Ryan Weber — OGILVIE

Ryan Weber P Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders

Age 35 RHP 6'1" / 175 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 4 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124115vR 107

ERA4.63

FIP4.76

K%17.5%

BB%8.5%

K-BB%9.1%

ROS IP4

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 4 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL6060

CMD3535

K†4040

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1088.2

Whiff%

p1018.0%

p1011.7%

xwOBA vs

p160.352

FB+3.3

SL-3.2

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	43	14	128	491	78	16	11	33%	3.0	14.1%	3.4%	10.7%	2.5%	2.88	3.72	+1.3
2015	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	43	14	128	491	78	16	11	33%	3.0	15.9%	3.3%	12.6%	2.2%	2.88	3.37	+1.8
2016	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	7	98	425	64	15	8	17%	2.3	13.9%	3.7%	10.2%	2.0%	3.75	3.49	+1.2
2016	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	42	7	98	425	64	15	8	17%	2.3	15.1%	3.5%	11.5%	1.9%	3.75	3.31	+1.5
2017	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	6	35	131	19	4	1	86%	5.0	14.3%	3.6%	10.7%	1.0%	1.02	2.88	+0.9
2017	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	6	35	131	19	4	1	86%	5.0	14.5%	3.1%	11.5%	0.8%	1.02	2.73	+1.0
2018	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	18	121	504	84	23	9	67%	4.5	15.2%	4.6%	10.6%	2.1%	2.83	3.57	+1.9
2018	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	18	121	504	84	23	9	67%	4.5	16.7%	4.6%	12.1%	1.8%	2.83	3.25	+2.4
2019	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	19	119	518	92	33	14	56%	3.5	16.3%	6.6%	9.7%	2.8%	4.70	4.12	+1.1
2019	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	19	119	518	92	33	14	56%	3.5	17.8%	6.4%	11.4%	2.7%	4.70	3.92	+1.4
2020	29	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	17	5	43	185	27	14	8	29%	2.5	14.6%	7.6%	7.0%	4.4%	4.40	5.26	-0.4
2020	29	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	17	5	43	185	27	14	8	29%	2.5	14.6%	7.6%	7.0%	4.3%	4.40	5.24	-0.3
2021	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	18	113	463	110	17	20	78%	4.9	21.5%	3.3%	18.2%	4.1%	4.86	3.93	+1.3
2021	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	18	113	463	110	17	20	78%	4.9	23.8%	3.7%	20.1%	4.3%	4.86	3.91	+1.3
2022	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	8	50	201	30	6	7	40%	2.5	14.5%	3.2%	11.3%	4.0%	3.22	4.48	+0.0
2022	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	8	50	201	30	6	7	40%	2.5	14.9%	3.0%	11.9%	3.5%	3.22	4.07	+0.3
2023	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	7	49	208	33	7	8	47%	3.2	13.7%	3.1%	10.7%	4.0%	4.99	4.54	+0.0
2023	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	7	49	208	33	7	8	47%	3.2	13.7%	3.1%	10.7%	4.0%	4.99	4.54	+0.0
2023	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	7	49	208	33	7	8	47%	3.2	15.9%	3.4%	12.5%	3.8%	4.99	4.31	+0.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			76	16	192	813	117	39	31	21%	2.5	14.4%	4.8%	9.6%	3.8%	4.88	4.59	-0.1
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	35	MLB	NYY	4	0	4	17	3	1	1	0%	1.0	17.5%	8.5%	9.1%	3.1%	4.63	4.76	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	36	MLB MLE	NYY	42	0	44	187	31	17	6	0%	1.1	16.5%	9.0%	7.4%	3.5%	4.93	5.13	-0.3
2027	36	MLB CTX	NYY	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	16.5%	9.0%	7.4%	3.5%	4.93	5.13	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		76	16	192	815	117	39	31	21%	2.5	14.4%	4.8%	9.6%	3.8%	4.88	4.59	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		79	17	200	847	122	41	32	21%	2.5	14.4%	4.8%	9.6%	3.8%	4.88	4.59	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		228	102	756	3126	492	136	91	45%	3.3	15.8%	4.4%	11.4%	2.9%	3.73	3.92	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		60	27	200	827	130	36	24	45%	3.3	15.8%	4.4%	11.4%	2.9%	3.73	3.92	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ryan Weber (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.76	17.5%	8.5%	3.1%	—	5.13	16.5%	7.4%	44	+0.37	—	—	—
Chris Young R 2015 · 4.69 FIP	36	SP-	4.69	16.6%	8.6%	3.5%	.209	6.33	21.1%	11.4%	119	+1.64	4.69	242	71
Alexi Ogando R 2018 · 4.10 FIP	34	SW	4.10	15.0%	6.4%	2.6%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	132	67
Jesse Estrada R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	35	SP-	4.34	14.4%	6.6%	2.9%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.80	257	66
Jerome Williams R 2016 · 5.81 FIP	34	SW	5.81	11.7%	6.1%	5.3%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	4.72	195	62
Ryan Vogelsong R 2015 · 4.45 FIP	38	SP-	4.45	18.1%	9.4%	3.1%	.295	4.79	16.7%	6.3%	82	+0.34	4.45	217	62
Jake Peavy R 2016 · 4.35 FIP	35	SP-	4.35	19.6%	6.7%	3.7%	.318	—	—	—	—	—	4.07	262	62
Yohan Pino R 2017 · 5.33 FIP	33	SP-	5.33	15.2%	3.6%	5.6%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	4.13	133	61
Ivan Maldonado R 2015 · 4.60 FIP	35	SW	4.60	12.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.269	5.41	6.4%	-3.3%	104	+0.81	4.60	172	61
Tiago Da Silva R 2019 · 3.95 FIP	34	SW	3.95	15.0%	7.2%	2.2%	.365	—	—	—	—	—	2.21	287	59
Kyle Lohse R 2015 · 4.77 FIP	36	SP-	4.77	16.2%	6.0%	4.2%	.309	4.97	14.8%	8.8%	59	+0.20	4.77	211	58
Jean Machi R 2017 · 4.12 FIP	35	SU	4.12	18.6%	6.6%	3.2%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	186	58
Angel Sánchez R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	33	SW	4.95	18.3%	10.5%	3.8%	.333	3.81	11.4%	6.4%	27	-1.14	3.80	284	56
Daniel Guerrero R 2019 · 5.59 FIP	34	SW	5.59	14.7%	11.1%	4.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	4.61	269	54
Mike Pelfrey R 2017 · 5.69 FIP	33	SP-	5.69	14.5%	10.6%	4.5%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	3.70	404	53
Brian Schlitter R 2021 · 4.70 FIP	35	SU	4.70	14.9%	9.1%	3.1%	.318	—	—	—	—	—	3.28	244	52
Francisco Del Rosario R 2017 · 4.15 FIP	36	SU	4.15	16.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.267	6.35	11.9%	-0.6%	77	+2.20	4.15	145	52
Chris Smith R 2016 · 3.85 FIP	35	SP-	3.85	20.8%	8.9%	2.5%	.279	5.08	15.6%	8.1%	130	+1.23	3.79	413	51
Alfredo Simon R 2016 · 5.55 FIP	35	SP-	5.55	12.3%	9.6%	4.1%	.335	—	—	—	—	—	4.61	261	50
Jesse Chavez R 2019 · 4.00 FIP	35	SW	4.00	21.4%	6.5%	3.4%	.303	3.25	25.5%	17.9%	140	-0.75	2.03	804	49
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2019 · 5.11 FIP	35	SW	5.11	25.0%	11.2%	4.9%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.34	212	49

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.5	47	17.0%	8.7%	1.26	4.77
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79