Juan Then
P
Birmingham Barons
Age 26
RHP
6'1" / 200 lbs
AA
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 16 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120111vR 102
ERA4.47
FIP4.47
K%22.1%
BB%9.8%
K-BB%12.3%
ROS IP16
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 16 IP
Grades · Arsenal · Contract
CH-2.5
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 17 | ROK | DSL Mariners | 13 | 13 | 61 | 245 | 56 | 14 | 3 | 100% | 4.7 | 15.5% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 1.7% | 2.64 | 3.63 | — |
| 2017 | 17 | ROK | DSL Mariners | 13 | 13 | 61 | 245 | 56 | 14 | 3 | 100% | 4.7 | 22.9% | 5.7% | 17.1% | 1.2% | 2.64 | 2.59 | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | GCL Yankees East | 11 | 11 | 50 | 195 | 42 | 11 | 2 | 100% | 4.5 | 14.6% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 1.4% | 2.70 | 3.54 | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | GCL Yankees East | 11 | 11 | 50 | 195 | 42 | 11 | 2 | 100% | 4.5 | 21.5% | 5.6% | 15.9% | 1.0% | 2.70 | 2.60 | — |
| 2019 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 4 | 3 | 18 | 68 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 75% | 4.5 | 17.0% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 2.1% | 2.00 | 3.78 | — |
| 2019 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 4 | 3 | 18 | 68 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 75% | 4.5 | 23.5% | 5.9% | 17.6% | 1.5% | 2.00 | 2.71 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A+ | Everett AquaSox | 14 | 14 | 54 | 250 | 59 | 19 | 12 | 100% | 3.9 | 18.2% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 5.2% | 6.46 | 5.52 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A+ | Everett AquaSox | 14 | 14 | 54 | 250 | 59 | 19 | 12 | 100% | 3.9 | 23.6% | 7.6% | 16.0% | 4.8% | 6.46 | 4.85 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 2 | 12 | 54 | 16 | 5 | 2 | 17% | 1.0 | 29.6% | 9.3% | 20.4% | 3.7% | 4.50 | 3.80 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 2 | 12 | 54 | 16 | 5 | 2 | 17% | 1.0 | 29.6% | 9.3% | 20.4% | 3.7% | 4.50 | 3.85 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 43 | 2 | 47 | 236 | 34 | 26 | 7 | 5% | 1.1 | 10.7% | 14.9% | -4.2% | 1.7% | 7.99 | 5.01 | -0.3 |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 43 | 2 | 47 | 236 | 34 | 26 | 7 | 5% | 1.1 | 14.4% | 11.0% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 7.99 | 5.23 | -0.4 |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 0 | 13 | 72 | 8 | 12 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 11.1% | 16.7% | -5.6% | 6.9% | 10.80 | 8.08 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 0 | 13 | 72 | 8 | 12 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 11.1% | 16.7% | -5.6% | 6.9% | 10.80 | 9.47 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | CWS | 16 | 0 | 16 | 69 | 15 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.1% | 9.8% | 12.3% | 2.9% | 4.47 | 4.47 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | CWS | 19 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 19 | 8 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.2% | 9.8% | 12.4% | 3.0% | 4.48 | 4.50 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | CWS | 8 | 0 | 8 | 34 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.2% | 9.8% | 12.4% | 3.0% | 4.48 | 4.50 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 16 | 0 | 19 | 80 | 12 | 5 | 4 | 0% | 1.2 | 15.1% | 6.4% | 8.7% | 5.0% | 4.73 | 5.36 | -0.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 175 | 0 | 200 | 861 | 130 | 54 | 43 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.1% | 6.4% | 8.7% | 5.0% | 4.73 | 5.36 | +0.1 | ||
| Career | — | 111 | 45 | 256 | 1120 | 173 | 111 | 32 | 41% | 2.3 | 15.4% | 9.9% | 5.6% | 2.9% | 4.92 | 4.63 | +2.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 87 | 35 | 200 | 874 | 135 | 86 | 25 | 41% | 2.3 | 15.4% | 9.9% | 5.6% | 2.9% | 4.92 | 4.63 | +1.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Juan Then (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.47 | 22.1% | 9.8% | 2.9% | — | 4.50 | 22.2% | 12.4% | 20 | +0.03 | — | — | — |
| Mitch Neunborn R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.92 | 24.5% | 9.5% | 3.1% | .232 | 5.11 | 17.5% | 6.2% | 190 | +1.19 | 3.92 | 233 | 70 |
| Dakota Hawkins R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.90 | 16.7% | 6.8% | 2.5% | .243 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 167 | 69 |
| Jose Samayoa R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.56 | 16.6% | 9.9% | 1.1% | .286 | 4.12 | 17.3% | 9.4% | 226 | +0.56 | 3.56 | 262 | 68 |
| Dom Hamel R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.04 | 22.1% | 7.8% | 3.3% | .296 | 5.62 | 15.4% | 3.2% | 79 | +1.58 | 3.65 | 514 | 67 |
| Shawn Dubin R 2026 · 3.29 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.29 | 28.3% | 13.5% | 1.6% | .366 | 4.50 | 21.3% | 8.9% | 135 | +1.21 | 3.04 | 341 | 66 |
| Taylor Grover R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.89 | 20.0% | 10.9% | 3.8% | .320 | 4.92 | 16.2% | 8.9% | 14 | +0.03 | 3.63 | 239 | 66 |
| Keegan Thompson R 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.27 | 23.3% | 11.9% | 3.0% | .243 | 4.31 | 24.3% | 12.7% | 231 | +0.04 | 3.29 | 558 | 66 |
| Dawson Netz R 2025 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.42 | 23.3% | 10.7% | 3.5% | .225 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 102 | 65 |
| Trevor Cahill R 2027 · 4.15 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.15 | 16.4% | 9.4% | 2.3% | .297 | 4.10 | 22.9% | 12.0% | 293 | -0.05 | 3.33 | 556 | 65 |
| Daniel Corcino R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.75 | 21.7% | 11.4% | 1.9% | .292 | 4.81 | 19.0% | 7.9% | 223 | +1.06 | 3.75 | 299 | 65 |
| Edwin Quirarte R 2028 · 3.59 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.59 | 16.7% | 6.2% | 2.0% | .311 | 3.45 | 12.7% | 4.9% | 83 | -0.14 | 3.21 | 157 | 65 |
| Nick Hull R 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.93 | 19.3% | 8.2% | 2.6% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.93 | 268 | 65 |
| Michael King R 2026 · 3.37 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.37 | 22.5% | 8.4% | 2.0% | .277 | 2.86 | 29.1% | 21.3% | 329 | -0.51 | 1.96 | 948 | 64 |
| Chris Kachmar R 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.65 | 20.5% | 7.8% | 4.2% | .319 | 4.96 | 18.4% | 6.6% | 242 | +0.31 | 4.39 | 353 | 64 |
| Derek Gordon R 2025 · 4.72 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.72 | 19.9% | 9.3% | 3.9% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.72 | 146 | 64 |
| Ben Sears R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.60 | 17.2% | 9.0% | 3.3% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.30 | 240 | 64 |
| Zak Kent R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.23 | 22.0% | 16.3% | 1.7% | .358 | 3.96 | 21.6% | 9.7% | 97 | -0.27 | 3.23 | 354 | 64 |
| Esmil Rogers R 2029 · 3.51 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.51 | 18.5% | 8.9% | 1.6% | .348 | 2.88 | 21.7% | 17.9% | 40 | -0.63 | 2.88 | 199 | 64 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2028 · 4.14 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.14 | 20.2% | 7.4% | 3.3% | .348 | 3.66 | 23.4% | 13.2% | 86 | -0.48 | 2.38 | 160 | 64 |
| Grant Black R 2027 · 4.49 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.49 | 19.0% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .327 | 5.46 | 15.2% | 3.1% | 156 | +0.97 | 4.49 | 215 | 63 |