Kervin Castro
P
Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders
Age 27
RHP
5'10" / 234 lbs
AAA
peak 0.2 · 2026
ILReassigned to Minors (RM)
2026 ROS PROJECTION27 act + 38 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116107vR 98
ERA4.10
FIP4.26
K%24.3%
BB%11.1%
K-BB%13.2%
ROS IP38
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 65 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p2592.7
Whiff%
p3823.6%
K%
p3019.3%
xwOBA vs
p100.363
FB-1.7
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 17 | ROK | DSL Giants | 13 | 0 | 21 | 93 | 25 | 12 | 0 | 0% | 1.6 | 18.3% | 16.1% | 2.2% | 0.0% | 4.71 | 3.60 | — |
| 2016 | 17 | ROK | DSL Giants | 13 | 0 | 21 | 93 | 25 | 12 | 0 | 0% | 1.6 | 26.9% | 12.9% | 14.0% | 0.0% | 4.71 | 2.43 | — |
| 2018 | 19 | ROK | DSL Giants | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 50.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 2.04 | — |
| 2018 | 19 | ROK | DSL Giants | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 50.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 2.10 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 0 | 57 | 239 | 73 | 25 | 3 | 0% | 1.4 | 27.5% | 10.9% | 16.6% | 1.4% | 2.20 | 2.92 | +1.1 |
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 0 | 57 | 239 | 73 | 25 | 3 | 0% | 1.4 | 30.5% | 10.5% | 20.1% | 1.3% | 2.20 | 2.54 | +1.3 |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 47 | 0 | 58 | 259 | 61 | 37 | 7 | 0% | 1.2 | 21.2% | 14.9% | 6.4% | 2.8% | 5.55 | 4.75 | -0.1 |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 47 | 0 | 58 | 259 | 61 | 37 | 7 | 0% | 1.2 | 23.6% | 14.3% | 9.3% | 2.7% | 5.55 | 4.47 | +0.1 |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | 10 | 0 | 16 | 65 | 19 | 9 | 0 | 0% | 1.6 | 25.7% | 14.5% | 11.2% | 0.0% | 2.30 | 2.77 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | 10 | 0 | 16 | 65 | 19 | 9 | 0 | 0% | 1.6 | 29.2% | 13.8% | 15.4% | 0.0% | 2.30 | 2.40 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | 35 | 0 | 47 | 190 | 52 | 20 | 1 | 0% | 1.3 | 24.1% | 11.1% | 13.0% | 0.5% | 1.53 | 2.75 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | 35 | 0 | 47 | 190 | 52 | 20 | 1 | 0% | 1.3 | 27.4% | 10.5% | 16.8% | 0.5% | 1.53 | 2.44 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | New York Yankees | 20 | 0 | 27 | 103 | 26 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.4 | 22.2% | 6.6% | 15.6% | 2.3% | 2.30 | 3.33 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | NYY | 36 | 0 | 38 | 160 | 39 | 18 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.3% | 11.1% | 13.2% | 2.6% | 4.10 | 4.26 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | NYY | 36 | 0 | 38 | 160 | 39 | 18 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.3% | 11.1% | 13.2% | 2.6% | 4.10 | 4.26 | +0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | NYY | — | — | 65 | 263 | 65 | 24 | 6 | — | — | 24.7% | 9.1% | 15.6% | 2.3% | 3.35 | 3.87 | +0.6 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | NYY | — | — | 40 | 169 | 65 | 24 | 6 | — | — | 38.5% | 14.1% | 24.4% | 3.6% | 5.47 | 3.64 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | NYY | 55 | 0 | 58 | 244 | 59 | 27 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.1% | 11.1% | 13.0% | 2.7% | 4.25 | 4.35 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | NYY | 52 | 0 | 55 | 233 | 55 | 26 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.5% | 11.2% | 12.3% | 2.9% | 4.40 | 4.50 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | NYY | 49 | 0 | 52 | 219 | 50 | 25 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.8% | 11.4% | 11.4% | 3.1% | 4.58 | 4.70 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | NYY | 52 | 0 | 55 | 232 | 56 | 26 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.1% | 11.1% | 13.0% | 2.7% | 4.25 | 4.35 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | NYY | 50 | 0 | 52 | 220 | 52 | 25 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.5% | 11.2% | 12.3% | 2.9% | 4.40 | 4.50 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | NYY | 47 | 0 | 49 | 207 | 47 | 24 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.8% | 11.4% | 11.4% | 3.1% | 4.58 | 4.70 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 206 | 0 | 222 | 942 | 220 | 102 | 26 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.4% | 10.8% | 12.6% | 2.8% | 4.41 | 4.03 | +3.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 186 | 0 | 200 | 848 | 198 | 92 | 23 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.4% | 10.8% | 12.6% | 2.8% | 4.41 | 4.03 | +3.2 | ||
| Career | — | 166 | 0 | 228 | 953 | 225 | 118 | 14 | 0% | 1.4 | 23.6% | 12.4% | 11.3% | 1.5% | 3.16 | 3.48 | +5.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 146 | 0 | 200 | 837 | 198 | 104 | 12 | 0% | 1.4 | 23.6% | 12.4% | 11.3% | 1.5% | 3.16 | 3.48 | +4.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Kervin Castro (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.26 | 24.3% | 11.1% | 2.6% | — | 4.51 | 23.5% | 12.3% | 165 | +0.25 | — | — | — |
| JT Chargois R 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.47 | 24.4% | 9.9% | 2.2% | .282 | 3.53 | 25.9% | 17.5% | 108 | +0.06 | 2.59 | 362 | 81 |
| Heath Hembree R 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.69 | 21.1% | 7.2% | 2.7% | .292 | 3.96 | 27.3% | 18.8% | 162 | +0.27 | 2.67 | 382 | 81 |
| Greg Holland R 2028 · 3.21 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.21 | 25.4% | 13.0% | 1.1% | .316 | 3.35 | 26.4% | 14.2% | 104 | +0.14 | 1.97 | 268 | 80 |
| Matt Barnes R 2026 · 3.22 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.22 | 28.9% | 9.8% | 2.4% | .296 | 2.98 | 36.3% | 24.3% | 149 | -0.24 | 2.50 | 495 | 79 |
| Nolan Hoffman R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.06 | 24.3% | 12.9% | 2.5% | .312 | 2.94 | 24.4% | 13.1% | 29 | -1.12 | 2.94 | 267 | 78 |
| James Bourque R 2025 · 4.18 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.18 | 25.7% | 13.3% | 2.8% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.35 | 312 | 78 |
| James Sherfy R 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.49 | 27.1% | 10.8% | 2.4% | .355 | 5.06 | 19.0% | 12.7% | 15 | +1.57 | 2.61 | 271 | 77 |
| José Cisnero R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.40 | 26.1% | 11.7% | 3.7% | .367 | 4.02 | 24.5% | 13.3% | 75 | -0.38 | 2.28 | 279 | 77 |
| Taylor Williams R 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.64 | 24.2% | 8.9% | 2.6% | .309 | 4.33 | 22.5% | 12.7% | 108 | +0.69 | 2.59 | 309 | 77 |
| Dugan Darnell R 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.40 | 23.4% | 9.5% | 2.0% | .368 | 3.12 | 25.3% | 16.7% | 54 | -0.28 | 2.35 | 238 | 76 |
| Blake Treinen R 2026 · 3.10 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.10 | 23.2% | 9.3% | 1.4% | .314 | 2.59 | 26.4% | 19.2% | 223 | -0.51 | 1.51 | 544 | 76 |
| JD Hammer R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.12 | 27.0% | 11.9% | 3.3% | .312 | 5.51 | 14.7% | 1.5% | 85 | +1.39 | 1.72 | 285 | 76 |
| Blake Smith R 2026 · 3.08 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.08 | 23.3% | 10.5% | 1.1% | .290 | 3.66 | 22.4% | 13.8% | 71 | +0.58 | 3.08 | 124 | 75 |
| Kyle Keller R 2025 · 3.66 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.66 | 28.7% | 9.4% | 3.3% | .293 | 4.69 | 28.0% | 17.8% | 52 | +1.03 | 2.67 | 296 | 75 |
| Jay Flaa R 2026 · 4.92 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.92 | 19.4% | 9.8% | 4.0% | .300 | 4.86 | 22.8% | 4.7% | 36 | -0.06 | 3.52 | 273 | 75 |
| Ryan Garton R 2026 · 3.71 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.71 | 25.2% | 11.3% | 2.4% | .252 | 4.13 | 23.5% | 10.8% | 108 | +0.42 | 3.15 | 307 | 74 |
| Ty Adcock R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.84 | 21.3% | 10.3% | 2.2% | .405 | 4.57 | 21.0% | 12.4% | 37 | +0.73 | 3.84 | 102 | 74 |
| Connor Sadzeck R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.25 | 25.2% | 13.1% | 2.9% | .238 | 4.61 | 22.7% | 10.8% | 94 | +0.36 | 3.22 | 549 | 74 |
| Michael Tonkin R 2026 · 3.33 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.33 | 29.2% | 9.6% | 2.7% | .309 | 6.08 | 21.8% | 8.3% | 22 | +2.75 | 2.33 | 480 | 74 |
| Seth Simmons R 2026 · 3.06 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.06 | 23.8% | 9.7% | 1.4% | .277 | 4.93 | 16.6% | 7.6% | 175 | +1.87 | 3.06 | 251 | 73 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 51 | 23.7% | 11.2% | 1.10 | 4.34 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Keegan Thompson ('24) | 4 | 57 | 23.0% | 11.3% | 1.19 | 3.64 |
| Lucas Sims ('24) | 6 | 47 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 1.24 | 4.22 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |