Kervin Castro — OGILVIE

Kervin Castro P Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders

Age 27 RHP 5'10" / 234 lbs AAA peak 0.3 · 2027 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 59 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10496vR 88

ERA3.61

FIP3.73

K%23.4%

BB%9.4%

K-BB%13.9%

ROS IP60

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 36 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL4545

CMD5050

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2592.7

Whiff%

p3823.6%

p3019.3%

xwOBA vs

p100.363

FB-1.7

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	17	ROK MLE	DSL Giants	13	0	21	93	25	12	0	0%	1.6	18.3%	16.1%	2.2%	0.0%	4.71	3.60	—
2016	17	ROK RAW	DSL Giants	13	0	21	93	25	12	0	0%	1.6	26.9%	12.9%	14.0%	0.0%	4.71	2.43	—
2018	19	ROK MLE	DSL Giants	1	0	1	4	2	1	0	0%	1.0	50.0%	25.0%	25.0%	0.0%	0.00	2.04	—
2018	19	ROK RAW	DSL Giants	1	0	1	4	2	1	0	0%	1.0	50.0%	25.0%	25.0%	0.0%	0.00	2.10	—
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	57	239	73	25	3	0%	1.4	27.5%	10.9%	16.6%	1.4%	2.20	2.92	+1.1
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	0	57	239	73	25	3	0%	1.4	30.5%	10.5%	20.1%	1.3%	2.20	2.54	+1.4
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	0	58	259	61	37	7	0%	1.2	21.2%	14.9%	6.4%	2.9%	5.55	4.79	-0.2
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	47	0	58	259	61	37	7	0%	1.2	23.6%	14.3%	9.3%	2.7%	5.55	4.47	+0.1
2023	24	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	10	0	16	65	19	9	0	0%	1.6	24.3%	12.5%	11.8%	0.0%	2.30	2.63	—
2023	24	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	10	0	16	65	19	9	0	0%	1.6	24.3%	12.5%	11.8%	0.0%	2.30	2.63	—
2023	24	AAA RAW	Toledo Mud Hens	10	0	16	65	19	9	0	0%	1.6	29.2%	13.8%	15.4%	0.0%	2.30	2.40	—
2025	26	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	35	0	47	190	52	20	1	0%	1.3	22.7%	9.5%	13.2%	0.5%	1.53	2.68	—
2025	26	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	35	0	47	190	52	20	1	0%	1.3	22.7%	9.5%	13.2%	0.5%	1.53	2.68	—
2025	26	AAA RAW	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	35	0	47	190	52	20	1	0%	1.3	27.4%	10.5%	16.8%	0.5%	1.53	2.44	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			25	0	32	136	32	12	3	0%	1.3	23.5%	8.8%	14.7%	2.2%	4.22	3.44	+0.4
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	28	0	36	135	40	8	2	0%	1.3	23.7%	4.8%	18.9%	2.0%	1.73	2.79	—
YTD	27	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	28	0	36	135	40	8	2	0%	1.3	23.7%	4.8%	18.9%	2.0%	1.73	2.79	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	AAA RAW	NYY	23	0	30	112	32	6	2	0%	1.3	28.6%	5.4%	23.2%	1.8%	1.80	2.35	—
2026	27	MLB RAW	NYY	5	0	6	23	8	2	0	0%	1.3	34.8%	8.7%	26.1%	0.0%	1.42	1.26	—
SO FAR	27	MLB RAW	NYY	5	0	6	23	8	2	0	0%	1.3	34.8%	8.7%	26.1%	0.0%	1.42	1.26	—
ROS	27	MLB MLE	NYY	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	23.4%	9.4%	13.9%	2.6%	3.61	3.73	—
ROS	27	MLB CTX	NYY	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	23.4%	9.4%	13.9%	2.6%	3.61	3.73	—
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	NYY	—	—	36	135	40	8	2	—	—	29.6%	5.9%	23.7%	1.5%	1.73	2.79	+0.8
FULL	27	MLB A+C	NYY	—	—	6	27	40	8	2	—	—	149.6%	29.9%	119.7%	7.5%	9.95	-1.64	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	NYY	55	0	58	244	58	24	6	0%	1.0	23.9%	9.8%	14.1%	2.6%	4.05	4.13	+0.3
2028	29	MLB MLE	NYY	52	0	55	233	54	23	6	0%	1.1	23.3%	10.0%	13.3%	2.8%	4.21	4.31	+0.2
2027	28	MLB CTX	NYY	52	0	55	232	56	23	6	0%	1.1	23.9%	9.8%	14.1%	2.6%	4.05	4.13	+0.3
2028	29	MLB CTX	NYY	50	0	52	220	51	22	6	0%	1.0	23.3%	10.0%	13.3%	2.8%	4.21	4.31	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		127	0	139	588	139	57	15	0%	1.1	23.6%	9.7%	14.0%	2.6%	4.15	3.75	+1.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		183	0	200	846	200	82	22	0%	1.1	23.6%	9.7%	14.0%	2.6%	4.15	3.75	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		174	0	237	985	231	113	15	0%	1.4	23.4%	11.5%	11.9%	1.5%	3.04	3.39	+0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		147	0	200	832	195	96	12	0%	1.4	23.4%	11.5%	11.9%	1.5%	3.04	3.39	+1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kervin Castro (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.16	23.3%	9.8%	2.6%	—	4.22	23.6%	13.7%	113	+0.06	—	—	—
Heath Hembree R 2016 · 3.74 FIP	27	SU	3.74	21.1%	7.2%	2.8%	.292	4.03	27.3%	18.8%	162	+0.29	2.58	382	85
JT Chargois R 2018 · 3.36 FIP	27	SU	3.36	24.4%	9.9%	2.0%	.282	3.48	25.9%	17.5%	108	+0.12	2.58	362	81
Dugan Darnell R 2023 · 4.64 FIP	26	SU	4.64	22.6%	9.6%	4.1%	.302	3.25	23.1%	15.4%	94	-1.39	2.50	238	79
Jay Flaa R 2019 · 4.66 FIP	27	SU	4.66	19.4%	9.8%	3.6%	.300	4.86	22.8%	4.7%	36	+0.20	3.59	273	79
Taylor Williams R 2018 · 3.52 FIP	27	SU	3.52	24.2%	8.9%	2.4%	.309	4.35	22.5%	12.7%	108	+0.83	2.51	309	78
R.J. Alvarez R 2018 · 3.01 FIP	27	SU	3.01	21.0%	8.0%	1.2%	.306	4.64	24.0%	12.9%	89	+1.63	3.01	302	78
Blake Treinen R 2015 · 3.10 FIP	27	SU	3.10	23.2%	9.3%	1.4%	.314	2.62	26.4%	19.2%	223	-0.48	1.53	547	78
Greg Holland R 2015 · 3.21 FIP	29	SU	3.21	25.4%	13.0%	1.1%	.316	3.45	26.4%	14.2%	104	+0.24	1.97	268	78
James Sherfy R 2019 · 3.62 FIP	27	SU	3.62	27.1%	10.8%	2.6%	.355	4.80	19.0%	12.7%	15	+1.18	2.64	271	77
Richard Rodríguez R 2017 · 3.03 FIP	27	SU	3.03	24.7%	6.3%	2.2%	.279	3.45	28.4%	22.2%	158	+0.42	2.23	545	77
Matt Barnes R 2017 · 3.27 FIP	27	SU	3.27	28.9%	9.8%	2.5%	.296	3.03	36.3%	24.3%	149	-0.24	2.54	495	77
James Bourque R 2019 · 4.15 FIP	26	SU	4.15	25.7%	13.3%	2.8%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	312	77
Blake Smith R 2015 · 3.17 FIP	27	SU	3.17	23.3%	10.5%	1.3%	.290	3.59	22.4%	13.8%	71	+0.42	3.17	124	76
Matt Ramsey R 2017 · 3.25 FIP	27	SU	3.25	24.2%	9.6%	1.8%	.330	3.21	23.6%	14.6%	81	-0.04	2.42	125	76
Austin Ross R 2016 · 3.81 FIP	27	SU	3.81	22.9%	8.0%	3.0%	.295	3.67	12.4%	5.2%	127	-0.14	3.16	269	76
Kevin Quackenbush R 2016 · 3.87 FIP	27	SU	3.87	18.3%	7.2%	2.5%	.271	3.60	24.8%	17.1%	160	-0.27	2.32	334	76
Jaye Chapman R 2015 · 3.32 FIP	28	SU	3.32	21.6%	8.5%	1.8%	.276	4.08	20.3%	11.3%	85	+0.76	3.25	150	76
Seth Simmons R 2015 · 3.07 FIP	27	SU	3.07	23.8%	9.7%	1.4%	.277	4.87	16.6%	7.6%	175	+1.80	3.07	251	76
Brandon Brennan R 2018 · 3.42 FIP	27	SU	3.42	19.9%	8.1%	1.8%	.263	3.81	21.7%	12.0%	85	+0.39	3.11	403	75
Simon Castro R 2015 · 3.28 FIP	27	SU	3.28	26.4%	8.5%	2.4%	.320	3.58	26.0%	17.6%	128	+0.30	3.01	185	75

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	56	23.5%	9.9%	1.03	4.10
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Cory Gearrin ('19)	1.1	57	21.5%	9.8%	0.79	3.42
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68
Derek Law ('24)	1.5	60	21.5%	8.9%	0.88	3.47
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64