Cristian Pache

CF Syracuse Mets

Age 28 R/R 6'2" / 215 lbs AAA H -5% Svc 1.582 · Ctrl thru 2031

Overview

AAA40-MANPre-ArbFA 2032

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	25	MLBMIA	183	.200/.275/.279	1	1	64	0.0
2025	26	AAAARI	288	.251/.351/.389	5	8	70	—	.218/.295/.327
2026	27	AAANYM	355	.232/.289/.356	5	16	43	—	.199/.243/.293
2027PROJ45% MLB	28	MLBNYM	105	.184/.247/.286	2	4	54	-0.2
2028PROJ48% MLB	29	MLBNYM	116	.182/.244/.280	2	4	51	-0.4

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.0 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2031Service1.582First FA2032

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Ext$0.2M2030Ext$0.4M2031Ext$0.6M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2022-2024

Speed76

Avg EV58

Bat Spd54

Barrel%21

xwOBA17

CompsLogan Warmoth (age 28) · Max Burt (age 27) · Connor Kaiser (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 5854vR 42

AVG/OBP/SLG.184 / .247 / .286

PA105

HR2

K%34

BB%7

BABIP269

ISO115

MLB%45%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$2M ctrl surplus

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 35 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2022-2024

CONTACT35

xAVG

100.219

POWER40

Barrel%

214.5

Avg EV

5889.7

Bat Spd

5471.7

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED60

Sprint

7628.5

Platoon Splits2024 · 183 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

130

—

wRC+

◀◀L

wOBA

277

190

◀◀L

ISO

112

—

BABIP

315

321

—

32.3%

41.5%

◀◀L

BB%

10.8%

5.7%

◀◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2021

Service 1.582 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2016	17	ROK	Danville Braves	—	236	220	68	4	7	0	13	24	1	11	5	309	350	391	741	82	345	10	6	330	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	18	A	Rome Braves	—	514	469	132	13	8	0	39	104	0	32	14	281	337	343	680	62	360	20	8	306	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	AA	Mississippi Braves	—	109	104	27	3	1	1	5	28	0	0	2	260	294	337	630	77	347	26	5	284	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	A+	Florida Fire Frogs	—	387	369	105	20	5	8	15	69	0	7	6	285	312	431	743	146	330	18	4	326	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	INTL	Peoria Javelinas	—	94	86	24	3	2	0	6	18	0	3	0	279	326	360	687	81	348	19	6	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	AAA	Gwinnett Stripers	—	105	95	26	8	1	1	9	18	0	0	0	274	337	411	747	137	329	17	9	331	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	AA	Mississippi Braves	—	433	392	109	28	8	11	34	104	4	8	11	278	342	474	816	196	351	24	8	357	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	21	INTL	Estrellas Orientales	—	30	25	3	1	0	0	4	6	0	0	1	120	241	160	401	40	158	20	13	196	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	68	63	7	3	0	1	2	25	1	0	0	111	152	206	358	95	162	37	3	159	-7	-9	+0	+1	+2	+1	-0.5
2021	22	AAA	Gwinnett Stripers	—	353	321	85	15	0	11	30	97	1	9	7	265	330	414	744	150	347	27	8	332	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	260	241	40	5	2	3	15	70	1	2	2	166	218	241	459	75	220	27	6	209	29	-22	-0	+3	+2	+6	-1.2
2022	23	AAA	Las Vegas Aviators	—	171	157	39	8	1	4	11	39	1	1	1	248	302	389	690	140	302	23	6	305	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	INTL	Estrellas Orientales	—	66	55	12	4	0	0	7	10	1	1	1	218	317	291	608	73	255	15	11	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	—	95	84	20	7	1	2	10	27	0	2	3	238	319	417	736	179	327	28	11	324	105	+1	-1	+2	+1	+2	0.4
2023	24	AAA	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	60	51	12	2	0	1	8	13	1	3	1	235	350	333	683	98	297	22	13	319	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	A	Clearwater Threshers	—	15	11	3	0	0	0	4	4	0	0	0	273	467	273	739		429	27	27	367	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	MLB	Miami Marlins	—	183	165	33	8	1	1	17	64	0	1	0	200	275	279	554	79	317	35	9	255	64	-8	+0	+3	+1	+4	0.0
2024	25	INTL	Tigres del Licey	—	16	13	2	0	1	0	2	7	0	0	0	154	267	308	574	154	286	44	12	245	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	AAA	Reno Aces	—	288	247	62	15	2	5	34	77	4	8	2	251	351	389	740	138	345	27	12	332	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	27	AAA	Syracuse Mets	—	355	323	75	17	4	5	20	113	6	16	3	232	289	356	645	124	340	32	6	286	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	606	553	100	23	4	7	44	186	2	5	5	181	244	275	519	94	258	31	7	235	45	-39	-1	+10	+5	+13	-1.3
