Andrew Alvarez

P Washington Nationals

Age 28 LHP 6'3" / 215 lbs MLB Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 1.2 · 2028

Overview

MLBSP40-MANArb-1FA 2031

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	MIX2 levels	26	26	132	3.90	3.86	20.3%	9.4%	—	K 17.0% · BB 9.2% · FIP 4.29
2025	26	MIX2 levels	30	30	146	3.81	3.78	21.3%	9.9%	2.0	K 18.8% · BB 9.0% · FIP 4.05
2026	27	MIX2 levels	32	24	147	3.87	3.54	25.7%	10.8%	2.4	K 24.7% · BB 10.6% · FIP 3.66
2027PROJ	28	MLBWSH	14	14	82	4.13	4.39	21.0%	10.4%	0.5
2028PROJ95% MLB	29	MLBWSH	12	12	74	4.22	4.28	22.4%	9.8%	0.5
2029PROJ95% MLB	30	MLBWSH	12	12	70	4.38	4.48	21.7%	10.1%	0.3

Last 3 seasons WAR 4.4 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2030Service2.000First FA2031Super-2

2027Arb-1$1M2028Arb-2$2M2029Arb-3$3M2030Arb-4$3M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

K%60

Whiff%57

xwOBA vs47

FB Velo18

CompsDanny Wirchansky (age 27) · Matt Tracy (age 28) · James Gillheeney (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 97105vR 113

ERA4.13

FIP4.39

K%21.0%

BB%10.4%

K-BB%10.7%

Proj IP82

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 82 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$1M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†5055

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1892.2

Whiff%

p5726.4%

p6024.1%

xwOBA vs

p470.315

FB+1.0 (42%)

SI (14%)

CU (32%)

CH (5%)

SL (21%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2025

Service 2.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-1	$1M	+0.5	$2M	+$0.6M
2028	Arb-2	$2M	+0.5	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Arb-3	$3M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-4	$3M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$1M		$5M	+$0.6M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	0	9	38	12	4	0	0%	1.3	31.6%	10.5%	21.1%	0.0%	1.00	1.77	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	0	9	38	12	4	0	0%	1.3	31.6%	10.5%	21.1%	0.0%	1.00	1.77	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	9	85	387	103	34	4	32%	3.0	19.9%	10.3%	9.7%	1.2%	5.00	3.39	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	9	85	387	103	34	4	32%	3.0	26.6%	8.8%	17.8%	1.0%	5.00	2.49	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	22	129	526	116	43	9	85%	5.0	17.1%	9.3%	7.8%	2.1%	2.99	3.96	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	22	129	526	116	43	9	85%	5.0	22.1%	8.2%	13.9%	1.7%	2.99	3.21	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	132	561	114	53	13	100%	5.1	17.0%	9.2%	7.8%	2.7%	3.90	4.29	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	132	561	114	53	13	100%	5.1	17.0%	9.2%	7.8%	2.7%	3.90	4.29	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	132	561	114	53	13	100%	5.1	20.3%	9.4%	10.9%	2.3%	3.90	3.86	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	30	146	628	134	62	14	100%	4.9	18.8%	9.0%	9.8%	2.5%	3.81	4.05	+1.5
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	30	146	628	134	62	14	100%	4.9	18.8%	9.0%	9.8%	2.5%	3.81	4.05	+1.5
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	30	146	628	134	62	14	100%	4.9	21.3%	9.9%	11.5%	2.2%	3.81	3.78	+2.0
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	24	147	619	159	67	14	75%	4.6	24.7%	10.6%	14.1%	2.4%	3.87	3.66	+2.2
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	24	147	619	159	67	14	75%	4.6	24.7%	10.6%	14.1%	2.4%	3.87	3.66	+2.2
2026	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	24	147	619	159	67	14	75%	4.6	25.7%	10.8%	14.9%	2.3%	3.87	3.54	+2.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			30	22	136	571	134	61	8	73%	4.5	23.5%	10.7%	12.8%	1.4%	3.24	3.24	+2.8
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	WSH	14	14	82	346	73	36	9	100%	5.9	21.0%	10.4%	10.7%	2.5%	4.13	4.39	+0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	WSH	13	13	78	331	74	32	9	100%	6.0	22.4%	9.8%	12.7%	2.6%	4.22	4.28	+0.6
2029	30	MLB MLE	WSH	12	12	74	311	68	31	9	100%	6.1	21.7%	10.1%	11.7%	2.8%	4.38	4.48	+0.4
2030	31	MLB MLE	WSH	11	11	69	290	61	30	9	100%	6.2	21.0%	10.4%	10.6%	3.1%	4.58	4.71	+0.1
2031	32	MLB MLE	WSH	11	11	64	268	54	29	9	100%	5.8	20.2%	10.8%	9.4%	3.3%	4.81	4.97	-0.1
2028	29	MLB CTX	WSH	12	12	74	312	70	31	8	100%	6.2	22.4%	9.8%	12.7%	2.6%	4.22	4.28	+0.5
2029	30	MLB CTX	WSH	12	12	70	296	64	30	8	100%	5.8	21.7%	10.1%	11.7%	2.8%	4.38	4.48	+0.3
2030	31	MLB CTX	WSH	11	11	65	274	58	29	8	100%	5.9	21.0%	10.4%	10.6%	3.1%	4.58	4.71	+0.1
2031	32	MLB CTX	WSH	10	10	60	253	51	27	8	100%	6.0	20.2%	10.8%	9.4%	3.3%	4.81	4.97	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		75	67	406	1711	378	178	42	89%	5.4	22.1%	10.4%	11.7%	2.4%	4.07	3.89	+4.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		37	33	200	843	186	88	21	89%	5.4	22.1%	10.4%	11.7%	2.4%	4.07	3.89	+2.4
Career	—	MLE		149	111	648	2759	545	267	61	74%	4.3	19.8%	9.7%	10.1%	2.2%	3.79	3.87	+3.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	34	200	852	168	82	19	74%	4.3	19.8%	9.7%	10.1%	2.2%	3.79	3.87	+1.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Andrew Alvarez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.39	21.0%	10.4%	2.5%	—	4.48	21.8%	11.7%	221	+0.09	—	—	—
Danny Wirchansky L 2024 · 4.47 FIP	27	SP-	4.47	16.2%	7.4%	3.3%	.246	5.88	13.0%	0.2%	68	+1.41	4.47	179	69
Matt Tracy L 2017 · 4.82 FIP	28	SP-	4.82	16.1%	9.4%	3.5%	.325	3.24	13.9%	3.5%	49	-1.58	3.24	298	68
James Gillheeney L 2015 · 3.79 FIP	27	SP-	3.79	14.4%	8.0%	1.6%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	129	68
Chipper Smith L 2015 · 3.81 FIP	25	SP-	3.81	15.6%	9.5%	1.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	109	68
Hogan Harris L 2024 · 4.46 FIP	27	SP-	4.46	20.3%	11.8%	2.9%	.312	3.42	26.7%	15.1%	150	-1.04	3.09	501	68
Ben Shields L 2024 · 3.23 FIP	25	SP-	3.23	25.3%	8.2%	2.2%	.273	3.02	23.5%	13.3%	43	-0.21	3.02	147	67
John Anderson L 2016 · 4.23 FIP	27	SP-	4.23	14.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.367	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	235	65
Kyle Hart L 2021 · 4.88 FIP	28	SP	4.88	17.0%	10.6%	3.4%	.262	4.52	18.3%	9.3%	172	-0.36	3.60	886	65
Eric Wooten L 2015 · 4.02 FIP	25	SP-	4.02	14.6%	7.5%	2.2%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	116	64
Zach Logue L 2024 · 3.67 FIP	28	SP-	3.67	19.7%	6.4%	2.6%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	700	63
Dylan Dodd L 2024 · 4.71 FIP	26	SP-	4.71	17.5%	6.0%	4.2%	.338	3.97	26.5%	21.7%	123	-0.74	3.31	475	63
Ryan Bollinger L 2018 · 3.56 FIP	27	SP	3.56	17.1%	7.5%	1.7%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	112	63
Chris Narveson L 2010 · 4.00 FIP	28	SP-	4.00	18.9%	7.7%	2.8%	.296	4.01	18.0%	8.8%	162	+0.01	4.00	625	63
Phil Pfeifer L 2019 · 3.61 FIP	27	SP-	3.61	21.9%	8.5%	2.4%	.298	5.65	19.5%	4.7%	35	+2.04	3.61	307	62
T.J. Sikkema L 2024 · 3.57 FIP	26	SP-	3.57	18.5%	6.0%	2.3%	.282	4.10	16.1%	7.2%	87	+0.53	3.57	300	62
Tyler Alexander L 2019 · 5.56 FIP	27	SP-	5.56	21.7%	9.8%	5.6%	.289	5.27	15.7%	5.0%	26	-0.29	5.27	128	62
Houston Harding L 2024 · 4.54 FIP	26	SP-	4.54	16.5%	11.2%	2.6%	.268	5.19	12.0%	0.5%	61	+0.65	3.41	239	62
Chris O'Grady L 2017 · 4.33 FIP	27	SP-	4.33	21.4%	9.0%	3.5%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	232	62
Nate Fisher L 2023 · 5.47 FIP	27	SP-	5.47	15.1%	9.1%	4.5%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	1.42	229	62
Kyle Hald L 2015 · 4.33 FIP	26	SP	4.33	12.1%	7.4%	2.4%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	4.33	124	61

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.5	72	21.9%	10.4%	0.95	4.09
Dan Osinski ('62-'70, 4 WAR*)	2.9	84	20.1%*	10.4%*	0.88*	4.00*
Jim Hughes ('52-'57, 2 WAR*)	1.5	74	22.2%*	11.1%*	1.05*	3.99*
George Frazier ('78-'87, 2 WAR*)	3.4	68	21.6%*	10.5%*	0.92*	4.42*
Carlos Torres ('19)	2.5	72	20.7%	8.9%	1.12	4.09
Alexi Ogando ('18)	2.5	72	19.3%	8.8%	0.95	3.50
Billy Koch ('04)	2.0	68	20.1%	10.7%	0.91	3.89