Emmanuel Clase — OGILVIE

Emmanuel Clase P Cleveland Guardians

Age 28 RHP 6'2" / 206 lbs MLB Svc 5.0 · Ctrl thru 2026 peak 0.9 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 4 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8577vR 69

ERA2.96

FIP2.84

K%25.9%

BB%4.5%

K-BB%21.4%

ROS IP4

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 4 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL6565

CMD6060

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9098.5

Whiff%

p9032.1%

p5723.4%

xwOBA vs

p860.277

FB+1.8 (70%)

SL (30%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-3

MLB Debut 2019

Service 5.058 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

OPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.3M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M
Totals		$0.3M		$0.3M	+$0.0M

Options · projected decision
2027	CLUB OPT	$28.0M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2028	CLUB OPT	$10.0M / $2.0M buyout	DECLINE
2029	CLUB OPT	$10.0M / $2.0M buyout	DECLINE

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	17	ROK MLE	DSL Padres	13	10	54	238	49	21	1	77%	4.2	14.0%	11.0%	3.0%	0.6%	1.99	3.64	—
2015	17	ROK RAW	DSL Padres	13	10	54	238	49	21	1	77%	4.2	20.6%	8.8%	11.8%	0.4%	1.99	2.70	—
2016	18	ROK MLE	AZL Padres	8	2	25	110	23	12	0	25%	3.1	14.2%	13.6%	0.6%	0.0%	4.01	3.63	—
2016	18	ROK RAW	AZL Padres	8	2	25	110	23	12	0	25%	3.1	20.9%	10.9%	10.0%	0.0%	4.01	2.69	—
2017	19	ROK MLE	AZL Padres 2	9	6	36	174	42	22	4	67%	4.0	16.4%	15.8%	0.6%	3.2%	5.30	5.48	—
2017	19	ROK RAW	AZL Padres 2	9	6	36	174	42	22	4	67%	4.0	24.1%	12.6%	11.5%	2.3%	5.30	4.05	—
2019	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	60	2	68	272	71	15	3	3%	1.1	21.3%	6.0%	15.3%	1.2%	2.65	2.71	+1.5
2019	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	60	2	68	272	71	15	3	3%	1.1	26.1%	5.5%	20.6%	1.1%	2.65	2.25	+1.9
2021	23	MLB MLE	Cleveland Indians	71	0	70	279	74	13	2	0%	1.0	26.5%	4.7%	21.9%	0.7%	1.29	1.84	+2.3
2021	23	MLB RAW	Cleveland Indians	71	0	70	279	74	13	2	0%	1.0	26.5%	4.7%	21.9%	0.7%	1.29	1.91	+2.2
2022	24	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	77	0	73	271	77	8	3	0%	0.9	28.4%	3.0%	25.5%	1.1%	1.36	1.68	+2.5
2022	24	MLB RAW	Cleveland Guardians	77	0	73	271	77	8	3	0%	0.9	28.4%	3.0%	25.5%	1.1%	1.36	1.85	+2.4
2023	25	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	75	0	73	302	64	14	4	0%	1.0	21.2%	4.6%	16.6%	1.3%	3.22	2.63	+1.7
2023	25	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	75	0	73	302	64	14	4	0%	1.0	21.2%	4.6%	16.6%	1.3%	3.22	2.63	+1.7
2023	25	MLB RAW	Cleveland Guardians	75	0	73	302	64	14	4	0%	1.0	21.2%	4.6%	16.6%	1.3%	3.22	2.63	+1.7
2024	26	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	74	0	74	270	66	9	2	0%	1.0	24.4%	3.3%	21.1%	0.7%	0.61	1.87	+2.4
2024	26	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	74	0	74	270	66	9	2	0%	1.0	24.4%	3.3%	21.1%	0.7%	0.61	1.87	+2.4
2024	26	MLB RAW	Cleveland Guardians	74	0	74	270	66	9	2	0%	1.0	24.4%	3.3%	21.1%	0.7%	0.61	2.04	+2.2
2025	27	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	48	0	47	201	47	10	2	0%	1.0	23.4%	5.0%	18.4%	1.0%	3.23	2.30	+1.3
2025	27	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	48	0	47	201	47	10	2	0%	1.0	23.4%	5.0%	18.4%	1.0%	3.23	2.30	+1.3
2025	27	MLB RAW	Cleveland Guardians	48	0	47	201	47	10	2	0%	1.0	23.4%	5.0%	18.4%	1.0%	3.23	2.30	+1.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			366	1	360	1417	349	60	15	0%	1.0	24.6%	4.2%	20.4%	1.1%	1.88	2.20	+10.2
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	28	MLB	CLE	4	0	4	17	4	1	0	0%	1.0	25.9%	4.5%	21.4%	1.8%	2.96	2.84	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	CLE	44	0	47	197	50	9	4	0%	1.1	25.3%	4.7%	20.6%	1.9%	2.99	3.00	+0.9
2028	30	MLB MLE	CLE	42	0	44	185	45	9	4	0%	1.0	24.6%	5.0%	19.6%	2.1%	3.12	3.21	+0.7
2027	29	MLB CTX	CLE	45	0	47	198	50	9	4	0%	1.0	25.3%	4.7%	20.6%	1.9%	2.99	3.00	+0.9
2028	30	MLB CTX	CLE	42	0	44	186	46	9	4	0%	1.0	24.6%	5.0%	19.6%	2.1%	3.12	3.21	+0.7
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		452	1	450	1799	444	79	23	0%	1.0	24.7%	4.4%	20.3%	1.3%	2.11	2.26	+12.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		201	0	200	799	197	35	10	0%	1.0	24.7%	4.4%	20.3%	1.3%	2.11	2.26	+5.5
Career	—	MLE		435	20	519	2117	463	139	23	5%	1.2	21.9%	6.6%	15.3%	1.1%	2.30	2.69	+11.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		168	8	200	815	178	54	9	5%	1.2	21.9%	6.6%	15.3%	1.1%	2.30	2.69	+5.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Emmanuel Clase (OGILVIE)	—	—	2.84	25.9%	4.5%	1.8%	—	3.10	25.0%	20.1%	90	+0.26	—	—	—
Liam Hendriks R 2017 · 3.30 FIP	28	SU	3.30	28.6%	8.4%	2.8%	.303	1.71	35.2%	30.1%	160	-1.59	0.63	495	70
Scott Oberg R 2018 · 2.54 FIP	28	SU	2.54	24.4%	5.0%	1.6%	.278	3.19	26.0%	16.6%	56	+0.65	2.54	302	68
Héctor Rondón R 2016 · 3.44 FIP	28	SU	3.44	29.0%	4.0%	4.2%	.270	3.83	24.8%	17.0%	177	+0.39	2.42	318	67
Jumbo Diaz R 2015 · 3.16 FIP	31	SU	3.16	25.2%	6.0%	2.6%	.286	3.65	21.9%	12.2%	152	+0.49	2.80	284	66
Mike Broadway R 2015 · 1.74 FIP	28	SU	1.74	27.5%	5.7%	0.4%	.275	4.55	20.4%	10.6%	129	+2.81	1.74	195	66
Hunter Harvey R 2023 · 2.97 FIP	28	SU	2.97	28.5%	5.1%	3.0%	.248	3.14	25.1%	18.7%	51	+0.17	2.00	269	64
Hansel Robles R 2019 · 2.67 FIP	28	SU	2.67	26.5%	5.3%	2.1%	.278	4.57	23.3%	10.8%	128	+1.90	2.67	469	64
Kelvin Herrera R 2018 · 3.83 FIP	28	SU	3.83	20.7%	5.4%	3.3%	.285	3.95	22.6%	15.4%	51	+0.12	2.33	297	64
Heath Hembree R 2017 · 3.84 FIP	28	SU	3.84	25.8%	6.6%	3.8%	.358	4.69	27.2%	17.7%	119	+0.85	2.58	382	64
Chris Hatcher R 2015 · 2.92 FIP	30	SU	2.92	27.1%	6.6%	2.3%	.292	4.67	22.6%	14.0%	137	+1.75	2.92	176	62
Will Vest R 2023 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	28.1%	7.8%	3.6%	.281	2.69	23.9%	17.2%	166	-0.99	2.56	448	62
Ken Giles R 2019 · 2.02 FIP	28	SU	2.02	39.9%	7.7%	2.4%	.298	—	—	—	—	—	1.96	368	62
Raisel Iglesias R 2018 · 3.88 FIP	28	SU	3.88	27.5%	7.9%	3.8%	.227	2.75	34.8%	29.6%	160	-1.13	1.34	820	62
Matt Bush R 2016 · 2.87 FIP	30	SU	2.87	24.7%	6.0%	2.0%	.232	3.94	22.2%	12.7%	75	+1.07	2.87	249	62
Héctor Neris R 2017 · 3.18 FIP	28	SU	3.18	26.9%	7.2%	2.6%	.292	3.02	33.6%	25.0%	156	-0.16	2.03	682	62
Josh Lueke R 2015 · 2.29 FIP	30	SU	2.29	30.0%	4.1%	2.2%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	107	61
Alex Colomé R 2017 · 2.88 FIP	28	SU	2.88	20.6%	5.7%	1.5%	.261	3.37	23.0%	15.3%	151	+0.49	2.72	530	61
Jeurys Familia R 2018 · 2.51 FIP	28	SU	2.51	27.5%	8.9%	1.1%	.302	4.20	24.1%	12.0%	146	+1.69	2.05	455	60
Arquimedes Caminero R 2015 · 3.54 FIP	28	SU	3.54	23.0%	8.5%	2.4%	.265	4.45	17.9%	6.5%	61	+0.91	3.54	173	60
Trevor Rosenthal R 2017 · 2.05 FIP	27	SU	2.05	37.6%	9.9%	1.6%	.330	3.21	33.2%	15.9%	39	+1.16	1.86	196	60

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	46	25.3%	4.7%	0.75	3.02
Roberto Osuna ('19)	1.6	62	28.5%	4.5%	0.81	2.75
Seunghwan Oh ('18)	1.0	69	27.7%	5.9%	1.00	2.78
Richard Rodríguez ('21)	1.1	56	25.0%	6.3%	1.21	3.00
Sean Doolittle ('21)	1.2	49	28.7%	6.2%	1.18	3.31
Craig Stammen ('22)	2.0	66	23.0%	5.4%	1.19	3.36
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97