Robinson Piña — OGILVIE

Robinson Piña P Buffalo Bisons

Age 27 RHP 6'5" / 225 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 0.8 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 100

ERA4.37

FIP4.37

K%18.0%

BB%6.1%

K-BB%12.0%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 6 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$1M ctrl surplus

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL6060

CMD5050

K†4545

SI (43%)

FB (61%)

SL-0.8 (15%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.8M		$1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	18	ROK MLE	DSL Angels	15	11	51	214	47	24	0	73%	3.4	14.9%	14.0%	0.9%	0.0%	3.68	3.61	—
2017	18	ROK RAW	DSL Angels	15	11	51	214	47	24	0	73%	3.4	22.0%	11.2%	10.7%	0.0%	3.68	2.67	—
2018	19	ROK MLE	Orem Owlz	19	1	44	191	61	19	1	5%	2.3	21.7%	12.4%	9.3%	0.7%	3.48	3.24	—
2018	19	ROK RAW	Orem Owlz	19	1	44	191	61	19	1	5%	2.3	31.9%	9.9%	22.0%	0.5%	3.48	1.92	—
2019	20	A MLE	Burlington Bees	26	21	108	475	146	61	5	81%	4.2	22.7%	15.2%	7.6%	1.4%	3.83	3.88	—
2019	20	A RAW	Burlington Bees	26	21	108	475	146	61	5	81%	4.2	30.7%	12.8%	17.9%	1.1%	3.83	2.69	—
2021	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	21	95	411	140	56	13	100%	4.5	26.2%	15.6%	10.6%	3.6%	4.44	4.83	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	21	21	95	411	140	56	13	100%	4.5	34.1%	13.6%	20.4%	3.2%	4.44	3.70	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	15	85	362	122	31	11	71%	4.1	26.9%	8.2%	18.7%	3.2%	4.43	3.63	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	15	85	362	122	31	11	71%	4.1	33.7%	8.6%	25.1%	3.0%	4.43	3.01	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	34	11	97	421	90	55	5	32%	2.9	15.6%	13.8%	1.8%	1.5%	4.07	4.37	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	34	11	97	421	90	55	5	32%	2.9	15.6%	13.8%	1.8%	1.5%	4.07	4.37	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	34	11	97	421	90	55	5	32%	2.9	21.4%	13.1%	8.3%	1.2%	4.07	3.61	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	129	552	132	27	18	100%	5.2	19.5%	4.9%	14.6%	3.5%	4.18	3.99	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	129	552	132	27	18	100%	5.2	19.5%	4.9%	14.6%	3.5%	4.18	3.99	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	129	552	132	27	18	100%	5.2	23.9%	4.9%	19.0%	3.3%	4.18	3.49	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	13	68	289	63	20	7	68%	3.6	18.7%	6.2%	12.5%	2.8%	3.72	3.86	+0.8
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	13	68	289	63	20	7	68%	3.6	18.7%	6.2%	12.5%	2.8%	3.72	3.86	+0.8
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	13	68	289	63	20	7	68%	3.6	21.8%	6.9%	14.9%	2.4%	3.72	3.47	+1.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			2	0	2	14	1	1	1	0%	1.2	7.1%	7.1%	0.0%	7.1%	7.71	9.10	-0.1
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	27	MLB	TOR	1	1	6	25	5	2	1	100%	6.0	18.0%	6.1%	12.0%	3.0%	4.37	4.37	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	TOR	11	11	68	287	53	19	9	100%	6.2	18.4%	6.5%	11.9%	3.1%	4.41	4.45	+0.4
2028	29	MLB MLE	TOR	11	11	65	274	51	19	9	100%	5.9	18.6%	7.0%	11.6%	3.2%	4.50	4.57	+0.2
2027	28	MLB CTX	TOR	5	5	29	122	23	8	4	100%	5.8	18.4%	6.5%	11.9%	3.1%	4.41	4.45	+0.2
2028	29	MLB CTX	TOR	6	6	38	160	30	11	5	100%	6.3	18.6%	7.0%	11.6%	3.2%	4.50	4.57	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		13	11	69	297	53	20	10	85%	5.3	18.0%	6.8%	11.2%	3.4%	4.57	4.29	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		38	32	200	856	153	58	29	85%	5.3	18.0%	6.8%	11.2%	3.4%	4.57	4.29	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		180	118	678	2915	614	323	68	66%	3.8	21.1%	11.1%	10.0%	2.3%	4.05	4.01	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		53	35	200	859	181	95	20	66%	3.8	21.1%	11.1%	10.0%	2.3%	4.05	4.01	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Robinson Piña (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.37	18.0%	6.1%	3.0%	—	4.51	18.5%	11.8%	133	+0.14	—	—	—
Justin Topa R 2018 · 4.15 FIP	27	SP-	4.15	15.1%	7.9%	2.4%	.374	2.69	19.2%	12.6%	40	-1.46	2.67	280	70
Chase Whitley R 2016 · 4.10 FIP	27	SP-	4.10	19.5%	7.0%	3.2%	.217	3.22	18.0%	11.8%	81	-0.88	3.09	159	68
Raynel Espinal R 2019 · 3.90 FIP	27	SP-	3.90	22.4%	7.1%	3.2%	.313	4.01	22.3%	12.4%	224	+0.11	2.48	507	68
Alex Cobb R 2016 · 5.26 FIP	28	SP	5.26	14.0%	6.9%	4.5%	.366	4.37	16.3%	10.7%	344	-0.89	2.74	844	64
Max Beatty R 2017 · 3.88 FIP	26	SP-	3.88	13.2%	6.4%	2.0%	.309	—	—	—	—	—	3.88	117	64
Tristan Stevens R 2023 · 4.14 FIP	25	SW	4.14	17.3%	8.2%	2.7%	.411	3.68	15.0%	7.7%	91	-0.46	3.68	126	62
Mitch Neunborn R 2023 · 3.65 FIP	26	SP-	3.65	24.5%	9.5%	2.6%	.232	5.15	17.6%	6.7%	202	+1.50	3.65	245	62
Sean Harney R 2023 · 3.55 FIP	25	SP-	3.55	18.2%	9.8%	1.4%	.285	4.74	16.5%	5.1%	59	+1.19	3.55	123	62
Aldo Montes R 2017 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.4%	8.5%	3.3%	.322	4.69	18.2%	7.6%	75	-0.27	4.69	210	62
Bryce Morrow R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	12.8%	7.9%	2.4%	.316	5.44	10.1%	-0.2%	50	+1.13	4.31	125	62
Ryan Jennings R 2023 · 3.43 FIP	24	SP-	3.43	23.4%	11.9%	1.5%	.316	4.34	22.5%	9.8%	109	+0.91	3.43	142	62
Brendan Beck R 2023 · 3.19 FIP	24	SP	3.19	22.5%	6.7%	2.1%	.289	3.50	21.3%	14.6%	262	+0.31	3.15	293	61
Shawn Dubin R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	27	SP-	4.93	19.3%	12.9%	3.3%	.292	3.97	21.8%	11.4%	79	-0.96	3.02	341	61
Jorge López R 2020 · 4.54 FIP	27	SP-	4.54	16.1%	6.3%	3.6%	.305	4.15	20.9%	12.1%	252	-0.39	2.90	955	61
Alfonso Sanchez R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.5%	9.1%	3.2%	.346	4.85	14.0%	5.3%	138	-0.11	4.51	224	61
Antonio Guzman R 2015 · 3.60 FIP	27	SP	3.60	18.8%	11.2%	1.2%	.328	3.47	20.6%	11.3%	170	-0.13	3.15	254	61
Jake Lee R 2022 · 3.27 FIP	27	SP-	3.27	16.8%	7.1%	1.3%	.338	5.91	15.6%	9.3%	93	+2.64	2.78	181	61
Sam Lewis R 2019 · 3.41 FIP	27	SP-	3.41	21.0%	10.8%	1.3%	.246	—	—	—	—	—	2.21	224	60
Markus Solbach R 2019 · 3.58 FIP	27	SP	3.58	16.9%	6.1%	2.1%	.311	4.62	17.1%	9.1%	111	+1.04	3.34	391	60
Kyle Lloyd R 2018 · 4.23 FIP	27	SP-	4.23	18.2%	9.8%	2.6%	.336	4.75	17.2%	9.3%	110	+0.52	3.50	572	60

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	68	18.3%	6.5%	1.20	4.42
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Austin Pruitt ('23)	1.5	61	16.9%	5.6%	1.22	4.45
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Eli Morgan ('24)	1.3	66	23.8%	6.4%	1.46	3.97