Gabriel Ponce prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Gabriel Ponce P New Hampshire Fisher Cats

Age 27 RHP 6'2" / 205 lbs AA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 42 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.64

FIP4.64

K%23.8%

BB%12.0%

K-BB%11.8%

ROS IP43

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 42 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	51	231	75	32	5	0%	1.5	24.4%	16.2%	8.2%	2.8%	4.73	4.62	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	0	51	231	75	32	5	0%	1.5	32.5%	13.9%	18.6%	2.2%	4.73	3.31	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	38	0	61	261	67	37	7	0%	1.6	20.5%	14.5%	6.1%	2.3%	3.54	4.45	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	38	0	61	261	67	37	7	0%	1.6	25.7%	14.2%	11.5%	2.7%	3.54	4.21	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	4	61	280	82	40	7	11%	1.6	24.1%	14.9%	9.2%	3.0%	4.28	4.59	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	4	61	280	82	40	7	11%	1.6	24.1%	14.9%	9.2%	3.0%	4.28	4.59	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	4	61	280	82	40	7	11%	1.6	29.3%	14.3%	15.0%	2.5%	4.28	3.87	—
2024	25	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	1	0	1	7	2	1	0	0%	1.3	28.6%	14.3%	14.3%	0.0%	6.75	2.50	—
2024	25	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	1	0	1	7	2	1	0	0%	1.3	28.6%	14.3%	14.3%	0.0%	6.75	2.50	—
2024	25	AA RAW	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	1	0	1	7	2	1	0	0%	1.3	28.6%	14.3%	14.3%	0.0%	6.75	2.35	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	27	MLB	TOR	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	23.8%	12.0%	11.8%	3.0%	4.64	4.64	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	TOR	39	0	41	175	41	21	5	0%	1.1	23.6%	11.9%	11.8%	3.1%	4.66	4.70	-0.1
2027	28	MLB CTX	TOR	15	0	16	68	16	8	2	0%	1.1	23.6%	11.9%	11.8%	3.1%	4.66	4.70	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		15	0	16	66	16	8	2	0%	1.0	23.6%	11.9%	11.8%	3.1%	4.66	4.32	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	206	103	26	0%	1.1	23.6%	11.9%	11.8%	3.1%	4.66	4.32	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		112	4	175	779	179	118	21	4%	1.6	23.0%	15.1%	7.9%	2.7%	4.17	4.54	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		128	5	200	892	205	135	24	4%	1.6	23.0%	15.1%	7.9%	2.7%	4.17	4.54	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Gabriel Ponce (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.64	23.8%	12.0%	3.0%	—	4.70	23.6%	11.8%	41	+0.06	—	—	—
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2011 · 3.85 FIP	27	SU	3.85	24.7%	10.8%	2.7%	.315	3.90	25.2%	16.5%	70	+0.05	3.34	335	90
Jacob Bosiokovic R 2021 · 3.93 FIP	27	SU	3.93	26.4%	14.3%	2.3%	.274	4.80	21.7%	10.2%	69	+0.87	3.84	181	85
Michael Flynn R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	26	SU	4.31	26.5%	11.2%	3.7%	.299	4.36	21.4%	10.8%	92	+0.05	3.89	168	85
Beck Wheeler R 2016 · 4.42 FIP	27	SU	4.42	24.9%	14.5%	2.9%	.360	5.40	15.3%	3.1%	58	+0.98	3.46	173	85
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.18	22.3%	9.0%	119	-0.38	2.12	165	84
Grant Sides R 2016 · 3.83 FIP	27	SU	3.83	22.4%	11.9%	2.0%	.247	3.31	21.7%	11.9%	47	-0.52	3.31	159	84
Grant Balfour R 2004 · 3.79 FIP	26	SU	3.79	24.4%	11.6%	2.3%	.292	4.01	24.8%	8.3%	25	+0.22	2.04	533	84
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	84
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	84
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	84
Jose Veras R 2008 · 3.67 FIP	27	SU	3.67	24.9%	9.1%	2.8%	.281	4.10	23.8%	11.7%	169	+0.43	3.37	422	83
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	83
Ryan Garton R 2017 · 3.67 FIP	27	SU	3.67	25.2%	11.3%	2.3%	.252	4.15	23.5%	10.8%	108	+0.48	3.14	307	83
Cole Sulser R 2017 · 3.52 FIP	27	SU	3.52	22.6%	10.2%	1.9%	.321	2.85	28.2%	18.4%	140	-0.67	2.38	554	83
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.23	26.7%	16.4%	76	-0.81	2.28	121	83
Nolan Clenney R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	27	SU	4.76	23.0%	10.1%	4.2%	.341	4.58	17.2%	7.5%	71	-0.18	3.73	223	83
Chaz Roe R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	26	SU	4.02	25.3%	10.5%	3.1%	.259	2.81	24.6%	16.2%	133	-1.21	1.72	279	83
Logan VanWey R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	23.9%	14.0%	2.7%	.301	3.74	25.9%	15.2%	147	-0.60	2.97	194	83
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	82
Peyton Gray R 2021 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	29.2%	14.1%	3.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	160	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	42	23.7%	11.9%	1.19	4.65
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
José Cisnero ('24)	1.4	46	24.0%	11.3%	1.01	4.16
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. ('16)	1.2	58	24.6%	11.1%	0.93	4.35
J.J. Hoover ('18)	1.4	57	23.8%	11.4%	1.42	4.17
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57