Matt Mervis

1B Reno Aces

Age 29 L/R 6'2" / 225 lbs AAA HR -11% Svc 4.000 · Ctrl thru 2028

Overview

AAAArb-2FA 2029

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR
2023	25	MLBCHC	99	.167/.242/.289	3	0	52	-1.5
2024	26	MLBCHC	28	.115/.143/.154	0	0	-23	-1.0
2025	27	MLBMIA	134	.175/.256/.383	7	0	81	-0.9
2027PROJ10% MLB	29	MLBARI	35	.216/.282/.418	1	0	91	-0.0
2028PROJ27% MLB	30	MLBARI	104	.212/.277/.410	4	1	88	-0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR -3.5 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2028Service4.000First FA2029

2027Arb-2$0.4M2028Arb-3$0.7M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2023-2025

Bat Spd72

Barrel%63

Avg EV51

Chase%37

xwOBA10

Whiff%10

CompsDaniel Palka (age 29) · Edwin Rios (age 28) · Ryan O'Hearn (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†91

AVG/OBP/SLG.216 / .282 / .418

PA35

HR1

K%29

BB%9

BABIP265

ISO156

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$1M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 60

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2023-2025

CONTACT45

Whiff%

1017.5%

xAVG

100.174

POWER60

Barrel%

6310.2

Avg EV

5189.2

Bat Spd

7273.6

EYE40

Chase%

3734.2%

SPEED50

Sprint

1025.2

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2023

Service 4.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-2	$0.4M	—	—	—
2028	Arb-3	$0.7M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.7M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	23	AAA	Iowa Cubs	—	15	14	4	1	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	286	333	357	690	71	400	27	7	313	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	A	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	289	245	50	11	1	9	36	66	3	6	0	204	312	367	680	163	236	23	12	305	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AAA	Iowa Cubs	—	240	209	62	15	1	15	25	35	5	0	0	297	385	593	978	297	294	15	10	422	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AA	Tennessee Smokies	—	230	203	61	16	1	14	20	46	4	2	0	300	374	596	971	296	322	20	9	415	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	A+	South Bend Cubs	—	108	100	35	9	0	7	5	26	2	0	0	350	393	650	1.043	300	412	24	5	447	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	INTL	Mesa Solar Sox	—	68	61	16	2	0	6	5	8	1	2	0	262	328	590	919	328	208	12	7	390	150	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	99	90	15	2	0	3	8	32	1	0	0	167	242	289	531	122	218	32	8	244	52	-6	+0	-2	-10	+2	-1.5
2023	25	AAA	Iowa Cubs	—	441	362	102	23	1	22	67	100	7	2	1	282	404	533	937	251	327	23	15	407	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	28	26	3	1	0	0	1	8	0	0	0	115	143	154	297	38	167	29	4	135	-23	-4	+0	-0	-7	+1	-1.0
2024	26	AAA	Iowa Cubs	—	350	302	71	15	0	15	37	105	7	4	2	235	332	434	766	199	301	30	11	339	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	MLB	Miami Marlins	—	134	120	21	4	0	7	11	50	2	0	0	175	256	383	639	208	219	37	8	283	81	-3	+0	-2	-7	+3	-0.9
2025	27	AAA	Reno Aces	—	267	242	60	15	3	19	22	68	2	5	0	248	316	570	886	322	263	25	8	379	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	261	236	39	7	0	10	20	90	3	0	0	165	238	322	560	157	212	34	8	252	57	-13	+0	-3	-24	+6	-3.5
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	23	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	—	15	14	4	1	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	286	333	357	690	71	372	33	7	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	289	258	41	9	1	7	24	93	3	6	0	159	239	283	522	124	201	32	8	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	—	240	218	57	14	1	11	16	42	5	0	0	261	326	486	813	225	273	18	7	348	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AA MLE	Tennessee Smokies	—	230	208	53	15	1	11	15	59	4	2	0	255	317	495	812	240	289	26	7	341	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	—	108	101	28	6	0	6	4	33	2	0	0	277	318	515	833	238	337	31	4	341	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	99	90	15	2	0	3	8	32	1	0	0	167	242	289	531	122	218	32	8	246	52	-6	+0	-2	-10	+2	-1.5
