Allan Cerda

OF Wichita Wind Surge

Age 27 R/R 6'2" / 230 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2036

MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	24	AASF	105	.185/.286/.391	5	1	39	—	.146/.219/.302
2024	24	A+SF	16	.214/.312/.714	2	0	53	—	.143/.250/.429
2025	25	AAMIN	35	.125/.200/.312	1	0	-15	—	.121/.171/.303
2027PROJ2% MLB	27	MLBMIN	3	.206/.272/.338	0	0	71	-0.0
2028PROJ27% MLB	28	MLBMIN	56	.206/.273/.337	1	1	71	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$0.9M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$3M2034Ext$5M+1

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2024 AA

BB%86

ISO84

Speed76

Chase%52

wOBA46

wRC+43

CompsAndrés Alvarez (age 27) · Camden Duzenack (age 27) · Joe DeCarlo (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†71

AVG/OBP/SLG.206 / .272 / .338

PA3

HR0

K%33

BB%7

BABIP277

ISO129

MLB%2%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2018	18	ROK	DSL Reds	—	214	173	47	11	0	6	25	45	14	3	2	272	406	439	845	168	331	21	12	381	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	A+	Dayton Dragons	—	87	77	21	8	1	3	10	20	0	1	1	273	356	519	876	247	333	23	11	382	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	A	Daytona Tortugas	—	276	227	55	14	4	14	31	85	14	1	7	242	368	524	892	282	311	31	11	385	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	257	207	41	9	0	11	42	77	7	4	1	198	352	401	753	203	250	30	16	342	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A+	Dayton Dragons	—	249	201	44	13	1	13	42	91	6	3	3	219	369	488	857	269	320	37	17	379	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	193	155	28	7	0	6	31	71	7	5	6	181	342	342	684	161	282	37	16	320	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	A+	Dayton Dragons	—	30	21	5	1	0	0	7	8	1	0	0	238	448	286	734	48	357	27	23	351	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	A	Daytona Tortugas	—	22	21	3	0	1	1	1	7	0	0	0	143	182	381	563	238	154	32	5	241	-7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	ROK	ACL Reds	—	27	17	4	1	0	3	10	8	0	1	0	235	519	824	1.342	588	167	30	37	537	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AA	Richmond Flying Squirrels	—	105	92	17	2	1	5	13	32	0	1	0	185	286	391	677	207	218	30	12	303	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	A+	Eugene Emeralds	—	16	14	3	1	0	2	1	7	1	0	0	214	312	714	1.027	500	200	44	6	430	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AA	Wichita Wind Surge	—	35	32	4	1	1	1	3	15	0	0	0	125	200	312	512	188	188	43	9	228	-15	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2018	18	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	—	214	181	29	6	0	3	17	55	14	3	2	160	283	243	526	83	201	26	8	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	87	80	16	6	1	2	7	27	0	1	1	200	264	375	639	175	269	31	8	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	—	276	237	43	10	3	11	21	111	14	1	7	181	287	388	675	207	258	40	8	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	257	220	35	7	0	9	29	93	7	4	1	159	277	314	591	155	215	36	11	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	249	212	32	8	1	9	31	110	6	3	3	151	277	325	603	175	237	44	12	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	193	166	22	6	0	4	20	90	7	5	6	133	254	241	495	108	247	47	10	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	30	23	5	1	0	0	5	10	1	0	0	217	379	261	640	43	323	33	17	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	—	22	21	3	0	1	1	1	9	0	0	0	143	182	381	563	238	128	41	5	158	-7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	—	27	21	3	1	0	2	6	11	0	1	0	143	333	476	810	333	96	41	22	355	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	—	105	96	14	1	1	4	9	38	0	1	0	146	219	302	521	156	191	36	9	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Eugene Emeralds	—	16	14	2	1	0	1	1	10	1	0	0	143	250	429	679	286	159	62	6	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	—	35	33	4	1	1	1	2	19	0	0	0	121	171	303	474	182	154	54	6	146	-15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	18	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	—	214	181	29	6	0	3	17	55	14	3	2	160	283	243	526	83	208	26	8	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	18	ROK RAW	DSL Reds	—	214	173	47	11	0	6	25	45	14	3	2	272	406	439	845	168	331	21	12	381	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	363	317	59	16	4	13	28	139	14	2	8	186	281	385	666	199	272	38	8	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	A RAW	2 teams	—	363	304	76	22	5	17	41	105	14	2	8	250	365	523	888	273	317	29	11	384	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	506	432	67	15	1	18	60	203	13	7	4	155	277	319	597	164	231	40	12	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	AA RAW	2 teams	—	506	408	85	22	1	24	84	168	13	7	4	208	360	444	804	235	281	33	17	360	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AA MLE	4 teams	—	272	232	32	7	1	7	31	121	8	6	6	138	262	267	529	129	238	44	11	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AA RAW	4 teams	—	272	214	40	9	1	10	49	94	8	6	6	187	358	379	736	192	270	35	18	339	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	121	110	16	2	1	5	10	48	1	1	0	145	223	318	541	173	193	40	8	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AA RAW	2 teams	—	121	106	20	3	1	7	14	39	1	1	0	189	289	434	723	245	217	32	12	320	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	—	35	33	4	1	1	1	2	19	0	0	0	121	171	303	474	182	231	54	6	146	-15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AA RAW	Wichita Wind Surge	—	35	32	4	1	1	1	3	15	0	0	0	125	200	312	512	188	188	43	9	228	-15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	18	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	—	214	181	29	6	0	3	17	55	14	3	2	160	283	243	526	83	201	26	8	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	363	318	59	16	4	13	28	139	14	2	8	186	281	384	665	198	261	38	8	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	506	428	67	15	1	18	60	203	13	7	4	157	277	322	600	166	226	40	12	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AA MLE	4 teams	—	272	231	32	7	1	7	31	121	8	6	6	139	262	268	530	130	231	44	11	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	121	109	16	2	1	5	10	48	1	1	0	147	223	321	544	174	187	40	8	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	—	35	33	4	1	1	1	2	19	0	0	0	121	171	303	474	182	154	54	6	146	-15	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	121	109	16	2	1	5	10	48	1	1	0	147	223	321	544	174	187	40	8	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	—	35	33	4	1	1	1	2	19	0	0	0	121	171	303	474	182	154	54	6	146	-15	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	27	MLB MLE	MIN	2%	200	181	37	7	1	5	15	61	2	3	1	206	272	337	610	132	277	30	8	274	71	-7	+0	+0	-1	+4	-0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	27	MLB CTX	MIN	2%	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	206	272	338	610	132	277	33	0	274	71	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	MIN	27%	207	188	38	7	1	5	15	63	2	3	1	206	273	336	609	130	277	30	7	273	71	-7	+0	-1	-1	+4	-0.4
2028	28	MLB CTX	MIN	27%	56	52	10	2	0	1	4	17	0	1	0	206	273	337	610	131	277	30	7	274	71	-2	+0	-0	-0	+1	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	56	52	10	2	0	1	4	17	0	1	0	192	250	288	538	96	265	30	7	274	62	-2	+0	-0	-0	+1	-0.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	604	116	23	0	12	46	197	0	12	0	192	249	290	539	98	263	30	7	274	62	-22	+2	-2	-4	+14	-1.2
Career	—	MLE		—	1854	1617	271	59	10	55	173	689	53	24	22	168	270	318	588	151	245	37	9	260	62	-12	+0	-1	-2	+7	-0.7
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	567	96	21	4	19	61	242	19	8	8	169	272	321	593	152	248	37	9	260	62	-22	+0	-1	-4	+14	-1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Allan Cerda (OGILVIE)	27	—	—	—	—	204/270/334	131	277	3	2	30%	7%	71	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Andrés Alvarez 2024 · AA	27	37→32	45	51→50	42	191/256/309	118	267	13	13	33%	7%	59	-1.6	214/278/326	112	303	11	11	31%	7%	71	-0.8	220/290/326	106	314	9	12	31%	8%	72	-0.3
✕Camden Duzenack 2022 · AAA	27	37→36	48→50	51→50	35	198/244/333	135	278	17	9	35%	5%	60	-1.6	220/268/348	128	280	13	11	26%	5%	73	-0.6	218/269/343	125	269	13	10	23%	5%	69	-0.5
✕Joe DeCarlo 2021 · AA	27	40→38	42→50	47→30	40	197/265/297	100	289	10	5	34%	7%	60	-1.6	200/259/291	91	299	9	7	34%	7%	56	-1.9	160/219/212	52	241	7	0	35%	7%	21	-1.4
✕Johan Mieses 2021 · AAA	26	37→33	50→55	49→50	41	203/260/349	146	252	19	7	28%	6%	71	-0.8	214/287/385	171	278	22	9	31%	8%	89	+0.5	197/278/378	180	249	24	7	31%	8%	81	-0.0
✕Jake Means 2023 · AA	27	34→31	46→45	51→45	43	180/255/306	126	258	14	9	35%	8%	59	-1.6	183/252/297	114	256	13	10	32%	8%	56	-1.9	128/203/219	91	164	14	8	32%	7%	19	-2.0
✕Davis Wendzel 2023 · AAA	26	36→32	48→50	43→40	42	193/258/328	135	252	17	5	31%	7%	65	-1.2	199/277/337	138	247	17	5	26%	8%	75	-0.5	194/271/323	128	229	14	4	22%	7%	67	-0.6
✕Quincy Latimore 2016 · AA	27	44→42	47→50	47→50	41	223/271/361	138	284	14	10	27%	6%	77	-0.3	205/254/329	124	273	14	7	29%	6%	63	-1.4	190/240/300	110	251	14	4	30%	6%	48	-1.8
✕Brendon Davis 2024 · AAA	27	38→45	49→50	46→50	44	199/273/349	150	262	17	9	30%	8%	76	-0.4	195/275/309	114	269	11	17	30%	8%	68	-1.0	174/261/272	98	240	9	22	29%	8%	52	-1.8
✕Grae Kessinger 2024 · MLB	26	40→30	45	46→50	48	204/282/322	118	264	14	13	28%	9%	73	-0.6	200/274/299	99	273	9	11	28%	9%	64	-1.3	159/229/234	75	220	6	10	29%	7%	30	-1.6
✕McCarthy Tatum 2023 · AA	27	35→25	44→50	49→50	35	182/236/299	117	270	12	9	36%	5%	50	-2.3	212/272/323	111	293	10	10	30%	5%	69	-0.9	212/282/301	88	289	5	9	26%	4%	65	-0.3
✕Brian Serven 2022 · AAA	27	36	49→50	47→30	39	196/249/341	145	242	18	5	28%	5%	65	-1.2	199/261/319	120	261	14	4	28%	7%	63	-1.3	212/290/326	114	302	11	1	31%	8%	74	-0.3
✕Quincy McAfee 2024 · AA	26	38	46→45	46→45	46	196/281/327	130	253	13	9	27%	8%	74	-0.5	203/272/330	127	250	14	11	24%	6%	71	-0.8	170/237/280	109	197	14	12	22%	5%	43	-1.3
✕Narciso Crook 2022 · AAA	27	43	48→50	49→50	40	215/283/359	144	309	15	12	34%	7%	82	-0.0	208/283/352	144	321	16	15	38%	7%	80	-0.2	194/272/335	141	307	16	17	39%	7%	69	-0.6
✕Connor Kaiser 2023 · AA	26	38	47→45	52→50	42	196/260/323	127	273	15	12	33%	8%	65	-1.2	197/275/307	110	300	10	14	35%	9%	66	-1.1	186/271/290	104	286	8	12	35%	10%	58	-1.0
✕Colt Morton 2009 · MLB	27	37	46→50	47→30	41	192/258/319	128	270	14	4	33%	7%	63	-1.4	202/257/334	132	277	15	7	31%	6%	65	-1.2	161/211/333	171	188	22	0	29%	5%	46	-0.5
✕Caleb Hamilton 2022 · AAA	27	36	44→45	47→45	44	181/259/292	111	272	12	9	36%	9%	57	-1.8	177/261/302	125	271	15	6	38%	10%	61	-1.5	140/232/254	115	204	16	3	39%	10%	37	-1.0
✕Taylor Featherston 2017 · MLB	27	41→46	46→50	49→50	38	209/254/341	132	265	14	11	27%	4%	66	-1.1	188/245/307	119	285	13	11	37%	5%	55	-2.0	164/223/274	110	271	13	10	43%	5%	37	-2.1
✕Aaron Sisk 2007 · AA	28	38	48→50	48→45	42	202/257/341	139	258	16	10	29%	7%	68	-1.0	217/272/358	141	276	17	8	27%	6%	76	-0.4	214/269/360	145	260	20	3	26%	6%	75	-0.2
✕Weston Wilson 2021 · AA	26	39→42	47→55	49→55	43	203/261/335	132	261	16	10	28%	7%	67	-1.1	211/274/359	148	283	19	18	31%	8%	78	-0.3	204/282/368	164	260	22	25	30%	9%	82	-0.0
✕Taylor Snyder 2022 · AAA	27	37→33	53→50	52→50	38	202/251/373	171	268	22	13	34%	6%	73	-0.6	182/238/313	131	283	16	14	40%	7%	54	-2.0	136/196/230	95	228	12	16	45%	7%	16	-1.8