Nate Mondou
2B El Paso Chihuahuas| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 29 | AAASD | 443 | .267/.373/.404 | 5 | 11 | 71 | — | .215/.293/.317 |
| 2025 | 30 | AAASD | 552 | .308/.403/.422 | 6 | 8 | 88 | — | .262/.329/.343 |
| 2026 | 31 | AAASD | 160 | .254/.340/.442 | 5 | 1 | 63 | — | .194/.256/.319 |
| 2027PROJ10% MLB | 32 | MLBSD | 11 | .236/.304/.336 | 0 | 0 | 85 | 0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ27% MLB | 33 | MLBSD | 26 | .230/.297/.324 | 0 | 0 | 79 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 60 / POW 40
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2017 | 22 | A+ | Stockton Ports | — | 257 | 223 | 62 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 28 | 57 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 278 | 366 | 377 | 743 | 99 | 359 | 22 | 11 | 335 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A | Beloit Snappers | — | 288 | 247 | 73 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 31 | 43 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 296 | 379 | 385 | 763 | 89 | 348 | 15 | 11 | 338 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA | Midland RockHounds | — | 196 | 165 | 42 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 26 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 255 | 353 | 297 | 650 | 42 | 294 | 13 | 10 | 298 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ | Stockton Ports | — | 391 | 344 | 100 | 20 | 5 | 8 | 33 | 58 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 291 | 365 | 448 | 812 | 157 | 326 | 15 | 8 | 356 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA | Midland RockHounds | — | 503 | 427 | 106 | 15 | 3 | 5 | 58 | 94 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 248 | 349 | 333 | 681 | 84 | 301 | 19 | 12 | 310 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA | Las Vegas Aviators | — | 361 | 308 | 87 | 20 | 1 | 8 | 40 | 55 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 282 | 377 | 432 | 809 | 149 | 315 | 15 | 11 | 359 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA | Las Vegas Aviators | — | 449 | 385 | 109 | 30 | 3 | 7 | 46 | 83 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 283 | 378 | 431 | 810 | 148 | 340 | 18 | 10 | 361 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | — | 465 | 389 | 105 | 23 | 1 | 13 | 69 | 89 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 270 | 383 | 434 | 817 | 165 | 316 | 19 | 15 | 364 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 29 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 443 | 371 | 99 | 20 | 8 | 5 | 55 | 89 | 8 | 11 | 4 | 267 | 373 | 404 | 778 | 137 | 331 | 20 | 12 | 345 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 30 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 552 | 467 | 144 | 27 | 4 | 6 | 65 | 79 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 308 | 403 | 422 | 825 | 113 | 358 | 14 | 12 | 367 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 31 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 160 | 138 | 35 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 38 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 254 | 340 | 442 | 782 | 188 | 306 | 24 | 11 | 339 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2017 | 22 | A+ MLE | Stockton Ports | — | 257 | 233 | 54 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 18 | 76 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 232 | 295 | 300 | 596 | 69 | 325 | 30 | 7 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A MLE | Beloit Snappers | — | 288 | 260 | 62 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 18 | 57 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 238 | 293 | 308 | 601 | 69 | 285 | 20 | 6 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA MLE | Midland RockHounds | — | 196 | 170 | 38 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 33 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 224 | 305 | 259 | 564 | 35 | 257 | 17 | 7 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ MLE | Stockton Ports | — | 391 | 354 | 86 | 17 | 4 | 6 | 23 | 80 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 243 | 302 | 364 | 666 | 121 | 282 | 20 | 6 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA MLE | Midland RockHounds | — | 503 | 443 | 90 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 42 | 121 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 203 | 284 | 264 | 548 | 61 | 258 | 24 | 8 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA MLE | Las Vegas Aviators | — | 361 | 322 | 70 | 16 | 1 | 6 | 26 | 66 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 217 | 290 | 329 | 619 | 112 | 247 | 18 | 7 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA MLE | Las Vegas Aviators | — | 449 | 400 | 96 | 23 | 3 | 5 | 31 | 99 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 240 | 315 | 350 | 665 | 110 | 296 | 22 | 7 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AAA MLE | Charlotte Knights | — | 465 | 414 | 92 | 19 | 1 | 8 | 44 | 109 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 222 | 300 | 331 | 631 | 109 | 274 | 23 | 9 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 29 | AAA MLE | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 443 | 391 | 84 | 15 | 8 | 3 | 35 | 111 | 8 | 11 | 4 | 215 | 293 | 317 | 610 | 102 | 277 | 25 | 8 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 30 | AAA MLE | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 552 | 492 | 129 | 22 | 3 | 4 | 40 | 98 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 262 | 329 | 343 | 673 | 81 | 308 | 18 | 7 | 298 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 31 | AAA MLE | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 160 | 144 | 28 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 46 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 194 | 256 | 319 | 576 | 125 | 252 | 29 | 7 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 545 | 493 | 116 | 19 | 6 | 1 | 36 | 132 | 5 | 16 | 8 | 235 | 294 | 304 | 598 | 69 | 312 | 24 | 7 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 545 | 470 | 135 | 24 | 7 | 2 | 59 | 100 | 5 | 16 | 8 | 287 | 373 | 381 | 754 | 94 | 353 | 18 | 11 | 337 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 587 | 524 | 124 | 23 | 4 | 6 | 37 | 112 | 13 | 10 | 6 | 237 | 303 | 330 | 633 | 94 | 285 | 19 | 6 | 274 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 587 | 509 | 142 | 27 | 5 | 8 | 52 | 84 | 13 | 10 | 6 | 279 | 361 | 399 | 759 | 120 | 315 | 14 | 9 | 337 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA MLE | Midland RockHounds | — | 503 | 443 | 90 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 42 | 121 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 203 | 284 | 264 | 548 | 61 | 265 | 24 | 8 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA RAW | Midland RockHounds | — | 503 | 427 | 106 | 15 | 3 | 5 | 58 | 94 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 248 | 349 | 333 | 681 | 84 | 301 | 19 | 12 | 310 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA MLE | Las Vegas Aviators | — | 361 | 322 | 70 | 16 | 1 | 6 | 26 | 66 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 217 | 290 | 329 | 619 | 112 | 250 | 18 | 7 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA RAW | Las Vegas Aviators | — | 361 | 308 | 87 | 20 | 1 | 8 | 40 | 55 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 282 | 377 | 432 | 809 | 149 | 315 | 15 | 11 | 359 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA MLE | Las Vegas Aviators | — | 449 | 400 | 96 | 23 | 3 | 5 | 31 | 99 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 240 | 315 | 350 | 665 | 110 | 302 | 22 | 7 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA RAW | Las Vegas Aviators | — | 449 | 385 | 109 | 30 | 3 | 7 | 46 | 83 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 283 | 378 | 431 | 810 | 148 | 340 | 18 | 10 | 361 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AAA MLE | Charlotte Knights | — | 465 | 414 | 92 | 19 | 1 | 8 | 44 | 109 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 222 | 300 | 331 | 631 | 109 | 279 | 23 | 9 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AAA RAW | Charlotte Knights | — | 465 | 389 | 105 | 23 | 1 | 13 | 69 | 89 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 270 | 383 | 434 | 817 | 165 | 316 | 19 | 15 | 364 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 29 | AAA MLE | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 443 | 391 | 84 | 15 | 8 | 3 | 35 | 111 | 8 | 11 | 4 | 215 | 293 | 317 | 610 | 102 | 285 | 25 | 8 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 29 | AAA RAW | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 443 | 371 | 99 | 20 | 8 | 5 | 55 | 89 | 8 | 11 | 4 | 267 | 373 | 404 | 778 | 137 | 331 | 20 | 12 | 345 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 30 | AAA MLE | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 552 | 492 | 129 | 22 | 3 | 4 | 40 | 98 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 262 | 329 | 343 | 673 | 81 | 317 | 18 | 7 | 298 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 30 | AAA RAW | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 552 | 467 | 144 | 27 | 4 | 6 | 65 | 79 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 308 | 403 | 422 | 825 | 113 | 358 | 14 | 12 | 367 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 31 | AAA MLE | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 160 | 144 | 28 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 46 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 194 | 256 | 319 | 576 | 125 | 255 | 29 | 7 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 31 | AAA RAW | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 160 | 138 | 35 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 38 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 254 | 340 | 442 | 782 | 188 | 306 | 24 | 11 | 339 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 545 | 499 | 116 | 19 | 6 | 1 | 36 | 132 | 5 | 16 | 8 | 232 | 294 | 301 | 595 | 68 | 304 | 24 | 7 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 587 | 532 | 124 | 23 | 4 | 6 | 37 | 112 | 13 | 10 | 6 | 233 | 303 | 325 | 628 | 92 | 274 | 19 | 6 | 274 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA MLE | Midland RockHounds | — | 503 | 448 | 90 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 42 | 121 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 201 | 284 | 261 | 545 | 60 | 258 | 24 | 8 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA MLE | Las Vegas Aviators | — | 361 | 325 | 70 | 16 | 1 | 6 | 26 | 66 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 215 | 290 | 326 | 616 | 111 | 247 | 18 | 7 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA MLE | Las Vegas Aviators | — | 449 | 402 | 96 | 23 | 3 | 5 | 31 | 99 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 239 | 315 | 348 | 664 | 109 | 296 | 22 | 7 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AAA MLE | Charlotte Knights | — | 465 | 416 | 92 | 19 | 1 | 8 | 44 | 109 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 221 | 300 | 329 | 629 | 108 | 274 | 23 | 9 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 29 | AAA MLE | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 443 | 397 | 84 | 15 | 8 | 3 | 35 | 111 | 8 | 11 | 4 | 212 | 293 | 312 | 605 | 101 | 277 | 25 | 8 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 30 | AAA MLE | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 552 | 498 | 129 | 22 | 3 | 4 | 40 | 98 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 259 | 329 | 339 | 668 | 80 | 308 | 18 | 7 | 298 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 31 | AAA MLE | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 160 | 147 | 28 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 46 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 190 | 256 | 313 | 569 | 122 | 252 | 29 | 7 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 29 | AAA MLE | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 443 | 397 | 84 | 15 | 8 | 3 | 35 | 111 | 8 | 11 | 4 | 212 | 293 | 312 | 605 | 101 | 277 | 25 | 8 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 30 | AAA MLE | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 552 | 498 | 129 | 22 | 3 | 4 | 40 | 98 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 259 | 329 | 339 | 668 | 80 | 308 | 18 | 7 | 298 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 31 | AAA MLE | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 160 | 147 | 28 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 46 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 190 | 256 | 313 | 569 | 122 | 252 | 29 | 7 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB MLE | SD | 10% | 210 | 189 | 45 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 46 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 240 | 307 | 342 | 649 | 102 | 301 | 22 | 8 | 293 | 85 | -4 | +0 | -0 | +1 | +5 | 0.1 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB CTX | SD | 10% | 11 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 236 | 304 | 336 | 639 | 100 | 296 | 18 | 9 | 289 | 85 | -0 | +0 | -0 | +0 | +0 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 33 | MLB MLE | SD | 27% | 95 | 87 | 21 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 21 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 234 | 300 | 331 | 631 | 96 | 296 | 22 | 7 | 285 | 79 | -2 | +0 | -4 | +0 | +2 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB CTX | SD | 27% | 26 | 24 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 230 | 297 | 324 | 621 | 94 | 291 | 23 | 8 | 282 | 79 | -1 | +0 | -1 | +0 | +1 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 26 | 24 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 208 | 269 | 250 | 519 | 42 | 278 | 23 | 8 | 282 | 73 | -1 | +0 | -1 | +0 | +1 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 600 | 125 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 50 | 150 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 208 | 269 | 250 | 519 | 42 | 278 | 23 | 8 | 282 | 73 | -16 | +0 | -29 | +2 | +14 | -2.9 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 4270 | 3810 | 873 | 161 | 32 | 42 | 317 | 939 | 68 | 64 | 41 | 229 | 300 | 321 | 621 | 92 | 288 | 22 | 7 | 277 | 73 | -4 | +0 | -4 | +1 | +4 | -0.3 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 580 | 133 | 25 | 5 | 6 | 48 | 143 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 229 | 299 | 321 | 620 | 91 | 289 | 22 | 7 | 277 | 73 | -14 | +1 | -13 | +2 | +14 | -1.0 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 160 PAwOBA .336 → .262 (−74)K% 23.8% → 28.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.75% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 28.50% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.62% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.962 | 7.05% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.62% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.962 | 0.57% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×0.958 | ×0.962 | 17.99% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.958 | ×0.962 | 5.35% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.958 | ×0.962 | 1.79% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.962 | 3.37% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.958.
Result: wOBA .336 → .262; ISO .188 → .141; BABIP .306 → .252. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 552 PAwOBA .359 → .298 (−62)K% 14.3% → 17.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.31% | ÷0.973 | ×1.200 | — | — | 17.65% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.41% | ÷1.054 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.972 | 7.27% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.63% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.972 | 1.49% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.58% | ÷0.999 | ×0.930 | ×0.986 | ×0.972 | 24.60% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.96% | ÷1.042 | ×0.830 | ×0.986 | ×0.972 | 5.31% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.03% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×0.986 | ×0.972 | 0.83% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.55% | ÷0.981 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.972 | 1.07% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 100, 2B 108, 3B 130, K 95, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.986.
Result: wOBA .359 → .298; ISO .113 → .089; BABIP .358 → .308. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 443 PAwOBA .341 → .273 (−68)K% 20.1% → 25.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.09% | ÷0.961 | ×1.200 | — | — | 25.09% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.96% | ÷1.026 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.982 | 7.90% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.81% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.982 | 1.67% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.40% | ÷1.025 | ×0.930 | ×0.967 | ×0.982 | 20.17% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.09% | ÷1.053 | ×0.830 | ×0.967 | ×0.982 | 5.31% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.84% | ÷0.996 | ×0.970 | ×0.967 | ×0.982 | 2.62% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.77% | ÷1.078 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.982 | 1.13% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 105, 2B 111, 3B 99, K 92, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.967.
Result: wOBA .341 → .273; ISO .137 → .109; BABIP .331 → .277. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAACharlotte Knights · 465 PAwOBA .358 → .280 (−78)K% 19.1% → 23.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.14% | ÷0.978 | ×1.200 | — | — | 23.50% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.84% | ÷1.078 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 9.42% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.43% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 0.40% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.67% | ÷0.967 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×0.992 | 20.55% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.67% | ÷0.971 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×0.992 | 6.18% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.33% | ÷0.996 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×0.992 | 0.31% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.33% | ÷1.152 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 2.61% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 130, 1B 93, 2B 94, 3B 99, K 96, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .358 → .280; ISO .165 → .117; BABIP .316 → .274. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 449 PAwOBA .355 → .294 (−61)K% 18.5% → 22.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.49% | ÷1.009 | ×1.200 | — | — | 21.98% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.02% | ÷0.992 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 6.99% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.90% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 2.73% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.85% | ÷0.995 | ×0.930 | ×0.984 | ×1.003 | 21.06% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.93% | ÷1.088 | ×0.830 | ×0.984 | ×1.003 | 7.47% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.99% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.984 | ×1.003 | 1.06% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.32% | ÷1.075 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 1.51% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 115, 1B 99, 2B 118, 3B 80, K 102, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.984.
Result: wOBA .355 → .294; ISO .148 → .113; BABIP .340 → .296. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 361 PAwOBA .355 → .278 (−77)K% 15.2% → 18.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.24% | ÷0.994 | ×1.200 | — | — | 18.39% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.08% | ÷1.083 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 7.19% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.94% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 1.86% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.92% | ÷1.156 | ×0.930 | ×0.958 | ×1.018 | 17.99% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.91% | ÷1.018 | ×0.830 | ×0.958 | ×1.018 | 6.29% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.40% | ÷0.956 | ×0.920 | ×0.958 | ×1.018 | 0.37% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.16% | ÷0.941 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 2.39% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 131, 2B 104, 3B 91, K 99, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.958.
Result: wOBA .355 → .278; ISO .149 → .121; BABIP .315 → .247. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAMidland RockHounds · 503 PAwOBA .307 → .250 (−56)K% 18.7% → 24.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.69% | ÷0.946 | ×1.220 | — | — | 24.09% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.53% | ÷0.975 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 8.38% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.59% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.012 | 1.40% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.92% | ÷0.999 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 22.06% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.50% | ÷1.132 | ×0.840 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 3.21% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.90% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 0.71% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.50% | ÷0.954 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 1.27% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 100, 2B 126, 3B 130, K 89, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .307 → .250; ISO .084 → .066; BABIP .301 → .258. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 A+Stockton Ports · 391 PAwOBA .350 → .283 (−67)K% 14.8% → 20.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.83% | ÷0.972 | ×1.340 | — | — | 20.44% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.44% | ÷1.035 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 5.78% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.79% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.998 | 1.41% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.43% | ÷0.978 | ×0.910 | ×0.957 | ×0.998 | 20.81% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.99% | ÷0.926 | ×0.820 | ×0.957 | ×0.998 | 5.91% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.75% | ÷1.006 | ×0.760 | ×0.957 | ×0.998 | 1.26% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.80% | ÷1.244 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.998 | 2.06% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 149, 1B 96, 2B 85, 3B 101, K 94, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.957.
Result: wOBA .350 → .283; ISO .157 → .120; BABIP .326 → .282. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).