2023	25	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	—	441	383	89	19	1	17	46	118	7	2	1	232	326	420	746	188	277	27	10	325	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	28	27	3	1	0	0	1	8	0	0	0	111	143	148	291	37	167	29	4	134	-23	-4	+0	-0	-7	+1	-1.0
2024	26	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	—	350	312	58	12	0	10	27	126	7	4	2	186	266	321	586	135	260	36	8	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	—	134	121	21	4	0	7	10	50	2	0	0	174	248	380	628	207	219	37	7	288	81	-3	+0	-2	-7	+3	-0.9
2025	27	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	267	248	48	11	3	14	16	80	2	5	0	194	248	431	680	238	218	30	6	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	A MLE	2 teams	—	304	272	44	10	1	7	25	98	3	6	0	162	240	283	523	121	216	32	8	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	A RAW	2 teams	—	304	259	54	12	1	9	37	70	3	6	0	208	313	367	680	158	245	23	12	305	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AAA MLE	4 teams	—	646	590	154	39	2	31	38	150	12	4	0	261	319	492	810	231	296	23	6	344	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AAA RAW	4 teams	—	646	573	174	42	2	42	55	115	12	4	0	304	377	604	980	300	313	18	9	420	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	540	473	104	21	1	20	54	150	8	2	1	220	310	395	706	175	273	28	10	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	540	452	117	25	1	25	75	132	8	2	1	259	374	485	858	226	307	24	14	377	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	378	339	61	13	0	10	28	134	7	4	2	180	257	307	563	127	256	35	7	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	378	328	74	16	0	15	38	113	7	4	2	226	318	412	730	186	289	30	10	324	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	401	369	70	15	3	22	26	130	4	5	0	190	251	425	676	236	219	32	6	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	401	362	81	19	3	26	33	118	4	5	0	224	296	508	804	285	250	29	8	347	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	A MLE	2 teams	—	304	273	44	10	1	7	25	98	3	6	0	161	240	282	522	121	209	32	8	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AAA MLE	4 teams	—	646	591	154	39	2	31	38	150	12	4	0	261	319	491	809	230	291	23	6	344	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	540	473	104	21	1	20	54	150	8	2	1	220	310	395	706	175	266	28	10	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	378	340	61	13	0	10	28	134	7	4	2	179	257	306	563	126	253	35	7	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	401	368	70	15	3	22	26	130	4	5	0	190	251	427	677	236	218	32	6	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	378	340	61	13	0	10	28	134	7	4	2	179	257	306	563	126	253	35	7	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	401	368	70	15	3	22	26	130	4	5	0	190	251	427	677	236	218	32	6	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	29	MLB MLE	ARI	10%	380	346	73	15	2	17	27	111	4	4	2	211	277	413	690	202	255	29	7	303	91	-4	+0	+0	-7	+8	0.0
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	29	MLB CTX	ARI	10%	35	32	7	2	0	1	3	10	0	0	0	216	282	418	700	203	265	29	9	307	91	-0	+0	+0	-1	+1	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	ARI	27%	380	346	71	15	2	16	27	113	4	3	1	207	273	404	678	197	252	30	7	298	88	-6	+0	-2	-7	+8	-0.6
2028	30	MLB CTX	ARI	27%	104	95	21	5	1	4	7	31	1	1	0	212	277	410	687	198	262	30	7	302	88	-2	+0	-1	-2	+2	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	365	331	60	12	1	14	27	121	4	1	0	181	251	350	601	169	232	33	7	266	87	-15	+0	-4	-25	+8	-3.7
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	589	107	21	2	25	48	215	7	2	0	182	251	351	602	170	232	33	7	266	87	-27	+0	-7	-45	+14	-6.6
Career	—	MLE		—	2999	2707	571	127	11	121	223	878	42	28	5	211	281	400	681	189	260	29	7	297	87	-23	+1	-5	-37	+21	-4.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	587	124	28	2	26	48	190	9	6	1	211	281	399	679	187	261	29	7	297	87	-15	+0	-3	-24	+14	-2.8