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2016	17	ROK MLE	Danville Braves	—	236	225	59	3	5	0	8	34	1	11	5	262	291	320	611	58	305	14	3	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	18	A MLE	Rome Braves	—	514	484	116	10	7	0	24	149	0	32	14	240	276	289	565	50	338	29	5	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	AA MLE	Mississippi Braves	—	109	106	25	3	1	1	3	35	0	0	2	236	257	311	568	75	330	32	3	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	A+ MLE	Florida Fire Frogs	—	387	375	97	18	4	7	10	102	0	7	6	259	278	384	662	125	330	26	3	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	—	105	98	24	7	1	1	6	23	0	0	0	245	288	367	656	122	305	22	6	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	AA MLE	Mississippi Braves	—	433	402	95	27	7	10	24	130	4	8	11	236	286	413	699	177	318	30	6	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	68	63	7	3	0	1	2	25	1	0	0	111	152	206	358	95	162	37	3	159	-7	-9	+0	+1	+2	+1	-0.5
2021	22	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	—	353	329	73	12	0	8	22	119	1	9	7	222	273	331	604	109	320	34	6	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	260	241	40	5	2	3	15	70	1	2	2	166	218	241	459	75	220	27	6	211	29	-22	-0	+3	+2	+6	-1.2
2022	23	AAA MLE	Las Vegas Aviators	—	171	160	36	6	1	3	8	46	1	1	1	225	266	331	598	106	289	27	5	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	95	84	20	7	1	2	10	27	0	2	3	238	319	417	736	179	327	28	11	323	105	+1	-1	+2	+1	+2	0.4
2023	24	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	60	53	11	2	0	1	6	16	1	3	1	208	300	302	602	94	269	27	10	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	—	15	12	3	0	0	0	3	5	0	0	0	250	400	250	650		396	33	20	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	—	183	165	34	9	1	1	17	64	0	1	0	206	280	291	571	85	317	35	9	263	64	-8	+0	+3	+1	+4	0.0
2025	26	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	288	257	56	12	2	4	24	90	4	8	2	218	295	327	622	109	310	31	8	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	27	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	—	355	331	66	14	4	3	13	136	6	16	3	199	243	293	536	94	313	38	4	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	17	ROK MLE	Danville Braves	—	236	225	59	3	5	0	8	34	1	11	5	262	291	320	611	58	307	14	3	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	17	ROK RAW	Danville Braves	—	236	220	68	4	7	0	13	24	1	11	5	309	350	391	741	82	345	10	6	330	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	18	A MLE	Rome Braves	—	514	484	116	10	7	0	24	149	0	32	14	240	276	289	565	50	344	29	5	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	18	A RAW	Rome Braves	—	514	469	132	13	8	0	39	104	0	32	14	281	337	343	680	62	360	20	8	306	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	590	570	142	24	5	9	16	163	0	10	8	249	270	356	626	107	332	28	3	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	590	559	156	26	8	9	26	115	0	10	8	279	311	403	713	123	336	19	4	314	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	AA MLE	2 teams	—	538	500	119	34	8	11	30	153	4	8	11	238	287	404	691	166	320	28	6	296	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	AA RAW	2 teams	—	538	487	135	36	9	12	43	122	4	8	11	277	341	462	803	185	346	23	8	352	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	21	INTL MLE	Estrellas Orientales	—	30	25	3	1	0	0	4	6	0	0	1	120	241	160	401	40	158	20	13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	21	INTL RAW	Estrellas Orientales	—	30	25	3	1	0	0	4	6	0	0	1	120	241	160	401	40	158	20	13	196	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	421	392	80	15	0	9	24	144	2	9	7	204	254	311	565	107	297	34	6	245	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	421	384	92	18	0	12	32	122	2	9	7	240	301	380	682	141	320	29	8	304	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	497	459	88	13	4	7	27	134	3	4	4	192	241	283	525	92	252	27	5	230	42	-34	-1	+3	+2	+11	-2.0
2022	23	MLB RAW	3 teams	—	497	453	91	17	3	7	33	119	3	4	4	201	260	298	558	97	254	24	7	250	42	-34	-1	+3	+2	+11	-2.0
2023	24	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	170	149	34	9	1	3	19	48	1	5	4	228	320	362	682	134	316	28	11	296	87	-3	-1	+2	+1	+4	0.3
2023	24	MLB RAW	3 teams	—	170	146	35	9	1	3	22	44	1	5	4	240	343	377	720	137	323	26	13	326	87	-3	-1	+2	+1	+4	0.3
