Jake Burger

1B Texas Rangers

Age 31 R/R 6'0" / 230 lbs MLB HR +15%BB +5% Svc 3.738 · Ctrl thru 2029

Overview

MLB40-MANArb-1FA 2030

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR
2024	28	MLBMIA	579	.250/.303/.460	29	1	118	2.1
2025	29	MLBTEX	376	.236/.271/.419	16	1	86	-1.0
2026	30	MLBTEX	620	.228/.304/.421	28	4	98	-0.1
2027PROJ	31	MLBTEX	540	.248/.309/.461	27	4	110	1.0
2028PROJ	32	MLBTEX	608	.241/.302/.445	30	1	104	0.2
2029PROJ	33	MLBTEX	524	.232/.292/.425	25	0	96	-0.4

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.0 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2029Service3.738First FA2030

2027Arb-1$2M2028Arb-2$2M2029Arb-3$2M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

Chase%82

Barrel%80

Bat Spd77

Avg EV72

Whiff%67

xwOBA65

Form.238/.324/.445 ▲ rolling true talent (45d window) · proj .245/.304/.448

CompsKyle Garlick (age 31) · Mark Trumbo (age 31) · Matt Davidson (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 115110vR 97

AVG/OBP/SLG.248 / .309 / .461

PA540

HR27

K%26

BB%7

BABIP287

ISO211

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$4M ctrl surplus

Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 50 / POW 60

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT50

Whiff%

679.2%

xAVG

370.241

POWER60

Barrel%

8012.7

Avg EV

7290.6

Bat Spd

7774.2

EYE30

Chase%

8225.5%

SPEED55

Sprint

4627.3

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%27%▼27% over 70 PA (45d) · proj 26%

BB%11%▲▲14% over 122 PA (60d) · proj 7%

ISO.207·.214 over 103 AB (60d) · proj .203

HR/BB7.6%·8.3% over 72 BBE (60d) · proj 7.1%

BABIP.282▼.212 over 66 BIP (60d) · proj .287

SLASH.238/.324/.445▲proj .245/.304/.448

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 1064 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

