Grades · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 23 | 128 | 503 | 150 | 41 | 7 | 100% | 5.6 | 22.5% | 9.5% | 13.0% | 1.3% | 3.24 | 3.13 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 23 | 128 | 503 | 150 | 41 | 7 | 100% | 5.6 | 29.8% | 8.2% | 21.7% | 1.4% | 3.24 | 2.43 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 22 | 94 | 429 | 136 | 61 | 15 | 100% | 4.3 | 25.2% | 16.1% | 9.1% | 3.6% | 5.84 | 4.96 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 22 | 94 | 429 | 136 | 61 | 15 | 100% | 4.3 | 31.7% | 14.2% | 17.5% | 3.5% | 5.84 | 4.23 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 21 | 104 | 473 | 105 | 49 | 13 | 81% | 4.0 | 19.0% | 11.2% | 7.8% | 3.1% | 5.62 | 4.61 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 21 | 104 | 473 | 105 | 49 | 13 | 81% | 4.0 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 11.8% | 2.7% | 5.62 | 4.12 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 9 | 87 | 382 | 87 | 46 | 14 | 29% | 2.8 | 19.9% | 12.7% | 7.2% | 3.8% | 5.48 | 5.10 | +0.0 |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 9 | 87 | 382 | 87 | 46 | 14 | 29% | 2.8 | 22.8% | 12.0% | 10.7% | 3.7% | 5.48 | 4.78 | +0.4 |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA | Oklahoma City Baseball Club | 10 | 9 | 42 | 200 | 33 | 27 | 11 | 90% | 4.2 | 14.5% | 14.2% | 0.3% | 7.6% | 8.57 | 7.86 | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA | Oklahoma City Baseball Club | 10 | 9 | 42 | 200 | 33 | 27 | 11 | 90% | 4.2 | 16.5% | 13.5% | 3.0% | 5.5% | 8.57 | 6.86 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | 6 | 6 | 21 | 99 | 15 | 9 | 1 | 100% | 3.5 | 12.3% | 10.0% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 5.57 | 4.00 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | MIN | 5 | 5 | 31 | 131 | 27 | 15 | 5 | 100% | 6.2 | 20.5% | 11.2% | 9.3% | 3.8% | 5.24 | 5.24 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | MIN | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 20.5% | 11.2% | 9.3% | 3.8% | 5.24 | 5.24 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 29 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 52 | 230 | 42 | 24 | 6 | — | — | 18.2% | 10.3% | 7.9% | 2.6% | 5.37 | 4.74 | -0.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 29 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 20.5% | 11.2% | 9.3% | 3.8% | 5.24 | 4.86 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | MIN | 5 | 5 | 29 | 123 | 25 | 14 | 5 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.4% | 11.3% | 9.1% | 3.9% | 5.25 | 5.32 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | MIN | 2 | 2 | 9 | 38 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 4.5 | 20.4% | 11.3% | 9.1% | 3.9% | 5.25 | 5.32 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 3 | 2 | 10 | 43 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 67% | 3.5 | 21.8% | 10.8% | 11.0% | 3.7% | 4.91 | 4.66 | -0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 51 | 32 | 200 | 829 | 173 | 96 | 38 | 63% | 3.9 | 21.8% | 10.8% | 11.0% | 3.7% | 4.91 | 4.66 | +1.7 | ||
| Career | — | 118 | 90 | 476 | 2086 | 428 | 256 | 67 | 76% | 4.0 | 20.5% | 12.3% | 8.2% | 3.2% | 5.26 | 4.70 | +3.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 50 | 38 | 200 | 877 | 180 | 108 | 28 | 76% | 4.0 | 20.5% | 12.3% | 8.2% | 3.2% | 5.26 | 4.70 | +1.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Chris Vallimont (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.24 | 20.5% | 11.2% | 3.8% | — | 5.32 | 20.4% | 9.1% | 29 | +0.08 | — | — | — |
| Trevor Cahill R 2026 · 5.10 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.10 | 22.8% | 11.5% | 4.5% | .321 | 4.41 | 21.3% | 11.7% | 251 | -0.69 | 3.33 | 556 | 74 |
| Zack Segovia R 2029 · 5.00 FIP | 32 | SP | 5.00 | 15.0% | 8.3% | 3.8% | .314 | 3.41 | 20.2% | 14.3% | 39 | -1.59 | 3.41 | 144 | 72 |
| Reinier Roibal R 2027 · 4.86 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.86 | 17.5% | 11.8% | 3.2% | .426 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.07 | 133 | 70 |
| Hector Noesí R 2025 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 66 |
| Connor Schultz R 2024 · 4.85 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.85 | 21.5% | 10.9% | 4.0% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 171 | 66 |
| Matt Cain R 2027 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.90 | 17.1% | 6.8% | 4.3% | .296 | 4.88 | 15.2% | 7.6% | 214 | -0.02 | 4.83 | 294 | 66 |
| Kris Medlen R 2026 · 4.77 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.77 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 4.0% | .261 | 5.16 | 17.1% | 8.6% | 173 | +0.39 | 4.66 | 261 | 64 |
| Mat Latos R 2026 · 5.79 FIP | 29 | SP | 5.79 | 16.8% | 11.2% | 4.9% | .309 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | 244 | 64 |
| David Griffin R 2024 · 6.04 FIP | 27 | SP- | 6.04 | 14.5% | 10.3% | 5.2% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.52 | 239 | 63 |
| Hiram Burgos R 2026 · 5.14 FIP | 29 | SP | 5.14 | 19.3% | 7.5% | 4.9% | .351 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 355 | 63 |
| Davis Daniel R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.63 | 19.4% | 9.3% | 3.6% | .298 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 584 | 62 |
| Daulton Jefferies R 2025 · 5.23 FIP | 28 | SP- | 5.23 | 15.3% | 8.0% | 4.4% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.29 | 265 | 60 |
| Chris Heston R 2026 · 6.01 FIP | 29 | SP- | 6.01 | 13.6% | 10.0% | 5.1% | .368 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.82 | 321 | 60 |
| James Kaprielian R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.59 | 20.4% | 10.7% | 3.4% | .310 | 7.05 | 14.5% | -0.3% | 49 | +2.46 | 3.03 | 446 | 60 |
| Justin Masterson R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.06 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 2.1% | .307 | 3.76 | 17.3% | 6.4% | 196 | -0.30 | 3.51 | 269 | 60 |
| Andrew Triggs R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.57 | 23.6% | 9.9% | 4.0% | .263 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.66 | 242 | 60 |
| Derek Eitel R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.76 | 17.2% | 16.0% | 2.0% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 138 | 60 |
| Randall Delgado R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.66 | 17.3% | 7.5% | 3.8% | .342 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.05 | 290 | 59 |
| Kenny Serwa R 2025 · 4.75 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.75 | 14.9% | 12.6% | 2.4% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.65 | 182 | 59 |
| Miguel Ruiz R 2026 · 6.00 FIP | 29 | SP- | 6.00 | 8.8% | 8.0% | 4.8% | .346 | 5.44 | 10.6% | -0.4% | 53 | -0.56 | 5.44 | 117 | 59 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 30 | 20.4% | 11.2% | 1.48 | 5.24 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |