Luis Peralta — OGILVIE

Luis Peralta P Iowa Cubs

Age 25 LHP 5'11" / 203 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION42 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130138vR 146

ERA5.92

FIP5.93

K%20.0%

BB%17.6%

K-BB%2.4%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 48 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL2020

CMD3030

K†4550

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5194.6

Whiff%

p1820.8%

p1015.8%

xwOBA vs

p100.438

CU (27%)

CH (2%)

FB-9.4 (71%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	17	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates 2	19	4	48	218	62	26	2	21%	2.5	19.3%	14.9%	4.4%	1.3%	5.62	4.06	—
2018	17	ROK RAW	DSL Pirates 2	19	4	48	218	62	26	2	21%	2.5	28.4%	11.9%	16.5%	0.9%	5.62	2.68	—
2019	18	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates 1	14	6	40	163	34	16	3	43%	2.9	14.2%	12.3%	1.9%	2.6%	2.01	4.87	—
2019	18	ROK RAW	DSL Pirates 1	14	6	40	163	34	16	3	43%	2.9	20.9%	9.8%	11.0%	1.8%	2.01	3.57	—
2021	20	ROK MLE	FCL Pirates Gold	9	7	29	124	36	18	1	78%	3.2	19.7%	18.1%	1.6%	1.2%	3.41	4.39	—
2021	20	ROK RAW	FCL Pirates Gold	9	7	29	124	36	18	1	78%	3.2	29.0%	14.5%	14.5%	0.8%	3.41	2.93	—
2022	21	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	19	18	60	283	97	44	9	95%	3.2	25.4%	18.3%	7.0%	3.7%	6.41	5.33	—
2022	21	A RAW	Bradenton Marauders	19	18	60	283	97	44	9	95%	3.2	34.3%	15.5%	18.7%	3.2%	6.41	4.01	—
2023	22	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	23	9	53	241	67	35	4	39%	2.3	20.6%	17.1%	3.4%	2.2%	4.96	4.75	—
2023	22	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	23	9	53	241	67	35	4	39%	2.3	20.6%	17.1%	3.4%	2.2%	4.96	4.75	—
2023	22	A RAW	Bradenton Marauders	23	9	53	241	67	35	4	39%	2.3	27.8%	14.5%	13.3%	1.7%	4.96	3.54	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	4 levels	47	0	60	236	89	26	2	0%	1.3	31.7%	12.4%	19.2%	1.4%	0.90	2.79	+1.3
2024	23	MIX MLE	4 levels	47	0	60	236	89	26	2	0%	1.3	31.7%	12.4%	19.2%	1.4%	0.90	2.79	+1.3
2024	23	MIX RAW	4 levels	47	0	60	236	89	26	2	0%	1.3	37.7%	11.0%	26.7%	0.8%	0.90	1.87	+2.0
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	56	0	54	283	67	46	12	0%	1.0	20.6%	15.3%	5.3%	4.2%	9.22	5.58	-0.6
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	56	0	54	283	67	46	12	0%	1.0	20.6%	15.3%	5.3%	4.2%	9.22	5.58	-0.6
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	56	0	54	283	67	46	12	0%	1.0	23.7%	16.3%	7.4%	4.2%	9.22	6.08	-1.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			37	0	31	150	30	23	6	0%	0.8	20.0%	15.3%	4.7%	4.0%	6.03	5.88	-0.5
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	35	1	42	205	63	41	7	3%	1.2	25.5%	18.0%	7.5%	3.8%	8.79	5.29	—
YTD	25	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	35	1	42	205	63	41	7	3%	1.2	25.5%	18.0%	7.5%	3.8%	8.79	5.29	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	AAA RAW	CHC	35	1	42	205	63	41	7	3%	1.2	30.7%	20.0%	10.7%	3.4%	8.79	4.91	—
ROS	25	MLB MLE	CHC	5	0	6	24	5	4	1	0%	1.1	20.0%	17.6%	2.4%	3.5%	5.92	5.93	-0.1
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	CHC	—	—	48	229	68	45	8	—	—	29.6%	19.8%	9.9%	3.4%	8.45	5.36	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	CHC	64	0	67	282	58	47	10	0%	1.0	20.5%	16.7%	3.8%	3.4%	5.75	5.75	-0.9
2028	27	MLB MLE	CHC	63	0	66	277	57	45	10	0%	1.0	20.7%	16.2%	4.5%	3.4%	5.67	5.68	-0.8
2029	28	MLB MLE	CHC	61	0	64	269	56	43	9	0%	1.0	20.7%	16.0%	4.7%	3.5%	5.66	5.70	-0.8
2027	26	MLB CTX	CHC	30	0	32	135	28	23	5	0%	1.1	20.5%	16.7%	3.8%	3.4%	5.75	5.75	-0.4
2028	27	MLB CTX	CHC	41	0	43	182	38	29	6	0%	1.0	20.7%	16.2%	4.5%	3.4%	5.67	5.68	-0.5
2029	28	MLB CTX	CHC	47	0	49	207	43	33	7	0%	1.0	20.7%	16.0%	4.7%	3.5%	5.66	5.70	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		156	0	157	679	139	109	24	0%	1.0	20.5%	16.1%	4.4%	3.6%	5.76	5.38	-1.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		200	0	200	867	177	139	31	0%	1.0	20.5%	16.1%	4.4%	3.6%	5.76	5.38	-1.9
Career	—	MLE		222	45	386	1753	396	278	47	20%	1.7	22.6%	15.8%	6.8%	2.7%	5.22	4.68	-3.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		115	23	200	908	205	144	24	20%	1.7	22.6%	15.8%	6.8%	2.7%	5.22	4.68	-2.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Peralta (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.93	20.0%	17.6%	3.5%	—	5.71	20.6%	4.3%	196	-0.22	—	—	—
Tyler Matzek L 2016 · 4.73 FIP	25	SU	4.73	22.2%	21.3%	1.5%	.320	—	—	—	—	—	1.60	190	75
Jackson Lancaster L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	24	SU	5.14	18.9%	17.6%	2.6%	.315	5.15	19.7%	6.8%	122	+0.01	4.15	142	74
Graeme Stinson L 2023 · 4.85 FIP	25	SU	4.85	19.5%	15.6%	2.6%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	146	71
Fabian Williamson L 2015 · 5.31 FIP	26	SU	5.31	17.4%	17.9%	2.6%	.289	4.16	20.0%	8.2%	77	-1.15	3.39	154	71
John Kilichowski L 2018 · 4.99 FIP	24	SU	4.99	17.6%	16.2%	2.4%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	4.10	115	70
Ty Madrigal L 2022 · 5.75 FIP	25	SU	5.75	17.6%	15.2%	4.0%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	107	70
Mitchell Tyranski L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	25	SU	5.14	20.4%	13.6%	3.7%	.269	4.10	20.7%	6.1%	103	-1.04	3.46	145	70
Davis Schwab L 2022 · 5.70 FIP	25	SU	5.70	20.3%	18.7%	3.5%	.352	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	114	69
Gil Luna L 2023 · 5.37 FIP	24	SU	5.37	22.5%	24.5%	1.9%	.303	4.95	19.7%	-6.0%	73	-0.42	4.57	113	69
Julian Bosnic L 2023 · 5.72 FIP	23	SU	5.72	22.5%	21.0%	3.4%	.206	4.74	19.1%	-0.1%	90	-0.98	4.31	136	69
Nick Lee L 2016 · 4.96 FIP	25	SU	4.96	19.0%	19.7%	1.8%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	3.77	102	69
Brian Marconi L 2022 · 5.02 FIP	25	SU	5.02	20.3%	18.2%	2.4%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.89	101	69
Nicolo Pinazzi L 2023 · 6.79 FIP	23	SU	6.79	19.3%	26.9%	3.5%	.307	2.58	30.1%	16.3%	62	-4.21	2.58	155	68
Yoan Aybar L 2022 · 6.04 FIP	25	SU	6.04	20.9%	19.7%	4.0%	.318	—	—	—	—	—	3.41	166	68
Eric Torres L 2023 · 6.62 FIP	23	SU	6.62	21.2%	19.8%	5.1%	.283	4.18	26.5%	10.4%	56	-2.44	2.81	155	68
Chris Reed L 2015 · 4.92 FIP	25	SU	4.92	15.4%	14.5%	2.3%	.284	4.67	16.4%	6.6%	81	-0.25	4.67	137	67
Aaron Brown L 2017 · 4.96 FIP	25	SU	4.96	15.0%	17.6%	1.6%	.348	4.38	19.8%	5.2%	127	-0.58	4.04	269	67
Matt Mikulski L 2023 · 6.17 FIP	24	SW	6.17	16.4%	18.6%	3.8%	.303	5.90	16.3%	-3.3%	78	-0.27	4.92	223	66
Chris Nunn L 2015 · 5.49 FIP	24	SU	5.49	13.9%	16.8%	2.6%	.350	3.92	19.3%	6.7%	37	-1.57	3.30	180	66
Evan Shawver L 2023 · 5.78 FIP	23	SW	5.78	15.9%	16.5%	3.5%	.327	4.11	18.1%	7.1%	162	-1.67	3.92	278	66

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	66	20.5%	16.7%	1.34	5.75
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Michael Kopech ('24)	1.9	96	26.1%	12.5%	1.45	4.15
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99