Robinson Piña P Buffalo Bisons
Age 27 RHP 6'5" / 225 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 0.7 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 70 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121112vR 103
ERA4.51
FIP4.51
K%18.7%
BB%7.1%
K-BB%11.6%
ROS IP70
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP
K: -1.6 runs (Runs saved by strikeouts vs lg-avg K%)-2KBB: +0.9 runs (Runs saved by walk suppression vs lg-avg BB%)+1BBCONTACT: -1.9 runs (Runs saved on contact quality (HR suppression) vs lg)-2CONTACTSTAM: +4.5 runs (Replacement credit for innings volume)+5STAMTotal WAR: +0.21 (70 IP)+0.2WAR
0.00.51.00.00.00.00.0-$2M ctrl surplus26272829303132333435
projected WAR paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Arsenal · Contract
Scouting Grades
STUF4545
CTRL6060
CMD5050
K†4545
SI (43%)
FB (61%)
SL-0.8 (15%)
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2027
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2032
First FA Year   2033
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2026MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M
2030Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $-1.0M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

YearAge LvlTeam GGSIPBF KBBHR GS%IP/G K%BB%K-BB%HR% ERAFIP WAR
201718ROKDSL Angels1511512144724073%3.414.9%14.0%0.9%0.0%3.683.61
201718ROKDSL Angels1511512144724073%3.422.0%11.2%10.7%0.0%3.682.67
201819ROKOrem Owlz19144191611915%2.321.7%12.4%9.3%0.7%3.483.24
201819ROKOrem Owlz19144191611915%2.331.9%9.9%22.0%0.5%3.481.92
201920ABurlington Bees262110847514661581%4.222.7%15.2%7.6%1.5%3.833.92
201920ABurlington Bees262110847514661581%4.230.7%12.8%17.9%1.1%3.832.69
202122MIX3 levels2121954111405613100%4.526.2%15.6%10.6%3.4%4.444.73
202122MIX3 levels2121954111405613100%4.534.1%13.6%20.4%3.2%4.443.70
202223MIX2 levels211585362122311171%4.126.9%8.2%18.7%4.2%4.434.15
202223MIX2 levels211585362122311171%4.133.7%8.6%25.1%3.0%4.433.01
202324MIX3 levels3411974219055532%2.915.8%14.6%1.1%1.6%4.074.47
202324MIX3 levels3411974219055532%2.921.4%13.1%8.3%1.2%4.073.61
202425MIX2 levels25251295521322718100%5.219.7%5.3%14.4%3.2%4.183.86
202425MIX2 levels25251295521322718100%5.223.9%4.9%19.0%3.3%4.183.49
202526MIX2 levels1913682896320768%3.619.8%7.3%12.6%3.5%3.724.24+0.4
202526MIX2 levels1913682896320768%3.621.8%6.9%14.9%2.4%3.723.47+1.0
▸ 2026 Season
202627MLBTOR12127029655219100%5.818.7%7.1%11.6%3.1%4.514.51+0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections   WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ
202728MLBTOR11116828755219100%6.219.1%7.5%11.6%3.2%4.544.57+0.1
202829MLBTOR11116527452219100%5.919.2%7.8%11.3%3.3%4.624.68-0.0
202930MLBTOR10106125749219100%6.119.0%8.2%10.8%3.5%4.754.84-0.2
203031MLBTOR995724045219100%6.318.7%8.6%10.2%3.7%4.915.03-0.3
202728MLBTOR55291222394100%5.819.1%7.5%11.6%3.2%4.544.57-0.0
202829MLBTOR663816031135100%6.319.2%7.8%11.3%3.3%4.624.68-0.1
202930MLBTOR774318235156100%6.119.0%8.2%10.8%3.5%4.754.84-0.1
203031MLBTOR774418635167100%6.318.7%8.6%10.2%3.7%4.915.03-0.2
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career2826157666125542493%5.618.7%8.1%10.7%3.6%4.774.49+1.7
/ 200 IP3533200850160693193%5.718.7%8.1%10.7%3.6%4.774.49+2.1
Career18011867829156193317266%3.821.2%11.4%9.9%2.5%4.054.10+10.3
/ 200 IP5335200859182982166%3.821.2%11.4%9.9%2.5%4.054.10+3.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Profile at Match Age Next 3 Yrs Career
CompAgeRole FIPK%BB%HR/BFBABIP FIPK%K-BB%IP ΔFIPLow FIPIPMatch
Robinson Piña (OGILVIE) 4.51 18.7%7.1%3.1% 4.69 19.1%11.3%194 +0.18
Justin Topa R 2026 · 4.05 FIP 27 SP- 4.05 15.1%7.9%2.2%.374 2.66 19.2%12.6%40 -1.39 2.66 259 71
Raynel Espinal R 2026 · 3.76 FIP 27 SP- 3.76 22.4%7.1%3.0%.313 3.72 22.3%12.4%224 -0.04 2.53 507 68
Chase Whitley R 2026 · 4.04 FIP 27 SP- 4.04 19.5%7.0%3.1%.217 3.24 18.0%11.8%81 -0.80 3.11 159 68
Preston Johnson R 2025 · 3.47 FIP 26 SP- 3.47 23.4%9.5%2.1%.295 3.47 146 67
Jorge López R 2026 · 4.60 FIP 27 SP- 4.60 16.1%6.3%3.7%.305 4.13 20.9%12.1%252 -0.47 2.89 955 65
Dawson Netz R 2024 · 4.42 FIP 25 SP- 4.42 23.3%10.7%3.5%.225 4.42 102 65
Alex Cobb R 2027 · 5.20 FIP 28 SP 5.20 14.0%6.9%4.4%.366 4.43 16.3%10.7%344 -0.77 2.78 844 65
Trevor Richards R 2026 · 4.83 FIP 27 SW 4.83 18.0%7.3%4.2%.358 3.97 31.3%21.1%201 -0.86 2.61 890 64
Chad Dallas R 2025 · 3.40 FIP 26 SP- 3.40 19.8%8.9%1.6%.299 3.40 322 64
Aldo Montes R 2026 · 4.65 FIP 27 SP- 4.65 12.4%8.5%2.8%.322 4.41 18.2%7.6%75 -0.24 4.41 210 63
Max Beatty R 2025 · 3.69 FIP 26 SP- 3.69 13.2%6.4%1.6%.309 3.69 117 63
Antonio Guzman R 2026 · 3.60 FIP 27 SP 3.60 18.8%11.2%1.2%.328 3.63 20.6%11.3%170 +0.03 3.22 254 62
Bryce Morrow R 2026 · 4.48 FIP 27 SP- 4.48 12.8%7.9%2.7%.316 5.59 10.1%-0.2%50 +1.11 4.48 125 62
Ryan Gusto R 2026 · 3.68 FIP 27 SP- 3.68 22.2%9.0%2.4%.313 3.68 521 62
Sam Lewis R 2026 · 3.43 FIP 27 SP- 3.43 21.0%10.8%1.3%.246 2.10 224 62
Alfonso Sanchez R 2026 · 4.81 FIP 27 SP- 4.81 12.5%9.1%2.9%.346 4.97 14.0%5.3%138 +0.16 4.54 224 62
Zac Kristofak R 2025 · 5.03 FIP 26 SP- 5.03 11.4%6.8%3.7%.283 4.14 168 61
Kyle Lloyd R 2026 · 4.17 FIP 27 SP- 4.17 18.2%9.8%2.5%.336 4.33 17.2%9.3%110 +0.16 3.46 572 61
Rubby De La Rosa R 2026 · 4.02 FIP 27 SP- 4.02 24.3%8.6%3.5%.248 4.01 27.6%18.3%42 -0.01 3.97 281 61
Burch Smith R 2026 · 3.94 FIP 27 SP 3.94 19.5%12.6%1.6%.234 4.41 22.2%10.5%192 +0.47 3.39 382 61

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

PlayerYrsIP/yrK%BB%HR/9ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION56419.0%7.8%1.304.66
Joe Biagini ('19)48119.1%7.8%1.284.86
Matt Albers ('19)54920.3%8.3%1.374.21
Jarlín García ('22)56119.6%7.8%1.333.79
Shane Greene ('21)75621.4%8.5%1.164.67
Adam Morgan ('21)65920.5%7.1%1.564.77
Drew VerHagen ('23)64319.7%9.4%1.404.82