Juan Then — OGILVIE

Juan Then P Birmingham Barons

Age 26 RHP 6'1" / 200 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 1 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.90

FIP4.90

K%18.0%

BB%10.4%

K-BB%7.5%

ROS IP1

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 1 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4045

CH-2.5

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	17	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	13	13	61	245	56	14	3	100%	4.7	15.5%	7.1%	8.4%	1.7%	2.64	3.63	—
2017	17	ROK RAW	DSL Mariners	13	13	61	245	56	14	3	100%	4.7	22.9%	5.7%	17.1%	1.2%	2.64	2.59	—
2018	18	ROK MLE	GCL Yankees East	11	11	50	195	42	11	2	100%	4.5	14.6%	7.1%	7.6%	1.4%	2.70	3.54	—
2018	18	ROK RAW	GCL Yankees East	11	11	50	195	42	11	2	100%	4.5	21.5%	5.6%	15.9%	1.0%	2.70	2.60	—
2019	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	4	3	18	68	16	4	1	75%	4.5	17.0%	7.7%	9.2%	2.1%	2.00	3.80	—
2019	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	4	3	18	68	16	4	1	75%	4.5	23.5%	5.9%	17.6%	1.5%	2.00	2.71	—
2021	21	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	14	14	54	250	59	19	12	100%	3.9	18.2%	8.7%	9.4%	5.6%	6.46	5.73	—
2021	21	A+ RAW	Everett AquaSox	14	14	54	250	59	19	12	100%	3.9	23.6%	7.6%	16.0%	4.8%	6.46	4.85	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	2	12	54	16	5	2	17%	1.0	29.6%	9.3%	20.4%	3.7%	4.50	3.80	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	2	12	54	16	5	2	17%	1.0	29.6%	9.3%	20.4%	3.7%	4.50	3.85	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	43	2	47	236	34	26	7	5%	1.1	10.1%	12.8%	-2.7%	1.9%	7.99	4.92	-0.2
2023	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	43	2	47	236	34	26	7	5%	1.1	10.1%	12.8%	-2.7%	1.9%	7.99	4.92	-0.2
2023	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	43	2	47	236	34	26	7	5%	1.1	14.4%	11.0%	3.4%	3.0%	7.99	5.23	-0.4
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	0	13	72	8	12	5	0%	1.0	11.1%	16.7%	-5.6%	6.9%	10.80	8.08	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	0	13	72	8	12	5	0%	1.0	11.1%	16.7%	-5.6%	6.9%	10.80	8.08	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	0	13	72	8	12	5	0%	1.0	11.1%	16.7%	-5.6%	6.9%	10.80	9.47	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			9	0	11	48	5	2	3	0%	1.2	10.4%	4.2%	6.2%	6.2%	4.91	6.28	-0.2
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	26	MLB	CWS	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0%	1.0	18.0%	10.4%	7.5%	2.9%	4.90	4.90	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	CWS	19	0	20	84	16	9	3	0%	1.1	18.5%	10.4%	8.1%	3.0%	4.87	4.88	-0.1
2027	27	MLB CTX	CWS	8	0	8	34	6	4	1	0%	1.0	18.5%	10.4%	8.1%	3.0%	4.87	4.88	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		16	0	19	80	11	5	4	0%	1.2	13.6%	6.6%	7.0%	5.0%	4.89	5.51	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		175	0	200	861	119	54	43	0%	1.1	13.6%	6.6%	7.0%	5.0%	4.89	5.51	-2.2
Career	—	MLE		111	45	256	1120	171	105	34	41%	2.3	15.3%	9.4%	5.9%	3.0%	4.92	4.66	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		87	35	200	874	134	82	26	41%	2.3	15.3%	9.4%	5.9%	3.0%	4.92	4.66	-1.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Juan Then (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.90	18.0%	10.4%	2.9%	—	4.88	18.5%	8.1%	20	-0.02	—	—	—
Zac Kristofak R 2023 · 4.10 FIP	25	SW	4.10	15.5%	8.9%	2.1%	.252	4.70	10.8%	5.0%	19	+0.60	4.10	168	71
Trevor Cahill R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	27	SW	4.13	16.4%	9.4%	2.2%	.297	4.12	22.9%	12.0%	293	-0.01	3.37	556	69
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	69
Tristan Stevens R 2023 · 4.14 FIP	25	SW	4.14	17.3%	8.2%	2.7%	.411	3.68	15.0%	7.7%	91	-0.46	3.68	126	68
Alfonso Sanchez R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.5%	9.1%	3.2%	.346	4.85	14.0%	5.3%	138	-0.11	4.51	224	68
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.37	14.7%	3.6%	156	+0.91	4.46	215	67
Billy Corcoran R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SW	4.20	19.5%	10.0%	2.7%	.308	5.16	16.5%	8.7%	206	+0.96	4.20	275	67
Taylor Grover R 2017 · 4.93 FIP	26	SW	4.93	20.0%	10.9%	3.9%	.320	4.89	16.2%	8.9%	14	-0.04	3.68	239	66
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	66
Chris Vallimont R 2023 · 5.04 FIP	26	SW	5.04	18.8%	10.9%	3.9%	.286	5.40	16.3%	6.6%	113	+0.36	3.23	522	66
Logan Taylor R 2018 · 4.79 FIP	26	SU	4.79	17.2%	12.1%	2.9%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	300	66
Paul Clemens R 2015 · 5.37 FIP	27	SP-	5.37	14.3%	14.1%	3.1%	.310	4.62	16.9%	7.3%	200	-0.75	4.58	247	66
Phil Klein R 2015 · 3.86 FIP	26	SW	3.86	18.1%	11.0%	1.6%	.280	3.10	24.5%	17.9%	97	-0.76	3.10	178	65
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	65
Hunter Gregory R 2023 · 4.06 FIP	24	SW	4.06	20.0%	12.1%	2.0%	.322	5.11	20.1%	8.3%	161	+1.05	3.84	249	65
Noah Bremer R 2021 · 4.39 FIP	25	SW	4.39	18.0%	9.4%	2.9%	.292	5.82	13.1%	1.2%	46	+1.43	3.19	271	65
Jimmy Kingsbury R 2023 · 5.11 FIP	24	SW	5.11	18.2%	9.9%	4.2%	.304	3.67	18.0%	9.9%	189	-1.44	3.51	330	65
Layne Somsen R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	26	SU	3.74	19.5%	12.5%	1.3%	.265	4.00	19.9%	6.7%	92	+0.26	3.66	154	65
Brad Allen R 2015 · 4.25 FIP	26	SW	4.25	14.0%	12.6%	1.3%	.315	5.82	14.7%	1.5%	87	+1.57	4.25	149	65
Jarret Whorff R 2023 · 4.24 FIP	24	SW	4.24	19.5%	14.2%	1.8%	.287	4.36	19.2%	10.6%	193	+0.12	3.92	257	65