Matt Fraizer

CF Portland Sea Dogs

Age 29 L/R 6'1" / 220 lbs AA HR -5%K -4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2036

MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	27	AAAPIT	220	.305/.366/.452	3	14	93	—	.275/.315/.392
2026	28	AABOS	87	.308/.372/.513	1	2	99	—	.262/.314/.438
2026	28	ROKBOS	45	.171/.356/.343	1	0	20	—	.103/.222/.231
2027PROJ2% MLB	29	MLBBOS	3	.236/.290/.358	0	0	76	-0.0
2028PROJ23% MLB	30	MLBBOS	55	.234/.289/.354	1	1	74	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$0.9M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$3M2034Ext$5M+1

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA

Speed87

wOBA82

wRC+82

Whiff%79

Z-Con%79

ISO76

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsKristopher Negrón (age 29) · Brian Bogusevic (age 28) · Andrew Stevenson (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†76

AVG/OBP/SLG.236 / .290 / .358

PA3

HR0

K%33

BB%6

BABIP320

ISO109

MLB%2%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 60 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT60

scouting grade only

POWER45

scouting grade only

EYE40

scouting grade only

SPEED60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	23	AA	Altoona Curve	—	149	132	38	12	3	3	13	34	2	1	2	288	361	492	853	205	361	23	9	370	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	A+	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	350	303	95	14	3	20	43	74	2	14	6	314	401	578	979	264	357	21	12	424	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AA	Altoona Curve	—	480	439	96	18	7	6	35	114	5	18	1	219	284	333	616	114	282	24	7	279	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AA	Altoona Curve	—	486	437	110	16	3	8	43	104	5	21	3	252	326	357	683	105	314	21	9	310	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AAA	Indianapolis Indians	—	151	138	36	9	1	3	12	35	1	6	2	261	325	406	730	145	330	23	8	327	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AA	Altoona Curve	—	218	192	46	7	1	5	20	59	3	10	3	240	321	365	686	125	315	27	9	307	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	AAA	Indianapolis Indians	—	220	197	60	18	1	3	19	44	0	14	2	305	366	452	818	147	373	20	9	357	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	28	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	—	87	78	24	9	2	1	7	19	1	2	0	308	372	513	885	205	390	22	8	383	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	28	ROK	FCL Red Sox	—	45	35	6	3	0	1	9	14	1	0	1	171	356	343	698	171	250	31	20	328	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	23	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	—	149	136	33	11	2	2	9	42	2	1	2	243	299	397	696	154	325	28	6	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	350	320	80	12	3	13	27	98	2	14	6	250	312	428	740	178	315	28	8	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	—	480	450	83	16	5	4	24	143	5	18	1	184	234	269	503	84	259	30	5	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	—	486	452	97	12	3	6	28	126	5	21	3	215	268	294	562	80	281	26	6	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	—	151	141	30	7	1	2	9	44	1	6	2	213	265	319	584	106	292	29	6	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	—	218	199	41	6	1	4	13	75	3	10	3	206	265	307	572	101	291	34	6	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	—	220	204	56	16	1	2	12	55	0	14	2	275	315	392	707	118	346	25	5	305	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	28	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	—	87	80	21	7	2	1	5	23	1	2	0	263	314	438	751	175	344	26	6	314	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	28	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	—	45	39	4	2	0	1	5	20	1	0	1	103	222	231	453	128	176	44	11	