Moises Lugo
P
El Paso Chihuahuas
Age 27
RHP
6'1" / 185 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 29 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119110vR 100
ERA4.39
FIP4.39
K%23.7%
BB%10.4%
K-BB%13.3%
ROS IP30
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 29 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 18 | ROK | DSL Padres | 13 | 13 | 64 | 254 | 54 | 17 | 1 | 100% | 4.9 | 14.5% | 8.4% | 6.1% | 0.6% | 1.97 | 3.24 | — |
| 2017 | 18 | ROK | DSL Padres | 13 | 13 | 64 | 254 | 54 | 17 | 1 | 100% | 4.9 | 21.3% | 6.7% | 14.6% | 0.4% | 1.97 | 2.41 | — |
| 2018 | 19 | ROK | AZL Padres 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 23 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 1.5 | 17.4% | 17.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 24.00 | 3.83 | — |
| 2018 | 19 | ROK | AZL Padres 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 23 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 1.5 | 17.4% | 17.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 24.00 | 4.43 | — |
| 2019 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 2 | 40 | 167 | 41 | 8 | 3 | 14% | 2.9 | 18.5% | 4.5% | 14.0% | 1.0% | 3.83 | 2.66 | — |
| 2019 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 2 | 40 | 167 | 41 | 8 | 3 | 14% | 2.9 | 24.6% | 4.8% | 19.8% | 1.8% | 3.83 | 2.62 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 19 | 90 | 376 | 115 | 40 | 10 | 83% | 3.9 | 23.8% | 12.1% | 11.7% | 3.1% | 3.19 | 4.34 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 19 | 90 | 376 | 115 | 40 | 10 | 83% | 3.9 | 30.6% | 10.6% | 19.9% | 2.7% | 3.19 | 3.32 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 1 | 73 | 306 | 97 | 39 | 6 | 3% | 1.9 | 26.7% | 14.5% | 12.2% | 2.5% | 3.22 | 4.06 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 1 | 73 | 306 | 97 | 39 | 6 | 3% | 1.9 | 31.7% | 12.7% | 19.0% | 2.0% | 3.22 | 3.11 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | 46 | 0 | 50 | 240 | 69 | 38 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.3% | 16.6% | 8.7% | 1.7% | 6.16 | 3.98 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | 46 | 0 | 50 | 240 | 69 | 38 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.7% | 15.8% | 12.9% | 1.7% | 6.16 | 3.66 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | SD | 28 | 0 | 30 | 125 | 30 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.7% | 10.4% | 13.3% | 2.9% | 4.39 | 4.39 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | SD | 27 | 0 | 29 | 121 | 29 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.5% | 10.5% | 13.1% | 3.0% | 4.44 | 4.47 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | SD | 11 | 0 | 12 | 51 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.5% | 10.5% | 13.1% | 3.0% | 4.44 | 4.47 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 12 | 0 | 12 | 52 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.5% | 10.5% | 13.1% | 3.0% | 4.44 | 4.09 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 197 | 82 | 33 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.5% | 10.5% | 13.1% | 3.0% | 4.44 | 4.09 | +3.1 | ||
| Career | — | 137 | 37 | 320 | 1366 | 303 | 163 | 26 | 27% | 2.3 | 22.2% | 11.9% | 10.3% | 1.9% | 3.69 | 3.80 | +6.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 86 | 23 | 200 | 855 | 190 | 102 | 17 | 27% | 2.3 | 22.2% | 11.9% | 10.3% | 1.9% | 3.69 | 3.80 | +3.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Moises Lugo (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.39 | 23.7% | 10.4% | 2.9% | — | 4.47 | 23.5% | 13.1% | 29 | +0.08 | — | — | — |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2027 · 4.14 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.14 | 20.2% | 7.4% | 3.3% | .348 | 3.66 | 23.4% | 13.2% | 86 | -0.48 | 2.38 | 160 | 78 |
| Taylor Grover R 2025 · 4.89 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.89 | 20.0% | 10.9% | 3.8% | .320 | 4.92 | 16.2% | 8.9% | 14 | +0.03 | 3.63 | 239 | 76 |
| Jake Stinnett R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.07 | 21.1% | 12.2% | 2.2% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.88 | 356 | 76 |
| Derek Gordon R 2024 · 4.72 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.72 | 19.9% | 9.3% | 3.9% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.72 | 146 | 75 |
| Grant Black R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.49 | 19.0% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .327 | 5.46 | 15.2% | 3.1% | 156 | +0.97 | 4.49 | 215 | 75 |
| Esmil Rogers R 2028 · 3.51 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.51 | 18.5% | 8.9% | 1.6% | .348 | 2.88 | 21.7% | 17.9% | 40 | -0.63 | 2.88 | 199 | 75 |
| Caleb Bolden R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.55 | 23.0% | 10.0% | 2.1% | .346 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 222 | 75 |
| Edwin Quirarte R 2027 · 3.59 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.59 | 16.7% | 6.2% | 2.0% | .311 | 3.45 | 12.7% | 4.9% | 83 | -0.14 | 3.21 | 157 | 74 |
| Austin Ross R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.86 | 22.9% | 8.0% | 3.1% | .295 | 3.60 | 12.4% | 5.2% | 127 | -0.26 | 3.19 | 269 | 73 |
| Wil Jensen R 2025 · 3.41 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.41 | 22.7% | 8.4% | 2.1% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 368 | 73 |
| Trevin Michael R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.08 | 23.0% | 9.1% | 3.2% | .230 | 3.59 | 23.5% | 7.2% | 40 | -0.49 | 2.74 | 188 | 73 |
| Dylan King R 2024 · 4.28 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.28 | 26.7% | 9.8% | 4.0% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.28 | 121 | 73 |
| Luis Mateo R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.33 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 2.4% | .309 | 5.34 | 8.6% | -4.8% | 43 | +1.01 | 3.43 | 160 | 73 |
| Tanner Kohlhepp R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.74 | 23.4% | 7.6% | 3.0% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 150 | 73 |
| Cristofer Ogando R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.96 | 26.8% | 10.9% | 5.0% | .281 | 4.83 | 20.6% | 9.0% | 53 | -0.13 | 3.23 | 179 | 73 |
| Jordan Milbrath R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.88 | 21.5% | 9.5% | 2.5% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.26 | 386 | 72 |
| Sam Lewis R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.43 | 21.0% | 10.8% | 1.3% | .246 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.10 | 224 | 72 |
| Nic Swanson R 2026 · 5.12 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.12 | 23.8% | 14.3% | 4.0% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.09 | 414 | 72 |
| Roberto Gómez R 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.13 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.7% | .315 | 5.25 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.12 | 4.13 | 115 | 72 |
| Evan Gates R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.87 | 22.5% | 11.8% | 2.1% | .312 | 4.34 | 18.5% | 10.4% | 35 | +0.47 | 3.74 | 277 | 72 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 29 | 23.6% | 10.5% | 1.14 | 4.41 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Santiago Casilla ('18) | 4 | 52 | 23.5% | 9.6% | 0.96 | 3.49 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| Keegan Thompson ('24) | 4 | 57 | 23.0% | 11.3% | 1.19 | 3.64 |