Shane McGuire — OGILVIE

Shane McGuireC Midland RockHounds

Age 27 L/R 5'11" / 195 lbs AA HR -4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 ROS PROJECTION106 act + 144 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†73

AVG/OBP/SLG.213 / .301 / .299

PA144

HR2

K%26

BB%10

BABIP284

ISO87

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 35

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT50

scouting grade only

POWER35

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$2M	+$0.7M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	22	ROK	ACL Athletics	—	61	53	11	2	0	0	4	16	1	1	0	208	276	245	521	38	275	26	7	249	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	ROK	ACL Athletics	—	61	50	14	3	0	0	7	11	1	1	0	280	379	340	719	60	333	18	11	318	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	A	2 teams	—	358	305	74	10	2	2	39	75	10	6	2	243	347	308	656	66	310	21	11	296	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	A	2 teams	—	358	286	77	12	3	2	58	60	10	6	2	269	410	353	763	84	329	17	16	353	129	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AA	Midland RockHounds	—	396	349	67	11	1	4	36	116	6	3	2	192	279	264	542	72	272	29	9	244	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AA	Midland RockHounds	—	396	330	75	13	1	4	55	87	6	3	2	227	348	309	657	82	293	22	14	306	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	AA	Midland RockHounds	—	297	262	47	9	0	4	31	72	2	6	1	179	271	260	531	80	230	24	10	245	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	AA	Midland RockHounds	—	297	248	59	14	0	4	45	52	2	6	1	238	359	343	702	105	285	18	15	324	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	AA	2 teams	—	361	322	70	11	0	5	32	99	5	7	2	217	298	298	596	81	297	27	9	265	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	AA	2 teams	—	361	302	81	14	0	6	51	77	5	7	2	268	382	374	756	106	341	21	14	346	123	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	27	AA	OAK	—	106	93	20	4	0	3	10	28	3	1	2	215	311	355	666	140	274	26	9	285	76	-3	-1	+0	+2	+3	0.1
YTD	27	AA	OAK	—	106	89	21	4	0	3	14	22	3	1	2	236	358	382	741	146	281	21	13	340	118	+2	-1	+0	+2	+3	0.7
ROS	27	AA	OAK	2%	144	127	27	5	0	2	14	38	2	2	1	213	301	299	600	87	285	26	10	281	73	-4	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.2
ROS	27	MLB	OAK	2%	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0						283	33	0	268	64	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
FULL	27	AA	OAK	—	109	96	20	4	0	3	10	29	3	1	2	208	303	344	647	135	266	27	9	285	76	-3	-1	+0	+2	+3	0.2
TOT	27	AA	OAK	—	250	220	47	9	0	5	24	66	5	3	3	214	305	323	628	109	280	26	10	283	75	-7	-1	+0	+4	+7	0.4
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	28	MLB	OAK	33%	333	295	64	12	0	5	31	87	4	4	2	217	300	308	608	92	285	26	9	282	74	-10	+0	-1	+6	+9	0.5
2028	29	MLB	OAK	46%	352	311	68	12	1	6	33	92	5	4	2	219	304	322	625	103	285	26	9	284	75	-10	+0	-1	+6	+10	0.5
2029	30	MLB	OAK	54%	363	321	70	13	1	6	34	95	5	4	2	218	303	321	624	103	284	26	9	283	75	-10	+0	-2	+6	+10	0.4
2030	31	MLB	OAK	58%	347	308	66	12	0	6	32	91	4	3	2	214	297	312	608	97	282	26	9	280	72	-11	-0	-3	+6	+10	0.2
2031	32	MLB	OAK	61%	324	287	60	11	0	5	30	86	4	2	1	209	293	300	592	91	279	27	9	274	68	-12	+0	-4	+6	+9	-0.0
2027	28	MLB	OAK	33%	111	99	21	4	0	2	10	29	1	1	1	212	291	313	604	101	283	26	9	271	65	-4	-0	-0	+2	+3	0.0
2028	29	MLB	OAK	46%	163	145	32	6	0	3	15	42	2	2	1	221	302	324	627	103	283	26	9	272	66	-6	+0	-1	+3	+5	0.1
2029	30	MLB	OAK	54%	195	173	37	7	0	3	18	51	2	2	1	214	295	306	602	92	282	26	9	271	66	-8	+0	-1	+3	+6	0.0
2030	31	MLB	OAK	58%	202	178	38	7	0	3	19	53	3	2	1	213	300	303	603	90	280	26	9	268	64	-8	+0	-2	+4	+6	-0.1
2031	32	MLB	OAK	61%	197	175	36	6	0	3	18	53	2	1	1	206	287	291	579	86	277	27	9	263	60	-9	-0	-2	+4	+6	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	871	773	164	30	0	14	80	229	10	8	5	212	294	305	600	93	280	26	9	269	64	-36	-0	-6	+16	+25	-0.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	577	122	22	0	10	60	171	7	6	4	211	293	302	595	90	280	26	9	269	64	-27	-0	-4	+12	+18	-0.1
Career	—			—	3336	2940	624	108	5	45	316	867	48	42	17	212	299	298	597	86	282	26	9	273	67	-125	+2	-10	+60	+95	2.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	573	122	21	1	9	62	169	9	8	3	213	300	300	600	87	283	26	10	273	67	-24	+0	-2	+12	+18	0.4

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	22	ROK	ACL Athletics	—	61	50	14	3	0	0	7	11	1	1	0	280	379	340	719	60	333	18	11	318	102	+0	+0	—	—	+2	0.2
2022	23	A+	Lansing Lugnuts	—	142	110	26	5	1	1	26	18	4	2	0	236	400	327	727	91	269	13	18	341	119	+3	+0	—	—	+4	0.8
2022	23	A	Stockton Ports	—	216	176	51	7	2	1	32	42	6	4	2	290	416	369	785	80	370	19	15	362	135	+9	+0	—	—	+6	1.5
2023	24	AA	Midland RockHounds	—	396	330	75	13	1	4	55	87	6	3	2	227	348	309	657	82	293	22	14	306	92	-4	-0	—	—	+11	0.8
2024	25	AA	Midland RockHounds	—	297	248	59	14	0	4	45	52	2	6	1	238	359	343	702	105	285	18	15	324	106	+2	+1	—	—	+8	1.2
2025	26	AAA	Las Vegas Aviators	—	120	102	28	6	0	2	15	30	1	5	1	275	370	392	762	118	366	25	12	343	121	+3	+1	—	—	+3	0.7
2025	26	AA	Midland RockHounds	—	241	200	53	8	0	4	36	47	4	2	1	265	388	365	752	100	329	20	15	348	124	+7	+0	—	—	+7	1.4

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#3Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	9	1,844	19	2	219	297	308	+17	+52	5.6	5.8
#3Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	/162	664	7	1	219	297	308	+6.1	+18.7	2.0	pk7: 6
#4Guillermo Heredialast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,530 PA	6	1,530	25	6	231	311	345	+3	+17	3.5	3.5
	/162	664	11	3	231	311	345	+1.2	+7.6	1.5	pk7: 3
#5Gary Bennettlast yr '07 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,703 PA	8	1,703	20	6	239	301	327	+17	+6	2.6	2.6
	/162	664	8	2	239	301	327	+6.7	+2.4	1.0	pk7: 3
#6Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#6Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	3	873	15	9	216	296	315	+16	+12	1.1	1.1
	/162	664	11	7	216	296	315	+11.9	+9.1	0.8	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Shane McGuire (OGILVIE)	27	50	35	45	60	214/305/323	109	280	5	3	26%	10%	75	+0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Greg Garcia 2017 · MLB	27	53→54	39→40	47→50	52	247/329/334	87	313	5	10	21%	10%	91	+1.1	244/341/339	95	309	7	7	21%	11%	98	+1.6	242/351/334	92	309	6	3	21%	13%	98	+0.8
✕Carlos Asuaje 2019 · MLB	27	49→54	40→45	44→45	51	234/304/332	98	285	6	4	20%	8%	80	+0.4	220/291/324	104	268	8	7	20%	8%	72	-0.2	218/290/314	96	264	6	8	19%	8%	66	-0.2
✕Tzu-Wei Lin 2021 · MLB	27	46→48	40→45	46→50	42	220/267/317	97	295	7	10	27%	6%	59	-1.1	205/267/311	106	294	10	16	32%	8%	59	-1.1	141/222/228	88	206	11	18	36%	9%	17	-0.9
✕Mitchell Tolman 2021 · AAA	27	44→50	41→45	47→50	44	209/279/307	99	301	9	10	32%	8%	63	-0.8	232/302/374	142	298	14	8	25%	7%	90	+1.0	234/308/384	151	295	14	7	24%	7%	93	+0.8
✕Nolan Fontana 2018 · MLB	27	41→43	41→40	48→50	49	197/278/296	99	272	8	12	29%	10%	60	-1.0	196/286/316	120	275	11	11	30%	11%	69	-0.4	153/267/269	116	216	9	6	31%	12%	49	-0.5
✕Raffy Lopez 2015 · AAA	27	47→50	41→50	43→40	47	230/289/327	97	291	9	3	24%	7%	72	-0.2	218/273/325	107	293	11	5	28%	7%	65	-0.7	209/265/344	135	274	16	3	29%	6%	64	-0.3
✕Josh Labandeira 2006 · AAA	27	51→52	38→40	45	48	237/307/322	85	302	4	12	22%	8%	79	+0.3	238/295/312	74	294	4	9	19%	6%	71	-0.3	236/292/299	63	293	4	6	19%	6%	63	-0.4
✕Gosuke Katoh 2022 · AAA	27	48→50	42→45	48→50	45	230/292/337	108	315	9	11	29%	8%	76	+0.1	218/275/340	122	294	12	12	28%	7%	70	-0.3	192/251/314	121	255	12	11	29%	6%	50	-1.0
✕Juan Centeno 2017 · MLB	27	50	39→45	46→40	45	237/279/325	88	278	7	5	18%	5%	66	-0.6	240/285/328	88	288	7	4	19%	5%	70	-0.3	238/286/352	114	281	11	2	19%	5%	73	-0.1
✕Dan Gamache 2018 · AAA	27	49→50	41→40	39→45	43	238/284/337	99	311	8	3	26%	6%	72	-0.2	218/282/303	85	307	6	4	29%	7%	63	-0.9	207/279/274	67	299	5	1	30%	8%	51	-0.9
✕Mike Rouse 2007 · MLB	27	47→48	40	45	46	225/290/323	98	289	7	6	24%	7%	72	-0.2	216/267/300	84	276	6	8	23%	6%	56	-1.3	207/250/269	62	264	4	8	22%	4%	36	-1.3
✕Marcus Lemon 2015 · AAA	27	46→53	39→40	42→45	43	220/267/313	93	279	5	6	23%	6%	58	-1.2	219/266/303	84	293	5	5	26%	5%	56	-1.3	220/267/293	73	299	3	3	26%	5%	51	-0.9
✕Tyler LaTorre 2010 · AA	27	49	39→40	41→40	49	232/299/318	86	306	6	6	25%	8%	74	-0.1	214/278/312	98	295	8	4	28%	7%	63	-0.8	237/292/326	90	312	8	3	25%	7%	71	-0.1
✕Josh Horton 2013 · AAA	27	46→54	43→45	44→45	42	226/275/333	107	293	10	6	26%	6%	67	-0.5	237/273/350	113	312	9	7	26%	5%	71	-0.3	261/282/375	113	334	5	4	23%	3%	76	+0.1
✕Mitch Canham 2012 · AAA	27	44→50	39→45	45	46	210/268/293	83	260	6	5	21%	7%	54	-1.4	212/271/297	85	276	5	10	23%	7%	56	-1.3	223/284/317	93	288	4	14	22%	8%	65	-0.3
✕James Skelton 2012 · AA	26	44→54	40	49→50	55	208/300/302	93	276	6	12	25%	11%	72	-0.2	231/320/324	93	303	6	10	23%	11%	85	+0.7	262/375/311	49	338	0	4	19%	13%	105	+0.4
✕Marco Rivera 2010 · AAA	26	48	42→40	40	50	231/296/331	100	278	10	7	20%	8%	76	+0.1	240/287/338	98	296	9	8	21%	6%	74	-0.1	260/294/326	66	319	6	2	20%	4%	72	-0.1
✕Chris Herrmann 2015 · MLB	27	46→48	43→50	48→50	43	226/274/342	117	286	10	6	24%	6%	69	-0.4	218/284/354	136	281	13	10	26%	8%	78	+0.2	217/305/384	166	277	20	8	28%	11%	92	+0.5
✕Bryce Windham 2023 · AA	26	44	40	46→50	54	211/293/304	93	256	8	6	20%	10%	69	-0.4	227/293/319	92	297	5	12	23%	8%	71	-0.3	239/299/327	88	317	3	15	24%	8%	73	-0.1
✕Beau Taylor 2017 · AA	27	44→45	40→45	43→30	44	211/278/301	90	303	8	3	31%	8%	61	-1.0	223/299/329	106	319	9	3	30%	9%	77	+0.1	218/307/332	114	311	11	1	30%	11%	80	+0.2