2024	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	199	179	36	9	1	1	18	70	0	1	0	201	274	279	553	78	318	35	9	263	64	-8	+0	+3	+1	+4	-0.0
2024	25	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	199	178	35	8	2	1	19	71	0	1	0	197	274	281	555	84	315	36	10	254	64	-8	+0	+3	+1	+4	-0.0
2025	26	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	288	257	56	12	2	4	24	90	4	8	2	218	295	327	622	109	319	31	8	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	AAA RAW	Reno Aces	—	288	247	62	15	2	5	34	77	4	8	2	251	351	389	740	138	345	27	12	332	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	27	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	—	355	331	66	14	4	3	13	136	6	16	3	199	243	293	536	94	326	38	4	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	27	AAA RAW	Syracuse Mets	—	355	323	75	17	4	5	20	113	6	16	3	232	289	356	645	124	340	32	6	286	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	17	ROK MLE	Danville Braves	—	236	225	59	3	5	0	8	34	1	11	5	262	291	320	611	58	305	14	3	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	18	A MLE	Rome Braves	—	514	485	116	10	7	0	24	149	0	32	14	239	276	289	564	49	338	29	5	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	590	569	142	24	5	9	16	163	0	10	8	250	270	357	626	107	330	28	3	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	AA MLE	2 teams	—	538	499	119	34	8	11	30	153	4	8	11	238	287	405	691	166	315	28	6	296	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	421	392	80	15	0	9	24	144	2	9	7	204	254	311	565	107	295	34	6	245	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	497	464	88	13	4	7	27	134	3	4	4	190	241	280	521	91	248	27	5	230	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	170	148	34	9	1	3	19	48	1	5	4	230	320	365	684	135	313	28	11	296	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	199	179	36	9	1	1	18	70	0	1	0	201	274	279	553	78	317	35	9	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	288	258	56	12	2	4	24	90	4	8	2	217	295	326	620	109	310	31	8	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	27	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	—	355	333	66	14	4	3	13	136	6	16	3	198	243	291	534	93	313	38	4	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	199	179	36	9	1	1	18	70	0	1	0	201	274	279	553	78	317	35	9	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	288	258	56	12	2	4	24	90	4	8	2	217	295	326	620	109	310	31	8	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	27	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	—	355	333	66	14	4	3	13	136	6	16	3	198	243	291	534	93	313	38	4	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	28	MLB MLE	NYM	45%	344	315	59	12	2	5	22	117	4	14	3	190	252	294	547	105	278	34	6	248	54	-19	+2	+2	+1	+7	-0.7
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	28	MLB CTX	NYM	45%	105	96	18	3	1	2	7	36	1	4	1	184	247	286	533	102	269	34	7	242	54	-6	+0	+1	+0	+2	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	NYM	48%	243	223	42	8	2	4	15	83	3	8	2	187	249	288	538	101	276	34	6	244	51	-14	+1	-0	+1	+5	-0.7
2028	29	MLB CTX	NYM	48%	116	107	20	4	1	2	7	40	1	4	1	182	244	280	524	98	267	34	6	238	51	-7	+0	-0	+0	+3	-0.4
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	722	660	120	27	5	9	51	226	3	9	6	182	244	279	522	97	260	31	7	236	60	-46	-1	+10	+5	+16	-1.7
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	594	108	24	5	8	46	203	3	8	5	182	244	279	524	98	260	31	7	236	60	-42	-1	+9	+5	+14	-1.5
Career	—	MLE		—	4314	4007	882	160	41	55	237	1289	27	121	63	220	268	322	590	102	309	30	5	257	60	-66	+1	+11	+6	+23	-2.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	604	132	24	6	8	36	194	4	18	9	219	267	318	585	99	306	30	6	257	60	-40	+0	+6	+4	+14	-1.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAASyracuse Mets · 355 PAwOBA .278 → .232 (−45)K% 31.8% → 38.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	31.83%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	38.20%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.35%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.992	3.66%
HBP% /PA	1.69%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	1.58%
Singles /BIP	23.33%	÷1.000	×0.930	×1.031	×0.992	22.18%
Doubles /BIP	8.10%	÷1.000	×0.830	×1.031	×0.992	6.87%
Triples /BIP	1.90%	÷1.000	×0.970	×1.031	×0.992	1.89%
Home runs /BIP	2.38%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.992	1.65%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.031.

