Juan Then
P
Birmingham Barons
+0.1
WAR
Age 26
RHP
6'1" / 200 lbs
AA
peak 0.1 · 2026
ERA4.48
FIP4.48
xFIP4.24
SIERA3.96
K%22.1%
BB%9.8%
K-BB%12.3%
IP23
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
K†5555
CH-2.5
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 17 | ROK | DSL Mariners | 13 | 13 | 61 | 245 | 56 | 14 | 3 | 15.5% | 7.1% | 1.7% | 2.64 | 3.63 | +0.9 |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | GCL Yankees East | 11 | 11 | 50 | 195 | 42 | 11 | 2 | 14.6% | 7.1% | 1.4% | 2.70 | 3.54 | +0.8 |
| 2019 | 19 | A | West Virginia Power | 4 | 3 | 18 | 68 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 17.0% | 7.7% | 2.1% | 2.00 | 3.80 | +0.2 |
| 2021 | 21 | A+ | Everett AquaSox | 14 | 14 | 54 | 250 | 59 | 19 | 12 | 18.2% | 8.7% | 5.6% | 6.46 | 5.74 | -0.5 |
| 2022 | 22 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | 12 | 2 | 12 | 54 | 16 | 5 | 2 | — | — | — | 4.50 | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 43 | 2 | 47 | 236 | 34 | 26 | 7 | 10.7% | 14.9% | 2.0% | 7.99 | 5.18 | -0.1 |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | 14 | 0 | 13 | 72 | 8 | 12 | 5 | — | — | — | 10.80 | — | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | CWS | 23 | — | 23 | 98 | 22 | 10 | 3 | 22.1% | 9.8% | 3.0% | 4.48 | 4.48 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | CWS | 23 | — | 23 | 97 | 22 | 10 | 3 | 22.2% | 9.8% | 3.0% | 4.47 | 4.47 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 111 | 45 | 256 | 1120 | 173 | 111 | 34 | 15.4% | 9.9% | 3.0% | 4.92 | 4.72 | +1.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 87 | 35 | 200 | 874 | 135 | 87 | 27 | 15.4% | 9.9% | 3.0% | 4.92 | 4.72 | +1.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Juan Then (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.48 | 22.1% | 9.8% | 3.0% | — | 4.47 | 22.2% | 12.5% | 23 | -0.01 | — | — | — |
| Manny Barreda R 2026 · 5.08 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.08 | 21.2% | 14.7% | 3.5% | .286 | 3.67 | 19.6% | 9.5% | 186 | -1.41 | 3.25 | 376 | 78 |
| Tyler Kinley R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.72 | 25.0% | 10.3% | 2.6% | .295 | 3.80 | 25.0% | 11.7% | 140 | +0.08 | 1.58 | 544 | 78 |
| Juan Minaya R 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.69 | 24.4% | 9.6% | 2.6% | .291 | 3.65 | 25.1% | 14.5% | 132 | -0.04 | 3.19 | 446 | 78 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2029 · 3.52 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.52 | 22.1% | 7.5% | 2.4% | .283 | 3.61 | 22.2% | 13.6% | 174 | +0.09 | 3.17 | 272 | 76 |
| Ryder Ryan R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.50 | 23.4% | 9.6% | 3.9% | .325 | 4.39 | 20.4% | 10.3% | 176 | -0.11 | 3.44 | 480 | 76 |
| Matt Festa R 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.68 | 21.9% | 11.2% | 3.6% | .246 | 4.05 | 29.9% | 23.0% | 75 | -0.63 | 2.56 | 414 | 76 |
| Jason Stoffel R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.60 | 23.4% | 10.1% | 2.2% | .267 | 3.51 | 27.2% | 19.2% | 59 | -0.09 | 3.51 | 103 | 76 |
| Tyler Bashlor R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.81 | 20.7% | 11.7% | 3.6% | .258 | 4.07 | 23.7% | 13.0% | 38 | -0.74 | 2.55 | 253 | 76 |
| Daniel Corcino R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.97 | 21.7% | 11.4% | 2.3% | .292 | 4.93 | 19.0% | 7.9% | 223 | +0.96 | 3.84 | 299 | 75 |
| Spencer Patton R 2027 · 3.49 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.49 | 26.8% | 9.6% | 2.6% | .295 | 2.83 | 30.3% | 18.1% | 57 | -0.66 | 2.83 | 239 | 75 |
| Bryan Shaw R 2027 · 3.91 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.91 | 20.4% | 6.8% | 3.0% | .276 | 3.53 | 23.3% | 15.0% | 198 | -0.38 | 2.86 | 596 | 75 |
| Kaleb Bowman R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.85 | 22.0% | 7.5% | 3.0% | .333 | 4.24 | 18.2% | 8.5% | 116 | +0.39 | 3.85 | 149 | 75 |
| Nick Wittgren R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.43 | 23.6% | 6.6% | 2.7% | .336 | 3.63 | 24.6% | 18.5% | 144 | +0.20 | 3.10 | 508 | 75 |
| Jonathan Pintaro R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.43 | 18.9% | 9.4% | 1.3% | .264 | 4.21 | 24.4% | 11.2% | 82 | +0.78 | 3.43 | 152 | 75 |
| Kyle Winkler R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.74 | 23.1% | 8.7% | 2.7% | .234 | 3.53 | 18.4% | 8.3% | 43 | -0.21 | 2.96 | 114 | 74 |
| Mitch Neunborn R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.70 | 24.5% | 9.5% | 2.7% | .232 | 5.13 | 18.0% | 7.0% | 180 | +1.43 | 3.70 | 223 | 74 |
| Nick Robertson R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.55 | 20.6% | 11.4% | 3.2% | .342 | 4.78 | 20.5% | 6.4% | 52 | +0.23 | 3.43 | 281 | 74 |
| Vinny Nittoli R 2025 · 4.66 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.66 | 20.8% | 9.7% | 3.8% | .286 | 4.20 | 19.0% | 12.1% | 61 | -0.46 | 3.68 | 331 | 74 |
| Jack Hartman R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.32 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 3.4% | .310 | 4.30 | 17.6% | 5.6% | 46 | -0.02 | 3.45 | 161 | 74 |
| Jake Lemoine R 2025 · 3.93 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.93 | 17.7% | 8.9% | 2.2% | .349 | 5.12 | 15.5% | 3.0% | 109 | +1.19 | 3.81 | 290 | 74 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.