Robinson Piña

P Buffalo Bisons

Age 28 RHP 6'5" / 225 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.8 · 2027

Overview

AAARPROOKIEMiLBFA 2034

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	24	MIX3 levels	34	11	97	4.07	3.61	21.4%	13.1%	—	K 15.7% · BB 13.8% · FIP 4.36
2024	25	MIX2 levels	25	25	129	4.18	3.49	23.9%	4.9%	—	K 19.6% · BB 4.9% · FIP 3.97
2025	26	MIX2 levels	19	13	68	3.72	3.47	21.8%	6.9%	1.6	K 19.4% · BB 6.2% · FIP 3.81
2026	27	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	28	MLBTOR	2	2	15	4.31	4.31	19.8%	6.7%	0.2
2028PROJ37% MLB	29	MLBTOR	8	8	45	4.38	4.43	19.8%	7.0%	0.5
2029PROJ55% MLB	30	MLBTOR	10	10	59	4.50	4.59	19.6%	7.3%	0.6

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.6 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$0.8M2032Ext$0.4M2033Ext$7M

CompsPatrick Johnson (age 27) · Hector Velázquez (age 28) · Shawn Haviland (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115107vR 99

ERA4.31

FIP4.31

K%19.8%

BB%6.7%

K-BB%13.2%

Proj IP149

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 149 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$9M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$4M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2017	18	ROK MLE	DSL Angels	15	11	51	214	47	24	0	73%	3.4	14.9%	14.0%	0.9%	0.0%	3.68	3.61	—
2017	18	ROK RAW	DSL Angels	15	11	51	214	47	24	0	73%	3.4	22.0%	11.2%	10.7%	0.0%	3.68	2.67	—
2018	19	ROK MLE	Orem Owlz	19	1	44	191	61	19	1	5%	2.3	21.7%	12.4%	9.3%	0.7%	3.48	3.24	—
2018	19	ROK RAW	Orem Owlz	19	1	44	191	61	19	1	5%	2.3	31.9%	9.9%	22.0%	0.5%	3.48	1.92	—
2019	20	A MLE	Burlington Bees	26	21	108	475	146	61	5	81%	4.2	22.7%	15.2%	7.6%	1.4%	3.83	3.88	—
2019	20	A RAW	Burlington Bees	26	21	108	475	146	61	5	81%	4.2	30.7%	12.8%	17.9%	1.1%	3.83	2.69	—
2021	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	21	95	411	140	56	13	100%	4.5	26.2%	15.6%	10.6%	3.6%	4.44	4.83	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	21	21	95	411	140	56	13	100%	4.5	34.1%	13.6%	20.4%	3.2%	4.44	3.70	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	15	85	362	122	31	11	71%	4.1	26.9%	8.2%	18.7%	3.2%	4.43	3.63	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	15	85	362	122	31	11	71%	4.1	33.7%	8.6%	25.1%	3.0%	4.43	3.01	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	34	11	97	421	90	55	5	32%	2.9	15.7%	13.8%	1.9%	1.5%	4.07	4.36	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	34	11	97	421	90	55	5	32%	2.9	21.4%	13.1%	8.3%	1.2%	4.07	3.61	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	129	552	132	27	18	100%	5.2	19.6%	4.9%	14.7%	3.5%	4.18	3.97	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	129	552	132	27	18	100%	5.2	19.6%	4.9%	14.7%	3.5%	4.18	3.97	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	129	552	132	27	18	100%	5.2	23.9%	4.9%	19.0%	3.3%	4.18	3.49	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	13	68	289	63	20	7	68%	3.6	19.4%	6.2%	13.2%	2.8%	3.72	3.81	+1.3
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	13	68	289	63	20	7	68%	3.6	19.4%	6.2%	13.2%	2.8%	3.72	3.81	+1.3
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	13	68	289	63	20	7	68%	3.6	21.8%	6.9%	14.9%	2.4%	3.72	3.47	+1.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			2	0	2	14	1	1	1	0%	1.2	7.1%	7.1%	0.0%	7.1%	7.71	9.10	-0.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	TOR	2	2	15	63	13	4	2	100%	7.5	19.8%	6.7%	13.2%	3.0%	4.31	4.31	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	TOR	21	21	124	522	103	36	17	100%	5.9	19.8%	7.0%	12.8%	3.2%	4.38	4.43	+1.4
2029	30	MLB MLE	TOR	18	18	108	454	89	33	15	100%	6.0	19.6%	7.3%	12.3%	3.4%	4.50	4.59	+1.0
2030	31	MLB MLE	TOR	16	16	95	402	78	31	14	100%	6.0	19.3%	7.7%	11.6%	3.6%	4.66	4.78	+0.7
2031	32	MLB MLE	TOR	14	14	83	352	67	29	13	100%	6.0	18.9%	8.1%	10.8%	3.8%	4.85	4.99	+0.4
2032	33	MLB MLE	TOR	12	12	72	303	56	26	12	100%	6.0	18.4%	8.6%	9.9%	4.1%	5.08	5.24	+0.1
2028	29	MLB CTX	TOR	8	8	45	190	38	13	6	100%	5.6	19.8%	7.0%	12.8%	3.2%	4.38	4.43	+0.5
2029	30	MLB CTX	TOR	10	10	59	249	49	18	8	100%	5.9	19.6%	7.3%	12.3%	3.4%	4.50	4.59	+0.6
2030	31	MLB CTX	TOR	11	11	64	270	52	21	10	100%	5.8	19.3%	7.7%	11.6%	3.6%	4.66	4.78	+0.5
2031	32	MLB CTX	TOR	11	11	64	270	51	22	10	100%	5.8	18.9%	8.1%	10.8%	3.8%	4.85	4.99	+0.3
2032	33	MLB CTX	TOR	10	10	59	249	46	21	10	100%	5.9	18.4%	8.6%	9.9%	4.1%	5.08	5.24	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		51	49	294	1246	238	97	45	96%	5.8	19.1%	7.8%	11.3%	3.6%	4.73	4.48	+3.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	33	200	847	162	66	31	96%	5.8	19.1%	7.8%	11.3%	3.6%	4.73	4.48	+2.1
Career	—	MLE		180	118	678	2915	617	323	68	66%	3.8	21.2%	11.1%	10.1%	2.3%	4.05	4.00	+3.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		53	35	200	859	182	95	20	66%	3.8	21.2%	11.1%	10.1%	2.3%	4.05	4.00	+1.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAABuffalo Bisons · 65 IPFIP 3.27 → 3.81 (+0.54)K% 22.5% → 19.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.55%	—	×0.860	19.39%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.91%	—	×0.900	6.22%
HR / BF /BF	2.18%	÷0.847	×1.100	2.83%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 69).

Result: FIP 3.27 → 3.81, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAReading Fightin Phils · 100 IPFIP 3.17 → 3.71 (+0.55)K% 25.3% → 20.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.30%	—	×0.810	20.49%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.07%	—	×1.100	3.38%
HR / BF /BF	3.31%	÷1.137	×1.200	3.49%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 127).

Result: FIP 3.17 → 3.71, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 29 IPFIP 4.54 → 4.82 (+0.28)K% 19.4% → 16.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.38%	—	×0.860	16.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.85%	—	×0.900	9.77%
HR / BF /BF	3.10%	÷0.989	×1.100	3.45%

Result: FIP 4.54 → 4.82, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AARocket City Trash Pandas · 63 IPFIP 3.10 → 3.71 (+0.61)K% 22.7% → 18.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.66%	—	×0.810	18.35%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.72%	—	×1.100	12.89%
HR / BF /BF	0.78%	÷0.970	×1.200	0.97%

Result: FIP 3.10 → 3.71, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAASalt Lake Bees · 23 IPFIP 5.70 → 5.75 (+0.05)K% 11.7% → 10.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	11.67%	—	×0.860	10.03%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.50%	—	×0.900	15.75%
HR / BF /BF	2.50%	÷1.003	×1.100	2.74%

Result: FIP 5.70 → 5.75, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Tri-City Dust Devils · 11 IPFIP 0.85 → 1.79 (+0.95)K% 40.0% → 30.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	40.00%	—	×0.770	30.80%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.89%	—	×1.150	10.22%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.990	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 98).

Result: FIP 0.85 → 1.79, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Tri-City Dust Devils · 82 IPFIP 2.21 → 3.63 (+1.43)K% 34.9% → 26.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.93%	—	×0.770	26.89%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.16%	—	×1.150	8.24%
HR / BF /BF	2.09%	÷0.814	×1.250	3.21%

Result: FIP 2.21 → 3.63, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAASalt Lake Bees · 4 IPFIP 12.95 → 14.32 (+1.37)K% 18.5% → 16.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.52%	—	×0.880	16.30%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	25.93%	—	×1.050	27.22%
HR / BF /BF	14.81%	÷0.978	×1.100	16.67%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 96).

