Michael Mercado
P
Lehigh Valley IronPigs
Age 27
RHP
6'4" / 205 lbs
AAA
2026 ROS PROJECTION38 act + 123 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 139130vR 121
ERA5.09
FIP5.33
K%21.7%
BB%14.3%
K-BB%7.5%
ROS IP123
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 161 IP
Grades · Arsenal · Contract
CT (25%)
CU (15%)
CH-0.6 (5%)
FB-2.1 (55%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 18 | ROK | GCL Rays | 8 | 8 | 21 | 86 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 2.7 | 11.1% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 1.6% | 1.69 | 3.80 | — |
| 2017 | 18 | ROK | GCL Rays | 8 | 8 | 21 | 86 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 2.7 | 16.3% | 4.7% | 11.6% | 1.2% | 1.69 | 2.96 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | 22 | 18 | 71 | 302 | 81 | 23 | 16 | 82% | 3.2 | 20.7% | 8.8% | 11.9% | 6.9% | 5.35 | 6.27 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | 22 | 18 | 71 | 302 | 81 | 23 | 16 | 82% | 3.2 | 26.8% | 7.6% | 19.2% | 5.3% | 5.35 | 4.73 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | 24 | 20 | 103 | 445 | 115 | 36 | 17 | 83% | 4.3 | 20.9% | 8.9% | 12.0% | 4.9% | 4.91 | 5.13 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | 24 | 20 | 103 | 445 | 115 | 36 | 17 | 83% | 4.3 | 25.8% | 8.1% | 17.8% | 3.8% | 4.91 | 4.06 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 52 | 2 | 62 | 268 | 95 | 35 | 12 | 4% | 1.2 | 30.2% | 14.0% | 16.2% | 4.0% | 4.79 | 4.54 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 52 | 2 | 62 | 268 | 95 | 35 | 12 | 4% | 1.2 | 35.4% | 13.1% | 22.4% | 4.5% | 4.79 | 4.25 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 12 | 83 | 351 | 74 | 44 | 13 | 32% | 2.2 | 18.9% | 13.0% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 3.48 | 5.22 | -0.2 |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 12 | 83 | 351 | 74 | 44 | 13 | 32% | 2.2 | 21.1% | 12.5% | 8.5% | 3.7% | 3.48 | 4.95 | +0.1 |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 0 | 52 | 245 | 57 | 31 | 7 | 0% | 1.2 | 20.7% | 12.6% | 8.1% | 3.3% | 5.19 | 4.75 | -0.1 |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 0 | 52 | 245 | 57 | 31 | 7 | 0% | 1.2 | 23.3% | 12.7% | 10.6% | 2.9% | 5.19 | 4.45 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | AAA | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | 26 | 2 | 38 | 173 | 41 | 23 | 4 | 8% | 1.5 | 21.8% | 14.5% | 7.4% | 3.0% | 4.23 | 4.76 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | PHI | 117 | 0 | 123 | 518 | 113 | 74 | 18 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.7% | 14.3% | 7.5% | 3.4% | 5.09 | 5.33 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | PHI | 11 | 0 | 12 | 51 | 11 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.7% | 14.3% | 7.5% | 3.4% | 5.09 | 5.33 | -0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | PHI | — | — | 161 | 691 | 154 | 97 | 22 | — | — | 22.2% | 14.0% | 8.2% | 3.1% | 4.88 | 5.19 | +0.4 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | PHI | — | — | 12 | 52 | 11 | 7 | 2 | — | — | 21.7% | 14.3% | 7.5% | 3.4% | 5.09 | 4.95 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | PHI | 117 | 0 | 123 | 518 | 112 | 71 | 18 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.6% | 13.8% | 7.9% | 3.5% | 5.17 | 5.30 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | PHI | 112 | 0 | 117 | 495 | 104 | 67 | 18 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.1% | 13.5% | 7.5% | 3.6% | 5.27 | 5.38 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | PHI | 105 | 0 | 110 | 465 | 95 | 63 | 17 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.4% | 13.5% | 6.9% | 3.8% | 5.41 | 5.53 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | PHI | 50 | 0 | 52 | 220 | 47 | 30 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.6% | 13.8% | 7.9% | 3.5% | 5.17 | 5.30 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | PHI | 66 | 0 | 69 | 291 | 61 | 39 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.1% | 13.5% | 7.5% | 3.6% | 5.27 | 5.38 | -0.5 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | PHI | 74 | 0 | 78 | 329 | 67 | 45 | 12 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.4% | 13.5% | 6.9% | 3.8% | 5.41 | 5.53 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 209 | 2 | 227 | 976 | 201 | 135 | 42 | 1% | 1.1 | 20.6% | 13.8% | 6.8% | 4.3% | 5.75 | 5.48 | -0.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 184 | 2 | 200 | 859 | 177 | 119 | 37 | 1% | 1.1 | 20.6% | 13.8% | 6.8% | 4.3% | 5.75 | 5.48 | -0.2 | ||
| Career | — | 214 | 62 | 430 | 1870 | 401 | 210 | 81 | 29% | 2.0 | 21.4% | 11.2% | 10.2% | 4.3% | 4.50 | 5.10 | +1.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 100 | 29 | 200 | 870 | 187 | 98 | 38 | 29% | 2.0 | 21.4% | 11.2% | 10.2% | 4.3% | 4.50 | 5.10 | +0.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Michael Mercado (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.33 | 21.7% | 14.3% | 3.4% | — | 5.40 | 21.1% | 7.4% | 350 | +0.07 | — | — | — |
| Grant Black R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.49 | 19.0% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .327 | 5.46 | 15.2% | 3.1% | 156 | +0.97 | 4.49 | 215 | 73 |
| Jacob Webb R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.56 | 21.0% | 15.2% | 2.4% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.34 | 252 | 72 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2027 · 4.81 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.81 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.0% | .265 | 3.88 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.93 | 3.53 | 365 | 72 |
| Lucas Erceg R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.51 | 20.8% | 14.0% | 2.5% | .339 | 2.99 | 24.6% | 15.7% | 193 | -1.52 | 2.09 | 339 | 71 |
| Fernery Ozuna R 2026 · 5.77 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.77 | 19.5% | 13.5% | 4.7% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.97 | 157 | 71 |
| Cole McDonald R 2026 · 5.38 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.38 | 21.1% | 13.8% | 4.2% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.72 | 153 | 70 |
| David Holman R 2026 · 5.25 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.25 | 15.6% | 12.7% | 3.4% | .324 | 5.21 | 9.6% | 0.5% | 107 | -0.04 | 5.04 | 129 | 70 |
| José Cisnero R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.40 | 26.1% | 11.7% | 3.7% | .367 | 4.02 | 24.5% | 13.3% | 75 | -0.38 | 2.28 | 279 | 70 |
| Derek Eitel R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.32 | 18.1% | 13.9% | 1.8% | .338 | 4.21 | 19.7% | 5.0% | 113 | -0.11 | 3.85 | 138 | 70 |
| Michael Ynoa R 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.64 | 23.1% | 13.8% | 3.2% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 142 | 70 |
| Fernando Cruz R 2024 · 5.41 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.41 | 15.6% | 12.2% | 3.8% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.52 | 356 | 70 |
| Luis Mateo R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.33 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 2.4% | .309 | 5.34 | 8.6% | -4.8% | 43 | +1.01 | 3.43 | 160 | 70 |
| Nic Swanson R 2026 · 5.12 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.12 | 23.8% | 14.3% | 4.0% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.09 | 414 | 70 |
| Logan Taylor R 2025 · 4.78 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.78 | 17.2% | 12.1% | 2.9% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 300 | 70 |
| Brian Glowicki R 2026 · 5.30 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.30 | 18.2% | 15.9% | 3.1% | .229 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.36 | 189 | 69 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2029 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.87 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .292 | 1.30 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.57 | 1.30 | 218 | 69 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.51 | 20.5% | 12.6% | 2.8% | .355 | 4.54 | 16.5% | 6.1% | 39 | +0.03 | 3.57 | 187 | 69 |
| Ryan Conroy R 2024 · 4.73 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.73 | 19.3% | 12.6% | 3.0% | .361 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.86 | 106 | 69 |
| Arcenio Leon R 2027 · 4.44 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.44 | 17.9% | 12.5% | 2.3% | .450 | 3.38 | 18.0% | 9.1% | 85 | -1.06 | 3.03 | 115 | 69 |
| Morris Austin R 2025 · 5.05 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.05 | 22.3% | 14.8% | 3.6% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.08 | 164 | 69 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 118 | 21.2% | 13.8% | 1.37 | 5.23 |
| Brandon Finnegan ('18) | 3 | 80 | 19.7% | 11.6% | 1.57 | 4.19 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Tom Koehler ('17) | 3 | 146 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 1.24 | 4.62 |
| Josiah Gray ('23) | 3 | 126 | 22.6% | 10.8% | 1.88 | 4.64 |
| James Kaprielian ('23) | 3 | 105 | 20.5% | 9.6% | 1.26 | 4.58 |
| Chris Tillman ('18) | 4 | 116 | 16.5% | 9.7% | 1.34 | 5.42 |