Luis Oviedo prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Luis Oviedo P Columbus Clippers

Age 27 RHP 6'5" / 250 lbs AAA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 70 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129121vR 113

ERA5.15

FIP5.04

K%21.9%

BB%13.7%

K-BB%8.3%

ROS IP70

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL2020

CMD3030

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4794.3

Whiff%

p6527.7%

p4321.1%

xwOBA vs

p100.369

FB-6.9

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	17	ROK MLE	DSL Indians	14	14	63	271	56	17	1	100%	4.5	14.1%	7.8%	6.2%	0.5%	4.00	3.19	—
2016	17	ROK RAW	DSL Indians	14	14	63	271	56	17	1	100%	4.5	20.7%	6.3%	14.4%	0.4%	4.00	2.34	—
2017	18	ROK MLE	AZL Indians	14	7	52	249	70	22	2	50%	3.7	19.1%	11.0%	8.1%	1.1%	7.14	3.50	—
2017	18	ROK RAW	AZL Indians	14	7	52	249	70	22	2	50%	3.7	28.1%	8.8%	19.3%	0.8%	7.14	2.17	—
2018	19	A MLE	Lake County Captains	2	2	9	36	6	7	0	100%	4.5	16.7%	19.4%	-2.8%	0.0%	3.00	4.16	—
2018	19	A RAW	Lake County Captains	2	2	9	36	6	7	0	100%	4.5	16.7%	19.4%	-2.8%	0.0%	3.00	4.10	—
2019	20	A MLE	Lake County Captains	19	19	87	380	72	40	6	100%	4.6	14.0%	12.4%	1.6%	2.1%	5.38	4.63	—
2019	20	A RAW	Lake County Captains	19	19	87	380	72	40	6	100%	4.6	18.9%	10.5%	8.4%	1.6%	5.38	3.72	—
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	4	39	191	42	31	5	15%	1.5	21.1%	17.0%	4.1%	2.9%	8.61	5.09	-0.2
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	4	39	191	42	31	5	15%	1.5	22.0%	16.2%	5.8%	2.6%	8.61	5.01	-0.2
2022	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	9	60	284	62	47	10	32%	2.1	18.1%	17.2%	1.0%	3.8%	5.43	5.82	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	28	9	60	284	62	47	10	32%	2.1	21.8%	16.5%	5.3%	3.5%	5.43	5.56	—
2023	24	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	42	0	62	286	60	39	4	0%	1.5	18.0%	12.3%	5.8%	1.5%	4.82	3.95	—
2023	24	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	42	0	62	286	60	39	4	0%	1.5	18.0%	12.3%	5.8%	1.5%	4.82	3.95	—
2023	24	AAA RAW	Columbus Clippers	42	0	62	286	60	39	4	0%	1.5	21.0%	13.6%	7.3%	1.4%	4.82	3.89	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			22	1	30	147	31	25	4	5%	1.3	21.1%	17.0%	4.1%	2.7%	8.80	5.29	-0.3
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	27	MLB	CLE	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.9%	13.7%	8.3%	3.1%	5.15	5.04	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	CLE	65	0	68	287	63	38	9	0%	1.0	22.0%	13.4%	8.6%	3.2%	5.07	5.06	-0.4
2028	29	MLB MLE	CLE	62	0	65	274	59	36	9	0%	1.0	21.5%	13.3%	8.2%	3.3%	5.10	5.16	-0.4
2027	28	MLB CTX	CLE	28	0	29	122	27	16	4	0%	1.0	22.0%	13.4%	8.6%	3.2%	5.07	5.06	-0.2
2028	29	MLB CTX	CLE	36	0	38	160	34	21	5	0%	1.1	21.5%	13.3%	8.2%	3.3%	5.10	5.16	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		86	1	97	430	92	63	13	1%	1.1	21.5%	14.6%	6.9%	3.1%	6.22	4.81	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		178	2	200	889	190	130	27	1%	1.1	21.5%	14.6%	6.9%	3.1%	6.22	4.81	-0.6
Career	—	MLE		145	55	371	1697	288	219	33	38%	2.6	17.0%	12.9%	4.1%	1.9%	5.58	4.36	-1.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		78	30	200	916	156	118	18	38%	2.6	17.0%	12.9%	4.1%	1.9%	5.58	4.36	-1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Oviedo (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.04	21.9%	13.7%	3.1%	—	5.11	21.7%	8.4%	133	+0.07	—	—	—
Fernando Cruz R 2015 · 5.29 FIP	25	SU	5.29	15.6%	12.2%	3.6%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	2.50	371	70
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.35	15.0%	3.8%	156	+0.89	4.46	215	70
Taylor Grover R 2017 · 4.93 FIP	26	SW	4.93	20.0%	10.9%	3.9%	.320	4.89	16.2%	8.9%	14	-0.04	3.68	239	70
Roberto Gómez R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	27	SW	3.95	18.4%	8.9%	2.3%	.315	5.25	13.8%	4.9%	18	+1.30	3.95	115	69
Ryan Watson R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	25	SW	4.93	17.9%	10.5%	3.7%	.321	3.46	22.4%	15.6%	157	-1.47	3.11	416	69
Jarret Whorff R 2023 · 4.24 FIP	24	SW	4.24	19.5%	14.2%	1.8%	.287	4.34	19.4%	10.8%	193	+0.10	3.88	257	68
Jay Flaa R 2019 · 4.66 FIP	27	SU	4.66	19.4%	9.8%	3.6%	.300	4.86	22.8%	4.7%	36	+0.20	3.59	273	68
Cody Sedlock R 2022 · 4.21 FIP	27	SW	4.21	20.1%	13.0%	2.1%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.21	378	68
Sean Isaac R 2018 · 4.20 FIP	25	SW	4.20	24.2%	16.3%	2.0%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	155	68
Tyler Yates R 2004 · 4.47 FIP	26	SW	4.47	15.4%	9.6%	2.6%	.333	3.64	22.5%	13.5%	116	-0.83	3.23	248	67
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	66
Jake Stinnett R 2019 · 4.23 FIP	27	SW	4.23	21.1%	12.2%	2.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.88	356	66
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	66
Derek Gordon R 2016 · 4.62 FIP	25	SW	4.62	19.9%	9.3%	3.7%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	4.62	146	65
Andrew Bash R 2023 · 4.61 FIP	26	SW	4.61	17.9%	12.7%	2.6%	.249	4.02	17.4%	7.8%	231	-0.59	3.46	483	65
Adam Quintana R 2019 · 4.17 FIP	27	SW	4.17	18.6%	11.7%	2.1%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	1.72	201	65
Luke Farrell R 2018 · 4.25 FIP	27	SW	4.25	24.9%	11.7%	3.2%	.269	4.62	22.1%	10.6%	25	+0.37	3.69	584	65
Wil Jensen R 2023 · 4.88 FIP	25	SU	4.88	20.2%	12.1%	3.5%	.284	3.48	22.7%	14.3%	84	-1.40	3.48	368	65
Cory Abbott R 2023 · 4.88 FIP	27	SW	4.88	23.5%	11.9%	4.1%	.300	5.04	22.1%	12.8%	151	+0.16	3.86	703	65
Noah Denoyer R 2023 · 5.24 FIP	25	SW	5.24	22.2%	14.0%	4.1%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.26	181	65

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.2	58	21.7%	14.1%	1.20	5.58
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Paul Spoljaric ('00)	1.4	69	22.1%	12.9%	1.33	5.52
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82