Dustin May
P
St. Louis Cardinals
+0.9
WAR
Age 28
RHP
6'6" / 180 lbs
MLB
Svc 7.0 · Ctrl thru 2027
peak 1.0 · 2026
ERA4.53
FIP4.62
xFIP3.99
SIERA3.98
K%21.3%
BB%9.1%
K-BB%12.2%
IP119
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.0peak
2026
K†5555
FB Velo
p8496.9
Whiff%
p1014.5%
K%
p2718.9%
xwOBA vs
p340.330
CT+2.0 (20%)
SI (18%)
CU (8%)
CH-2.2 (8%)
FB-3.4 (45%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 18 | ROK | AZL Dodgers | 10 | 6 | 30 | 135 | 34 | 4 | 0 | 17.1% | 3.7% | 0.0% | 3.86 | 2.12 | +1.0 |
| 2017 | 19 | A+ | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | 25 | 24 | 134 | 566 | 128 | 27 | 8 | 15.9% | 5.8% | 2.0% | 3.63 | 3.62 | +2.6 |
| 2018 | 20 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | 23 | 23 | 133 | 552 | 122 | 29 | 9 | 17.2% | 5.9% | 1.9% | 3.39 | 3.45 | +2.8 |
| 2019 | 21 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 34 | 24 | 141 | 588 | 142 | 34 | 7 | 20.9% | 6.2% | 1.4% | 3.44 | 2.90 | +3.9 |
| 2020 | 22 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 12 | 10 | 56 | 224 | 44 | 16 | 9 | 19.6% | 7.1% | 3.8% | 2.57 | 4.41 | +0.3 |
| 2021 | 23 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 5 | 5 | 23 | 93 | 35 | 6 | 4 | 37.6% | 6.5% | 3.6% | 2.74 | 2.70 | +0.6 |
| 2022 | 24 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 12 | 12 | 51 | 213 | 65 | 20 | 5 | 28.2% | 9.9% | 2.5% | 3.35 | 3.33 | +0.9 |
| 2023 | 25 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 9 | 9 | 48 | 187 | 34 | 16 | 1 | 18.2% | 8.6% | 0.5% | 2.62 | 2.93 | +1.1 |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 25 | 23 | 132 | 584 | 123 | 53 | 21 | 21.1% | 9.1% | 3.5% | 4.96 | 4.40 | +1.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 4 | 4 | 19 | 84 | 15 | 4 | 2 | 17.9% | 4.8% | 2.4% | 6.98 | 3.50 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | STL | 17 | 17 | 91 | 386 | 82 | 32 | 12 | 21.1% | 8.3% | 3.1% | 4.14 | 4.09 | +1.2 |
| 2026 Total | 28 | MLB | STL | — | — | 111 | 470 | 97 | 36 | 14 | 20.6% | 7.6% | 3.0% | 4.63 | 3.98 | +1.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | STL | 18 | 18 | 101 | 425 | 88 | 35 | 14 | 20.6% | 8.3% | 3.2% | 4.53 | 4.54 | +0.9 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | STL | 17 | 17 | 91 | 383 | 77 | 32 | 12 | 20.1% | 8.4% | 3.2% | 4.59 | 4.63 | +0.6 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | STL | 15 | 15 | 82 | 344 | 67 | 29 | 11 | 19.5% | 8.5% | 3.3% | 4.68 | 4.73 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB | STL | 13 | 13 | 73 | 307 | 64 | 24 | 10 | 20.9% | 7.9% | 3.4% | 4.62 | 4.58 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB | STL | 12 | 12 | 65 | 273 | 55 | 22 | 10 | 20.2% | 8.1% | 3.5% | 4.67 | 4.71 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 34 | MLB | STL | 57 | — | 57 | 242 | 47 | 20 | 9 | 19.5% | 8.2% | 3.6% | 4.78 | 4.85 | +0.1 |
| 2033 | 35 | MLB | STL | 50 | — | 50 | 212 | 40 | 18 | 8 | 18.8% | 8.5% | 3.7% | 4.91 | 5.00 | -0.0 |
| 2034 | 36 | MLB | STL | 44 | — | 44 | 184 | 33 | 16 | 7 | 18.0% | 8.7% | 3.8% | 5.06 | 5.16 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 159 | 140 | 768 | 3226 | 642 | 223 | 71 | 19.9% | 6.9% | 2.2% | 3.69 | 3.50 | +15.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 41 | 36 | 200 | 840 | 167 | 58 | 18 | 19.9% | 6.9% | 2.2% | 3.69 | 3.50 | +4.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Dustin May (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.52 | 22.5% | 9.1% | 3.3% | — | 4.63 | 20.1% | 11.7% | 273 | +0.11 | — | — | — |
| Marco Antonio Duarte R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.06 | 15.5% | 9.1% | 2.0% | .306 | 4.65 | 9.0% | -1.2% | 38 | +0.59 | 4.06 | 203 | 77 |
| Patrick Johnson R 2025 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.89 | 17.3% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .286 | 4.13 | 15.7% | 6.4% | 120 | +0.24 | 3.89 | 248 | 76 |
| David Phelps R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.95 | 16.0% | 6.8% | 2.4% | .299 | 2.78 | 29.9% | 20.6% | 142 | -1.17 | 2.49 | 373 | 76 |
| Shawn Haviland R 2027 · 3.95 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.95 | 14.6% | 6.0% | 2.4% | .303 | 4.69 | 16.1% | 8.8% | 169 | +0.74 | 3.69 | 283 | 75 |
| Jose Pina R 2027 · 4.86 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.86 | 16.9% | 9.2% | 3.7% | .231 | 3.67 | 13.6% | 6.9% | 246 | -1.19 | 3.65 | 424 | 75 |
| Jason Berken R 2029 · 4.36 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.36 | 13.5% | 6.6% | 2.9% | .315 | 4.51 | 11.5% | 3.2% | 106 | +0.15 | 4.36 | 219 | 75 |
| Jacob Turner R 2025 · 4.43 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.43 | 14.9% | 8.8% | 2.7% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 340 | 74 |
| Scott McGregor R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.41 | 11.8% | 7.6% | 2.4% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.41 | 107 | 74 |
| Hector Noesí R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.38 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 250 | 74 |
| Luke Irvine R 2025 · 4.31 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.31 | 13.4% | 9.8% | 2.0% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 104 | 73 |
| Frank Batista R 2024 · 4.27 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.27 | 12.1% | 8.2% | 2.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.27 | 118 | 73 |
| Cesar Carrillo R 2029 · 4.16 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.16 | 13.8% | 9.7% | 1.8% | .307 | 4.46 | 12.6% | 2.6% | 145 | +0.30 | 4.16 | 325 | 73 |
| Colin Bates R 2025 · 4.57 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.57 | 10.5% | 6.5% | 2.8% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.57 | 111 | 73 |
| Odrisamer Despaigne R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.34 | 12.6% | 5.3% | 3.0% | .289 | 3.82 | 15.5% | 7.0% | 329 | -0.52 | 3.14 | 593 | 73 |
| Hector Galvan R 2026 · 4.97 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.97 | 11.2% | 8.5% | 3.2% | .307 | 4.27 | 13.2% | 3.1% | 162 | -0.70 | 3.59 | 406 | 72 |
| Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.37 | 14.6% | 9.8% | 2.3% | .311 | 3.92 | 17.3% | 6.4% | 44 | -0.45 | 3.92 | 272 | 72 |
| Jeremy Kehrt R 2027 · 3.38 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.38 | 15.2% | 5.3% | 1.6% | .297 | 4.25 | 12.1% | 3.9% | 143 | +0.87 | 3.38 | 262 | 72 |
| Andres Ivan Meza R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.41 | 10.9% | 5.6% | 2.8% | .322 | 4.14 | 12.5% | 4.0% | 85 | -0.27 | 4.14 | 275 | 72 |
| Felipe Arredondo R 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.93 | 12.8% | 4.5% | 2.5% | .355 | 4.36 | 16.0% | 9.1% | 153 | +0.43 | 3.93 | 337 | 72 |
| Caleb Clay R 2025 · 4.67 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.67 | 9.9% | 6.9% | 2.8% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.67 | 111 | 71 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status FA
MLB Debut 2019
Service 7.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2027
First FA Year 2028
DEF 10%
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Ext / FA-deal | $12M | +1.0 | $8M | -$4M |
| 2027 | Ext / FA-deal | $20M | +0.9 | $4M | -$16M |
| Totals | $32M | $12M | -$20M | ||