Dustin May — OGILVIE

Dustin May P Milwaukee Brewers

Age 28 RHP 6'6" / 180 lbs MLB Svc 6.0 · Ctrl thru 2026 peak 1.6 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION138 act + 13 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 108100vR 92

ERA3.84

FIP3.91

K%22.4%

BB%8.3%

K-BB%14.1%

ROS IP13

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 151 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—60

STUF4055

CTRL4550

CMD4550

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p8496.9

Whiff%

p3423.0%

p5322.8%

xwOBA vs

p450.317

CT+2.0 (23%)

SI (19%)

CU (7%)

CH-2.2 (6%)

FB-3.4 (44%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2019

Service 6.343 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

OPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$1M	+0.3	$1M	-$0.0M
Totals		$1M		$1M	-$0.0M

Options · projected decision
2027	MUTUAL OPT	$12.5M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2028	MUTUAL OPT	$20.0M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	18	ROK MLE	AZL Dodgers	10	6	30	135	34	4	0	60%	3.0	17.1%	3.7%	13.4%	0.0%	3.86	2.12	—
2016	18	ROK RAW	AZL Dodgers	10	6	30	135	34	4	0	60%	3.0	25.2%	3.0%	22.2%	0.0%	3.86	1.25	—
2017	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	24	134	566	128	27	8	96%	5.4	15.9%	5.8%	10.1%	2.0%	3.63	3.62	—
2017	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	24	134	566	128	27	8	96%	5.4	22.6%	4.8%	17.8%	1.4%	3.63	2.57	—
2018	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	133	552	122	29	9	100%	5.8	17.2%	5.9%	11.3%	1.9%	3.39	3.45	—
2018	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	23	133	552	122	29	9	100%	5.8	22.1%	5.3%	16.8%	1.6%	3.39	2.80	—
2019	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	34	24	141	588	142	34	7	71%	4.2	20.9%	6.2%	14.7%	1.4%	3.44	2.92	+3.5
2019	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	34	24	141	588	142	34	7	71%	4.2	24.1%	5.8%	18.4%	1.2%	3.44	2.46	+4.4
2020	22	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	12	10	56	224	44	16	9	83%	4.7	19.6%	7.1%	12.5%	3.9%	2.57	4.46	+0.3
2020	22	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	12	10	56	224	44	16	9	83%	4.7	19.6%	7.1%	12.5%	4.0%	2.57	4.47	+0.3
2021	23	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	5	5	23	93	35	6	4	100%	4.6	37.6%	6.5%	31.2%	4.1%	2.74	3.00	+0.5
2021	23	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	5	5	23	93	35	6	4	100%	4.6	37.6%	6.5%	31.2%	4.3%	2.74	3.10	+0.5
2022	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	12	12	51	213	65	20	5	100%	4.2	28.2%	9.9%	18.3%	2.5%	3.35	3.32	+1.0
2022	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	12	12	51	213	65	20	5	100%	4.2	30.5%	9.4%	21.1%	2.3%	3.35	3.00	+1.2
2023	25	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	9	9	48	187	34	16	1	100%	5.3	18.2%	8.6%	9.6%	0.5%	2.62	2.93	+1.2
2023	25	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	9	9	48	187	34	16	1	100%	5.3	18.2%	8.6%	9.6%	0.5%	2.62	2.93	+1.2
2023	25	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	9	9	48	187	34	16	1	100%	5.3	18.2%	8.6%	9.6%	0.5%	2.62	2.95	+1.2
2025	27	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	25	23	132	584	123	53	21	92%	5.3	21.1%	9.1%	12.0%	3.7%	4.96	4.50	+0.6
2025	27	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	25	23	132	584	123	53	21	92%	5.3	21.1%	9.1%	12.0%	3.7%	4.96	4.50	+0.6
2025	27	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	25	23	132	584	123	53	21	92%	5.3	21.1%	9.1%	12.0%	3.6%	4.96	4.51	+0.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			99	85	462	1940	430	156	51	86%	4.7	22.2%	8.0%	14.1%	2.6%	4.05	3.69	+6.8
▸ 2026 season
YTD	28	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	28	28	138	584	133	46	11	100%	4.9	22.8%	7.9%	14.9%	1.8%	4.49	3.16	+3.0
YTD	28	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	28	28	138	584	133	46	11	100%	4.9	22.8%	7.9%	14.9%	1.8%	4.49	3.16	+3.0
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	28	MLB RAW	MIL	28	28	138	584	133	46	11	100%	4.9	22.8%	7.9%	14.9%	1.9%	4.49	3.21	+2.9
SO FAR	28	MLB RAW	MIL	28	28	138	584	133	46	11	100%	4.9	22.8%	7.9%	14.9%	1.9%	4.49	3.21	+2.9
ROS	28	MLB MLE	MIL	2	2	13	54	12	4	2	100%	6.3	22.4%	8.3%	14.1%	3.0%	3.84	3.91	+0.1
ROS	28	MLB CTX	MIL	2	2	13	55	12	5	2	100%	6.5	22.4%	8.3%	14.1%	3.2%	3.93	4.00	+0.2
2026 TOT	28	MLB MLE	MIL	—	—	151	638	145	50	13	—	—	22.7%	7.9%	14.8%	2.0%	4.44	3.22	+3.1
FULL	28	MLB A+C	MIL	—	—	151	638	145	50	13	—	—	22.7%	7.9%	14.8%	2.0%	4.44	3.27	+3.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	MIL	19	19	114	480	104	41	13	100%	6.0	21.7%	8.5%	13.2%	2.7%	4.13	4.22	+0.9
2028	30	MLB MLE	MIL	18	18	107	451	95	40	13	100%	5.9	21.0%	8.8%	12.2%	2.9%	4.31	4.43	+0.6
2029	31	MLB MLE	MIL	17	17	100	421	85	39	13	100%	5.9	20.3%	9.2%	11.1%	3.1%	4.52	4.66	+0.3
2030	32	MLB MLE	MIL	15	15	92	389	76	37	13	100%	6.1	19.5%	9.6%	9.9%	3.4%	4.76	4.91	-0.0
2031	33	MLB MLE	MIL	14	14	85	357	67	36	13	100%	6.0	18.6%	10.0%	8.6%	3.7%	5.02	5.19	-0.3
2027	29	MLB CTX	MIL	19	19	114	481	105	41	14	100%	6.0	21.7%	8.5%	13.2%	2.9%	4.20	4.29	+0.9
2028	30	MLB CTX	MIL	18	18	107	452	95	40	14	100%	5.9	21.0%	8.8%	12.2%	3.1%	4.39	4.51	+0.6
2029	31	MLB CTX	MIL	17	17	100	422	86	39	14	100%	5.9	20.3%	9.2%	11.1%	3.3%	4.61	4.75	+0.3
2030	32	MLB CTX	MIL	15	15	92	388	76	37	14	100%	6.1	19.5%	9.6%	9.9%	3.6%	4.85	5.00	-0.0
2031	33	MLB CTX	MIL	14	14	85	359	67	36	14	100%	6.1	18.6%	10.0%	8.6%	3.9%	5.12	5.29	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		184	170	972	4092	869	353	122	92%	5.3	21.2%	8.6%	12.6%	3.0%	4.33	4.03	+10.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		38	35	200	842	179	73	25	92%	5.3	21.2%	8.6%	12.6%	3.0%	4.33	4.03	+2.1
Career	—	MLE		183	164	887	3726	760	265	81	90%	4.8	20.4%	7.1%	13.3%	2.2%	3.74	3.48	+8.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		41	37	200	840	171	60	18	90%	4.8	20.4%	7.1%	13.3%	2.2%	3.74	3.48	+1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dustin May (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.67	21.5%	9.0%	3.4%	—	4.43	21.1%	12.2%	320	-0.24	—	—	—
Chase Anderson R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	28	SP	4.83	18.5%	8.2%	4.1%	.285	4.25	21.3%	13.3%	438	-0.58	3.30	1,146	77
Chris Tillman R 2016 · 3.92 FIP	28	SP	3.92	19.6%	9.1%	2.4%	.277	5.96	12.2%	0.4%	144	+2.04	3.92	489	70
Joe Wieland R 2016 · 4.27 FIP	26	SP	4.27	18.6%	7.3%	3.3%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	3.38	270	69
David Phelps R 2015 · 3.94 FIP	28	SP	3.94	16.0%	6.8%	2.4%	.299	2.82	29.9%	20.6%	142	-1.12	2.50	373	69
Charlie Morton R 2015 · 3.63 FIP	31	SP	3.63	17.9%	6.3%	2.3%	.302	3.22	27.7%	18.9%	331	-0.41	2.52	1,534	69
Taylor Jungmann R 2017 · 3.88 FIP	27	SP-	3.88	18.8%	11.1%	1.8%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	435	69
Brad Peacock R 2016 · 3.97 FIP	28	SP-	3.97	20.9%	8.7%	2.8%	.302	3.45	29.4%	20.4%	289	-0.52	2.97	533	69
Mitch Atkins R 2016 · 3.65 FIP	30	SP-	3.65	21.4%	8.2%	2.4%	.341	4.77	14.3%	6.2%	78	+1.12	3.65	205	69
Hiram Burgos R 2016 · 4.08 FIP	28	SP	4.08	16.3%	9.1%	2.2%	.330	4.94	19.3%	11.8%	62	+0.86	3.40	355	68
JC Ramírez R 2017 · 4.47 FIP	28	SP	4.47	16.9%	7.7%	3.3%	.287	5.48	12.2%	2.1%	41	+1.01	3.75	369	68
Jesse Hahn R 2017 · 3.66 FIP	28	SP	3.66	16.6%	9.7%	1.3%	.327	2.19	29.2%	16.9%	17	-1.47	2.19	426	68
Matt Buschmann R 2015 · 4.03 FIP	31	SP	4.03	17.2%	8.7%	2.3%	.282	4.84	12.8%	4.4%	142	+0.81	4.03	277	68
Marco Antonio Duarte R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	28	SP	4.07	15.5%	9.1%	2.0%	.306	4.73	9.0%	-1.2%	38	+0.66	4.07	203	67
Hector Noesí R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	17.6%	8.1%	3.2%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	250	67
Nathan Eovaldi R 2018 · 3.49 FIP	28	SP	3.49	22.2%	4.2%	3.2%	.283	3.44	25.1%	19.2%	298	-0.05	2.44	1,378	67
Patrick Johnson R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	27	SP-	3.82	17.3%	6.9%	2.4%	.286	4.14	15.7%	6.4%	120	+0.32	3.82	248	67
Omar Bencomo R 2017 · 4.50 FIP	28	SP-	4.50	18.9%	6.3%	4.0%	.333	4.48	14.9%	10.1%	186	-0.02	3.70	381	67
Hector Velázquez R 2017 · 3.65 FIP	28	SP-	3.65	18.0%	6.6%	2.2%	.251	4.28	16.7%	7.4%	158	+0.63	2.75	536	66
Andrew Cashner R 2015 · 3.64 FIP	28	SP	3.64	20.5%	8.0%	2.3%	.326	4.59	15.0%	5.7%	452	+0.95	3.64	786	66
Matt Shoemaker R 2015 · 4.38 FIP	28	SP	4.38	20.4%	5.8%	4.1%	.280	3.74	21.8%	15.9%	269	-0.64	3.17	592	66

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.1	103	20.6%	9.2%	1.23	4.53
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Tyler Skaggs ('19)	1.7	85	22.9%	8.2%	1.09	4.24
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36