Result: FIP 12.95 → 14.32, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Robinson Piña (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.0%	—	4.58	19.6%	12.3%	326	+0.27	—	—	—
Patrick Johnson R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	27	SP-	3.82	17.3%	6.9%	2.4%	.286	4.14	15.7%	6.4%	120	+0.32	3.82	248	76
Hector Velázquez R 2017 · 3.65 FIP	28	SP-	3.65	18.0%	6.6%	2.2%	.251	4.28	16.7%	7.4%	158	+0.63	2.75	536	69
Shawn Haviland R 2015 · 3.95 FIP	29	SP-	3.95	14.6%	6.0%	2.4%	.303	4.67	16.1%	8.8%	169	+0.72	3.69	283	69
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	68
Raynel Espinal R 2019 · 3.90 FIP	27	SP-	3.90	22.4%	7.1%	3.2%	.313	4.01	22.3%	12.4%	224	+0.11	2.48	507	67
Braydon Tucker R 2024 · 3.25 FIP	25	SP-	3.25	18.3%	7.1%	1.5%	.291	4.70	15.3%	6.3%	208	+1.45	3.25	314	67
Omar Bencomo R 2017 · 4.50 FIP	28	SP-	4.50	18.9%	6.3%	4.0%	.333	4.48	14.9%	10.1%	186	-0.02	3.70	381	67
Cooper Criswell R 2024 · 3.60 FIP	28	SP-	3.60	17.4%	7.2%	1.9%	.295	3.90	18.6%	10.4%	124	+0.30	2.76	651	66
Hisashi Iwakuma R 2012 · 4.28 FIP	31	SP-	4.28	19.5%	7.7%	3.4%	.277	3.45	21.5%	17.8%	528	-0.83	3.19	884	66
Yariel Rodríguez R 2024 · 3.76 FIP	27	SP	3.76	24.9%	11.4%	2.4%	.275	3.72	24.1%	12.7%	89	-0.04	2.32	196	65
Travis Driskill R 2002 · 4.95 FIP	30	SP-	4.95	13.2%	8.0%	3.6%	.291	4.26	15.3%	12.0%	48	-0.69	4.26	181	65
Brad Peacock R 2016 · 3.97 FIP	28	SP-	3.97	20.9%	8.7%	2.8%	.302	3.45	29.4%	20.4%	289	-0.52	2.97	748	65
Mitch Atkins R 2016 · 3.65 FIP	30	SP-	3.65	21.4%	8.2%	2.4%	.341	4.77	14.3%	6.2%	78	+1.12	3.65	215	65
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2015 · 3.97 FIP	30	SP	3.97	17.4%	7.1%	2.6%	.315	4.94	15.9%	8.7%	305	+0.97	3.97	567	65
Drew VerHagen R 2019 · 4.11 FIP	28	SW	4.11	19.5%	7.3%	3.2%	.344	6.00	17.0%	4.7%	22	+1.89	2.80	487	64
Michael Brady R 2015 · 3.15 FIP	28	SP-	3.15	18.9%	2.5%	2.4%	.326	3.48	18.0%	14.6%	214	+0.33	3.02	333	64
Seth Simmons R 2016 · 4.27 FIP	28	SW	4.27	18.1%	8.1%	3.0%	.262	6.20	13.3%	2.4%	54	+1.93	3.07	251	64
Ryan Weber R 2019 · 4.12 FIP	28	SP-	4.12	16.3%	6.6%	2.8%	.317	4.35	18.4%	14.1%	186	+0.23	2.88	727	63
Landon Knack R 2024 · 4.22 FIP	27	SP	4.22	24.2%	8.1%	3.9%	.264	4.78	19.1%	9.5%	191	+0.56	3.64	556	63
Erik Hiljus R 2001 · 3.35 FIP	28	SP-	3.35	23.1%	6.9%	2.4%	.321	6.07	14.1%	4.4%	46	+2.72	3.35	112	63

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.2	106	19.4%	7.4%	1.33	4.58
Mark Leiter ('90-'01, 5 WAR*)	5.9	118	20.7%*	7.8%*	1.36*	4.61*
Chris Narveson ('16)	2.2	109	19.4%	8.6%	1.20	4.71
Alec Mills ('23)	1.3	86	19.3%	7.2%	1.50	5.00
Alfredo Simon ('16)	3.9	111	15.7%	8.0%	1.22	4.56
Jackie Brown ('70-'77, 1 WAR*)	4.5	128	19.7%*	8.9%*	1.21*	4.93*
Bob Sadowski ('63-'66, 2 WAR*)	2.2	110	17.7%*	8.0%*	1.20*	4.73*