198	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	499	456	114	23	5	16	36	140	4	15	8	250	310	428	738	178	323	28	7	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	499	435	133	26	6	23	56	108	4	15	8	306	389	552	941	246	358	22	11	408	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	—	480	450	83	16	5	4	24	143	5	18	1	184	234	269	503	84	261	30	5	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AA RAW	Altoona Curve	—	480	439	96	18	7	6	35	114	5	18	1	219	284	333	616	114	282	24	7	279	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	—	486	452	97	12	3	6	28	126	5	21	3	215	268	294	562	80	284	26	6	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AA RAW	Altoona Curve	—	486	437	110	16	3	8	43	104	5	21	3	252	326	357	683	105	314	21	9	310	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AA MLE	2 teams	—	369	341	72	13	2	7	21	119	4	16	5	211	265	323	588	111	300	32	6	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AA RAW	2 teams	—	369	330	82	16	2	8	32	94	4	16	5	248	322	382	704	133	322	25	9	315	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	—	220	204	56	16	1	2	12	55	0	14	2	275	315	392	707	118	360	25	5	305	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	AAA RAW	Indianapolis Indians	—	220	197	60	18	1	3	19	44	0	14	2	305	366	452	818	147	373	20	9	357	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	28	AA MLE	2 teams	—	132	119	24	9	2	1	10	43	2	2	1	202	275	336	611	134	303	33	8	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	28	AA RAW	2 teams	—	132	113	30	12	2	2	16	33	2	2	1	265	366	460	827	195	354	25	12	364	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	499	456	114	23	5	16	36	140	4	15	8	250	310	428	738	178	318	28	7	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	—	480	448	83	16	5	4	24	143	5	18	1	185	234	270	504	85	259	30	5	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	—	486	450	97	12	3	6	28	126	5	21	3	216	268	296	564	80	281	26	6	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AA MLE	2 teams	—	369	341	72	13	2	7	21	119	4	16	5	211	265	323	588	111	291	32	6	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	—	220	206	56	16	1	2	12	55	0	14	2	272	315	388	703	117	346	25	5	305	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	28	AA MLE	2 teams	—	132	119	24	9	2	1	10	43	2	2	1	202	275	336	611	134	287	33	8	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	26	AA MLE	2 teams	—	369	341	72	13	2	7	21	119	4	16	5	211	265	323	588	111	291	32	6	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	—	220	206	56	16	1	2	12	55	0	14	2	272	315	388	703	117	346	25	5	305	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	28	AA MLE	2 teams	—	132	119	24	9	2	1	10	43	2	2	1	202	275	336	611	134	287	33	8	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	29	MLB MLE	BOS	2%	200	184	42	11	1	3	13	56	1	6	1	227	282	345	627	117	308	28	6	280	76	-6	+1	+0	+1	+4	0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	29	MLB CTX	BOS	2%	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	236	290	358	648	122	320	33	0	289	76	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	BOS	23%	243	224	50	13	1	3	15	68	2	6	1	226	281	341	622	115	306	28	6	278	74	-7	+1	-2	+1	+5	-0.3
2028	30	MLB CTX	BOS	23%	55	52	12	3	0	1	3	15	0	1	0	234	289	354	642	120	318	27	5	287	74	-2	+0	-0	+0	+1	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	55	52	12	3	0	1	3	15	0	1	0	231	273	346	619	115	306	27	5	287	68	-2	+0	-0	+0	+1	-0.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	615	142	35	0	12	35	177	0	12	0	231	272	346	619	115	305	27	5	287	68	-20	+2	-6	+2	+14	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		—	2599	2402	531	111	20	41	157	742	23	97	22	221	275	335	611	114	301	29	6	268	68	-12	+1	-2	+1	+9	-0.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	601	133	28	5	10	39	186	6	24	6	221	276	334	610	113	301	29	6	268	68	-19	+2	-3	+2	+14	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Matt Fraizer (OGILVIE)	29	60	45	60	40	225/280/342	116	308	2	5	28%	6%	76	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Kristopher Negrón 2015 · MLB	29	45→49	43→45	55	39	220/272/336	116	297	10	18	29%	5%	71	-0.8	212/265/320	108	278	10	16	26%	5%	65	-1.2	217/277/337	120	309	13	14	32%	6%	71	-0.6
✕Brian Bogusevic 2012 · MLB	28	50→54	42→45	57→55	46	241/302/353	112	314	9	22	25%	8%	86	+0.3	236/308/361	125	300	12	20	24%	8%	91	+0.6	252/309/379	126	316	13	19	23%	7%	92	+0.6
✕Andrew Stevenson 2023 · MLB	29	51→60	46→50	59→60	41	247/296/383	136	320	12	24	26%	5%	91	+0.6	247/301/376	129	321	12	36	25%	6%	91	+0.7	253/310/378	125	329	11	48	25%	6%	90	+0.4
✕Mike Freeman 2017 · MLB	29	55→59	39→45	56→55	45	259/304/349	90	322	5	12	20%	6%	85	+0.2	240/294/336	96	316	8	11	25%	6%	79	-0.2	230/291/325	95	305	10	10	26%	7%	74	-0.3
✕Jason Pridie 2013 · MLB	29	48→55	45→50	55	44	236/283/359	122	297	12	14	24%	6%	80	-0.2	229/275/360	131	289	14	16	25%	6%	78	-0.3	228/274/362	134	283	15	19	25%	6%	75	-0.4
✕Dillon Thomas 2022 · AAA	29	48→58	46→45	52→50	39	226/298/354	127	337	13	16	34%	6%	86	+0.3	230/308/368	138	326	15	10	32%	7%	93	+0.8	221/305/359	137	311	15	6	31%	7%	87	+0.3
✕Clay Dungan 2024 · AAA	28	45→53	40→45	55	47	218/288/308	90	278	7	20	23%	8%	71	-0.8	215/288/329	114	296	9	21	28%	8%	76	-0.4	208/282/325	117	289	9	21	29%	8%	71	-0.6
✕Scott Cousins 2013 · MLB	28	47→51	45→50	53→55	42	233/280/362	129	302	13	17	27%	6%	80	-0.2	216/274/316	100	293	9	16	28%	6%	67	-1.1	183/246/232	49	259	2	16	28%	5%	35	-1.2
✕Steven Duggar 2023 · MLB	29	45→55	45→50	60→55	42	214/280/343	129	324	12	21	36%	8%	76	-0.4	208/285/334	126	333	14	14	38%	9%	76	-0.4	178/268/287	108	295	13	9	40%	11%	57	-0.8
✕Luis Bolivar 2009 · AAA	28	49→55	43→45	57→55	40	240/284/354	115	305	9	20	24%	5%	80	-0.2	210/250/310	100	274	8	24	26%	4%	57	-1.8	192/228/279	86	251	7	28	26%	3%	38	-2.0
✕Ian Miller 2021 · MLB	29	46→56	42→40	58→60	45	226/281/337	112	277	9	29	22%	6%	74	-0.5	228/280/319	91	288	7	21	22%	6%	70	-0.9	229/278/296	68	290	3	25	21%	5%	62	-1.0
✕Brian Bixler 2012 · MLB	29	51→57	40→45	53→55	41	241/295/339	98	333	6	19	28%	6%	80	-0.2	212/266/293	81	303	6	15	30%	6%	59	-1.7	194/248/259	65	282	5	13	31%	6%	42	-1.7
✕Chris Rahl 2013 · AAA	29	51→56	44→45	58→55	37	246/284/369	123	326	11	24	28%	4%	82	+0.0	233/255/343	110	313	10	17	28%	3%	65	-1.2	230/243/331	101	308	9	15	28%	1%	56	-1.2
✕Greg Golson 2015 · AAA	29	46→53	43→45	59→55	37	224/265/340	116	309	10	23	30%	4%	69	-0.9	258/314/349	91	355	5	23	27%	6%	89	+0.5	279/334/351	72	387	2	28	26%	5%	93	+0.3
✕Drew Avans 2024 · AAA	28	49→55	42→45	58→60	48	231/304/339	109	316	8	26	28%	9%	84	+0.1	229/296/321	92	318	7	30	28%	8%	76	-0.4	225/293/305	80	312	5	35	28%	8%	69	-0.8
✕John Andreoli 2019 · MLB	29	46→56	42→45	56→60	47	218/295/331	113	309	9	25	30%	9%	79	-0.2	203/292/326	123	314	12	15	35%	11%	77	-0.3	159/263/282	124	258	14	17	41%	12%	56	-1.2
✕Matt Long 2015 · AAA	28	44→53	43→50	56→55	45	217/274/332	115	285	11	21	27%	7%	71	-0.8	204/257/309	105	270	9	14	27%	7%	59	-1.6	186/236/282	96	242	7	11	26%	6%	44	-2.3
✕Miles Mastrobuoni 2024 · MLB	28	52→57	42→45	58→60	50	248/314/359	111	314	9	24	23%	9%	92	+0.7	223/291/310	87	278	6	23	20%	9%	72	-0.7	212/280/283	71	262	4	22	19%	9%	61	-0.8
✕J.C. Escarra 2024 · AAA	29	44→45	44→45	52→45	45	216/287/331	115	279	11	11	26%	7%	76	-0.4	224/292/345	121	261	11	6	18%	8%	81	-0.1	220/289/338	117	255	10	3	17%	7%	76	-0.2
✕Garrett Hampson 2024 · MLB	29	53→57	42→45	56→60	47	250/314/358	108	326	8	19	25%	8%	92	+0.7	226/286/314	88	309	5	16	26%	7%	71	-0.8	207/251/282	75	285	3	16	27%	5%	48	-1.1