Shane Drohan

P Milwaukee Brewers

Age 28 LHP 6'2" / 202 lbs MLB Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 2.0 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP40-MANFG #473Pre-ArbFA 2032

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	MIX3 levels	12	2	16	7.71	4.02	27.4%	19.0%	—	K 19.3% · BB 18.6% · FIP 3.83
2025	26	MIX2 levels	15	14	54	3.00	2.62	34.5%	9.4%	—	K 30.3% · BB 7.6% · FIP 2.79
2026	27	MIX2 levels	36	21	138	4.10	3.66	24.0%	8.6%	2.1	K 23.6% · BB 8.5% · FIP 3.63
2027PROJ	28	MLBMIL	20	20	123	4.09	4.14	24.3%	9.0%	1.1
2028PROJ95% MLB	29	MLBMIL	19	19	112	4.30	4.38	23.7%	9.2%	0.8
2029PROJ95% MLB	30	MLBMIL	18	18	105	4.49	4.60	23.0%	9.5%	0.5

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.1 · Next 3 projected WAR 2.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2031Service1.000First FA2032

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Arb-1$2M2030Arb-2$3M2031Arb-3$3M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

Whiff%63

xwOBA vs61

K%58

FB Velo55

CompsBen Shields (age 25) · Danny Wirchansky (age 27) · Dylan Dodd (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9199vR 107

ERA4.09

FIP4.14

K%24.3%

BB%9.0%

K-BB%15.3%

Proj IP123

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 123 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$11M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5050

CTRL5045

CMD4545

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5594.9

Whiff%

p6327.3%

p5823.7%

xwOBA vs

p610.301

CT (12%)

SI (22%)

CU (13%)

SL (21%)

CH (5%)

FB-0.6 (49%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 1.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.1	$9M	+$8M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2029	Arb-1	$2M	+0.5	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-2	$3M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-3	$3M	—	—	—
Totals		$2M		$14M	+$10M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	23	23	89	383	86	45	3	100%	3.9	16.6%	13.9%	2.8%	1.2%	3.96	4.10	—
2021	22	A RAW	Salem Red Sox	23	23	89	383	86	45	3	100%	3.9	22.5%	11.7%	10.7%	0.8%	3.96	3.12	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	25	130	551	157	51	20	93%	4.8	22.1%	10.5%	11.5%	4.5%	3.89	5.04	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	25	130	551	157	51	20	93%	4.8	28.5%	9.3%	19.2%	3.6%	3.89	3.86	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	25	123	552	129	72	20	93%	4.6	19.8%	12.1%	7.7%	4.0%	5.05	5.13	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	25	123	552	129	72	20	93%	4.6	23.4%	13.0%	10.3%	3.6%	5.05	4.87	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	12	2	16	84	23	16	1	17%	1.4	19.3%	18.6%	0.7%	0.0%	7.71	3.83	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	12	2	16	84	23	16	1	17%	1.4	19.3%	18.6%	0.7%	0.0%	7.71	3.83	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	12	2	16	84	23	16	1	17%	1.4	27.4%	19.0%	8.3%	1.2%	7.71	4.02	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	14	54	223	77	21	5	93%	3.6	30.3%	7.6%	22.7%	2.4%	3.00	2.79	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	14	54	223	77	21	5	93%	3.6	30.3%	7.6%	22.7%	2.4%	3.00	2.79	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	14	54	223	77	21	5	93%	3.6	34.5%	9.4%	25.1%	2.2%	3.00	2.62	—
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	21	138	591	142	51	16	58%	3.8	23.6%	8.5%	15.1%	2.6%	4.10	3.63	+2.1
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	21	138	591	142	51	16	58%	3.8	23.6%	8.5%	15.1%	2.6%	4.10	3.63	+2.1
2026	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	21	138	591	142	51	16	58%	3.8	24.0%	8.6%	15.4%	2.7%	4.10	3.66	+2.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			33	19	125	528	125	44	14	58%	3.8	23.7%	8.3%	15.3%	2.7%	4.19	3.61	+1.9
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	MIL	20	20	123	519	126	47	15	100%	6.2	24.3%	9.0%	15.3%	2.9%	4.09	4.14	+1.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	MIL	20	20	118	497	118	46	15	100%	5.9	23.7%	9.2%	14.5%	3.0%	4.22	4.30	+0.8
2029	30	MLB MLE	MIL	18	18	111	467	107	44	15	100%	6.2	23.0%	9.5%	13.5%	3.2%	4.40	4.51	+0.5
2030	31	MLB MLE	MIL	17	17	103	436	97	43	15	100%	6.1	22.2%	9.8%	12.4%	3.5%	4.61	4.74	+0.2
2031	32	MLB MLE	MIL	16	16	96	403	86	41	15	100%	6.0	21.4%	10.2%	11.2%	3.7%	4.84	5.00	-0.1
2028	29	MLB CTX	MIL	19	19	112	473	112	44	15	100%	5.9	23.7%	9.2%	14.5%	3.2%	4.30	4.38	+0.8
2029	30	MLB CTX	MIL	18	18	105	443	102	42	15	100%	5.8	23.0%	9.5%	13.5%	3.4%	4.49	4.60	+0.5
2030	31	MLB CTX	MIL	16	16	98	414	92	41	15	100%	6.1	22.2%	9.8%	12.4%	3.6%	4.70	4.83	+0.2
2031	32	MLB CTX	MIL	15	15	91	384	82	39	15	100%	6.1	21.4%	10.2%	11.2%	3.9%	4.94	5.10	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		101	87	531	2242	513	210	74	86%	5.3	22.9%	9.4%	13.5%	3.3%	4.50	4.16	+4.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		38	33	200	845	193	79	28	86%	5.3	22.9%	9.4%	13.5%	3.3%	4.50	4.16	+1.7
Career	—	MLE		140	110	550	2384	518	261	72	79%	3.9	21.7%	10.9%	10.8%	3.0%	4.24	4.31	+3.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		51	40	200	867	188	95	26	79%	3.9	21.7%	10.9%	10.8%	3.0%	4.24	4.31	+1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Shane Drohan (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.14	24.3%	9.0%	2.9%	—	4.51	23.0%	13.5%	332	+0.37	—	—	—
Ben Shields L 2024 · 3.23 FIP	25	SP-	3.23	25.3%	8.2%	2.2%	.273	3.02	23.5%	13.3%	43	-0.21	3.02	147	77
Danny Wirchansky L 2024 · 4.47 FIP	27	SP-	4.47	16.2%	7.4%	3.3%	.246	5.88	13.0%	0.2%	68	+1.41	4.47	179	69
Dylan Dodd L 2024 · 4.71 FIP	26	SP-	4.71	17.5%	6.0%	4.2%	.338	3.97	26.5%	21.7%	123	-0.74	3.31	475	67
Hogan Harris L 2024 · 4.46 FIP	27	SP-	4.46	20.3%	11.8%	2.9%	.312	3.42	26.7%	15.1%	150	-1.04	3.09	501	67
Phil Pfeifer L 2019 · 3.61 FIP	27	SP-	3.61	21.9%	8.5%	2.4%	.298	5.65	19.5%	4.7%	35	+2.04	3.61	307	67
T.J. Sikkema L 2024 · 3.57 FIP	26	SP-	3.57	18.5%	6.0%	2.3%	.282	4.10	16.1%	7.2%	87	+0.53	3.57	300	66
Matt Tracy L 2017 · 4.82 FIP	28	SP-	4.82	16.1%	9.4%	3.5%	.325	3.24	13.9%	3.5%	49	-1.58	3.24	298	64
Chipper Smith L 2015 · 3.81 FIP	25	SP-	3.81	15.6%	9.5%	1.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	109	64
James Gillheeney L 2015 · 3.79 FIP	27	SP-	3.79	14.4%	8.0%	1.6%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	129	63
Jared Koenig L 2022 · 4.06 FIP	28	SP-	4.06	18.1%	7.4%	2.8%	.308	3.29	23.6%	15.8%	187	-0.77	2.79	475	63
John Anderson L 2016 · 4.23 FIP	27	SP-	4.23	14.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.367	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	235	62
Eric Wooten L 2015 · 4.02 FIP	25	SP-	4.02	14.6%	7.5%	2.2%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	116	61
John Lamb L 2018 · 4.64 FIP	28	SP	4.64	22.5%	7.2%	4.6%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	3.38	390	61
Chris Narveson L 2010 · 4.00 FIP	28	SP-	4.00	18.9%	7.7%	2.8%	.296	4.01	18.0%	8.8%	162	+0.01	4.00	625	60
Taylor Varnell L 2021 · 4.48 FIP	26	SP	4.48	20.1%	10.3%	3.2%	.278	—	—	—	—	—	2.89	248	60
Ryan Bollinger L 2018 · 3.56 FIP	27	SP	3.56	17.1%	7.5%	1.7%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	112	60
Andy Otero L 2021 · 3.89 FIP	29	SP-	3.89	24.7%	6.2%	3.8%	.298	4.36	14.5%	5.6%	68	+0.47	2.86	200	60
Zach Logue L 2024 · 3.67 FIP	28	SP-	3.67	19.7%	6.4%	2.6%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	700	59
Bruce Zimmermann L 2023 · 3.09 FIP	28	SP-	3.09	21.3%	6.9%	1.7%	.367	4.06	18.6%	13.0%	293	+0.97	2.91	934	59
Aaron Rozek L 2024 · 3.68 FIP	28	SP-	3.68	16.2%	5.8%	2.2%	.304	4.68	16.9%	9.0%	234	+1.00	3.68	579	59

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.4	113	23.1%	9.3%	1.21	4.37
John Patterson ('07)	2.3	76	21.2%	9.1%	1.19	4.32
Frankie Montas ('25)	3.9	98	23.6%	8.2%	1.20	4.20
Jack Bentley ('13-'27, 5 WAR*)	3.6	143	21.1%*	9.8%*	1.35*	4.67*
Nate Karns ('19)	1.6	105	24.0%	9.3%	1.34	4.30
Red Embree ('41-'49, 5 WAR*)	3.5	118	18.9%*	9.1%*	1.32*	4.29*
Duster Mails ('15-'26, 4 WAR*)	2.6	129	26.5%*	10.4%*	1.24*	4.23*