Luis Patiño

P San Antonio Missions

Age 27 RHP 6'1" / 192 lbs AA peak 0.7 · 2027

Overview

AARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	22	MIX3 levels	17	17	57	5.68	5.36	19.9%	9.8%	-0.3	K 16.8% · BB 10.6% · FIP 5.85
2023	23	MIX2 levels	41	12	81	5.98	6.05	17.9%	14.7%	-1.4	K 16.1% · BB 13.6% · FIP 5.69
2025	25	MIX2 levels	9	9	27	2.63	3.50	23.3%	11.2%	—	K 19.7% · BB 11.3% · FIP 3.75
2027PROJ	27	MLBSD	10	10	60	4.47	4.49	23.2%	10.3%	0.3
2028PROJ38% MLB	28	MLBSD	4	4	22	4.53	4.57	23.1%	10.4%	0.1
2029PROJ56% MLB	29	MLBSD	5	5	31	4.65	4.73	22.5%	10.6%	0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR -1.7 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2023

FB Velo57

Whiff%24

K%23

xwOBA vs10

CompsRicky Castro (age 24) · Erik Hiljus (age 28) · Raynel Espinal (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.47

FIP4.49

K%23.2%

BB%10.3%

K-BB%12.9%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL4040

CMD4040

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5795.0

Whiff%

p2421.6%

p2318.2%

xwOBA vs

p100.361

CH+1.0

SL-0.9

FB-2.2

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2017	17	ROK MLE	AZL Padres	13	12	56	228	58	18	2	92%	4.3	17.3%	9.9%	7.4%	1.2%	2.25	3.56	—
2017	17	ROK RAW	AZL Padres	13	12	56	228	58	18	2	92%	4.3	25.4%	7.9%	17.5%	0.9%	2.25	2.46	—
2018	18	A MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	17	17	83	330	98	24	1	100%	4.9	22.0%	8.6%	13.4%	0.3%	2.16	2.52	—
2018	18	A RAW	Fort Wayne TinCaps	17	17	83	330	98	24	1	100%	4.9	29.7%	7.3%	22.4%	0.3%	2.16	1.77	—
2019	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	19	95	392	123	38	4	95%	4.7	24.4%	11.0%	13.4%	1.6%	2.57	3.28	—
2019	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	19	95	392	123	38	4	95%	4.7	31.4%	9.7%	21.7%	1.0%	2.57	2.25	—
2020	20	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	11	1	17	85	21	14	3	9%	1.6	24.7%	16.5%	8.2%	3.4%	5.19	4.99	-0.1
2020	20	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	11	1	17	85	21	14	3	9%	1.6	24.7%	16.5%	8.2%	3.5%	5.19	5.35	-0.2
2021	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	22	107	455	115	38	14	85%	4.1	24.2%	8.5%	15.7%	3.2%	3.97	3.87	+1.3
2021	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	22	107	455	115	38	14	85%	4.1	25.3%	8.4%	16.9%	3.1%	3.97	3.72	+1.5
2022	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	17	17	57	256	51	25	12	100%	3.4	16.8%	10.6%	6.3%	5.2%	5.68	5.85	-0.6
2022	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	17	17	57	256	51	25	12	100%	3.4	19.9%	9.8%	10.2%	4.7%	5.68	5.36	-0.3
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	12	81	380	68	56	16	29%	2.0	16.1%	13.6%	2.4%	4.0%	5.98	5.69	-1.1
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	12	81	380	68	56	16	29%	2.0	17.9%	14.7%	3.2%	4.2%	5.98	6.05	-1.4
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	9	27	116	27	13	2	100%	3.0	19.7%	11.3%	8.4%	1.6%	2.63	3.75	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	9	27	116	27	13	2	100%	3.0	19.7%	11.3%	8.4%	1.6%	2.63	3.75	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	9	9	27	116	27	13	2	100%	3.0	23.3%	11.2%	12.1%	1.7%	2.63	3.50	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			45	23	136	615	124	67	24	51%	3.0	20.2%	10.9%	9.3%	3.9%	5.02	5.04	-0.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	SD	10	10	60	253	59	26	8	100%	6.0	23.2%	10.3%	12.9%	3.0%	4.47	4.49	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	SD	10	10	58	244	56	25	8	100%	5.8	23.1%	10.4%	12.7%	3.1%	4.53	4.57	+0.2
2029	29	MLB MLE	SD	9	9	55	233	52	25	8	100%	6.1	22.5%	10.6%	11.8%	3.3%	4.65	4.73	+0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	SD	4	4	22	93	21	10	3	100%	5.5	23.1%	10.4%	12.7%	3.1%	4.53	4.57	+0.1
2029	29	MLB CTX	SD	5	5	31	131	29	14	4	100%	6.2	22.5%	10.6%	11.8%	3.3%	4.65	4.73	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		54	32	189	836	174	90	31	59%	3.5	20.8%	10.8%	10.0%	3.7%	4.90	4.75	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		57	34	200	886	184	95	33	59%	3.5	20.8%	10.8%	10.0%	3.7%	4.90	4.75	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		154	109	524	2242	466	238	58	71%	3.4	20.8%	10.6%	10.1%	2.6%	3.71	4.11	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		59	42	200	856	178	91	22	71%	3.4	20.8%	10.6%	10.1%	2.6%	3.71	4.11	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Patiño (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.49	23.2%	10.3%	3.0%	—	4.65	22.8%	12.2%	113	+0.16	—	—	—
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	80
Erik Hiljus R 2001 · 3.35 FIP	28	SP-	3.35	23.1%	6.9%	2.4%	.321	6.07	14.1%	4.4%	46	+2.72	3.35	112	79
Raynel Espinal R 2019 · 3.90 FIP	27	SP-	3.90	22.4%	7.1%	3.2%	.313	4.01	22.3%	12.4%	224	+0.11	2.48	507	76
Shawn Dubin R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	27	SP-	4.87	20.0%	12.9%	3.3%	.292	3.97	21.8%	11.4%	79	-0.90	3.02	341	74
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	73
Sam Lewis R 2019 · 3.41 FIP	27	SP-	3.41	21.0%	10.8%	1.3%	.246	—	—	—	—	—	2.21	224	73
Yariel Rodríguez R 2024 · 3.76 FIP	27	SP	3.76	24.9%	11.4%	2.4%	.275	3.72	24.1%	12.7%	89	-0.04	2.32	196	73
Austin Bergner R 2024 · 4.84 FIP	27	SP	4.84	22.2%	12.5%	3.7%	.325	4.42	18.7%	7.3%	107	-0.42	4.06	464	72
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	72
Nick Payero R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	24	SP-	4.21	16.5%	6.3%	3.1%	.285	5.81	16.6%	4.6%	107	+1.60	4.21	178	71
Jonathan Pintaro R 2024 · 3.42 FIP	26	SP	3.42	18.9%	9.4%	1.3%	.264	4.07	23.9%	12.1%	153	+0.65	3.42	223	70
Antonio Guzman R 2015 · 3.60 FIP	27	SP	3.60	18.8%	11.2%	1.2%	.328	3.47	20.6%	11.3%	170	-0.13	3.15	254	70
J.P. France R 2022 · 4.44 FIP	27	SW	4.44	24.9%	10.9%	3.8%	.301	4.47	18.6%	9.0%	205	+0.03	4.04	577	69
Aaron Northcraft R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	26	SW	4.19	16.1%	8.3%	2.5%	.309	3.32	24.1%	13.4%	34	-0.87	3.32	252	69
Zach Stewart R 2015 · 4.43 FIP	28	SP-	4.43	14.4%	8.3%	2.7%	.322	5.17	11.7%	2.1%	51	+0.74	4.27	194	69
Ben Casparius R 2024 · 3.60 FIP	25	SP	3.60	23.7%	11.5%	1.9%	.268	3.66	20.6%	12.2%	88	+0.06	3.36	374	69
Clay Condrey R 2003 · 5.41 FIP	27	SP-	5.41	14.9%	10.1%	4.2%	.303	4.07	13.1%	7.4%	29	-1.34	3.18	250	68
Kyle Lloyd R 2018 · 4.23 FIP	27	SP-	4.23	18.2%	9.8%	2.6%	.336	4.75	17.2%	9.3%	110	+0.52	3.50	572	68
Andrew Bash R 2024 · 3.46 FIP	27	SP-	3.46	18.8%	9.5%	1.4%	.247	4.31	16.6%	7.0%	152	+0.85	3.46	483	68
Patrick Johnson R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	27	SP-	3.82	17.3%	6.9%	2.4%	.286	4.14	15.7%	6.4%	120	+0.32	3.82	248	68

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.5	51	21.7%	10.9%	1.35	4.76
Will Cunnane ('04)	1.4	46	18.9%	10.4%	1.25	5.26
Drew VerHagen ('23)	1.4	47	19.1%	9.4%	1.37	4.98
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Jeff Jones ('80-'84, -2 WAR*)	1.0	41	22.0%*	12.4%*	1.48*	4.53*
Phil Hennigan ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.4	70	20.9%*	10.4%*	1.50*	4.95*
Bill Pleis ('61-'66, -0 WAR*)	1.4	56	19.7%*	9.8%*	1.15*	4.53*