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1John Mayberry Jr.last yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,506 PA	2.3	1,506	54	15	234	298	417	-6	-18	1.7	1.7
/162	664	24	7	-2.8	-8.1	0.8	pk7: 2
#2Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	2.4	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
/162	664	19	6	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#3Chad Pinderlast yr '22 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,740 PA	2.6	1,740	62	5	242	294	417	-17	-20	0.6	0.6
/162	664	24	2	-6.5	-7.6	0.2	pk7: 1
#4Karim Garcia'95-'04 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,560 PA	2.3	1,560	66	10	231*	269*	413*	-16	-3	-1.0	0.1
/162	664	28	4	-6.7	-1.3	-0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	0.6	372	16	1	187	258	369	-7	-3	-0.8	-0.8
/162	664	29	2	-11.9	-5.4	-1.5	pk7: -1
#5Rip Russell'39-'47 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,522 PA	2.3	1,522	29	4	236*	279*	389*	-16	-12	-2.7	-2.7
/162	664	13	2	-6.9	-5.1	-1.2	pk7: -3
#6Howie Schultz'43-'48 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,698 PA	2.6	1,698	24	15	233*	271*	383*	-30	-2	-3.6	-3.6
/162	664	9	6	-11.8	-0.7	-1.4	pk7: -4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Matt Mervis (OGILVIE)	29	45	60	50	40	209/275/409	200	255	15	4	29%	7%	91	+0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Daniel Palka 2021 · MLB	29	38→43	55	44→50	44	211/277/391	180	269	24	5	31%	8%	86	+0.3	212/275/364	152	270	19	5	28%	8%	79	-0.2	202/263/345	143	255	19	3	28%	7%	67	-0.7
✕Edwin Rios 2022 · MLB	28	38→48	58→60	46→30	42	212/287/416	205	284	27	5	35%	8%	97	+1.1	218/286/388	170	312	21	4	35%	7%	90	+0.6	212/282/379	167	306	20	1	36%	7%	84	+0.1
●Ryan O'Hearn 2022 · MLB	29	42→52	56→60	48→45	46	229/292/415	186	273	26	5	27%	8%	98	+1.2	254/304/420	166	303	20	6	23%	6%	103	+1.5	268/340/432	164	304	21	3	19%	9%	120	+2.3
✕Matt Clark 2015 · MLB	28	45	55	46→30	42	238/293/416	178	289	25	3	27%	6%	99	+1.2	224/277/382	158	277	21	3	26%	6%	84	+0.2	215/271/378	163	261	21	0	26%	7%	82	-0.0
✕Darick Hall 2024 · MLB	29	42→39	53→55	46→40	44	225/283/392	167	273	22	4	27%	7%	89	+0.5	205/265/322	117	270	14	4	29%	7%	66	-1.1	182/244/273	91	243	12	1	29%	7%	44	-1.6
✕Rowdy Tellez 2024 · MLB	29	41→51	57→60	45	50	223/292/412	190	244	26	3	22%	8%	97	+1.1	230/289/400	170	272	23	4	24%	7%	93	+0.8	225/282/387	162	269	22	3	25%	7%	87	+0.2
✕Matt Davidson 2020 · MLB	29	39→45	57→60	45→30	40	213/281/403	190	288	26	2	35%	7%	91	+0.7	222/288/421	199	287	28	3	32%	7%	98	+1.2	224/295/435	211	278	31	0	31%	7%	101	+0.9
✕Shelley Duncan 2009 · MLB	29	40→44	57→60	46→45	48	223/291/416	194	255	26	7	25%	8%	97	+1.1	226/296/414	188	261	24	4	24%	8%	99	+1.2	223/294/408	186	254	24	2	23%	8%	96	+0.8
✕O'Koyea Dickson 2019 · AAA	29	41→46	54→55	44→45	44	221/282/398	177	264	23	6	26%	7%	91	+0.6	231/288/379	148	269	16	9	20%	6%	88	+0.4	232/283/390	157	251	13	0	14%	5%	85	+0.0
✕Josh Lester 2023 · AAA	29	37→44	54→55	46→40	40	204/253/382	177	252	22	6	29%	6%	76	-0.4	205/250/357	152	257	19	5	28%	5%	68	-1.0	195/238/340	145	242	19	2	28%	5%	59	-1.3
✕Bobby Dalbec 2023 · MLB	28	42	59→60	53→50	41	227/291/432	205	299	28	6	34%	7%	101	+1.4	204/276/370	166	314	22	12	40%	8%	82	-0.0	189/264/347	158	301	21	13	42%	8%	69	-0.8
✕Gregory Polanco 2021 · MLB	29	41→51	56→60	51→55	47	219/288/411	192	274	24	12	29%	9%	95	+1.0	224/291/392	168	281	21	18	27%	8%	92	+0.7	218/287/384	167	266	22	23	26%	8%	88	+0.4
✕Stefan Gartrell 2013 · AAA	29	42→52	54→55	50→45	41	222/278/395	173	286	22	8	31%	6%	88	+0.4	225/283/367	142	326	17	9	34%	7%	83	+0.1	217/276/328	111	334	14	3	37%	6%	67	-0.6
✕Sam Hilliard 2023 · MLB	29	37→47	53→55	54→55	46	203/278/374	171	267	22	14	32%	9%	83	+0.1	219/287/392	173	305	20	17	33%	9%	91	+0.6	212/277/398	186	292	19	20	33%	8%	87	+0.3
✕Mike Bianucci 2015 · AAA	29	42→40	56→60	46→40	40	229/271/412	183	267	25	4	25%	5%	89	+0.5	229/268/404	175	278	23	7	27%	5%	86	+0.3	214/243/397	183	250	27	2	28%	3%	73	-0.2
✕Brian O'Grady 2021 · MLB	29	43→38	57→60	52→50	40	227/284/423	196	297	25	16	32%	6%	97	+1.1	214/281/373	159	294	17	14	31%	8%	84	+0.1	191/264/352	161	259	16	13	32%	8%	72	-0.5
✕Jason Dubois 2009 · AAA	30	41→45	55→60	45→40	40	222/279/400	178	281	24	5	30%	6%	89	+0.5	227/288/416	189	292	26	5	31%	6%	97	+1.1	220/282/411	191	279	27	1	31%	6%	90	+0.4
✕Bryce Brentz 2019 · MLB	30	41→51	55→60	47→40	39	220/267/400	180	286	23	4	32%	6%	85	+0.2	206/270/376	170	308	22	5	38%	7%	81	-0.1	166/241/332	165	246	22	0	41%	8%	58	-1.0
✕Jason Perry 2009 · MLB	28	43→51	54→55	52→45	43	225/297/407	182	291	22	7	30%	7%	98	+1.2	221/298/387	166	291	20	9	30%	8%	93	+0.8	167/268/315	147	210	19	4	30%	10%	66	-0.2
✕DJ Stewart 2024 · MLB	30	40→49	58→60	45→50	50	220/314/418	198	262	27	4	28%	10%	107	+1.8	196/297/342	146	262	18	8	31%	11%	84	+0.1	155/276/261	106	216	14	8	32%	12%	58	-0.7

Matt Mervis

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps