Max Meyer

P Miami Marlins

Age 28 RHP 6'0" / 196 lbs MLB Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 1.3 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP40-MANArb-1FA 2031

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	MIX2 levels	26	26	115	5.01	4.82	22.9%	8.5%	0.1	K 20.9% · BB 8.1% · FIP 5.13
2025	26	MLBMIA	12	12	65	4.73	4.34	23.9%	7.0%	0.4
2026	27	MLBMIA	20	20	111	2.68	3.32	26.2%	8.9%	2.2
2027PROJ	28	MLBMIA	15	15	91	4.13	4.21	25.0%	8.3%	0.7
2028PROJ95% MLB	29	MLBMIA	14	14	82	4.18	4.28	24.4%	8.5%	0.5
2029PROJ95% MLB	30	MLBMIA	13	13	77	4.35	4.48	23.8%	8.8%	0.3

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.7 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2030Service2.965First FA2031Super-2

2027Arb-1$2M2028Arb-2$2M2029Arb-3$3M2030Arb-4$4M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

K%72

Whiff%71

FB Velo58

xwOBA vs58

CompsMatt Shoemaker (age 28) · Chase Anderson (age 28) · Anthony DeSclafani (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109100vR 92

ERA4.13

FIP4.21

K%25.0%

BB%8.3%

K-BB%16.7%

Proj IP91

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 91 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$3M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5555

CMD5050

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5895.1

Whiff%

p7128.6%

p7226.2%

xwOBA vs

p580.304

CH+1.7 (10%)

SI (10%)

SL-0.5 (56%)

FB-1.2 (34%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2022

Service 2.965 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-1	$2M	+0.7	$3M	+$0.9M
2028	Arb-2	$2M	+0.5	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Arb-3	$3M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-4	$4M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$7M	+$0.9M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	111	454	130	42	8	100%	5.0	22.0%	10.6%	11.4%	2.0%	2.27	3.68	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	22	111	454	130	42	8	100%	5.0	28.6%	9.3%	19.4%	1.8%	2.27	2.83	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	15	15	67	266	75	21	7	100%	4.5	25.0%	8.7%	16.3%	2.3%	4.03	3.37	+1.2
2022	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	15	15	67	266	75	21	7	100%	4.5	28.2%	7.9%	20.3%	2.6%	4.03	3.16	+1.4
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	115	503	115	43	23	100%	4.4	20.9%	8.1%	12.9%	5.1%	5.01	5.13	-0.3
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	115	503	115	43	23	100%	4.4	20.9%	8.1%	12.9%	5.1%	5.01	5.13	-0.3
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	115	503	115	43	23	100%	4.4	22.9%	8.5%	14.3%	4.6%	5.01	4.82	+0.1
2025	26	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	12	12	65	285	68	20	12	100%	5.4	23.9%	7.0%	16.8%	4.4%	4.73	4.41	+0.4
2025	26	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	12	12	65	285	68	20	12	100%	5.4	23.9%	7.0%	16.8%	4.4%	4.73	4.41	+0.4
2025	26	MLB RAW	Miami Marlins	12	12	65	285	68	20	12	100%	5.4	23.9%	7.0%	16.8%	4.2%	4.73	4.34	+0.4
2026	27	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	20	20	111	462	121	41	11	100%	5.5	26.2%	8.9%	17.3%	2.5%	2.68	3.39	+2.1
2026	27	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	20	20	111	462	121	41	11	100%	5.5	26.2%	8.9%	17.3%	2.5%	2.68	3.39	+2.1
2026	27	MLB RAW	Miami Marlins	20	20	111	462	121	41	11	100%	5.5	26.2%	8.9%	17.3%	2.4%	2.68	3.32	+2.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			45	45	239	1021	241	82	39	100%	5.3	23.6%	8.0%	15.6%	3.8%	4.07	4.24	+1.9
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	MIA	15	15	91	384	96	32	13	100%	6.1	25.0%	8.3%	16.7%	3.3%	4.13	4.21	+0.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	MIA	14	14	87	366	90	31	12	100%	6.2	24.4%	8.5%	15.9%	3.4%	4.27	4.37	+0.5
2029	30	MLB MLE	MIA	14	14	82	344	82	30	12	100%	5.8	23.8%	8.8%	14.9%	3.6%	4.45	4.58	+0.3
2030	31	MLB MLE	MIA	13	13	76	321	80	27	12	100%	5.8	25.0%	8.4%	16.6%	3.8%	4.50	4.54	+0.3
2031	32	MLB MLE	MIA	12	12	70	297	72	26	12	100%	5.9	24.2%	8.8%	15.4%	4.1%	4.67	4.79	+0.1
2028	29	MLB CTX	MIA	14	14	82	346	85	30	11	100%	5.9	24.4%	8.5%	15.9%	3.2%	4.18	4.28	+0.5
2029	30	MLB CTX	MIA	13	13	77	325	77	29	11	100%	5.9	23.8%	8.8%	14.9%	3.4%	4.35	4.48	+0.3
2030	31	MLB CTX	MIA	12	12	72	304	76	26	11	100%	6.0	25.0%	8.4%	16.6%	3.6%	4.39	4.43	+0.3
2031	32	MLB CTX	MIA	11	11	67	283	68	25	11	100%	6.1	24.2%	8.8%	15.4%	3.9%	4.56	4.68	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		95	95	537	2282	548	191	84	100%	5.7	24.0%	8.4%	15.6%	3.7%	4.23	4.14	+4.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	849	204	71	31	100%	5.7	24.0%	8.4%	15.6%	3.7%	4.23	4.14	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		95	95	469	1970	461	173	65	100%	4.9	23.4%	8.8%	14.6%	3.3%	3.63	4.04	+3.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		41	41	200	841	197	74	28	100%	4.9	23.4%	8.8%	14.6%	3.3%	3.63	4.04	+1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Max Meyer (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.21	25.0%	8.3%	3.3%	—	4.49	24.4%	15.8%	244	+0.28	—	—	—
Matt Shoemaker R 2015 · 4.38 FIP	28	SP	4.38	20.4%	5.8%	4.1%	.280	3.74	21.8%	15.9%	269	-0.64	3.12	728	74
Chase Anderson R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	28	SP	4.83	18.5%	8.2%	4.1%	.285	4.25	21.3%	13.3%	438	-0.58	3.30	1,260	72
Anthony DeSclafani R 2018 · 4.47 FIP	28	SP	4.47	22.3%	5.8%	4.6%	.290	3.95	22.6%	16.0%	368	-0.52	3.38	1,014	67
Brian Edgington R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	19.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.321	5.28	19.3%	7.0%	58	+1.29	3.99	171	65
David Phelps R 2015 · 3.94 FIP	28	SP	3.94	16.0%	6.8%	2.4%	.299	2.82	29.9%	20.6%	142	-1.12	2.50	672	65
Zack Godley R 2018 · 3.56 FIP	28	SP	3.56	23.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.315	5.07	17.6%	6.5%	219	+1.51	3.21	953	64
Domingo Germán R 2021 · 4.05 FIP	28	SP-	4.05	23.9%	6.6%	3.9%	.269	4.52	21.8%	13.7%	277	+0.47	3.29	777	64
Jacob deGrom R 2016 · 3.22 FIP	28	SP	3.22	23.7%	6.0%	2.5%	.310	2.46	31.0%	25.4%	622	-0.76	0.74	1,692	63
Brad Peacock R 2016 · 3.97 FIP	28	SP-	3.97	20.9%	8.7%	2.8%	.302	3.45	29.4%	20.4%	289	-0.52	2.97	748	62
Félix Peña R 2018 · 3.74 FIP	28	SP	3.74	22.3%	8.4%	2.6%	.294	4.58	21.9%	13.5%	191	+0.84	2.79	615	62
Joe Ross R 2021 · 3.95 FIP	28	SP	3.95	23.7%	6.5%	3.7%	.266	3.90	19.6%	10.7%	86	-0.05	3.19	812	62
Jeremy Hefner R 2013 · 4.33 FIP	27	SP	4.33	17.8%	5.9%	3.6%	.277	4.64	16.8%	7.7%	98	+0.31	3.56	322	62
Antonio Guzman R 2016 · 3.72 FIP	28	SP	3.72	21.3%	8.7%	2.4%	.292	3.83	19.5%	7.8%	118	+0.11	3.15	254	62
Josh Lowey R 2015 · 3.35 FIP	30	SP	3.35	21.1%	7.8%	1.9%	.311	2.30	26.7%	20.1%	231	-1.05	2.22	426	62
Taylor Jungmann R 2017 · 3.88 FIP	27	SP-	3.88	18.8%	11.1%	1.8%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	435	62
Jesse Hahn R 2017 · 3.66 FIP	28	SP	3.66	16.6%	9.7%	1.3%	.327	2.19	29.2%	16.9%	17	-1.47	2.19	499	61
Omar Bencomo R 2017 · 4.50 FIP	28	SP-	4.50	18.9%	6.3%	4.0%	.333	4.48	14.9%	10.1%	186	-0.02	3.70	381	61
Kodai Senga R 2023 · 3.40 FIP	30	SP	3.40	29.1%	11.1%	2.5%	.274	4.52	23.4%	10.8%	186	+1.12	3.40	352	61
Kenta Maeda R 2016 · 3.24 FIP	28	SP	3.24	25.0%	6.1%	2.7%	.275	3.48	27.0%	19.9%	413	+0.24	2.87	1,092	61
Todd Redmond R 2013 · 4.14 FIP	28	SP-	4.14	23.5%	6.5%	4.0%	.266	3.57	17.0%	10.1%	170	-0.57	3.21	247	60

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.2	80	24.2%	8.4%	1.43	4.27
Johnny Hutchings ('40-'46, 1 WAR*)	2.4	94	23.6%*	8.7%*	1.58*	4.56*
Joe Price ('80-'90, 7 WAR*)	4.5	82	23.3%*	8.8%*	1.49*	4.15*
Daniel Norris ('23)	2.9	73	21.5%	8.9%	1.39	4.73
Chuck Cary ('85-'93, 3 WAR*)	2.1	68	24.6%*	8.7%*	1.45*	4.41*
Félix Peña ('21)	1.3	65	23.9%	8.5%	1.35	4.66
Matt Andriese ('24)	2.6	74	21.8%	6.7%	1.36	4.65