Emmanuel Clase — OGILVIE

Emmanuel Clase P Cleveland Guardians

+1.2 WAR

Age 28 RHP 6'2" / 206 lbs MLB Svc 7.0 · Ctrl thru 2028 peak 1.2 · 2026

ERA2.80

FIP3.13

xFIP3.60

SIERA3.33

K%23.5%

BB%5.5%

K-BB%18.0%

IP49

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.2peak

2026

K†6565

FB Velo

p9098.5

Whiff%

p9032.1%

p5723.4%

xwOBA vs

p860.277

FB+1.8 (70%)

SL (30%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2015	17	ROK	DSL Padres	13	10	54	238	49	21	1	14.0%	11.0%	0.6%	1.99	3.64	+0.8
2016	18	ROK	AZL Padres	8	2	25	110	23	12	0	14.2%	13.6%	0.0%	4.01	3.63	+0.4
2017	19	ROK	AZL Padres 2	9	6	36	174	42	22	4	16.4%	15.8%	3.2%	5.30	5.48	-0.2
2019	21	MLB	Texas Rangers	60	2	68	272	71	15	3	21.3%	6.0%	1.2%	2.65	2.72	+1.8
2021	23	MLB	Cleveland Indians	71	0	70	279	74	13	2	26.5%	4.7%	0.7%	1.29	1.83	+2.5
2022	24	MLB	Cleveland Guardians	77	0	73	271	77	8	3	28.4%	3.0%	1.3%	1.36	1.76	+2.7
2023	25	MLB	Cleveland Guardians	75	0	73	302	64	14	4	21.2%	4.6%	1.3%	3.22	2.62	+2.0
2024	26	MLB	Cleveland Guardians	74	0	74	270	66	9	2	24.4%	3.3%	0.7%	0.61	1.83	+2.7
2025	27	MLB	Cleveland Guardians	48	0	47	201	47	10	2	23.4%	5.0%	0.9%	3.23	2.28	+1.4
▸ 2026 Season
2026	28	MLB	CLE	49	—	49	206	57	11	4	27.7%	5.5%	1.8%	2.66	2.81	+1.2
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	29	MLB	CLE	48	—	48	201	55	11	4	27.2%	5.6%	1.8%	2.79	2.88	+1.1
2028	30	MLB	CLE	46	—	46	195	52	11	4	26.6%	5.7%	1.9%	2.90	2.97	+1.0
2029	31	MLB	CLE	45	—	45	189	49	11	4	26.0%	5.8%	1.9%	3.01	3.08	+0.9
2030	32	MLB	CLE	43	—	43	181	46	11	4	25.4%	5.9%	2.0%	3.12	3.19	+0.9
2031	33	MLB	CLE	41	—	41	173	43	11	4	24.8%	6.1%	2.1%	3.24	3.32	+0.8
2032	34	MLB	CLE	39	—	39	164	40	10	4	24.1%	6.3%	2.2%	3.37	3.46	+0.7
2033	35	MLB	CLE	37	—	37	155	36	10	4	23.3%	6.5%	2.3%	3.51	3.61	+0.6
2034	36	MLB	CLE	34	—	34	145	33	10	4	22.5%	6.8%	2.4%	3.67	3.78	+0.5
2035	37	MLB	CLE	32	—	32	134	29	9	3	21.7%	7.1%	2.6%	3.84	3.95	+0.4
2036	38	MLB	CLE	29	—	29	124	26	9	3	20.9%	7.4%	2.7%	4.02	4.14	+0.3
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			435	20	519	2117	463	139	23	21.9%	6.6%	1.1%	2.30	2.69	+15.4
/ 200 IP	—			168	8	200	815	178	54	9	21.9%	6.6%	1.1%	2.30	2.69	+5.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Emmanuel Clase (OGILVIE)	—	—	2.81	27.7%	5.5%	1.8%	—	2.97	26.6%	21.0%	139	+0.16	—	—	—
Liam Hendriks R 2026 · 3.09 FIP	28	SW	3.09	28.6%	8.4%	2.4%	.303	1.71	35.2%	30.1%	160	-1.38	0.60	495	66
Mike Broadway R 2026 · 1.74 FIP	28	SW	1.74	27.5%	5.7%	0.4%	.275	4.55	20.4%	10.6%	129	+2.81	1.74	195	65
Jumbo Diaz R 2029 · 3.21 FIP	31	SW	3.21	25.2%	6.0%	2.7%	.286	3.66	21.9%	12.2%	152	+0.45	2.80	284	65
Chris Hatcher R 2028 · 2.93 FIP	30	SU	2.93	27.1%	6.6%	2.3%	.292	4.62	22.6%	14.0%	137	+1.69	2.93	176	64
Josh Fields R 2027 · 1.85 FIP	29	SW	1.85	32.1%	7.7%	0.9%	.298	3.33	25.2%	19.0%	162	+1.48	1.85	238	62
Trevor Rosenthal R 2025 · 2.07 FIP	27	SU	2.07	37.6%	9.9%	1.6%	.330	3.08	33.2%	15.9%	39	+1.01	1.64	196	62
Hunter Harvey R 2026 · 3.01 FIP	28	SW	3.01	28.5%	5.1%	3.0%	.248	3.09	25.1%	18.7%	51	+0.08	1.98	269	61
Héctor Rondón R 2026 · 3.59 FIP	28	SW	3.59	29.0%	4.0%	4.4%	.270	3.71	24.8%	17.0%	177	+0.12	2.33	318	61
Matt Bush R 2028 · 2.88 FIP	30	SW	2.88	24.7%	6.0%	2.0%	.232	3.96	22.2%	12.7%	75	+1.08	2.88	249	60
James Hoyt R 2026 · 1.61 FIP	28	SU	1.61	27.5%	4.5%	0.5%	.348	2.84	32.0%	23.9%	171	+1.23	1.61	312	60
Scott Oberg R 2026 · 2.59 FIP	28	SW	2.59	24.4%	5.0%	1.7%	.278	3.17	26.0%	16.6%	56	+0.58	2.59	302	60
Pedro Strop R 2028 · 2.58 FIP	30	SW	2.58	30.0%	8.5%	1.7%	.211	2.91	26.9%	18.5%	167	+0.33	2.58	277	60
Ken Giles R 2026 · 1.97 FIP	28	SW	1.97	39.9%	7.7%	2.3%	.298	—	—	—	—	—	1.95	368	60
Josh Lueke R 2028 · 2.32 FIP	30	SW	2.32	30.0%	4.1%	2.2%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	2.32	107	60
Arquimedes Caminero R 2026 · 3.38 FIP	28	SW	3.38	23.0%	8.5%	2.1%	.265	4.49	17.9%	6.5%	61	+1.11	3.38	173	60
Justin Miller R 2026 · 2.67 FIP	28	SW	2.67	27.6%	8.0%	1.6%	.248	4.17	22.1%	14.7%	153	+1.50	2.67	279	60
Richard Rodríguez R 2026 · 2.19 FIP	28	SW	2.19	31.5%	5.7%	1.9%	.294	4.21	22.0%	16.7%	153	+2.02	2.19	545	59
Raisel Iglesias R 2026 · 3.74 FIP	28	SW	3.74	27.5%	7.9%	3.6%	.227	2.79	34.8%	29.6%	160	-0.95	1.32	765	59
Nick Anderson R 2026 · 3.55 FIP	28	SW	3.55	31.9%	7.3%	4.0%	.315	1.77	42.3%	37.0%	81	-1.78	0.98	394	59
Ryan Brasier R 2026 · 3.68 FIP	28	SW	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.07	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.61	2.31	403	59

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2019

Service 7.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

DEF 10%

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Ext / FA-deal	$6M	+1.2	$10M	+$3M
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$10M	+1.1	$9M	-$0.9M
2028	Ext / FA-deal	$10M	+1.0	$8M	-$2M
Totals		$26M		$27M	+$0.8M