309

755

—

wRC+

100

▶R

wOBA

312

316

—

ISO

207

193

◀L

BABIP

266

291

▶R

23.3%

26.8%

◀L

BB%

4.9%

3.8%

◀◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2021

Service 3.738 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-1	$2M	+1.1	$9M	+$7M
2028	Arb-2	$2M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Arb-3	$2M	—	—	—
Totals		$2M		$8M	+$7M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2017	21	A	Kannapolis Intimidators	—	200	181	49	9	2	4	13	28	5	0	1	271	337	409	746	138	300	14	6	333	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	ROK	ACL White Sox	—	17	13	2	1	0	1	1	2	3	0	0	154	353	462	814	308	100	12	6	369	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	MLB	Chicago White Sox	—	42	38	10	3	1	1	4	15	0	0	0	263	333	474	807	211	409	36	10	354	124	+1	+0	+1	+1	+1	0.5
2021	25	AAA	Charlotte Knights	—	340	310	85	16	2	18	24	91	4	0	0	274	334	513	847	239	330	27	7	368	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	MLB	Chicago White Sox	—	183	168	42	9	1	8	10	56	3	0	0	250	304	458	762	208	324	31	5	332	107	+1	+0	-4	+1	+4	0.3
2022	26	AAA	Charlotte Knights	—	168	146	37	0	2	5	18	34	4	0	1	253	351	384	735	130	299	20	11	335	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	MLB	Miami Marlins	—	540	492	123	28	1	34	32	149	12	1	1	250	312	518	830	268	284	28	6	359	139	+25	-0	-6	+2	+12	3.4
2023	27	AAA	Charlotte Knights	—	22	20	4	1	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	200	238	250	488	50	222	14	5	213	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	MLB	Miami Marlins	—	579	535	134	23	1	29	31	150	9	1	1	250	303	460	762	209	292	26	5	333	118	+13	-0	-7	+2	+13	2.1
2025	29	MLB	Texas Rangers	—	376	356	84	15	1	16	12	93	5	1	1	236	271	419	689	183	272	25	3	301	86	-6	-0	-4	-7	+8	-1.0
2025	29	AAA	Round Rock Express	—	40	36	16	4	0	3	4	2	0	0	0	444	500	806	1.306	361	419	5	10	558	197	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	30	MLB	Texas Rangers	—	620	556	127	23	0	28	56	167	4	4	2	228	304	421	724	192	271	27	9	320	98	-1	+0	-2	-11	+13	-0.1
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	2340	2145	520	101	5	116	145	630	33	7	5	242	300	456	757	214	286	27	6	331	110	+28	-1	-22	-12	+51	4.5
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2017	21	A MLE	Kannapolis Intimidators	—	200	185	45	7	2	4	9	38	5	0	1	243	296	368	664	124	279	19	4	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	ROK MLE	ACL White Sox	—	17	13	2	1	0	1	1	3	3	0	0	154	353	462	814	308	69	18	6	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	—	42	38	10	3	1	1	4	15	0	0	0	263	333	474	807	211	409	36	10	352	124	+1	+0	+1	+1	+1	0.5
2021	25	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	—	340	318	72	12	2	11	16	108	4	0	0	226	272	381	653	154	299	32	5	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	—	183	169	42	9	1	8	9	56	3	0	0	249	298	456	754	207	324	31	5	326	107	+1	+0	-4	+1	+4	0.3
2022	26	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	—	168	152	32	0	2	2	12	42	4	0	1	211	286	276	562	66	279	25	7	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	—	540	492	129	31	1	36	32	149	12	1	1	262	323	549	872	287	284	28	6	374	139	+25	-0	-6	+2	+12	3.4
2023	27	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	—	22	20	4	1	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	200	238	250	488	50	209	18	5	200	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	—	579	537	139	25	1	31	29	150	9	1	1	259	308	482	790	223	292	26	5	343	118	+13	-0	-7	+2	+13	2.1
2025	29	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	—	376	356	84	16	1	15	12	93	5	1	1	236	271	413	684	177	272	25	3	296	86	-6	-0	-4	-7	+8	-1.0
2025	29	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	—	40	37	14	4	0	2	3	2	0	0	0	378	425	649	1.074	270	362	5	8	460	197	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	30	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	—	620	556	126	24	0	26	56	167	4	4	2	227	302	410	712	183	271	27	9	314	98	-1	+0	-2	-11	+13	-0.1
2017	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	217	198	47	8	2	5	10	41	8	0	1	237	301	374	675	136	275	19	5	281	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	A RAW	2 teams	—	217	194	51	10	2	5	14	30	8	0	1	263	338	412	750	149	287	14	6	336	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	382	356	82	15	3	12	20	123	4	0	0	230	279	390	669	160	314	32	5	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	382	348	95	19	3	19	28	106	4	0	0	273	334	509	843	236	338	28	7	367	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	351	321	74	9	3	10	21	98	7	0	1	231	292	371	663	140	299	28	6	296	86	-6	-0	-4	+1	+8	-0.1