Result: wOBA .278 → .232; ISO .124 → .097; BABIP .340 → .313. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAReno Aces · 288 PAwOBA .324 → .272 (−53)K% 26.7% → 31.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.74%	÷1.025	×1.200	—	—	31.29%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.81%	÷0.964	×0.690	—	×1.003	8.48%
HBP% /PA	1.39%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	1.31%
Singles /BIP	23.53%	÷0.994	×0.930	×1.001	×1.003	22.10%
Doubles /BIP	8.82%	÷1.069	×0.830	×1.001	×1.003	6.88%
Triples /BIP	1.18%	÷0.902	×0.970	×1.001	×1.003	1.27%
Home runs /BIP	2.94%	÷0.904	×0.700	—	×1.003	2.28%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 99, 2B 114, 3B 80, K 105, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.001.

Result: wOBA .324 → .272; ISO .138 → .112; BABIP .345 → .310. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 60 PAwOBA .311 → .256 (−54)K% 21.7% → 26.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.67%	÷0.996	×1.200	—	—	26.11%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.33%	÷0.982	×0.690	—	×1.033	9.67%
HBP% /PA	1.67%	—	×0.940	—	×1.033	1.62%
Singles /BIP	23.68%	÷1.016	×0.930	—	×1.033	22.39%
Doubles /BIP	5.26%	÷1.117	×0.830	—	×1.033	4.04%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.105	×0.970	—	×1.033	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.63%	÷1.028	×0.700	—	×1.033	1.85%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 103, 2B 123, 3B 121, K 99, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .311 → .256; ISO .098 → .071; BABIP .297 → .269. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AClearwater Threshers · 15 PAwOBA .360 → .288 (−72)K% 26.7% → 35.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.67%	÷1.020	×1.360	—	—	35.54%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	26.67%	÷0.972	×0.690	—	×0.970	18.37%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.780	—	×0.970	0.00%
Singles /BIP	42.86%	÷0.965	×0.920	—	×0.970	39.65%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷1.002	×0.830	—	×0.970	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.056	×0.910	—	×0.970	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×0.970	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 93, 2B 100, 3B 111, K 104, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.0 → −3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .360 → .288; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .429 → .396. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 171 PAwOBA .300 → .260 (−40)K% 22.8% → 27.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.81%	÷1.009	×1.200	—	—	27.12%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.43%	÷0.992	×0.690	—	×1.048	4.69%
HBP% /PA	0.58%	—	×0.940	—	×1.048	0.58%
Singles /BIP	22.03%	÷0.995	×0.930	×1.029	×1.048	22.20%
Doubles /BIP	6.78%	÷1.088	×0.830	×1.029	×1.048	5.58%
Triples /BIP	0.85%	÷0.900	×0.970	×1.029	×1.048	0.98%
Home runs /BIP	3.39%	÷1.075	×0.700	—	×1.048	2.31%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 115, 1B 99, 2B 118, 3B 80, K 102, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.029.

Result: wOBA .300 → .260; ISO .140 → .107; BABIP .302 → .289. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 353 PAwOBA .323 → .262 (−61)K% 27.5% → 33.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.48%	÷0.975	×1.200	—	—	33.81%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.50%	÷1.014	×0.690	—	×1.050	6.07%
HBP% /PA	0.28%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	0.28%
Singles /BIP	26.34%	÷1.011	×0.930	×0.993	×1.050	25.26%
Doubles /BIP	6.70%	÷1.039	×0.830	×0.993	×1.050	5.58%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.920	×0.993	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.91%	÷1.001	×0.700	—	×1.050	3.61%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 102, 2B 108, 3B 130, K 95, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.993.

Result: wOBA .323 → .262; ISO .150 → .108; BABIP .347 → .320. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAMississippi Braves · 433 PAwOBA .348 → .300 (−49)K% 24.0% → 30.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.02%	÷0.975	×1.220	—	—	30.04%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.62%	÷0.967	×0.680	—	×1.050	5.63%
HBP% /PA	0.92%	—	×0.840	—	×1.050	0.81%
Singles /BIP	21.53%	÷1.068	×0.920	×0.950	×1.050	18.49%
Doubles /BIP	9.72%	÷0.906	×0.910	×0.950	×1.050	9.74%
Triples /BIP	2.78%	÷0.900	×0.880	×0.950	×1.050	2.71%
Home runs /BIP	3.82%	÷0.900	×0.800	—	×1.050	3.57%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 114, 2B 81, 3B 80, K 95, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .348 → .300; ISO .196 → .181; BABIP .351 → .318. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 105 PAwOBA .322 → .282 (−40)K% 17.1% → 21.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.14%	÷0.948	×1.200	—	—	21.69%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.57%	÷1.047	×0.690	—	×1.050	5.93%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	0.00%
Singles /BIP	20.78%	÷1.038	×0.930	—	×1.050	19.56%
Doubles /BIP	10.39%	÷0.963	×0.830	—	×1.050	9.40%
Triples /BIP	1.30%	÷1.150	×0.970	—	×1.050	1.15%
Home runs /BIP	1.30%	÷0.899	×0.840	—	×1.050	1.27%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 108, 2B 93, 3B 130, K 90, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .322 → .282; ISO .137 → .124; BABIP .329 → .305. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#2Garrett Hampsonlast yr '25 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,805 PA	2.7	1,805	29	65	234	296	352	+10	+10	3.9	3.9
/162	664	11	24	+3.6	+3.7	1.4	pk7: 4
#3Milt Cuyler'90-'98 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,567 PA	2.4	1,567	10	77	233*	299*	338*	+1	+4	0.6	0.9
/162	664	4	33	+0.6	+1.9	0.3	pk7: 1
#4Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	2.5	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
/162	664	16	13	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
#5Rusty Torres'71-'80 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,522 PA	2.3	1,522	35	13	213*	304*	371*	-8	-6	-0.1	0.6
/162	664	15	6	-3.3	-2.7	-0.0	pk7: 1
#6Joe Simpson'75-'83 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,531 PA	2.3	1,531	9	45	237*	289*	336*	-9	+2	-2.3	-1.8
/162	664	4	20	-4.0	+1.1	-1.0	pk7: -1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	1.2	827	10	13	183	243	280	+2	+8	-2.9	-2.5
/162	664	8	11	+1.5	+6.8	-2.3	pk7: -2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Cristian Pache (OGILVIE)	28	35	40	60	60	188/250/292	104	278	4	9	34%	6%	54	-0.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Logan Warmoth 2024 · AAA	28	41→40	42→40	52→55	43	200/277/305	105	293	10	23	33%	8%	67	-1.1	198/276/285	87	279	8	18	29%	9%	61	-1.5	157/249/194	37	224	3	17	28%	10%	31	-1.7
✕Max Burt 2024 · AAA	27	39→35	45	55	39	200/257/319	119	279	14	22	33%	6%	62	-1.4	182/240/274	92	269	9	24	34%	6%	45	-2.7	162/221/238	76	241	6	29	34%	5%	28	-1.9
✕Connor Kaiser 2024 · AAA	27	40	45	55→50	45	198/275/318	121	285	12	18	33%	9%	69	-0.9	194/273/297	103	301	9	10	35%	9%	63	-1.3	184/267/283	99	288	8	6	36%	9%	55	-1.0
✕Jacob Hannemann 2019 · MLB	28	40→43	41→45	56→60	40	200/250/301	100	262	9	27	27%	5%	55	-2.0	213/271/335	122	269	12	21	25%	6%	70	-0.8	195/265/342	147	221	16	30	20%	8%	70	-0.2
✕Isaac Galloway 2018 · AAA	28	44→42	45	54→55	39	220/264/338	117	289	14	25	29%	5%	69	-0.9	209/256/343	134	284	15	21	31%	5%	68	-1.0	191/236/320	129	258	15	23	32%	4%	52	-1.1
✕Michael O'Neill 2019 · AAA	27	43→41	43→45	55	37	210/262/322	112	299	11	22	32%	5%	64	-1.3	219/267/309	90	320	9	18	32%	5%	63	-1.4	221/264/278	57	330	6	18	33%	5%	50	-1.4
✕Ray-Patrick Didder 2023 · AAA	28	42→49	42→45	53→60	39	203/270/301	98	286	9	22	31%	6%	63	-1.3	185/279/297	112	259	12	28	31%	8%	67	-1.1	158/268/267	109	219	12	34	32%	10%	54	-1.4
✕JJ Muno 2022 · AA	28	38	42→40	54→60	39	189/272/294	105	273	10	21	33%	6%	63	-1.3	204/283/294	90	287	8	27	30%	7%	67	-1.1	189/275/254	65	268	5	39	29%	7%	53	-1.1
✕Kevin Mattison 2014 · AAA	28	39→47	42→45	55→60	37	189/247/298	109	293	9	23	37%	6%	53	-2.1	189/248/308	119	316	12	21	41%	6%	56	-1.9	146/208/265	119	242	13	27	44%	6%	30	-1.5
✕Brantley Bell 2023 · AAA	28	42→43	39→40	52→55	41	202/253/287	85	276	6	14	28%	6%	52	-2.2	211/265/320	109	324	10	16	35%	6%	65	-1.2	163/209/244	81	278	5	25	41%	5%	24	-0.8
✕Tanner Kirwer 2023 · AA	27	43	42→40	59→60	45	209/288/304	95	297	11	32	31%	8%	71	-0.8	207/275/301	94	292	9	27	30%	7%	65	-1.2	173/243/241	69	239	8	46	30%	7%	38	-1.1
✕Chris Rabago 2021 · AAA	28	40	41→40	49→55	44	197/257/295	98	265	8	14	28%	7%	56	-1.9	193/260/278	85	288	7	11	33%	7%	53	-2.1	162/233/221	59	250	5	8	35%	7%	28	-1.2
✕Mason McCoy 2024 · AAA	29	39→49	45	58→55	41	196/259/321	125	285	12	22	34%	7%	63	-1.3	207/266/309	102	296	9	26	31%	7%	63	-1.4	210/268/302	92	293	7	30	29%	7%	59	-1.3
✕Chris Roller 2024 · AAA	27	40	45	51→55	46	199/289/321	122	284	12	18	32%	9%	76	-0.4	192/260/312	120	334	13	15	43%	8%	62	-1.4	148/203/249	101	285	11	12	50%	6%	23	-2.7
✕Eric Stamets 2021 · MLB	29	40→50	42→45	56→50	40	199/254/304	105	279	9	15	31%	6%	57	-1.8	180/249/287	107	253	11	13	32%	7%	53	-2.1	128/206/217	88	176	10	13	32%	6%	19	-1.4
✕Jim Haley 2024 · AAA	29	39→43	46→50	57→55	38	200/256/327	127	276	14	20	32%	6%	63	-1.3	214/270/329	115	293	11	20	30%	6%	69	-0.9	203/257/305	102	281	10	25	30%	5%	55	-1.2
✕Adam Engel 2018 · MLB	26	39→48	43→50	57→60	40	195/258/316	120	275	10	24	32%	6%	61	-1.5	222/276/348	126	302	12	17	29%	5%	76	-0.4	223/282/358	135	299	13	23	29%	5%	79	-0.1
✕Drew Jackson 2021 · AAA	28	40→45	43→45	49→55	41	197/268/307	111	285	12	17	34%	7%	64	-1.3	212/297/323	111	327	11	25	35%	9%	78	-0.3	201/295/302	100	316	10	32	36%	10%	71	-0.3
✕Justin Dean 2024 · AAA	27	41→47	41→45	58→65	44	192/279/286	94	305	9	30	37%	9%	63	-1.3	216/286/302	86	321	6	41	32%	8%	69	-0.9	217/286/294	77	315	5	48	30%	8%	64	-0.8
✕Zach Remillard 2022 · AAA	28	39→49	42→40	50→55	40	194/261/292	97	270	11	14	31%	6%	58	-1.7	210/276/295	85	286	7	18	27%	7%	63	-1.3	205/270/278	73	279	6	19	27%	7%	56	-1.2

Cristian Pache

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps