Emmanuel Clase

P Cleveland Guardians

Age 29 RHP 6'2" / 206 lbs MLB Svc 5.0 · Ctrl thru 2027 peak 0.8 · 2027

Overview

MLBRPArb-3FA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR
2023	25	MLBCLE	75	0	73	3.22	2.63	21.2%	4.6%	1.7
2024	26	MLBCLE	74	0	74	0.61	2.04	24.4%	3.3%	2.2
2025	27	MLBCLE	48	0	47	3.23	2.30	23.4%	5.0%	1.3
2026	28	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	29	MLBCLE	55	0	58	3.15	3.15	26.2%	5.0%	1.0
2028PROJ	30	MLBCLE	48	0	50	3.27	3.36	25.5%	5.2%	0.7
2029PROJ	31	MLBCLE	40	0	42	3.46	3.59	24.8%	5.6%	0.5

Last 3 seasons WAR 5.2 · Next 3 projected WAR 2.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service5.058First FA2028Options3

2027Arb-3$4M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025

FB Velo90

xwOBA vs86

K%57

CompsLucas Erceg (age 29) · Jumbo Diaz (age 30) · David Carpenter (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8981vR 73

ERA3.15

FIP3.15

K%26.2%

BB%5.0%

K-BB%21.3%

Proj IP58

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 58 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL6565

CMD6060

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9098.5

Whiff%

p9032.1%

p5723.4%

xwOBA vs

p860.277

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-3

MLB Debut 2019

Service 5.058 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

OPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-3	$4M	+1.0	$8M	+$4M
Totals		$4M		$8M	+$4M

Options · projected decision
2027	CLUB OPT	$28.0M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2028	CLUB OPT	$10.0M / $2.0M buyout	DECLINE
2029	CLUB OPT	$10.0M / $2.0M buyout	DECLINE

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	17	ROK MLE	DSL Padres	13	10	54	238	49	21	1	77%	4.2	14.0%	11.0%	3.0%	0.6%	1.99	3.64	—
2015	17	ROK RAW	DSL Padres	13	10	54	238	49	21	1	77%	4.2	20.6%	8.8%	11.8%	0.4%	1.99	2.70	—
2016	18	ROK MLE	AZL Padres	8	2	25	110	23	12	0	25%	3.1	14.2%	13.6%	0.6%	0.0%	4.01	3.63	—
2016	18	ROK RAW	AZL Padres	8	2	25	110	23	12	0	25%	3.1	20.9%	10.9%	10.0%	0.0%	4.01	2.69	—
2017	19	ROK MLE	AZL Padres 2	9	6	36	174	42	22	4	67%	4.0	16.4%	15.8%	0.6%	3.2%	5.30	5.48	—
2017	19	ROK RAW	AZL Padres 2	9	6	36	174	42	22	4	67%	4.0	24.1%	12.6%	11.5%	2.3%	5.30	4.05	—
2019	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	60	2	68	272	71	15	3	3%	1.1	21.3%	6.0%	15.3%	1.2%	2.65	2.71	+1.5
2019	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	60	2	68	272	71	15	3	3%	1.1	26.1%	5.5%	20.6%	1.1%	2.65	2.25	+1.9
2021	23	MLB MLE	Cleveland Indians	71	0	70	279	74	13	2	0%	1.0	26.5%	4.7%	21.9%	0.7%	1.29	1.84	+2.3
2021	23	MLB RAW	Cleveland Indians	71	0	70	279	74	13	2	0%	1.0	26.5%	4.7%	21.9%	0.7%	1.29	1.91	+2.2
2022	24	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	77	0	73	271	77	8	3	0%	0.9	28.4%	3.0%	25.5%	1.1%	1.36	1.68	+2.5
2022	24	MLB RAW	Cleveland Guardians	77	0	73	271	77	8	3	0%	0.9	28.4%	3.0%	25.5%	1.1%	1.36	1.85	+2.4
2023	25	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	75	0	73	302	64	14	4	0%	1.0	21.2%	4.6%	16.6%	1.3%	3.22	2.63	+1.7
2023	25	MLB RAW	Cleveland Guardians	75	0	73	302	64	14	4	0%	1.0	21.2%	4.6%	16.6%	1.3%	3.22	2.63	+1.7
2024	26	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	74	0	74	270	66	9	2	0%	1.0	24.4%	3.3%	21.1%	0.7%	0.61	1.87	+2.4
2024	26	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	74	0	74	270	66	9	2	0%	1.0	24.4%	3.3%	21.1%	0.7%	0.61	1.87	+2.4
2024	26	MLB RAW	Cleveland Guardians	74	0	74	270	66	9	2	0%	1.0	24.4%	3.3%	21.1%	0.7%	0.61	2.04	+2.2
2025	27	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	48	0	47	201	47	10	2	0%	1.0	23.4%	5.0%	18.4%	1.0%	3.23	2.30	+1.3
2025	27	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	48	0	47	201	47	10	2	0%	1.0	23.4%	5.0%	18.4%	1.0%	3.23	2.30	+1.3
2025	27	MLB RAW	Cleveland Guardians	48	0	47	201	47	10	2	0%	1.0	23.4%	5.0%	18.4%	1.0%	3.23	2.30	+1.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			366	1	360	1417	349	60	15	0%	1.0	24.6%	4.2%	20.4%	1.1%	1.88	2.20	+10.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	CLE	55	0	58	245	64	12	6	0%	1.1	26.2%	5.0%	21.3%	2.3%	3.15	3.15	+1.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	CLE	48	0	50	211	54	11	5	0%	1.0	25.5%	5.2%	20.3%	2.5%	3.27	3.36	+0.7
2029	31	MLB MLE	CLE	40	0	42	179	44	10	5	0%	1.1	24.8%	5.6%	19.2%	2.7%	3.46	3.59	+0.5
2028	30	MLB CTX	CLE	48	0	50	211	54	11	5	0%	1.0	25.5%	5.2%	20.3%	2.5%	3.27	3.36	+0.7
2029	31	MLB CTX	CLE	40	0	42	177	44	10	5	0%	1.1	24.8%	5.6%	19.2%	2.7%	3.46	3.59	+0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		454	1	452	1807	447	81	25	0%	1.0	24.7%	4.5%	20.3%	1.4%	2.18	2.34	+12.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		201	0	200	799	198	36	11	0%	1.0	24.7%	4.5%	20.3%	1.4%	2.18	2.34	+5.3
Career	—	MLE		435	20	519	2117	463	139	23	5%	1.2	21.9%	6.6%	15.3%	1.1%	2.30	2.69	+11.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		168	8	200	815	178	54	9	5%	1.2	21.9%	6.6%	15.3%	1.1%	2.30	2.69	+5.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2019 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 38 IPFIP 1.97 → 2.44 (+0.47)K% 25.5% → 20.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.49%	—	×0.810	20.65%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.23%	—	×1.100	5.75%
HR / BF /BF	0.65%	÷1.208	×1.200	0.65%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 142).

Result: FIP 1.97 → 2.44, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 A+Down East Wood Ducks · 7 IPFIP -0.11 → 0.82 (+0.93)K% 44.0% → 33.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	44.00%	—	×0.770	33.88%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.00%	—	×1.150	4.60%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.152	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 130).

Result: FIP -0.11 → 0.82, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 ROKAZL Padres 2 · 36 IPFIP 3.93 → 5.48 (+1.56)K% 24.1% → 16.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.14%	—	×0.680	16.41%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.64%	—	×1.250	15.80%
HR / BF /BF	2.30%	÷1.000	×1.400	3.22%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.93 → 5.48, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 ROKAZL Padres · 25 IPFIP 2.72 → 3.63 (+0.91)K% 20.9% → 14.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.91%	—	×0.680	14.22%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.91%	—	×1.250	13.64%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.400	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.72 → 3.63, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 ROKDSL Padres · 54 IPFIP 2.71 → 3.64 (+0.93)K% 20.6% → 14.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.59%	—	×0.680	14.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.82%	—	×1.250	11.03%
HR / BF /BF	0.42%	÷1.000	×1.400	0.59%

Result: FIP 2.71 → 3.64, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Emmanuel Clase (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.15	26.2%	5.0%	2.3%	—	3.47	25.2%	19.8%	92	+0.32	—	—	—
Lucas Erceg R 2024 · 2.10 FIP	29	SU	2.10	28.5%	5.5%	1.3%	.280	3.90	17.4%	8.2%	110	+1.80	2.10	351	79
Jumbo Diaz R 2014 · 2.87 FIP	30	SU	2.87	26.1%	7.0%	2.0%	.283	3.64	23.0%	15.0%	186	+0.77	2.80	319	72
David Carpenter R 2014 · 2.84 FIP	29	SU	2.84	25.9%	6.2%	2.1%	.327	4.98	15.8%	5.8%	50	+2.14	2.66	275	71
Hunter Harvey R 2024 · 3.14 FIP	29	SU	3.14	25.1%	6.4%	2.5%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	2.00	269	69
Matt Bush R 2016 · 2.87 FIP	30	SU	2.87	24.7%	6.0%	2.0%	.232	3.94	22.2%	12.7%	75	+1.07	2.87	249	68
Austin Adams R 2016 · 3.40 FIP	29	SU	3.40	21.1%	6.1%	2.4%	.376	5.80	20.8%	10.2%	60	+2.40	3.40	162	66
Héctor Rondón R 2017 · 4.12 FIP	29	SU	4.12	29.1%	8.4%	4.4%	.290	4.00	22.8%	15.1%	140	-0.12	2.21	436	66
Jason Motte R 2011 · 2.22 FIP	29	SU	2.22	23.5%	5.2%	0.8%	.249	4.02	26.9%	20.5%	97	+1.80	2.22	387	66
Kiko Calero R 2004 · 3.05 FIP	29	SU	3.05	28.0%	5.4%	3.0%	.206	3.33	23.1%	14.6%	154	+0.28	2.27	298	66
Akinori Otsuka R 2004 · 2.61 FIP	32	SU	2.61	27.9%	6.4%	1.9%	.251	2.78	20.3%	13.4%	155	+0.17	2.39	232	65
Ryan Brasier R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.09	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.59	2.31	426	65
Jeff Zimmerman R 2001 · 3.58 FIP	28	SU	3.58	26.4%	5.5%	3.7%	.216	—	—	—	—	—	3.58	229	64
Raisel Iglesias R 2019 · 3.36 FIP	29	SU	3.36	31.9%	6.1%	4.0%	.304	2.28	34.8%	30.0%	155	-1.08	1.34	825	64
Blake Treinen R 2017 · 3.15 FIP	29	SU	3.15	22.8%	6.8%	2.0%	.332	2.94	26.6%	18.0%	165	-0.21	1.53	601	64
Jean Machi R 2013 · 2.16 FIP	31	SU	2.16	24.2%	4.3%	1.0%	.295	4.06	18.5%	11.5%	186	+1.90	2.16	306	64
Wilton Lopez R 2012 · 2.51 FIP	29	SU	2.51	20.8%	2.3%	1.6%	.291	3.30	15.0%	10.6%	75	+0.79	2.51	299	64
Will Vest R 2024 · 2.56 FIP	29	SU	2.56	21.8%	5.5%	1.1%	.280	2.78	25.5%	17.8%	95	+0.22	2.56	448	63
Chris Hatcher R 2014 · 2.51 FIP	29	SU	2.51	25.9%	4.7%	1.8%	.325	4.01	25.0%	17.3%	139	+1.50	2.51	246	63
Jake Sanchez R 2019 · 2.83 FIP	29	SU	2.83	23.8%	4.7%	2.1%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	1.86	361	63
JT Chargois R 2019 · 3.63 FIP	28	SU	3.63	27.2%	8.9%	3.1%	.311	3.57	23.1%	15.8%	76	-0.06	2.58	362	63

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.6	57	24.9%	5.0%	0.58	2.29
Jonathan Papelbon ('16)	3.6	60	27.5%	6.3%	0.71	2.44
Roberto Osuna ('20)	1.6	63	28.4%	4.5%	0.80	2.74
Mariano Rivera ('13)	6.4	71	23.0%	5.6%	0.50	2.21
Mark Eichhorn ('82-'96, 19 WAR*)	4.4	81	22.8%*	6.9%*	0.60*	3.00*
Doug Jones ('82-'00, 23 WAR*)	5.6	81	24.1%*	5.0%*	0.81*	3.31*
Jeff Montgomery ('87-'99, 19 WAR*)	4.3	72	26.2%*	7.6%*	1.01*	3.16*