2022	26	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	351	314	79	9	3	13	28	90	7	0	1	252	327	424	750	172	311	26	8	333	86	-6	-0	-4	+1	+8	-0.1
2023	27	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	562	512	132	31	1	36	33	153	12	1	1	258	318	533	851	275	293	27	6	367	134	+23	-0	-6	+2	+12	3.2
2023	27	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	562	512	127	29	1	34	33	152	12	1	1	248	309	508	817	260	281	27	6	353	134	+23	-0	-6	+2	+12	3.2
2024	28	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	—	579	537	139	25	1	31	29	150	9	1	1	259	308	482	790	223	300	26	5	343	118	+13	-0	-7	+2	+13	2.1
2024	28	MLB RAW	Miami Marlins	—	579	535	134	23	1	29	31	150	9	1	1	250	303	460	762	209	292	26	5	333	118	+13	-0	-7	+2	+13	2.1
2025	29	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	416	393	97	19	1	17	15	95	5	1	1	247	283	430	713	183	282	23	4	312	97	-1	-0	-4	-7	+9	-0.4
2025	29	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	416	392	100	19	1	19	16	95	5	1	1	255	293	454	747	199	288	23	4	326	97	-1	-0	-4	-7	+9	-0.4
2026	30	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	—	620	556	126	24	0	26	56	167	4	4	2	227	302	410	712	183	272	27	9	314	98	-1	+0	-2	-11	+13	-0.1
2026	30	MLB RAW	Texas Rangers	—	620	556	127	23	0	28	56	167	4	4	2	228	304	421	724	192	271	27	9	320	98	-1	+0	-2	-11	+13	-0.1
2017	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	217	197	47	8	2	5	10	41	8	0	1	239	301	376	677	137	263	19	5	281	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	382	355	82	15	3	12	20	123	4	0	0	231	279	392	670	161	311	32	5	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	351	320	74	9	3	10	21	98	7	0	1	231	292	372	664	141	302	28	6	296	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	562	512	132	31	1	36	33	153	12	1	1	258	318	533	851	275	281	27	6	367	134	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	—	579	536	139	25	1	31	29	150	9	1	1	259	308	483	791	224	292	26	5	343	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	416	393	97	19	1	17	15	95	5	1	1	247	283	430	713	183	281	23	4	312	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	30	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	—	620	555	126	24	0	26	56	167	4	4	2	227	302	411	713	184	271	27	9	314	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	28	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	—	579	536	139	25	1	31	29	150	9	1	1	259	308	483	791	224	292	26	5	343	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	416	393	97	19	1	17	15	95	5	1	1	247	283	430	713	183	281	23	4	312	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	30	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	—	620	555	126	24	0	26	56	167	4	4	2	227	302	411	713	184	271	27	9	314	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	31	MLB MLE	TEX	100%	540	492	120	22	1	25	38	139	5	4	1	245	307	448	755	203	287	26	7	331	110	+6	+0	+1	-10	+12	1.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	31	MLB CTX	TEX	100%	540	492	122	21	1	27	38	139	5	4	1	248	309	461	770	213	287	26	7	337	110	+6	+0	+1	-10	+12	1.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	TEX	100%	608	555	133	24	1	28	43	160	5	1	1	238	299	432	731	194	281	26	7	321	104	+3	-0	-3	-11	+13	0.2
2029	33	MLB MLE	TEX	100%	524	479	110	19	0	23	36	141	4	0	0	230	289	413	703	183	273	27	7	309	96	-3	+0	-3	-9	+11	-0.4
2028	32	MLB CTX	TEX	100%	608	555	135	23	1	30	43	160	5	1	1	241	302	445	746	204	281	26	7	327	104	+3	-0	-3	-11	+13	0.2
2029	33	MLB CTX	TEX	100%	524	479	112	18	0	25	36	141	4	0	0	232	292	425	717	192	273	27	7	315	96	-3	+0	-3	-9	+11	-0.4
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3472	3179	767	142	6	171	224	931	42	8	6	241	300	451	751	210	284	27	6	328	103	+28	-1	-28	-32	+75	4.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	595	144	27	1	32	42	174	8	1	1	242	301	452	753	210	285	27	6	328	103	+5	-0	-5	-6	+14	0.8
Career	—	MLE		—	4799	4399	1060	196	13	213	301	1267	63	12	9	241	299	437	736	196	287	26	6	321	103	+34	-0	-27	-42	+87	5.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	596	144	27	2	29	41	172	9	2	1	242	301	440	740	198	288	26	6	321	103	+6	-0	-4	-7	+14	0.9

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Deron Johnson'60-'76 * career totals — 13 seasons, 6,620 PA	10.0	6,620	245	11	243*	312*	456*	-92	-45	7.1	10.2
/162	664	25	1	-9.2	-4.5	0.7	pk7: 13
#2C.J. Cronlast yr '23 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,043 PA	6.1	4,043	187	10	260	320	471	-72	-46	8.9	8.9
/162	664	31	2	-11.9	-7.6	1.5	pk7: 9
#3Hunter Renfroelast yr '25 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,727 PA	5.6	3,727	188	15	235	297	458	-40	-32	7.3	8.0
/162	664	33	3	-7.1	-5.7	1.3	pk7: 9
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	6.0	3,970	191	12	241	297	448	-71	-34	6.3	6.4
/162	664	32	2	-11.9	-5.6	1.1	pk7: 6
#4Brandon Mosslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,459 PA	5.2	3,459	160	11	238	315	455	-53	-41	5.9	5.9
/162	664	31	2	-10.2	-7.9	1.1	pk7: 6
#5Bob Oliver'65-'75 * career totals — 6 seasons, 3,123 PA	4.7	3,123	94	17	260*	297*	445*	-35	-17	3.4	3.9
/162	664	20	4	-7.4	-3.6	0.7	pk7: 4
#6Steve Balboni'81-'93 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,440 PA	5.2	3,440	181	1	227*	293*	471*	-69	-19	2.6	3.3
/162	664	35	0	-13.3	-3.7	0.5	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jake Burger (OGILVIE)	31	50	60	55	30	243/304/444	201	287	25	4	26%	7%	110	+1.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Kyle Garlick 2023 · MLB	31	43→49	58→60	49→40	40	234/290/432	198	297	27	5	31%	6%	101	+1.4	193/261/337	144	273	18	4	35%	7%	68	-1.0	169/240/296	127	240	16	2	36%	7%	50	-1.9
✕Mark Trumbo 2017 · MLB	31	46→53	62→65	46→45	46	252/307/476	224	287	31	3	25%	7%	118	+2.6	241/296/425	184	286	25	3	25%	7%	101	+1.4	238/293/398	160	284	23	1	25%	7%	95	+0.8
✕Matt Davidson 2022 · MLB	31	41→45	59→60	46→30	40	225/283/429	204	285	28	3	32%	6%	98	+1.2	234/306/433	199	302	28	5	31%	7%	107	+1.9	219/301/420	201	274	32	0	32%	8%	100	+0.9
●John Lindsey 2008 · AAA	31	48→51	55→60	46→30	40	252/304/439	187	296	23	3	24%	5%	108	+1.9	241/301/409	168	288	20	2	23%	6%	100	+1.3	237/298/429	192	289	24	0	26%	5%	101	+1.0
✕Mitch Jones 2009 · AAA	31	38→40	59→65	50→45	41	213/277/419	206	275	27	8	33%	7%	94	+0.9	210/258/406	196	259	26	9	30%	5%	83	+0.1	196/240/389	193	234	26	8	30%	4%	71	-0.6
✕Joey Meneses 2023 · MLB	31	49→56	53→55	47→40	42	255/295/428	173	302	22	3	24%	5%	101	+1.4	245/292/375	130	294	14	3	21%	6%	88	+0.4	234/284/349	115	280	11	1	20%	6%	78	-0.3
✕Andy Phillips 2006 · MLB	29	45→55	59→55	49→40	45	246/298/451	205	276	28	6	23%	6%	108	+1.9	251/301/404	153	287	18	6	19%	6%	97	+1.1	256/307/392	136	289	15	4	17%	6%	97	+0.6
✕Seth Brown 2024 · MLB	32	42→48	60→65	50	47	231/295/445	214	270	28	9	27%	8%	106	+1.8	237/294/413	176	297	24	7	28%	7%	98	+1.2	229/286/392	163	292	24	6	29%	7%	88	+0.2
✕Frank Schwindel 2022 · MLB	30	49→54	58→55	44→30	43	262/300/463	201	282	27	4	19%	5%	112	+2.2	241/287/403	162	276	20	5	21%	6%	93	+0.8	220/262/348	128	253	16	0	21%	5%	70	-0.5
✕Adolis García 2024 · MLB	31	45→49	60	51→50	46	244/309/464	220	296	29	14	28%	8%	116	+2.5	226/287/403	177	280	22	12	27%	7%	93	+0.8	215/273/372	157	269	20	11	27%	6%	81	-0.0
✕Shelley Duncan 2011 · MLB	31	42→44	55→60	48→45	48	227/297/410	183	263	24	4	24%	8%	99	+1.2	212/283/377	165	249	21	3	24%	8%	86	+0.3	187/259/336	149	217	19	1	24%	8%	67	-0.6
✕Mario Valenzuela 2008 · AAA	31	51→57	57→55	42→40	40	271/308/461	190	309	28	5	23%	4%	114	+2.4	259/300/411	152	296	20	8	19%	5%	99	+1.3	263/316/431	167	299	22	2	20%	6%	108	+1.1
✕Matt Adams 2020 · MLB	31	42→52	65	46→40	42	242/294/478	236	279	35	2	28%	6%	114	+2.3	229/286/409	180	288	24	6	29%	7%	94	+0.9	173/209/280	107	240	15	0	35%	4%	32	-2.4
✕Trayce Thompson 2023 · MLB	32	42→49	60	49→50	45	225/303/444	219	308	28	8	35%	9%	109	+2.0	198/272/364	166	286	21	10	36%	9%	79	-0.2	166/237/299	134	240	17	11	37%	8%	50	-1.3
✕Mitch Haniger 2022 · MLB	31	45→55	63→65	49→50	47	252/319/483	231	284	33	3	25%	8%	124	+3.1	234/303/418	184	281	25	3	26%	8%	103	+1.5	215/289/368	152	269	20	1	27%	8%	86	+0.2
✕ByungHo Park 2017 · MLB	31	36→40	60→65	49→30	42	210/284/424	214	256	30	5	31%	7%	98	+1.2	215/266/365	150	296	19	4	33%	5%	76	-0.4	204/244/327	123	290	15	0	34%	4%	55	-1.5
✕Jared Walsh 2023 · MLB	30	47→53	56→60	45→30	42	246/297/440	194	303	24	4	28%	6%	105	+1.7	196/270/343	147	289	19	4	36%	9%	73	-0.6	149/241/271	122	230	17	1	41%	10%	45	-1.2
✕Patrick Kivlehan 2021 · AAA	31	40→50	56→60	44→50	40	219/279/412	193	281	25	5	31%	6%	93	+0.8	211/261/364	153	286	19	8	32%	6%	74	-0.5	183/226/319	136	248	19	6	34%	5%	48	-1.5
●Adam Duvall 2020 · MLB	31	38→45	63→70	44→45	44	223/287/457	233	251	32	4	27%	7%	106	+1.8	229/289/477	248	263	36	4	29%	7%	112	+2.2	223/282/469	245	269	35	4	32%	6%	108	+1.3
✕Cyle Hankerd 2016 · AAA	31	48→49	55→60	43→45	43	251/319/438	187	291	24	6	23%	6%	114	+2.3	243/319/400	157	287	17	4	21%	6%	105	+1.7	237/316/378	141	289	15	1	22%	6%	98	+0.6

Jake Burger

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps