Tyler O'Neill

RF Baltimore Orioles

Age 32 R/R 5'9" / 200 lbs MLB HR +9% Svc 8.343 · Ctrl thru 2027 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

Overview

MLBIL-6040-MANExtFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	29	MLBBOS	473	.241/.338/.511	31	4	129	1.8
2025	30	AAA/AABAL	50	.311/.380/.444	2	0	85	—	.277/.320/.405
2025	30	MLBBAL	209	.199/.296/.392	9	4	86	-0.6
2026	31	MLBBAL	260	.212/.300/.377	10	1	89	-0.1
2027PROJ	32	MLBBAL	118	.241/.328/.464	6	1	117	0.3
2028PROJ	33	MLBBAL	178	.233/.319/.444	9	1	109	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.1 · Next 2 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service8.343First FA2028

2027Ext$16M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

Barrel%90

xwOBA73

Avg EV63

Speed63

Bat Spd44

CompsPatrick Wisdom (age 32) · Jonny Gomes (age 32) · Jorge Cantu (age 33)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 119117vR 111

AVG/OBP/SLG.241 / .328 / .464

PA118

HR6

K%27

BB%10

BABIP285

ISO212

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 40 / POW 60

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT40

xAVG

110.219

POWER60

Barrel%

9014.8

Avg EV

6390.0

Bat Spd

4470.7

EYE55

scouting grade only

SPEED55

Sprint

6328.0

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 711 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

215

496

—

wRC+

177

◀◀L

wOBA

429

310

◀◀L

ISO

382

185

◀◀L

BABIP

309

267

◀L

31.2%

29.8%

▶R

BB%

12.6%

9.1%

◀◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2018

Service 8.343 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext	$16M	+0.4	$2M	-$15M
Totals		$16M		$2M	-$15M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2013	18	ROK	AZL Mariners	—	116	100	31	5	3	1	12	27	4	2	4	310	405	450	855	140	417	23	10	384	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	19	A	Clinton LumberKings	—	245	219	54	9	0	13	20	79	5	5	0	247	324	466	790	219	320	32	8	348	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	20	A+	Bakersfield Blaze	—	449	407	106	21	2	32	29	137	7	16	5	260	321	558	878	297	303	31	6	375	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	20	INTL	Peoria Javelinas	—	31	30	10	3	0	3	0	11	1	0	0	333	355	733	1.088	400	438	35	0	466	202	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	AA	Jackson Generals	—	575	492	144	26	4	24	62	150	9	12	2	293	382	508	890	215	364	26	11	385	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	INTL	Peoria Javelinas	—	86	72	21	5	0	3	12	22	1	1	1	292	400	486	886	194	375	26	14	390	150	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	557	495	122	26	3	31	54	151	3	14	2	246	324	499	823	253	286	27	10	357	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	142	130	33	5	0	9	7	57	3	2	0	254	307	500	807	246	364	40	5	348	128	+5	+0	+2	-4	+3	0.6
2018	23	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	273	238	74	9	2	26	29	68	2	3	1	311	390	693	1.084	382	324	25	11	454	138	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	151	141	37	6	0	5	10	53	0	1	0	262	311	411	723	149	386	35	7	322	107	+1	+0	-1	-4	+3	-0.0
2019	24	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	166	151	40	5	0	11	14	51	0	3	0	265	327	517	844	252	322	31	8	366	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AA	Springfield Cardinals	—	24	24	4	1	0	2	0	9	0	0	0	167	167	458	625	292	154	38	0	265	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	25	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	157	139	24	5	0	7	15	43	2	3	1	173	263	360	623	187	189	27	10	279	80	-4	+0	+2	-2	+3	0.0
2021	26	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	537	482	138	26	2	34	38	168	13	15	4	286	355	560	915	274	366	31	7	395	159	+38	+1	+3	-6	+12	4.9
2022	27	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	383	334	76	11	1	14	38	103	4	14	4	228	314	392	706	165	277	27	10	312	101	+1	+1	+1	-4	+8	0.7
2022	27	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	22	20	8	2	0	1	0	6	2	0	0	400	455	650	1.105	250	538	27	0	484	132	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	266	238	55	14	0	9	28	67	0	5	0	231	312	403	715	172	284	25	11	320	106	+2	+1	-1	-3	+6	0.5
2023	28	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	31	26	6	1	0	0	5	7	0	0	0	231	355	269	624	38	316	23	16	300	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	473	411	99	18	0	31	53	159	7	4	0	241	338	511	849	270	305	34	11	370	129	+16	+1	-5	-5	+10	1.8
2025	30	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	209	181	36	6	1	9	22	51	3	4	0	199	296	392	688	193	218	24	11	305	86	-3	+1	-5	-3	+5	-0.6
2025	30	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	30	27	10	0	0	1	3	5	0	0	0	370	433	481	915	111	429	17	10	411	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	AA	Chesapeake Baysox	—	20	18	4	0	0	1	2	7	0	0	0	222	300	389	689	167	300	35	10	310	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	260	231	49	8	0	10	27	72	2	1	0	212	300	377	677	165	262	28	10	306	89	-3	+0	-1	-3	+6	-0.1
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	2578	2287	547	99	4	128	238	773	34	49	9	239	320	454	774	215	298	30	9	340	116	+50	+6	-3	-34	+56	7.7
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2013	18	ROK MLE	AZL Mariners	—	116	104	23	3	2	1	8	39	4	2	4	221	302	317	619	96	341	34	7	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	19	A MLE	Clinton LumberKings	—	245	226	41	7	0	8	13	106	5	5	0	181	242	319	560	137	290	43	5	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	20	A+ MLE	Bakersfield Blaze	—	449	417	86	17	2	25	19	186	7	16	5	206	253	436	689	230	275	41	4	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	AA MLE	Jackson Generals	—	575	513	134	27	3	20	41	183	9	12	2	261	327	442	769	181	340	32	7	334	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	—	557	508	97	19	2	24	41	193	3	14	2	191	255	378	633	187	244	35	7	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	142	130	34	5	0	10	7	57	3	2	0	262	314	531	845	269	364	40	5	357	128	+5	+0	+2	-4	+3	0.6
2018	23	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	—	273	245	63	7	2	22	22	90	2	3	1	257	323	571	895	314	286	33	8	372	138	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	151	141	37	6	0	5	10	53	0	1	0	262	311	411	723	149	386	35	7	326	107	+1	+0	-1	-4	+3	-0.0
2019	24	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	—	166	155	31	4	0	8	10	67	0	3	0	200	248	381	629	181	278	40	6	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	—	24	24	3	1	0	1	0	11	0	0	0	125	125	292	417	167	129	46	0	170	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	25	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	157	139	25	5	0	8	15	43	2	3	1	180	269	388	658	209	189	27	10	286	80	-4	+0	+2	-2	+3	0.0
2021	26	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	537	482	140	25	2	37	38	168	13	15	4	290	358	581	939	290	366	31	7	404	159	+38	+1	+3	-6	+12	4.9
2022	27	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	383	334	77	11	1	15	38	103	4	14	4	231	316	404	721	174	277	27	10	318	101	+1	+1	+1	-4	+8	0.7
2022	27	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	—	22	20	6	1	0	1	0	7	2	0	0	300	364	500	864	200	456	32	0	363	132	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	266	238	55	13	0	10	28	67	0	5	0	231	312	412	724	181	284	25	11	325	106	+2	+1	-1	-3	+6	0.5
2023	28	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	—	31	28	5	1	0	0	3	8	0	0	0	179	258	214	472	36	278	26	10	236	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	473	416	97	16	0	32	48	159	7	4	0	233	323	502	825	269	305	34	10	359	129	+16	+1	-5	-5	+10	1.8
2025	30	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	209	182	36	6	1	9	21	51	3	4	0	198	291	390	681	192	218	24	10	296	86	-3	+1	-5	-3	+5	-0.6
2025	30	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	30	28	9	0	0	1	2	6	0	0	0	321	367	429	795	107	398	20	7	339	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	AA MLE	Chesapeake Baysox	—	20	19	4	0	0	1	1	8	0	0	0	211	250	368	618	158	277	40	5	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	260	231	49	8	0	10	27	72	2	1	0	212	300	377	677	165	262	28	10	300	89	-3	+0	-1	-3	+6	-0.1
2013	18	ROK MLE	AZL Mariners	—	116	104	23	3	2	1	8	39	4	2	4	221	302	317	619	96	344	34	7	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	18	ROK RAW	AZL Mariners	—	116	100	31	5	3	1	12	27	4	2	4	310	405	450	855	140	417	23	10	384	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	19	A MLE	Clinton LumberKings	—	245	226	41	7	0	8	13	106	5	5	0	181	242	319	560	137	292	43	5	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	19	A RAW	Clinton LumberKings	—	245	219	54	9	0	13	20	79	5	5	0	247	324	466	790	219	320	32	8	348	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	20	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	480	445	92	18	2	27	21	199	8	16	5	207	255	438	693	231	289	41	4	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	20	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	480	437	116	24	2	35	29	148	8	16	5	265	323	570	893	304	312	31	6	381	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	AA MLE	2 teams	—	661	591	155	31	4	23	47	210	10	13	3	262	327	445	772	183	356	32	7	334	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	AA RAW	2 teams	—	661	564	165	31	4	27	74	172	10	13	3	293	384	505	890	213	365	26	11	385	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	—	557	508	97	19	2	24	41	193	3	14	2	191	255	378	633	187	247	35	7	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	AAA RAW	Memphis Redbirds	—	557	495	122	26	3	31	54	151	3	14	2	246	324	499	823	253	286	27	10	357	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	415	375	97	12	2	32	29	147	5	5	1	259	320	557	878	299	322	35	7	367	134	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	415	368	107	14	2	35	36	125	5	5	1	291	362	625	987	334	336	30	9	418	134	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	341	320	71	10	0	15	20	131	0	4	0	222	268	394	661	172	320	38	6	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	341	316	81	12	0	18	24	113	0	4	0	256	309	465	774	209	339	33	7	339	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	25	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	157	139	25	5	0	8	15	43	2	3	1	180	269	388	658	209	191	27	10	286	80	-4	+0	+2	-2	+3	0.0
2020	25	MLB RAW	St. Louis Cardinals	—	157	139	24	5	0	7	15	43	2	3	1	173	263	360	623	187	189	27	10	279	80	-4	+0	+2	-2	+3	0.0
2021	26	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	537	482	140	25	2	37	38	168	13	15	4	290	358	581	939	290	367	31	7	404	159	+38	+1	+3	-6	+12	4.9
2021	26	MLB RAW	St. Louis Cardinals	—	537	482	138	26	2	34	38	168	13	15	4	286	355	560	915	274	366	31	7	395	159	+38	+1	+3	-6	+12	4.9
2022	27	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	405	354	83	12	1	16	38	110	6	14	4	234	319	410	729	175	285	27	9	321	103	+1	+1	+1	-4	+9	0.9
2022	27	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	405	354	84	13	1	15	38	109	6	14	4	237	322	407	728	169	291	27	9	322	103	+1	+1	+1	-4	+9	0.9
2023	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	297	266	60	14	0	10	31	75	0	5	0	226	306	391	697	165	276	25	10	315	100	-0	+1	-1	-3	+6	0.4
2023	28	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	297	264	61	15	0	9	33	74	0	5	0	231	316	390	707	159	287	25	11	318	100	-0	+1	-1	-3	+6	0.4
2024	29	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	473	416	97	16	0	32	48	159	7	4	0	233	323	502	825	269	286	34	10	359	129	+16	+1	-5	-5	+10	1.8
2024	29	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	—	473	411	99	18	0	31	53	159	7	4	0	241	338	511	849	270	305	34	11	370	129	+16	+1	-5	-5	+10	1.8
2025	30	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	259	229	48	6	1	10	24	65	3	4	0	210	293	376	669	166	242	25	9	295	86	-4	+1	-5	-3	+6	-0.6
2025	30	MLB RAW	3 teams	—	259	226	50	6	1	11	27	63	3	4	0	221	312	403	715	181	252	24	10	317	86	-4	+1	-5	-3	+6	-0.6
2026	31	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	260	231	49	8	0	10	27	72	2	1	0	212	300	377	677	165	262	28	10	300	89	-3	+0	-1	-3	+6	-0.1
2026	31	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	—	260	231	49	8	0	10	27	72	2	1	0	212	300	377	677	165	262	28	10	306	89	-3	+0	-1	-3	+6	-0.1
2013	18	ROK MLE	AZL Mariners	—	116	103	23	3	2	1	8	39	4	2	4	223	302	320	622	97	341	34	7	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	19	A MLE	Clinton LumberKings	—	245	225	41	7	0	8	13	106	5	5	0	182	242	320	562	138	290	43	5	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	20	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	480	448	92	18	2	27	21	199	8	16	5	205	255	435	691	230	275	41	4	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	AA MLE	2 teams	—	661	599	155	31	4	23	47	210	10	13	3	259	327	439	766	180	340	32	7	334	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	—	557	508	97	19	2	24	41	193	3	14	2	191	255	378	633	187	244	35	7	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	415	378	97	12	2	32	29	147	5	5	1	257	320	553	873	296	313	35	7	367	134	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	341	318	71	10	0	15	20	131	0	4	0	223	268	396	664	173	315	38	6	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	25	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	157	139	25	5	0	8	15	43	2	3	1	180	269	388	658	209	189	27	10	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	537	481	140	25	2	37	38	168	13	15	4	291	358	582	940	291	366	31	7	404	159	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	405	358	83	12	1	16	38	110	6	14	4	232	319	405	724	173	287	27	9	321	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	297	264	60	14	0	10	31	75	0	5	0	227	306	394	700	167	283	25	10	315	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	473	415	97	16	0	32	48	159	7	4	0	234	323	504	826	270	305	34	10	359	129	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	259	230	48	6	1	10	24	65	3	4	0	209	293	374	667	165	243	25	9	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	260	229	49	8	0	10	27	72	2	1	0	214	300	380	680	166	262	28	10	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	29	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	473	415	97	16	0	32	48	159	7	4	0	234	323	504	826	270	305	34	10	359	129	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	259	230	48	6	1	10	24	65	3	4	0	209	293	374	667	165	243	25	9	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	260	229	49	8	0	10	27	72	2	1	0	214	300	380	680	166	262	28	10	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	32	MLB MLE	BAL	100%	284	250	59	9	1	14	29	78	3	4	1	236	324	450	774	214	280	27	10	341	117	+6	+0	-2	-3	+6	0.4
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	32	MLB CTX	BAL	100%	118	104	25	4	0	6	12	32	1	1	0	241	328	464	792	223	285	27	10	347	117	+2	+0	-1	-1	+3	0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	BAL	100%	178	156	35	5	0	9	18	50	2	1	0	228	314	431	745	203	272	28	10	329	109	+2	+0	-5	-2	+4	-0.1
2028	33	MLB CTX	BAL	100%	178	156	37	6	0	9	18	50	2	1	0	233	319	444	762	211	276	28	10	336	109	+2	+0	-5	-2	+4	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2756	2443	584	105	4	137	256	823	36	50	9	239	320	454	774	214	297	30	9	340	103	+52	+6	-8	-36	+60	7.6
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	576	138	25	1	32	60	194	8	12	2	240	319	453	773	214	299	30	9	340	103	+12	+2	-2	-8	+14	1.8
Career	—	MLE		—	5499	4946	1137	195	16	268	430	1799	71	107	24	230	301	438	739	208	297	33	8	321	103	+54	+7	-9	-37	+62	7.9
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	585	135	23	2	32	51	213	8	13	3	231	301	441	742	210	298	33	8	321	103	+12	+1	-2	-8	+14	1.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAANorfolk Tides · 30 PAwOBA .400 → .339 (−61)K% 16.7% → 20.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.67%	÷0.967	×1.200	—	—	20.68%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.00%	÷1.063	×0.690	—	×0.972	6.31%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	0.00%
Singles /BIP	40.91%	÷0.959	×0.930	—	×0.972	38.54%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷0.978	×0.830	—	×0.972	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	—	×0.972	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.55%	÷0.945	×0.700	—	×0.972	3.27%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 92, 2B 96, 3B 80, K 93, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .400 → .339; ISO .111 → .080; BABIP .429 → .398. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAChesapeake Baysox · 20 PAwOBA .301 → .224 (−78)K% 35.0% → 40.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	35.00%	÷1.044	×1.220	—	—	40.92%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.00%	÷0.987	×0.700	—	×0.948	6.72%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.850	—	×0.948	0.00%
Singles /BIP	27.27%	÷0.957	×0.970	—	×0.948	26.21%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷0.970	×0.860	—	×0.948	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.950	—	×0.948	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	9.09%	÷1.248	×0.780	—	×0.948	5.39%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 150, 1B 91, 2B 94, 3B 80, K 109, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 24.8 → −5.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .301 → .224; ISO .167 → .094; BABIP .300 → .277. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 31 PAwOBA .293 → .236 (−57)K% 22.6% → 27.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.58%	÷0.990	×1.200	—	—	27.38%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	16.13%	÷1.010	×0.690	—	×0.992	10.93%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	0.00%
Singles /BIP	26.32%	÷1.040	×0.930	—	×0.992	23.34%
Doubles /BIP	5.26%	÷0.969	×0.830	—	×0.992	4.47%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	—	×0.992	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.955	×0.700	—	×0.992	0.00%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 108, 2B 94, 3B 130, K 98, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .293 → .236; ISO .038 → .033; BABIP .316 → .278. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 22 PAwOBA .470 → .363 (−107)K% 27.3% → 33.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.27%	÷0.976	×1.200	—	—	33.55%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	0.00%	÷1.053	×0.690	—	×1.003	0.00%
HBP% /PA	9.09%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	8.57%
Singles /BIP	35.71%	÷1.051	×0.930	—	×1.003	31.71%
Doubles /BIP	14.29%	÷1.019	×0.830	—	×1.003	11.67%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	—	×1.003	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	7.14%	÷1.048	×0.700	—	×1.003	4.79%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 110, 2B 104, 3B 130, K 95, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .470 → .363; ISO .250 → .166; BABIP .538 → .456. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 166 PAwOBA .358 → .272 (−86)K% 30.7% → 40.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	30.72%	÷0.986	×1.290	—	—	40.21%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.43%	÷1.035	×0.710	—	×1.048	6.06%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.980	—	×1.048	0.00%
Singles /BIP	24.00%	÷1.014	×0.900	×0.950	×1.048	21.21%
Doubles /BIP	5.00%	÷0.917	×0.810	×0.950	×1.048	4.40%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.810	×0.950	×1.048	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	11.00%	÷0.982	×0.780	—	×1.048	9.15%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 103, 2B 83, 3B 80, K 97, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .358 → .272; ISO .252 → .188; BABIP .322 → .278. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AASpringfield Cardinals · 24 PAwOBA .256 → .170 (−86)K% 37.5% → 46.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	37.50%	÷0.985	×1.220	—	—	46.46%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	0.00%	÷0.965	×0.700	—	×1.012	0.00%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.870	—	×1.012	0.00%
Singles /BIP	6.67%	÷0.974	×0.920	—	×1.012	6.37%
Doubles /BIP	6.67%	÷1.070	×0.840	—	×1.012	5.30%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.108	×0.940	—	×1.012	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	13.33%	÷1.108	×0.800	—	×1.012	9.74%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 122, 1B 95, 2B 114, 3B 122, K 97, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .256 → .170; ISO .292 → .185; BABIP .154 → .129. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 273 PAwOBA .447 → .372 (−75)K% 24.9% → 33.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.91%	÷0.975	×1.290	—	—	32.96%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.26%	÷0.960	×0.710	—	×1.050	7.96%
HBP% /PA	0.73%	—	×0.980	—	×1.050	0.75%
Singles /BIP	21.76%	÷0.984	×0.900	×0.955	×1.050	19.96%
Doubles /BIP	5.29%	÷0.957	×0.810	×0.955	×1.050	4.49%
Triples /BIP	1.18%	÷0.984	×0.810	×0.955	×1.050	0.97%
Home runs /BIP	15.29%	÷0.909	×0.780	—	×1.050	13.77%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 97, 2B 91, 3B 97, K 95, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.955.

Result: wOBA .447 → .372; ISO .382 → .319; BABIP .324 → .286. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 557 PAwOBA .350 → .275 (−75)K% 27.1% → 34.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.11%	÷1.010	×1.290	—	—	34.63%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.69%	÷0.997	×0.710	—	×1.050	7.25%
HBP% /PA	0.54%	—	×0.980	—	×1.050	0.55%
Singles /BIP	18.02%	÷1.001	×0.900	×0.959	×1.050	16.32%
Doubles /BIP	7.56%	÷1.021	×0.810	×0.959	×1.050	6.04%
Triples /BIP	0.87%	÷1.135	×0.810	×0.959	×1.050	0.63%
Home runs /BIP	9.01%	÷0.980	×0.780	—	×1.050	7.53%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 100, 2B 104, 3B 127, K 102, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.959.

Result: wOBA .350 → .275; ISO .253 → .194; BABIP .286 → .244. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Chris Taylorlast yr '25 career totals — 12 seasons, 3,909 PA	5.9	3,909	110	91	248	327	419	-9	+4	15.9	16.4
/162	664	19	15	-1.6	+0.6	2.7	pk7: 17
#2Matt Joycelast yr '21 career totals — 13 seasons, 4,318 PA	6.5	4,318	146	34	242	343	425	-46	-44	11.7	11.9
/162	664	22	5	-7.1	-6.7	1.8	pk7: 12
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 11 projected seasons	4.3	2,887	143	52	240	317	455	-31	-9	10.8	10.5
/162	664	33	12	-7.1	-2.2	2.5	pk7: 10
#3Henry Rodriguez'92-'02 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,343 PA	5.0	3,343	160	10	247*	307*	472*	-39	-10	9.3	10.2
/162	664	32	2	-7.7	-2.0	1.8	pk7: 11
#4Phil Plantier'90-'97 * career totals — 7 seasons, 2,165 PA	3.3	2,165	91	13	234*	322*	444*	-25	+10	6.5	6.7
/162	664	28	4	-7.7	+3.0	2.0	pk7: 7
#5Scott Hairstonlast yr '14 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,624 PA	4.0	2,624	106	36	242	297	444	-18	-16	6.0	6.6
/162	664	27	9	-4.5	-4.1	1.5	pk7: 7
#6Bubba Trammell'97-'03 * career totals — 7 seasons, 2,034 PA	3.1	2,034	82	10	250*	325*	443*	-25	-5	6.4	6.4
/162	664	27	3	-8.3	-1.8	2.1	pk7: 6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Tyler O'Neill (OGILVIE)	32	40	60	55	55	234/321/446	212	280	7	2	27%	10%	117	+0.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Patrick Wisdom 2024 · MLB	32	36→45	67→70	45→50	45	217/300/475	257	276	37	9	36%	10%	115	+2.4	214/285/450	236	272	33	10	34%	8%	104	+1.6	185/249/416	231	217	34	9	34%	7%	81	-0.0
✕Jonny Gomes 2013 · MLB	32	48→53	57→60	46→50	52	247/343/446	198	308	26	8	28%	11%	124	+3.1	238/332/400	162	306	21	4	27%	11%	109	+2.0	226/323/364	138	295	17	1	27%	11%	99	+0.6
●Jorge Cantu 2015 · AAA	33	41→51	61→55	49→40	46	234/293/450	215	251	31	7	22%	7%	107	+1.8	241/296/386	145	277	17	6	19%	6%	92	+0.7	233/290/363	130	274	14	4	20%	6%	85	+0.2
✕Seth Brown 2024 · MLB	32	42→48	60→65	50	47	231/295/445	214	270	28	9	27%	8%	106	+1.8	237/294/413	176	297	24	7	28%	7%	98	+1.2	229/286/392	163	292	24	6	29%	7%	88	+0.2
✕Brad Miller 2022 · MLB	32	43→53	60	50	52	235/323/453	218	286	29	6	28%	11%	118	+2.6	221/299/370	149	285	19	8	28%	10%	90	+0.6	198/275/305	107	258	15	6	28%	9%	65	-0.4
✕Miguel Sanó 2024 · MLB	31	41→51	58→70	48→45	48	221/304/424	203	292	27	7	33%	10%	105	+1.7	227/303/364	137	334	16	7	34%	8%	90	+0.6	203/284/307	103	325	13	0	38%	8%	69	-0.2
✕Garrett Jones 2013 · MLB	32	48→52	59→60	47→50	49	258/314/472	214	283	27	6	20%	8%	118	+2.7	247/302/437	190	287	22	3	22%	7%	106	+1.8	239/295/415	176	282	19	1	22%	7%	99	+0.8
✕Pedro Álvarez 2017 · MLB	30	44→48	62→65	47→45	49	242/309/464	222	279	31	5	26%	9%	116	+2.5	226/278/410	184	274	26	3	27%	7%	91	+0.7	213/260/384	171	257	25	1	28%	6%	76	-0.3
●Russell Branyan 2007 · MLB	31	44→43	64→70	50→45	50	239/329/483	243	309	33	5	33%	11%	126	+3.2	239/326/483	244	306	33	6	32%	11%	126	+3.2	242/324/500	258	295	36	3	30%	10%	130	+2.5
●Jorge Soler 2024 · MLB	32	43→52	64→70	41→45	53	243/328/484	240	274	33	2	25%	10%	127	+3.3	234/321/435	201	289	25	2	27%	10%	113	+2.3	221/313/403	182	282	21	0	28%	10%	103	+1.1
✕Justin Upton 2020 · MLB	32	47→57	60→65	46→55	52	249/336/463	214	311	29	8	29%	11%	124	+3.1	221/306/413	192	277	26	6	29%	10%	103	+1.5	195/285/378	183	241	26	4	30%	9%	88	+0.2
●Josh Willingham 2012 · MLB	33	48→53	61→65	49→45	55	254/349/478	223	292	29	7	23%	11%	133	+3.7	239/345/453	214	284	27	4	25%	12%	126	+3.2	227/344/433	206	272	26	2	26%	13%	122	+2.4
✕Dean Palmer 2001 · MLB	32	48→47	59→60	45→50	53	253/334/461	208	294	28	6	24%	10%	124	+3.1	234/318/412	178	282	22	8	25%	10%	107	+1.8	222/317/426	204	253	27	10	24%	11%	111	+0.9
✕Mark Trumbo 2018 · MLB	32	45→53	58→65	48→45	46	243/298/438	194	282	27	2	25%	7%	105	+1.7	240/296/420	180	287	24	4	25%	7%	100	+1.3	253/307/429	176	299	26	0	24%	7%	107	+1.1
●Robinson Chirinos 2018 · MLB	34	45→46	60	45→50	52	242/337/465	223	282	28	4	25%	10%	126	+3.2	231/335/425	194	299	24	4	29%	10%	116	+2.5	222/334/418	196	298	25	2	31%	11%	114	+1.3
●Chris Carter 2019 · MLB	32	34→44	61→65	48→45	44	203/282/422	220	262	30	4	35%	9%	97	+1.1	218/318/454	236	288	32	5	34%	12%	116	+2.5	200/322/459	259	246	37	1	35%	14%	118	+2.4
✕Mitch Haniger 2022 · MLB	31	45→55	63→65	49→50	47	252/319/483	231	284	33	3	25%	8%	124	+3.1	234/303/418	184	281	25	3	26%	8%	103	+1.5	215/289/368	152	269	20	1	27%	8%	86	+0.2
●Eugenio Suárez 2023 · MLB	32	40→50	61→65	44→50	51	223/316/445	222	275	30	2	30%	11%	114	+2.3	237/318/447	210	299	28	3	30%	9%	115	+2.4	235/313/459	224	288	32	2	29%	8%	117	+2.8
✕Trayce Thompson 2023 · MLB	32	42→49	60	49→50	45	225/303/444	219	308	28	8	35%	9%	109	+2.0	198/272/364	166	286	21	10	36%	9%	79	-0.2	166/237/299	134	240	17	11	37%	8%	50	-1.3
✕Alex Dickerson 2022 · MLB	32	49→56	58→60	49→45	48	257/324/462	206	292	26	4	22%	8%	120	+2.8	217/275/369	152	264	18	5	25%	7%	80	-0.1	183/235/311	127	226	14	1	25%	6%	49	-1.6

Tyler O'Neill

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps