Michael Mercado — OGILVIE

Michael Mercado P Lehigh Valley IronPigs

Age 27 RHP 6'4" / 205 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION58 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132124vR 116

ERA5.00

FIP5.20

K%20.7%

BB%12.9%

K-BB%7.9%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 64 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CMD3030

K†5050

CT (25%)

CU (15%)

CH-0.6 (5%)

FB-2.1 (55%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	18	ROK MLE	GCL Rays	8	8	21	86	14	4	1	100%	2.7	11.1%	5.8%	5.3%	1.6%	1.69	3.80	—
2017	18	ROK RAW	GCL Rays	8	8	21	86	14	4	1	100%	2.7	16.3%	4.7%	11.6%	1.2%	1.69	2.96	—
2021	22	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	22	18	71	302	81	23	16	82%	3.2	20.7%	8.8%	11.9%	6.8%	5.35	6.18	—
2021	22	A+ RAW	Bowling Green Hot Rods	22	18	71	302	81	23	16	82%	3.2	26.8%	7.6%	19.2%	5.3%	5.35	4.73	—
2022	23	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	24	20	103	445	115	36	17	83%	4.3	20.9%	8.9%	12.0%	4.7%	4.91	5.05	—
2022	23	AA RAW	Montgomery Biscuits	24	20	103	445	115	36	17	83%	4.3	25.8%	8.1%	17.8%	3.8%	4.91	4.06	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	52	2	62	268	95	35	12	4%	1.2	29.1%	12.8%	16.3%	4.5%	4.79	4.72	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	52	2	62	268	95	35	12	4%	1.2	29.1%	12.8%	16.3%	4.5%	4.79	4.72	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	52	2	62	268	95	35	12	4%	1.2	35.4%	13.1%	22.4%	4.5%	4.79	4.25	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	12	83	351	74	44	13	32%	2.2	18.0%	11.5%	6.4%	3.7%	3.48	5.05	-0.5
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	12	83	351	74	44	13	32%	2.2	18.0%	11.5%	6.4%	3.7%	3.48	5.05	-0.5
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	12	83	351	74	44	13	32%	2.2	21.1%	12.5%	8.5%	3.7%	3.48	4.95	-0.4
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	52	245	57	31	7	0%	1.2	19.6%	10.8%	8.8%	3.1%	5.19	4.52	+0.0
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	52	245	57	31	7	0%	1.2	19.6%	10.8%	8.8%	3.1%	5.19	4.52	+0.0
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	0	52	245	57	31	7	0%	1.2	23.3%	12.7%	10.6%	2.9%	5.19	4.45	+0.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			8	2	16	84	14	13	10	25%	2.0	16.7%	15.5%	1.2%	11.9%	11.81	11.91	-1.3
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	39	2	58	267	56	31	6	5%	1.5	17.7%	10.5%	7.2%	2.8%	4.21	4.46	—
YTD	27	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	39	2	58	267	56	31	6	5%	1.5	17.7%	10.5%	7.2%	2.8%	4.21	4.46	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	A RAW	PHI	2	0	2	9	4	1	0	0%	1.1	44.4%	11.1%	33.3%	0.0%	0.00	0.75	—
2026	27	A+ RAW	PHI	3	2	5	19	1	2	0	67%	1.7	5.3%	10.5%	-5.3%	0.0%	1.80	3.99	—
2026	27	AAA RAW	PHI	34	0	50	239	51	28	6	0%	1.5	21.3%	11.7%	9.6%	2.5%	4.65	4.16	—
ROS	27	MLB MLE	PHI	6	0	6	25	5	3	1	0%	1.0	20.7%	12.9%	7.9%	3.4%	5.00	5.20	-0.0
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	PHI	—	—	64	292	61	34	7	—	—	21.0%	11.7%	9.2%	2.3%	4.29	4.52	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	PHI	117	0	123	518	107	65	18	0%	1.0	20.7%	12.5%	8.2%	3.4%	5.08	5.19	-0.9
2028	29	MLB MLE	PHI	112	0	117	495	100	61	18	0%	1.0	20.2%	12.4%	7.9%	3.5%	5.17	5.28	-0.9
2029	30	MLB MLE	PHI	105	0	110	465	91	58	17	0%	1.0	19.6%	12.4%	7.2%	3.7%	5.31	5.43	-1.0
2027	28	MLB CTX	PHI	50	0	52	220	46	27	8	0%	1.0	20.7%	12.5%	8.2%	3.4%	5.08	5.19	-0.4
2028	29	MLB CTX	PHI	66	0	69	291	59	36	10	0%	1.0	20.2%	12.4%	7.9%	3.5%	5.17	5.28	-0.5
2029	30	MLB CTX	PHI	74	0	78	329	65	41	12	0%	1.1	19.6%	12.4%	7.2%	3.7%	5.31	5.43	-0.7
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		198	2	215	926	184	118	40	1%	1.1	19.8%	12.7%	7.1%	4.3%	5.69	5.41	-2.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		184	2	200	860	171	110	37	1%	1.1	19.8%	12.7%	7.1%	4.3%	5.69	5.41	-2.0
Career	—	MLE		227	62	449	1964	401	200	83	27%	2.0	20.4%	10.2%	10.2%	4.2%	4.49	4.98	-4.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		101	28	200	875	179	89	37	27%	2.0	20.4%	10.2%	10.2%	4.2%	4.49	4.98	-2.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Michael Mercado (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.20	20.7%	12.9%	3.4%	—	5.30	20.2%	7.8%	350	+0.10	—	—	—
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	74
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.86	18.0%	10.2%	272	-1.00	3.52	390	73
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	73
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.37	14.7%	3.6%	156	+0.91	4.46	215	73
David Holman R 2017 · 5.53 FIP	27	SU	5.53	15.6%	12.7%	3.9%	.324	5.45	9.6%	0.5%	107	-0.08	5.28	129	73
Fernando Cruz R 2015 · 5.29 FIP	25	SU	5.29	15.6%	12.2%	3.6%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	2.50	371	72
Arcenio Leon R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	17.9%	12.5%	2.9%	.450	3.37	18.0%	9.1%	85	-1.36	3.00	115	72
Lucas Erceg R 2022 · 4.48 FIP	27	SU	4.48	20.8%	14.0%	2.5%	.339	2.96	24.5%	15.8%	193	-1.52	2.10	346	72
Derek Eitel R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	27	SU	4.35	18.1%	13.9%	1.8%	.338	4.26	19.7%	5.0%	113	-0.09	3.96	138	72
Logan Taylor R 2018 · 4.79 FIP	26	SU	4.79	17.2%	12.1%	2.9%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	300	72
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	71
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	71
José Cisnero R 2016 · 4.50 FIP	27	SU	4.50	26.1%	11.7%	3.9%	.367	3.90	24.5%	13.3%	75	-0.60	2.26	279	71
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	71
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	71
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	71
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.07	26.7%	16.7%	73	-0.97	2.28	118	71
Ryan Conroy R 2022 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	106	70
Michael Ynoa R 2019 · 4.68 FIP	27	SU	4.68	23.1%	13.8%	3.3%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	3.30	142	70
Fernery Ozuna R 2023 · 5.71 FIP	27	SU	5.71	18.4%	11.6%	4.9%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.84	157	70

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.4	118	20.4%	12.5%	1.36	5.14
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Josiah Gray ('23)	1.9	126	22.6%	10.8%	1.88	4.64
Brandon Finnegan ('18)	1.2	80	19.7%	11.6%	1.57	4.19
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Ian Anderson ('22)	1.4	91	22.5%	10.4%	0.96	3.97