Dustin May
P
St. Louis Cardinals
Age 28
RHP
6'6" / 180 lbs
MLB
Svc 6.0 · Ctrl thru 2026
peak 1.6 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION93 act + 62 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10192vR 83
ERA3.63
FIP3.68
K%22.4%
BB%8.1%
K-BB%14.3%
ROS IP62
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 155 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p8496.9
Whiff%
p2822.2%
K%
p5422.9%
xwOBA vs
p610.301
CT+2.0 (22%)
SI (18%)
CU (7%)
CH-2.2 (7%)
FB-3.4 (45%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 18 | ROK | AZL Dodgers | 10 | 6 | 30 | 135 | 34 | 4 | 0 | 60% | 3.0 | 17.1% | 3.7% | 13.4% | 0.0% | 3.86 | 2.12 | — |
| 2016 | 18 | ROK | AZL Dodgers | 10 | 6 | 30 | 135 | 34 | 4 | 0 | 60% | 3.0 | 25.2% | 3.0% | 22.2% | 0.0% | 3.86 | 1.25 | — |
| 2017 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 24 | 134 | 566 | 128 | 27 | 8 | 96% | 5.4 | 15.9% | 5.8% | 10.1% | 2.1% | 3.63 | 3.65 | — |
| 2017 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 24 | 134 | 566 | 128 | 27 | 8 | 96% | 5.4 | 22.6% | 4.8% | 17.8% | 1.4% | 3.63 | 2.57 | — |
| 2018 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 23 | 133 | 552 | 122 | 29 | 9 | 100% | 5.8 | 17.2% | 5.9% | 11.3% | 1.8% | 3.39 | 3.40 | — |
| 2018 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 23 | 133 | 552 | 122 | 29 | 9 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.1% | 5.3% | 16.8% | 1.6% | 3.39 | 2.80 | — |
| 2019 | 21 | MIX | 3 levels | 34 | 24 | 141 | 588 | 142 | 34 | 7 | 71% | 4.2 | 20.9% | 6.2% | 14.7% | 1.6% | 3.44 | 3.00 | +4.0 |
| 2019 | 21 | MIX | 3 levels | 34 | 24 | 141 | 588 | 142 | 34 | 7 | 71% | 4.2 | 24.1% | 5.8% | 18.4% | 1.2% | 3.44 | 2.46 | +4.9 |
| 2020 | 22 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 12 | 10 | 56 | 224 | 44 | 16 | 9 | 83% | 4.7 | 19.6% | 7.1% | 12.5% | 4.3% | 2.57 | 4.68 | -0.1 |
| 2020 | 22 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 12 | 10 | 56 | 224 | 44 | 16 | 9 | 83% | 4.7 | 19.6% | 7.1% | 12.5% | 4.0% | 2.57 | 4.47 | +0.0 |
| 2021 | 23 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 5 | 5 | 23 | 93 | 35 | 6 | 4 | 100% | 4.6 | 37.6% | 6.5% | 31.2% | 4.6% | 2.74 | 3.24 | +0.4 |
| 2021 | 23 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 5 | 5 | 23 | 93 | 35 | 6 | 4 | 100% | 4.6 | 37.6% | 6.5% | 31.2% | 4.3% | 2.74 | 3.10 | +0.4 |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 12 | 12 | 51 | 213 | 65 | 20 | 5 | 100% | 4.2 | 28.2% | 9.9% | 18.3% | 2.6% | 3.35 | 3.41 | +0.7 |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 12 | 12 | 51 | 213 | 65 | 20 | 5 | 100% | 4.2 | 30.5% | 9.4% | 21.1% | 2.3% | 3.35 | 3.00 | +0.9 |
| 2023 | 25 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 9 | 9 | 48 | 187 | 34 | 16 | 1 | 100% | 5.3 | 18.2% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 0.6% | 2.62 | 2.96 | +0.9 |
| 2023 | 25 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 9 | 9 | 48 | 187 | 34 | 16 | 1 | 100% | 5.3 | 18.2% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 0.5% | 2.62 | 2.95 | +0.9 |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 25 | 23 | 132 | 584 | 123 | 53 | 21 | 92% | 5.3 | 21.1% | 9.1% | 12.0% | 3.6% | 4.96 | 4.43 | +1.5 |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 25 | 23 | 132 | 584 | 123 | 53 | 21 | 92% | 5.3 | 21.1% | 9.1% | 12.0% | 3.6% | 4.96 | 4.51 | +1.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 18 | 18 | 93 | 389 | 89 | 28 | 7 | 100% | 5.2 | 22.9% | 7.2% | 15.7% | 1.8% | 4.55 | 3.07 | +2.4 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | STL | 10 | 10 | 62 | 262 | 59 | 21 | 7 | 100% | 6.2 | 22.4% | 8.1% | 14.3% | 2.6% | 3.63 | 3.68 | +0.7 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | STL | 10 | 10 | 62 | 262 | 59 | 21 | 7 | 100% | 6.2 | 22.4% | 8.1% | 14.3% | 2.6% | 3.63 | 3.68 | +0.7 |
| 2026 TOT | 28 | MLB | STL | — | — | 155 | 651 | 148 | 49 | 14 | — | — | 22.7% | 7.5% | 15.1% | 2.1% | 4.18 | 3.31 | +3.8 |
| 2026 FULL | 28 | MLB | STL | — | — | 155 | 654 | 148 | 49 | 14 | — | — | 22.6% | 7.5% | 15.0% | 2.1% | 4.18 | 3.31 | +3.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | STL | 19 | 19 | 114 | 480 | 104 | 40 | 13 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.7% | 8.3% | 13.4% | 2.8% | 4.15 | 4.23 | +1.6 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | STL | 18 | 18 | 107 | 451 | 95 | 39 | 14 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.0% | 8.6% | 12.4% | 3.0% | 4.32 | 4.44 | +1.2 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | STL | 17 | 17 | 100 | 421 | 85 | 38 | 14 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.2% | 8.9% | 11.3% | 3.2% | 4.53 | 4.67 | +0.8 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | STL | 19 | 19 | 114 | 481 | 104 | 40 | 13 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.7% | 8.3% | 13.4% | 2.8% | 4.15 | 4.23 | +1.6 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | STL | 18 | 18 | 107 | 452 | 95 | 39 | 13 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.0% | 8.6% | 12.4% | 3.0% | 4.32 | 4.44 | +1.2 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | STL | 17 | 17 | 100 | 422 | 85 | 38 | 14 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.2% | 8.9% | 11.3% | 3.2% | 4.53 | 4.67 | +0.9 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 154 | 140 | 799 | 3359 | 728 | 275 | 94 | 91% | 5.2 | 21.7% | 8.2% | 13.5% | 2.8% | 4.11 | 3.85 | +14.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 39 | 35 | 200 | 841 | 182 | 69 | 24 | 91% | 5.2 | 21.7% | 8.2% | 13.5% | 2.8% | 4.11 | 3.85 | +3.6 | ||
| Career | — | 173 | 154 | 842 | 3531 | 716 | 247 | 80 | 89% | 4.9 | 20.3% | 7.0% | 13.3% | 2.3% | 3.71 | 3.51 | +18.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 41 | 37 | 200 | 839 | 170 | 59 | 19 | 89% | 4.9 | 20.3% | 7.0% | 13.3% | 2.3% | 3.71 | 3.51 | +4.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Dustin May (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.62 | 21.4% | 9.0% | 3.3% | — | 4.44 | 21.0% | 12.4% | 320 | -0.18 | — | — | — |
| David Phelps R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.94 | 16.0% | 6.8% | 2.4% | .299 | 2.83 | 29.9% | 20.6% | 142 | -1.11 | 2.51 | 373 | 70 |
| Charlie Morton R 2029 · 3.55 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.55 | 17.9% | 6.3% | 2.1% | .302 | 3.11 | 27.7% | 18.9% | 331 | -0.44 | 2.55 | 1,534 | 70 |
| Chase Anderson R 2026 · 5.05 FIP | 28 | SP | 5.05 | 18.5% | 8.2% | 4.5% | .285 | 4.43 | 21.3% | 13.3% | 438 | -0.62 | 3.42 | 1,146 | 69 |
| Brad Peacock R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.89 | 20.9% | 8.7% | 2.7% | .302 | 3.31 | 29.4% | 20.4% | 289 | -0.58 | 2.88 | 533 | 69 |
| Joe Wieland R 2024 · 4.50 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.50 | 18.6% | 7.3% | 3.7% | .359 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 270 | 69 |
| Hiram Burgos R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.11 | 16.3% | 9.1% | 2.2% | .330 | 5.14 | 19.3% | 11.8% | 62 | +1.03 | 3.49 | 355 | 68 |
| Matt Buschmann R 2029 · 3.92 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.92 | 17.2% | 8.7% | 2.1% | .282 | 4.71 | 12.8% | 4.4% | 142 | +0.79 | 3.92 | 277 | 68 |
| Omar Bencomo R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.38 | 18.9% | 6.3% | 3.8% | .333 | 4.43 | 14.9% | 10.1% | 186 | +0.05 | 3.67 | 381 | 67 |
| Hector Noesí R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 67 |
| Marco Antonio Duarte R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.02 | 15.5% | 9.1% | 1.9% | .306 | 4.58 | 9.0% | -1.2% | 38 | +0.56 | 4.02 | 203 | 67 |
| Patrick Johnson R 2025 · 3.52 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.52 | 17.3% | 6.9% | 1.8% | .286 | 4.03 | 15.7% | 6.4% | 120 | +0.51 | 3.52 | 248 | 67 |
| Hector Velázquez R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.56 | 18.0% | 6.6% | 2.1% | .251 | 4.23 | 16.7% | 7.4% | 158 | +0.67 | 2.82 | 536 | 66 |
| Andrew Cashner R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.77 | 20.5% | 8.0% | 2.5% | .326 | 4.61 | 15.0% | 5.7% | 452 | +0.84 | 3.77 | 786 | 66 |
| Matt Shoemaker R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.51 | 20.4% | 5.8% | 4.4% | .280 | 3.83 | 21.8% | 15.9% | 269 | -0.68 | 3.24 | 592 | 66 |
| Shawn Haviland R 2027 · 3.93 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.93 | 14.6% | 6.0% | 2.4% | .303 | 4.49 | 16.1% | 8.8% | 169 | +0.56 | 3.57 | 283 | 66 |
| Antonio Guzman R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.94 | 21.3% | 8.7% | 2.8% | .292 | 3.99 | 19.5% | 7.8% | 118 | +0.05 | 3.22 | 254 | 65 |
| Fabio Castillo R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.00 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 195 | 65 |
| Chris Tillman R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.95 | 19.6% | 9.1% | 2.5% | .277 | 6.04 | 12.2% | 0.4% | 144 | +2.09 | 3.95 | 489 | 65 |
| Jason Forjet R 2024 · 4.39 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.39 | 15.9% | 5.5% | 3.5% | .260 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 197 | 65 |
| Tim Atherton R 2023 · 3.73 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.73 | 16.2% | 8.6% | 1.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 101 | 65 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 110 | 21.1% | 8.7% | 1.19 | 4.39 |
| James Kaprielian ('23) | 3 | 105 | 20.5% | 9.6% | 1.26 | 4.58 |
| Tyler Skaggs ('19) | 4 | 85 | 22.9% | 8.2% | 1.09 | 4.24 |
| Jaime García ('18) | 4 | 135 | 19.6% | 8.5% | 1.05 | 4.23 |
| Kyle Wright ('23) | 3 | 83 | 22.4% | 8.9% | 1.12 | 3.97 |
| Jason Vargas ('19) | 4 | 116 | 18.5% | 8.2% | 1.38 | 4.57 |
| Félix Hernández ('19) | 5 | 134 | 20.0% | 8.1% | 1.39 | 4.48 |