Robinson Piña
P
Buffalo Bisons
+0.8
WAR
Age 27
RHP
6'5" / 225 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032
peak 0.8 · 2026
ERA4.41
FIP4.41
xFIP6.87
SIERA5.84
K%20.4%
BB%8.0%
K-BB%12.5%
IP87
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.8peak
2026
K†5055
SI (43%)
FB (61%)
SL-0.8 (15%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 18 | ROK | DSL Angels | 15 | 11 | 51 | 214 | 47 | 24 | 0 | 14.9% | 14.0% | 0.0% | 3.68 | 3.61 | +0.8 |
| 2018 | 19 | ROK | Orem Owlz | 19 | 1 | 44 | 191 | 61 | 19 | 1 | 21.7% | 12.4% | 0.7% | 3.48 | 3.24 | +0.9 |
| 2019 | 20 | A | Burlington Bees | 26 | 21 | 108 | 475 | 146 | 61 | 5 | 22.7% | 15.2% | 1.4% | 3.83 | 3.89 | +1.7 |
| 2021 | 22 | AA | Rocket City Trash Pandas | 21 | 21 | 95 | 411 | 140 | 56 | 13 | 26.2% | 15.6% | 3.5% | 4.44 | 4.81 | +0.5 |
| 2022 | 23 | AAA | Salt Lake Bees | 21 | 15 | 85 | 362 | 122 | 31 | 11 | 26.9% | 8.2% | 3.4% | 4.43 | 3.72 | +1.4 |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA | Salt Lake Bees | 34 | 11 | 97 | 421 | 90 | 55 | 5 | 15.8% | 14.6% | 1.5% | 4.07 | 4.47 | +0.9 |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | 25 | 25 | 129 | 552 | 132 | 27 | 18 | 19.7% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 4.18 | 4.04 | +1.8 |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 19 | 13 | 68 | 289 | 63 | 20 | 7 | 19.8% | 7.3% | 2.9% | 3.72 | 3.92 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | TOR | 16 | 16 | 87 | 366 | 75 | 29 | 11 | 20.4% | 8.0% | 3.0% | 4.41 | 4.41 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | TOR | 16 | 16 | 87 | 369 | 76 | 29 | 11 | 20.5% | 8.0% | 3.0% | 4.41 | 4.42 | +0.8 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | TOR | 16 | 16 | 85 | 360 | 74 | 29 | 11 | 20.5% | 8.0% | 3.1% | 4.43 | 4.45 | +0.7 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | TOR | 15 | 15 | 83 | 349 | 71 | 28 | 11 | 20.4% | 8.1% | 3.1% | 4.47 | 4.51 | +0.6 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | TOR | 15 | 15 | 80 | 337 | 75 | 25 | 11 | 22.2% | 7.4% | 3.2% | 4.36 | 4.30 | +0.7 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | TOR | 14 | 14 | 77 | 323 | 71 | 24 | 11 | 21.9% | 7.6% | 3.3% | 4.38 | 4.39 | +0.6 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | TOR | 13 | 13 | 73 | 309 | 67 | 24 | 10 | 21.6% | 7.8% | 3.4% | 4.44 | 4.49 | +0.5 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | TOR | 13 | 13 | 70 | 293 | 62 | 23 | 10 | 21.3% | 8.0% | 3.5% | 4.53 | 4.60 | +0.3 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | TOR | 12 | 12 | 66 | 277 | 58 | 23 | 10 | 20.9% | 8.2% | 3.6% | 4.64 | 4.72 | +0.2 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | TOR | 11 | 11 | 61 | 258 | 53 | 22 | 10 | 20.5% | 8.4% | 3.7% | 4.77 | 4.85 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 180 | 118 | 678 | 2915 | 619 | 331 | 69 | 21.2% | 11.4% | 2.4% | 4.05 | 4.05 | +9.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 53 | 35 | 200 | 859 | 183 | 98 | 20 | 21.2% | 11.4% | 2.4% | 4.05 | 4.05 | +2.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Robinson Piña (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.41 | 20.4% | 8.0% | 3.0% | — | 4.46 | 20.5% | 12.5% | 255 | +0.05 | — | — | — |
| Justin De Fratus R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.80 | 18.8% | 8.3% | 2.3% | .325 | 4.62 | 12.4% | 6.9% | 279 | +0.82 | 3.80 | 500 | 65 |
| Jonathan Pintaro R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.21 | 24.4% | 13.2% | 2.7% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 152 | 63 |
| Jordan Lyles R 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.69 | 22.6% | 6.7% | 3.0% | .284 | 4.86 | 20.2% | 12.1% | 379 | +1.17 | 3.49 | 1,080 | 63 |
| Bud Norris R 2029 · 4.64 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.64 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 3.8% | .327 | 3.81 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -0.83 | 3.39 | 316 | 63 |
| Danny Farquhar R 2027 · 3.94 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.94 | 22.4% | 6.8% | 3.4% | .324 | 3.78 | 22.0% | 12.8% | 135 | -0.16 | 3.62 | 224 | 62 |
| Luis Cessa R 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.54 | 21.9% | 8.7% | 4.0% | .272 | 4.05 | 18.9% | 11.2% | 167 | -0.49 | 3.15 | 891 | 62 |
| Aaron Northcraft R 2025 · 4.23 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.23 | 16.1% | 8.3% | 2.6% | .309 | 3.32 | 24.1% | 13.4% | 34 | -0.91 | 3.32 | 252 | 62 |
| Tyler Duffey R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.89 | 21.1% | 6.5% | 3.2% | .265 | 2.81 | 30.4% | 22.3% | 158 | -1.08 | 2.34 | 803 | 61 |
| Michael Lorenzen R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.43 | 24.8% | 7.9% | 2.6% | .266 | 3.90 | 20.6% | 9.8% | 160 | +0.47 | 3.19 | 1,070 | 61 |
| Wil Jensen R 2025 · 3.50 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.50 | 22.7% | 8.4% | 2.3% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 368 | 61 |
| Bryan Shaw R 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.91 | 20.4% | 6.8% | 3.0% | .276 | 3.53 | 23.3% | 15.0% | 198 | -0.38 | 2.86 | 596 | 61 |
| Josh Roeder R 2025 · 4.72 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.72 | 15.1% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.72 | 175 | 61 |
| Roberto Gómez R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.98 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .315 | 5.24 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.26 | 3.98 | 115 | 60 |
| Nick Morreale R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.97 | 19.0% | 8.5% | 2.5% | .271 | 3.72 | 11.7% | -1.1% | 14 | -0.25 | 2.97 | 280 | 60 |
| Alejandro Martinez R 2025 · 4.43 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.43 | 17.5% | 10.9% | 2.6% | .393 | 4.26 | 9.2% | 3.9% | 53 | -0.17 | 4.26 | 166 | 60 |
| Neftalí Feliz R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.58 | 18.2% | 5.7% | 2.4% | .337 | 4.93 | 20.2% | 8.4% | 191 | +1.35 | 3.58 | 291 | 60 |
| Hector Noesí R 2027 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.38 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 250 | 60 |
| Barry Enright R 2028 · 3.41 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.41 | 15.9% | 4.4% | 2.0% | .306 | 3.90 | 13.3% | 9.2% | 226 | +0.49 | 3.20 | 315 | 60 |
| Michael Wacha R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.18 | 20.0% | 10.1% | 2.7% | .247 | 4.98 | 21.0% | 13.9% | 285 | +0.80 | 2.76 | 1,477 | 59 |
| Matt Cain R 2029 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.87 | 17.1% | 6.8% | 4.3% | .296 | 5.04 | 15.2% | 7.6% | 214 | +0.17 | 4.87 | 294 | 59 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2027
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2032
First FA Year 2033
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2027 | |||
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.8 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $2M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $2M | +0.6 | $3M | +$0.8M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.5 | $2M | -$0.1M |
| Totals | $9M | $17M | +$9M | ||