Grades · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 16 | ROK | DSL Twins | 4 | 4 | 11 | 47 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 2.8 | 36.2% | 2.1% | 34.0% | 0.0% | 2.45 | 0.32 | — |
| 2015 | 16 | ROK | DSL Twins | 4 | 4 | 11 | 47 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 2.8 | 36.2% | 2.1% | 34.0% | 0.0% | 2.45 | 0.28 | — |
| 2017 | 18 | ROK | Elizabethton Twins | 10 | 7 | 40 | 157 | 45 | 13 | 2 | 70% | 4.0 | 19.5% | 10.4% | 9.1% | 1.8% | 2.70 | 3.74 | — |
| 2017 | 18 | ROK | Elizabethton Twins | 10 | 7 | 40 | 157 | 45 | 13 | 2 | 70% | 4.0 | 28.7% | 8.3% | 20.4% | 1.3% | 2.70 | 2.48 | — |
| 2018 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 19 | 102 | 419 | 107 | 28 | 3 | 100% | 5.4 | 19.3% | 7.7% | 11.5% | 0.7% | 2.74 | 2.84 | — |
| 2018 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 19 | 102 | 419 | 107 | 28 | 3 | 100% | 5.4 | 25.5% | 6.7% | 18.9% | 0.7% | 2.74 | 2.21 | — |
| 2019 | 20 | MIX | 4 levels | 28 | 11 | 71 | 276 | 71 | 24 | 4 | 39% | 2.5 | 19.8% | 11.3% | 8.5% | 1.2% | 2.29 | 3.50 | +1.1 |
| 2019 | 20 | MIX | 4 levels | 28 | 11 | 71 | 276 | 71 | 24 | 4 | 39% | 2.5 | 25.7% | 8.7% | 17.0% | 1.4% | 2.29 | 2.85 | +1.6 |
| 2020 | 21 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 23 | 2 | 23 | 88 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9% | 1.0 | 14.8% | 3.4% | 11.4% | 1.2% | 3.09 | 2.94 | +0.4 |
| 2020 | 21 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 23 | 2 | 23 | 88 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9% | 1.0 | 14.8% | 3.4% | 11.4% | 1.1% | 3.09 | 2.93 | +0.4 |
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 51 | 1 | 50 | 219 | 47 | 12 | 3 | 2% | 1.0 | 20.4% | 5.6% | 14.8% | 1.5% | 5.22 | 2.89 | +1.0 |
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 51 | 1 | 50 | 219 | 47 | 12 | 3 | 2% | 1.0 | 21.5% | 5.5% | 16.0% | 1.4% | 5.22 | 2.72 | +1.1 |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 50 | 1 | 53 | 209 | 47 | 10 | 3 | 2% | 1.1 | 21.8% | 4.6% | 17.3% | 1.6% | 3.04 | 2.72 | +1.1 |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 50 | 1 | 53 | 209 | 47 | 10 | 3 | 2% | 1.1 | 22.5% | 4.8% | 17.7% | 1.4% | 3.04 | 2.63 | +1.2 |
| 2023 | 24 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 68 | 1 | 67 | 257 | 48 | 11 | 3 | 1% | 1.0 | 18.7% | 4.3% | 14.4% | 1.2% | 1.20 | 2.74 | +1.5 |
| 2023 | 24 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 68 | 1 | 67 | 257 | 48 | 11 | 3 | 1% | 1.0 | 18.7% | 4.3% | 14.4% | 1.2% | 1.20 | 2.74 | +1.5 |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 17 | 0 | 17 | 76 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.7% | 5.3% | 14.5% | 0.0% | 4.24 | 2.10 | +0.5 |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 17 | 0 | 17 | 76 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.7% | 5.3% | 14.5% | 0.0% | 4.24 | 2.04 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | AAA | Oklahoma City Comets | 4 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 0.8 | — | — | — | — | 8.10 | — | — |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | LAD | 45 | 0 | 48 | 201 | 46 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.0% | 7.6% | 15.4% | 2.7% | 3.67 | 3.99 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | LAD | 20 | 0 | 21 | 89 | 20 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.0% | 7.6% | 15.4% | 2.7% | 3.67 | 3.99 | +0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 51 | 218 | 49 | 18 | 6 | — | — | 22.6% | 8.4% | 14.2% | 3.0% | 3.96 | 3.73 | +0.5 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 21 | 90 | 21 | 7 | 2 | — | — | 23.0% | 7.6% | 15.4% | 2.7% | 3.67 | 3.61 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | LAD | 65 | 0 | 69 | 290 | 66 | 22 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 7.7% | 15.2% | 2.8% | 3.91 | 4.07 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | LAD | 62 | 0 | 66 | 277 | 62 | 22 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.3% | 8.0% | 14.3% | 3.0% | 4.10 | 4.23 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | LAD | 59 | 0 | 62 | 260 | 56 | 21 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.6% | 8.2% | 13.3% | 3.2% | 4.30 | 4.44 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | LAD | 42 | 0 | 44 | 186 | 43 | 14 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.9% | 7.7% | 15.2% | 2.8% | 3.91 | 4.07 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | LAD | 46 | 0 | 48 | 203 | 45 | 16 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.3% | 8.0% | 14.3% | 3.0% | 4.10 | 4.23 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | LAD | 48 | 0 | 50 | 211 | 46 | 17 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.6% | 8.2% | 13.3% | 3.2% | 4.30 | 4.44 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 344 | 5 | 354 | 1449 | 302 | 88 | 30 | 1% | 1.0 | 20.8% | 6.1% | 14.8% | 2.1% | 3.37 | 3.26 | +8.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 194 | 3 | 200 | 818 | 171 | 50 | 17 | 1% | 1.0 | 20.8% | 6.1% | 14.8% | 2.1% | 3.37 | 3.26 | +5.0 | ||
| Career | — | 274 | 46 | 438 | 1765 | 352 | 124 | 21 | 17% | 1.6 | 20.0% | 7.0% | 13.0% | 1.2% | 2.86 | 2.95 | +12.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 125 | 21 | 200 | 806 | 161 | 56 | 9 | 17% | 1.6 | 20.0% | 7.0% | 13.0% | 1.2% | 2.86 | 2.95 | +5.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Brusdar Graterol (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.99 | 23.0% | 7.6% | 2.7% | — | 4.24 | 22.3% | 14.3% | 196 | +0.25 | — | — | — |
| Heath Hembree R 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.69 | 21.1% | 7.2% | 2.7% | .292 | 3.96 | 27.3% | 18.8% | 162 | +0.27 | 2.67 | 382 | 77 |
| Arquimedes Caminero R 2027 · 3.46 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.46 | 23.0% | 8.5% | 2.2% | .265 | 4.48 | 17.9% | 6.5% | 61 | +1.02 | 3.46 | 173 | 75 |
| Will Vest R 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.49 | 23.2% | 8.1% | 2.4% | .309 | 3.01 | 25.4% | 18.4% | 200 | -0.48 | 2.58 | 448 | 74 |
| Taylor Williams R 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.64 | 24.2% | 8.9% | 2.6% | .309 | 4.33 | 22.5% | 12.7% | 108 | +0.69 | 2.59 | 309 | 72 |
| José A. Váldez R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.52 | 21.6% | 8.3% | 4.0% | .325 | 4.07 | 18.8% | 6.4% | 153 | -0.45 | 4.02 | 328 | 72 |
| Jeremy Jeffress R 2026 · 2.87 FIP | 27 | SU | 2.87 | 23.5% | 6.0% | 1.8% | .301 | 3.39 | 22.1% | 14.0% | 200 | +0.52 | 2.52 | 343 | 72 |
| JT Chargois R 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.47 | 24.4% | 9.9% | 2.2% | .282 | 3.53 | 25.9% | 17.5% | 108 | +0.06 | 2.59 | 362 | 72 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2027 · 4.03 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.03 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.8% | .289 | 3.03 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -1.00 | 2.27 | 426 | 71 |
| Ty Adcock R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.84 | 21.3% | 10.3% | 2.2% | .405 | 4.57 | 21.0% | 12.4% | 37 | +0.73 | 3.84 | 102 | 71 |
| Kelvin Herrera R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.19 | 21.6% | 6.9% | 3.7% | .290 | 3.88 | 21.7% | 15.4% | 96 | -0.31 | 2.32 | 297 | 71 |
| Luis García R 2027 · 3.26 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.26 | 20.7% | 9.5% | 1.3% | .327 | 3.25 | 21.6% | 12.8% | 187 | -0.01 | 2.40 | 617 | 71 |
| Brandon Maurer R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.80 | 22.1% | 6.4% | 3.2% | .355 | 4.83 | 19.7% | 6.7% | 54 | +1.03 | 3.21 | 234 | 71 |
| Blake Treinen R 2026 · 3.10 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.10 | 23.2% | 9.3% | 1.4% | .314 | 2.59 | 26.4% | 19.2% | 223 | -0.51 | 1.51 | 544 | 71 |
| Austin Ross R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.86 | 22.9% | 8.0% | 3.1% | .295 | 3.60 | 12.4% | 5.2% | 127 | -0.26 | 3.19 | 269 | 71 |
| Zach McAllister R 2026 · 2.82 FIP | 27 | SU | 2.82 | 28.1% | 6.4% | 2.4% | .333 | 3.91 | 23.5% | 16.0% | 159 | +1.09 | 2.82 | 363 | 71 |
| R.J. Alvarez R 2026 · 3.02 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.02 | 21.0% | 8.0% | 1.2% | .306 | 4.55 | 24.0% | 12.9% | 89 | +1.53 | 3.02 | 302 | 71 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2026 · 3.23 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.23 | 18.6% | 6.7% | 1.6% | .294 | 4.07 | 19.0% | 10.6% | 106 | +0.84 | 3.23 | 253 | 70 |
| Brandon Brennan R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.48 | 19.9% | 8.1% | 1.9% | .263 | 3.77 | 21.7% | 12.0% | 85 | +0.29 | 3.15 | 403 | 70 |
| Nate Pearson R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.10 | 26.0% | 7.4% | 4.1% | .309 | 3.58 | 21.2% | 8.1% | 79 | -0.52 | 3.45 | 387 | 70 |
| Blake Wood R 2028 · 3.05 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.05 | 24.5% | 10.5% | 1.3% | .325 | 3.66 | 24.9% | 14.9% | 151 | +0.61 | 3.05 | 210 | 69 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 61 | 22.4% | 7.9% | 1.13 | 4.01 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |
| Zach McAllister ('18) | 4 | 57 | 24.8% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 3.63 |
| Kelvin Herrera ('19) | 5 | 59 | 23.8% | 7.3% | 1.03 | 3.58 |
| Jim Johnson ('18) | 4 | 63 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 0.90 | 4.19 |
| Fernando Salas ('18) | 4 | 59 | 22.5% | 6.6% | 1.22 | 4.42 |
| Adam Warren ('19) | 5 | 67 | 20.8% | 8.3% | 1.08 | 3.55 |