Ariel Abreu

SS DSL Rangers Blue

Age 18 L/R ROK HR +15%BB +5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2026	17	ROKDSL Rangers B…	106	.301/.453/.434	1	0	70	—	.191/.321/.247
2027PROJ0% MLB	18	MLBTEX	216	.203/.288/.283	2	3	65	0.0
2028PROJ34% MLB	19	MLBTEX	63	.208/.294/.297	1	1	70	-0.0
2029PROJ48% MLB	20	MLBTEX	157	.212/.298/.309	2	3	74	0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

Chase%95

wOBA84

wRC+81

BB%73

ISO58

Speed33

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsAngel Guzman (age 18) · Carlos Jimenez (age 19) · Juan Villavicencio (age 19)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 91 proj PA

wRC+†65

AVG/OBP/SLG.201 / .286 / .280

PA91

HR1

K%29

BB%9

ISO80

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$15M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2036	Arb-1	$3M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M
2037	Arb-2	$4M	+0.4	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
2038	Arb-3	$3M	+0.2	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$6M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2026	17	ROK	DSL Rangers Blue	—	106	83	25	4	2	1	20	28	3	0	1	301	453	434	887	133	444	26	19	405	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Blue	—	106	89	17	3	1	0	14	34	3	0	1	191	321	247	568	56	305	32	13	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Blue	—	106	89	17	3	1	0	14	34	3	0	1	191	321	247	568	56	309	32	13	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK RAW	DSL Rangers Blue	—	106	83	25	4	2	1	20	28	3	0	1	301	453	434	887	133	444	26	19	405	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Blue	—	106	88	17	3	1	0	14	34	3	0	1	193	321	250	571	57	305	32	13	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Blue	—	106	88	17	3	1	0	14	34	3	0	1	193	321	250	571	57	305	32	13	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	18	MLB MLE	TEX	0%	216	191	39	6	2	2	20	63	3	3	1	203	288	283	571	80	290	29	9	264	65	-9	+0	+0	+2	+5	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	19	MLB MLE	TEX	34%	183	161	34	5	2	2	17	52	3	3	2	208	293	296	589	88	292	28	9	271	70	-7	-0	+0	+2	+4	-0.1
2029	20	MLB MLE	TEX	48%	324	286	61	10	3	4	30	91	5	6	3	212	298	307	605	95	293	28	9	277	74	-10	+0	+0	+3	+7	0.0
2030	21	MLB MLE	TEX	54%	431	381	82	13	4	6	40	120	7	8	4	215	301	317	619	102	294	28	9	283	78	-12	+0	+0	+5	+9	0.2
2031	22	MLB MLE	TEX	57%	507	447	99	16	5	8	47	139	8	10	5	218	304	326	630	108	295	27	9	287	81	-12	+0	+0	+5	+11	0.5
2032	23	MLB MLE	TEX	58%	559	493	109	18	5	9	52	151	9	11	6	221	306	334	640	113	296	27	9	291	83	-11	-0	+0	+6	+12	0.7
2033	24	MLB MLE	TEX	57%	592	523	116	19	5	10	55	160	9	11	6	222	307	337	644	115	297	27	9	293	84	-11	-0	+0	+6	+13	0.8
2034	25	MLB MLE	TEX	57%	612	540	122	20	6	11	57	166	10	12	6	223	307	339	647	117	297	27	9	294	85	-11	+0	+0	+7	+13	0.9
2035	26	MLB MLE	TEX	60%	622	549	123	20	6	11	58	168	10	12	7	223	308	341	648	118	297	27	9	294	85	-11	-0	+0	+7	+13	0.9
2036	27	MLB MLE	TEX	62%	623	550	123	20	6	11	58	169	10	12	7	222	307	338	645	116	296	27	9	293	84	-12	-0	+0	+7	+13	0.8
2037	28	MLB MLE	TEX	63%	619	548	120	19	5	11	57	170	9	11	7	220	305	333	638	113	295	27	9	290	82	-13	-1	-1	+7	+13	0.6
2038	29	MLB MLE	TEX	65%	610	540	118	19	5	10	56	169	9	11	8	218	302	327	630	110	294	28	9	287	80	-14	-1	-1	+7	+13	0.3
2039	30	MLB MLE	TEX	65%	600	531	114	18	5	9	55	168	9	10	9	215	299	320	619	105	293	28	9	282	77	-16	-2	-2	+6	+13	-0.1
2028	19	MLB CTX	TEX	34%	63	56	13	2	1	1	6	18	1	1	1	208	294	297	591	89	292	29	10	272	70	-2	-0	+0	+1	+1	-0.0
2029	20	MLB CTX	TEX	48%	157	139	29	4	2	2	15	44	2	3	2	212	298	309	608	97	293	28	10	278	74	-5	-0	+0	+2	+3	0.0
2030	21	MLB CTX	TEX	54%	234	206	44	7	2	3	22	65	4	5	2	216	302	320	622	104	294	28	9	284	78	-6	+0	+0	+3	+5	0.2
2031	22	MLB CTX	TEX	57%	287	253	57	9	3	5	27	79	5	6	3	219	305	330	634	110	295	28	9	289	81	-7	+0	+0	+3	+6	0.3
2032	23	MLB CTX	TEX	58%	322	284	64	10	3	6	30	87	5	6	3	222	307	338	645	116	296	27	9	293	83	-6	+0	+0	+3	+7	0.4
2033	24	MLB CTX	TEX	57%	337	298	66	10	3	6	31	91	5	6	3	223	308	341	649	118	297	27	9	294	84	-6	+0	+0	+4	+7	0.5
2034	25	MLB CTX	TEX	57%	347	307	69	11	3	7	32	94	5	7	4	224	308	343	652	120	297	27	9	295	85	-6	-0	+0	+4	+8	0.5
2035	26	MLB CTX	TEX	60%	376	332	74	12	3	7	35	102	6	7	4	224	308	345	653	121	296	27	9	296	85	-7	-0	+0	+4	+8	0.5
2036	27	MLB CTX	TEX	62%	387	342	76	12	3	7	36	105	6	7	4	223	307	342	649	119	296	27	9	294	84	-7	-0	+0	+4	+8	0.5
2037	28	MLB CTX	TEX	63%	392	347	76	12	3	7	36	107	6	7	5	221	305	337	643	116	295	27	9	292	82	-8	-1	-0	+4	+8	0.4
2038	29	MLB CTX	TEX	65%	396	351	76	12	3	7	36	110	6	7	5	219	303	331	634	113	294	28	9	288	80	-9	-1	-1	+4	+9	0.2
2039	30	MLB CTX	TEX	65%	390	345	73	11	3	6	36	109	6	7	6	216	299	323	623	108	292	28	9	284	77	-11	-1	-1	+4	+8	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3688	3260	717	112	32	64	342	1011	57	69	42	220	305	333	638	113	296	27	9	290	81	-81	-3	-3	+40	+80	3.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	575	127	20	6	11	60	178	10	12	7	221	305	334	639	113	298	27	9	290	81	-14	-1	-0	+7	+14	0.6
Career	—	MLE		—	6479	5720	1255	203	59	103	604	1784	102	118	72	219	305	330	635	110	298	28	9	288	81	-144	-5	-4	+68	+138	5.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	574	125	20	6	10	61	179	10	12	7	218	304	326	630	108	296	28	9	288	81	-15	-0	-0	+7	+14	0.6

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	4.3	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
/162	664	15	8	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#2Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#3Dick Schofield'83-'96 * career totals — 12 seasons, 4,928 PA	7.4	4,928	56	120	227*	307*	330*	+52	+19	9.4	10.0
/162	664	8	16	+7.1	+2.5	1.3	pk7: 11
#4Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	4.7	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
/162	664	8	18	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	5.7	3,779	61	70	220	301	331	+40	+24	5.8	5.3
/162	664	11	12	+7.1	+4.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#5George Strickland'50-'60 * career totals — 8 seasons, 3,266 PA	4.9	3,266	36	12	219*	302*	329*	+28	+19	3.8	5.0
/162	664	7	2	+5.7	+3.8	0.8	pk7: 6
#6Lennie Merullo'41-'47 * career totals — 6 seasons, 2,264 PA	3.4	2,264	6	38	234*	283*	339*	+24	+15	3.3	3.3
/162	664	2	11	+7.1	+4.4	1.0	pk7: 3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Ariel Abreu (OGILVIE)	18	—	—	—	—	201/286/280	79	290	1	1	29%	9%	65	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Angel Guzman 2024 · A	18	39	39→45	51→55	51	190/275/281	91	246	6	9	24%	9%	61	-1.5	193/294/290	97	272	8	10	29%	11%	70	-0.8	182/294/282	100	260	9	9	30%	12%	65	-0.4
✕Carlos Jimenez 2022 · A	19	36→44	39→50	53→55	48	177/265/262	85	249	7	11	30%	9%	53	-2.1	194/283/299	105	299	9	16	34%	10%	68	-1.0	223/303/376	153	308	17	18	31%	10%	89	+0.4
✕Juan Villavicencio 2024 · A	19	36→44	38→50	51→55	47	174/251/254	80	234	5	13	26%	8%	45	-2.7	189/262/280	91	279	7	14	32%	8%	55	-1.9	193/266/307	113	285	10	20	34%	8%	61	-0.6
✕Eliezer Álvarez 2013 · A	18	36→46	36→45	46→55	50	172/250/236	63	219	4	11	22%	8%	40	-3.0	203/255/297	94	259	5	11	22%	6%	55	-1.9	254/307/364	110	341	6	19	26%	6%	88	+0.3
✕Anthony Huezo 2024 · A	18	43→36	39→55	50→60	46	203/278/285	82	291	6	7	30%	9%	62	-1.4	177/252/293	116	322	12	17	45%	7%	55	-1.9	169/246/315	146	284	17	26	44%	7%	55	-1.0
✕Jose Pirela 2024 · A	18	39→35	38→45	48→50	47	185/272/266	81	257	4	10	28%	8%	57	-1.8	168/242/269	101	276	9	9	40%	6%	46	-2.6	157/231/267	110	255	11	11	41%	6%	39	-1.7
✕Yeremy Cabrera 2023 · A	18	36→43	37→45	52→60	51	173/263/245	72	222	4	13	23%	9%	49	-2.4	197/285/299	102	255	9	17	24%	9%	69	-0.9	197/288/299	102	260	10	24	26%	9%	68	-0.6
✕Jorge Alcantara 2010 · A	18	42	37→45	51→50	44	200/264/274	74	285	4	11	30%	7%	54	-2.0	207/273/305	98	302	7	11	31%	7%	64	-1.3	189/258/298	110	269	7	17	30%	7%	57	-0.6
✕Jorge Burgos 2021 · A	18	41→51	36→50	51→45	46	194/262/269	75	267	2	10	27%	8%	52	-2.2	233/298/320	87	326	5	6	27%	8%	77	-0.3	234/304/323	89	323	6	4	27%	8%	76	-0.2
✕Manuel Pena 2022 · A	18	38→48	38→50	50	45	187/249/259	72	249	5	15	26%	7%	45	-2.7	204/254/287	83	304	5	9	32%	6%	53	-2.1	238/273/365	128	316	15	5	29%	4%	76	-0.4
✕Antonio Pimentel 2024 · A	18	37→44	36→45	52→55	48	178/265/240	62	238	4	11	25%	8%	48	-2.5	190/269/267	77	245	4	19	22%	9%	55	-2.0	196/270/288	91	259	6	27	25%	8%	56	-0.7
✕Luis Liberato 2014 · A	18	38→48	36→50	48→50	44	184/246/249	65	251	3	13	27%	7%	41	-3.0	188/250/266	78	280	3	11	31%	7%	47	-2.6	221/286/368	148	299	15	9	30%	8%	83	+0.0
✕Joseph Tailor 2024 · A	18	40	36→45	53→50	39	191/248/254	63	287	4	14	33%	6%	43	-2.8	179/264/266	87	264	6	13	33%	6%	54	-2.0	141/246/232	90	206	6	17	32%	6%	38	-0.9
✕Carlos Soler 2018 · A	18	37	36→45	45	43	177/243/251	73	245	2	8	27%	6%	41	-3.0	213/269/300	87	310	3	8	30%	6%	61	-1.5	239/291/346	107	354	2	8	31%	5%	78	-0.1
✕Luis Valenzuela 2013 · A	19	41	37→45	51→45	45	196/255/276	80	259	4	6	25%	7%	51	-2.3	211/250/290	79	273	4	8	23%	5%	51	-2.2	263/285/365	102	319	5	7	19%	2%	78	-0.1
✕Isan Díaz 2015 · A	19	34→43	39→55	47→45	40	170/236/260	90	270	6	8	37%	7%	40	-3.0	210/275/349	139	306	13	8	34%	8%	76	-0.4	212/290/379	167	275	21	5	30%	9%	86	+0.2
✕Kleiver Chauran 2024 · A	18	41	35→40	46→60	49	191/269/253	61	261	3	9	26%	9%	52	-2.2	186/297/254	68	260	3	17	26%	12%	63	-1.3	172/307/237	65	243	3	26	26%	14%	63	-0.5
✕Juan Diaz 2007 · A	18	36→46	35→45	44→45	48	168/254/232	64	234	1	6	27%	9%	42	-2.9	209/255/277	68	283	3	5	26%	5%	50	-2.3	258/295/352	94	339	7	7	25%	5%	78	-0.2
✕Willian Berti 2024 · A	18	39	36→40	45→40	51	184/277/252	68	253	4	5	27%	10%	55	-1.9	174/276/249	75	247	5	5	28%	11%	55	-2.0	136/272/212	76	189	5	4	28%	14%	45	-0.7
✕Iverson Leonardo 2019 · A	17	39	36→45	45→50	46	181/272/256	75	268	2	8	30%	8%	54	-2.0	194/275/296	102	276	5	9	29%	8%	63	-1.3	172/252/291	120	240	9	10	31%	8%	53	-0.7

Ariel Abreu

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps