-11	+13	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	4600	4026	884	201	8	178	480	1285	60	9	4	220	312	406	718	187	273	28	10	319	104	+20	+0	-30	-90	+100	0.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	569	124	28	1	25	68	182	8	1	1	218	310	402	713	185	270	28	10	319	104	+3	+0	-4	-13	+14	0.0
Career	—	MLE		—	6200	5421	1198	276	11	249	643	1760	83	18	9	221	313	414	727	193	275	28	10	321	104	+23	+0	-28	-101	+113	0.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	568	125	29	1	26	67	185	9	2	1	220	312	412	724	192	273	28	10	321	104	+3	+0	-3	-13	+14	0.1

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Carlos Penalast yr '14 career totals — 13 seasons, 5,856 PA	8.8	5,856	285	29	231	346	462	-98	-110	14.3	15.3
/162	664	32	3	-11.2	-12.5	1.6	pk7: 16
#2Deron Johnson'60-'76 * career totals — 13 seasons, 6,620 PA	10.0	6,620	245	11	243*	312*	456*	-92	-45	7.1	10.2
/162	664	25	1	-9.2	-4.5	0.7	pk7: 13
#3Chris Davislast yr '20 career totals — 13 seasons, 5,630 PA	8.5	5,630	295	19	233	315	459	-96	-102	6.3	9.8
/162	664	35	2	-11.3	-12.0	0.7	pk7: 13
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 9 projected seasons	7.8	5,212	205	11	222	311	412	-93	-79	7.1	7.7
/162	664	26	1	-11.9	-10.0	0.9	pk7: 8
#4Nick Esasky'83-'90 * career totals — 7 seasons, 3,064 PA	4.6	3,064	122	18	248*	329*	480*	-33	-30	6.9	7.1
/162	664	26	4	-7.2	-6.5	1.5	pk7: 7
#5Greg Walker'82-'90 * career totals — 7 seasons, 3,177 PA	4.8	3,177	113	19	257*	326*	467*	-59	-36	4.1	5.0
/162	664	24	4	-12.4	-7.5	0.9	pk7: 6
#6Justin Smoaklast yr '20 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,750 PA	7.2	4,750	196	3	229	322	419	-85	-77	1.9	3.9
/162	664	27	0	-11.9	-10.7	0.3	pk7: 6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Spencer Torkelson (OGILVIE)	27	45	55	45	60	215/311/408	193	269	25	2	29%	11%	104	+1.7	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕David Villar 2024 · MLB	27	42→44	56→60	46→40	47	223/308/415	192	286	25	5	30%	9%	104	+1.6	219/296/353	134	293	15	5	29%	9%	84	+0.2	211/289/324	113	284	13	2	29%	9%	74	-0.4
✕Luken Baker 2024 · MLB	27	41→47	57→60	45→30	46	225/292/415	190	274	26	2	28%	8%	98	+1.2	203/282/380	177	256	23	2	29%	10%	86	+0.3	178/263/342	163	225	21	1	30%	10%	69	-0.6
✕Kennys Vargas 2018 · MLB	27	44→53	54→55	47→30	49	230/305/407	177	291	23	2	29%	10%	101	+1.4	223/287/390	167	290	22	4	30%	8%	90	+0.6	205/268/365	160	263	22	0	31%	7%	76	-0.4
✕Tommy Joseph 2018 · MLB	27	46→48	57→60	43→30	44	245/292/438	193	276	25	3	22%	6%	103	+1.6	236/290/408	172	290	22	4	26%	6%	95	+1.0	226/283/412	186	268	26	0	26%	5%	92	+0.5
✕Ryan Mountcastle 2024 · MLB	27	48→55	54→60	45→40	45	249/306/423	174	299	23	5	25%	7%	104	+1.6	254/301/402	148	316	16	5	24%	6%	97	+1.1	256/299/397	140	321	15	4	24%	5%	95	+0.7
✕Ike Davis 2014 · MLB	27	43→53	56→60	45→40	55	229/318/423	194	271	24	4	25%	12%	109	+2.0	225/312/372	147	273	16	3	22%	11%	95	+1.0	218/303/348	130	265	14	0	22%	11%	86	+0.2
✕Casper Wells 2012 · MLB	27	44	57→60	44→50	42	231/296/435	204	293	24	8	30%	7%	104	+1.6	216/288/368	152	280	16	7	27%	8%	85	+0.2	204/285/349	145	259	14	5	26%	9%	80	-0.1
✕Matt Mervis 2024 · MLB	26	44→48	55	47→45	47	231/304/418	187	281	23	4	26%	8%	103	+1.5	208/276/387	179	272	23	6	32%	7%	86	+0.3	183/251/362	179	237	24	6	34%	7%	69	-0.6
✕DJ Stewart 2022 · MLB	28	42→49	54→60	42→50	56	219/324/399	180	269	22	4	27%	12%	106	+1.8	220/322/398	178	276	23	6	28%	11%	105	+1.7	205/316/378	174	254	24	6	28%	11%	98	+0.6
✕Andrew Brown 2012 · MLB	27	46	53→55	42→40	44	238/302/403	165	309	22	5	30%	8%	99	+1.2	231/292/411	180	300	22	5	29%	7%	97	+1.1	224/286/408	184	282	22	3	28%	7%	94	+0.7
✕Greg Bird 2019 · MLB	26	39→49	55→60	46→30	52	212/299/398	186	245	22	3	24%	10%	97	+1.1	213/294/378	165	267	20	4	27%	10%	90	+0.6	181/254/316	135	232	17	1	29%	8%	59	-1.0
✕Jabari Blash 2017 · MLB	28	39→41	55→60	46→50	46	207/302/394	187	288	24	7	35%	10%	97	+1.1	215/316/411	196	319	25	8	37%	11%	106	+1.8	205/313/411	206	301	27	7	38%	12%	102	+1.1
●Tyler White 2018 · MLB	27	46→56	53→60	43→40	47	240/303/410	170	284	22	5	24%	8%	100	+1.3	248/327/420	172	299	20	4	23%	10%	112	+2.2	242/336/400	158	289	17	1	21%	11%	110	+1.4
✕Shelley Duncan 2008 · MLB	28	41→44	58→60	43→45	44	228/285/427	200	260	28	4	26%	7%	98	+1.2	224/293/416	192	258	25	5	24%	8%	99	+1.2	223/294/408	186	254	24	2	23%	8%	96	+0.8
✕Tyler Austin 2019 · MLB	27	44→54	59→65	44→45	41	234/290/448	214	307	28	4	33%	7%	105	+1.7	228/300/431	203	316	27	9	35%	9%	104	+1.6	204/297/412	208	284	29	11	37%	12%	99	+0.5
✕Kyle Lewis 2023 · MLB	28	42→48	54→55	49→40	50	225/307/394	170	280	24	7	29%	10%	99	+1.2	251/317/419	168	321	22	5	27%	8%	107	+1.9	273/336/441	168	351	22	0	27%	8%	116	+1.5
✕J.J. Jurries 2006 · AAA	27	47→46	56→60	46→40	41	242/299/437	195	315	24	5	31%	7%	105	+1.7	210/270/345	135	304	16	6	34%	7%	73	-0.6	168/231/260	93	253	11	3	37%	6%	37	-1.9
✕Blaine Crim 2023 · AAA	26	47→49	54→55	47→45	43	246/298/418	172	282	24	4	23%	6%	101	+1.4	239/304/394	155	285	18	4	22%	7%	97	+1.1	231/301/384	153	276	17	4	22%	8%	92	+0.7
●Ryan O'Hearn 2020 · MLB	27	40→50	55→60	45	47	216/287/400	184	268	23	2	28%	9%	93	+0.8	226/291/397	171	280	22	4	27%	8%	93	+0.8	268/340/432	164	304	21	3	19%	9%	120	+2.3
●Jeff Bailey 2007 · AAA	28	44→48	52→55	45	47	230/307/400	170	283	21	4	26%	8%	100	+1.3	228/308/392	164	276	20	7	24%	9%	98	+1.2	222/307/385	163	264	20	6	23%	9%	94	+0.7

Spencer Torkelson

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps