Kervin Castro
P
Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders
+0.3
WAR
Age 27
RHP
5'10" / 234 lbs
AAA
peak 0.3 · 2026
ERA4.02
FIP4.02
xFIP4.71
SIERA4.56
K%23.8%
BB%10.2%
K-BB%13.6%
IP36
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2026
STUF5555
CTRL4545
CMD5050
K†5555
FB Velo
p2592.7
Whiff%
p3823.6%
K%
p3019.3%
xwOBA vs
p100.363
FB-1.7
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 17 | ROK | DSL Giants | 13 | 0 | 21 | 93 | 25 | 12 | 0 | 18.3% | 16.1% | 0.0% | 4.71 | 3.60 | +0.3 |
| 2018 | 19 | ROK | DSL Giants | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 40 | 0 | 57 | 239 | 73 | 25 | 3 | 27.5% | 10.9% | 1.4% | 2.20 | 2.92 | +1.3 |
| 2022 | 23 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 47 | 0 | 58 | 259 | 61 | 37 | 7 | 21.2% | 14.9% | 2.9% | 5.55 | 4.80 | +0.1 |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | 10 | 0 | 16 | 65 | 19 | 9 | 0 | 25.7% | 14.5% | 0.0% | 2.30 | 2.77 | +0.4 |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | 35 | 0 | 47 | 190 | 52 | 20 | 1 | 24.1% | 11.1% | 0.6% | 1.53 | 2.77 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | 6 | 0 | 7 | 29 | 4 | 4 | 1 | — | — | — | 3.68 | — | — |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | NYY | 36 | — | 36 | 152 | 36 | 16 | 4 | 23.9% | 10.5% | 2.6% | 4.05 | 4.22 | +0.3 |
| 2026 Total | 27 | MLB | NYY | — | — | 43 | 181 | 40 | 20 | 5 | 22.3% | 11.0% | 2.7% | 3.99 | 3.51 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | NYY | 36 | — | 36 | 150 | 36 | 16 | 4 | 23.8% | 10.4% | 2.7% | 4.18 | 4.26 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | NYY | 35 | — | 35 | 147 | 34 | 15 | 4 | 23.3% | 10.4% | 2.8% | 4.27 | 4.34 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | NYY | 34 | — | 34 | 143 | 32 | 15 | 4 | 22.8% | 10.4% | 2.8% | 4.36 | 4.43 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | NYY | 33 | — | 33 | 138 | 31 | 14 | 4 | 22.2% | 10.5% | 2.9% | 4.46 | 4.53 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | NYY | 31 | — | 31 | 132 | 28 | 14 | 4 | 21.6% | 10.7% | 3.0% | 4.57 | 4.64 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | NYY | 30 | — | 30 | 126 | 26 | 14 | 4 | 20.9% | 10.8% | 3.1% | 4.69 | 4.77 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 152 | 0 | 208 | 879 | 206 | 115 | 13 | 23.5% | 13.1% | 1.5% | 3.29 | 3.58 | +4.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 146 | 0 | 200 | 847 | 198 | 111 | 13 | 23.5% | 13.1% | 1.5% | 3.29 | 3.58 | +3.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Kervin Castro (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.22 | 23.9% | 10.5% | 2.6% | — | 4.34 | 23.3% | 12.9% | 104 | +0.12 | — | — | — |
| JT Chargois R 2026 · 3.35 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.35 | 24.4% | 9.9% | 1.9% | .282 | 3.49 | 25.9% | 17.5% | 108 | +0.14 | 2.57 | 362 | 81 |
| Greg Holland R 2028 · 3.19 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.19 | 25.4% | 13.0% | 1.1% | .316 | 3.45 | 26.4% | 14.2% | 104 | +0.26 | 1.94 | 268 | 80 |
| Heath Hembree R 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.69 | 21.1% | 7.2% | 2.7% | .292 | 4.09 | 27.3% | 18.8% | 162 | +0.40 | 2.67 | 382 | 79 |
| José Cisnero R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.50 | 26.1% | 11.7% | 3.9% | .367 | 3.92 | 24.5% | 13.3% | 75 | -0.58 | 2.26 | 279 | 77 |
| Dugan Darnell R 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.53 | 23.4% | 9.5% | 2.2% | .368 | 3.14 | 25.3% | 16.7% | 54 | -0.39 | 2.49 | 238 | 77 |
| Matt Ramsey R 2026 · 3.21 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.21 | 24.2% | 9.6% | 1.7% | .330 | 3.20 | 23.6% | 14.6% | 81 | -0.01 | 2.42 | 125 | 76 |
| Matt Barnes R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.43 | 28.9% | 9.8% | 2.8% | .296 | 3.02 | 36.3% | 24.3% | 149 | -0.41 | 2.49 | 495 | 76 |
| JD Hammer R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.09 | 27.0% | 11.9% | 3.2% | .312 | 5.61 | 14.7% | 1.5% | 85 | +1.52 | 1.72 | 285 | 75 |
| Taylor Williams R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.48 | 24.2% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .309 | 4.33 | 22.5% | 12.7% | 108 | +0.85 | 2.36 | 309 | 75 |
| James Sherfy R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.60 | 27.1% | 10.8% | 2.6% | .355 | 4.46 | 19.0% | 12.7% | 15 | +0.86 | 2.64 | 271 | 75 |
| Nolan Hoffman R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.99 | 24.3% | 12.9% | 2.4% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.03 | 239 | 75 |
| Jay Flaa R 2026 · 4.70 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.70 | 19.4% | 9.8% | 3.6% | .300 | 4.86 | 22.8% | 4.7% | 36 | +0.16 | 3.62 | 273 | 74 |
| James Bourque R 2025 · 4.15 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.15 | 25.7% | 13.3% | 2.8% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.36 | 312 | 74 |
| Connor Sadzeck R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.23 | 25.2% | 13.1% | 2.9% | .238 | 4.62 | 22.7% | 10.8% | 94 | +0.39 | 3.21 | 549 | 73 |
| Blake Smith R 2026 · 3.18 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.18 | 23.3% | 10.5% | 1.3% | .290 | 3.63 | 22.4% | 13.8% | 71 | +0.45 | 3.18 | 124 | 73 |
| Pedro Garcia R 2026 · 3.29 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.29 | 22.9% | 9.1% | 1.8% | .276 | 6.26 | 27.5% | 9.3% | 50 | +2.97 | 2.80 | 155 | 73 |
| Brooks Kriske R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.81 | 28.6% | 12.1% | 4.7% | .261 | 4.45 | 30.7% | 16.5% | 88 | -0.36 | 3.04 | 230 | 72 |
| Joe Colón J R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.30 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.5% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.24 | 113 | 72 |
| Maikel Cleto R 2026 · 3.42 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.42 | 27.9% | 9.9% | 2.6% | .301 | 3.61 | 23.6% | 14.3% | 70 | +0.19 | 2.59 | 156 | 72 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2028 · 4.33 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.33 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.6% | .241 | 3.99 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.34 | 3.47 | 149 | 72 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.