Braydon Risley

P Bradenton Marauders

Age 22 LHP 6'0" / 190 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.4 · 2030

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2036

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	21	MIX4 levels	25	12	75	5.38	3.56	25.2%	8.5%	—	K 18.4% · BB 7.5% · FIP 3.81
2027PROJ	22	MLBPIT	42	0	44	4.37	4.37	20.0%	7.7%	0.1
2028PROJ49% MLB	23	MLBPIT	33	0	35	4.17	4.11	21.2%	7.6%	0.1
2029PROJ70% MLB	24	MLBPIT	48	0	50	4.09	4.03	21.9%	7.5%	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Arb-1$0.6M2034Arb-2$0.7M+1

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 2, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 92%

CompsAlex Cornwell (age 23) · Jack Patterson (age 22) · James Reeves (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 100108vR 116

ERA4.37

FIP4.37

K%20.0%

BB%7.7%

K-BB%12.3%

Proj IP44

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 44 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$3M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.3M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2033	Arb-1	$0.6M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.4M
2034	Arb-2	$0.7M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.2M
2035	Arb-3	$7M	—	—	—
Totals		$4M		$4M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	21	MIX MLE	4 levels	25	12	75	329	83	28	9	48%	3.0	18.4%	7.5%	11.0%	2.4%	5.38	3.81	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	4 levels	25	12	75	329	83	28	9	48%	3.0	18.4%	7.5%	11.0%	2.4%	5.38	3.81	—
2026	21	MIX RAW	4 levels	25	12	75	329	83	28	9	48%	3.0	25.2%	8.5%	16.7%	2.7%	5.38	3.56	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	PIT	42	0	44	186	37	14	5	0%	1.0	20.0%	7.7%	12.3%	2.9%	4.37	4.37	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	PIT	67	0	70	297	63	22	9	0%	1.0	21.2%	7.6%	13.6%	2.9%	4.29	4.23	+0.3
2029	24	MLB MLE	PIT	69	0	72	304	67	23	9	0%	1.0	21.9%	7.5%	14.4%	2.9%	4.21	4.15	+0.3
2030	25	MLB MLE	PIT	70	0	73	308	69	23	9	0%	1.0	22.4%	7.4%	14.9%	2.9%	4.15	4.10	+0.4
2031	26	MLB MLE	PIT	70	0	73	308	70	23	9	0%	1.0	22.6%	7.4%	15.2%	2.9%	4.11	4.08	+0.4
2032	27	MLB MLE	PIT	68	0	72	304	69	23	9	0%	1.1	22.6%	7.5%	15.1%	2.9%	4.12	4.12	+0.4
2033	28	MLB MLE	PIT	66	0	70	294	66	23	9	0%	1.1	22.4%	7.6%	14.8%	3.0%	4.17	4.20	+0.3
2034	29	MLB MLE	PIT	63	0	67	281	62	22	9	0%	1.1	22.2%	7.9%	14.3%	3.2%	4.27	4.34	+0.2
2035	30	MLB MLE	PIT	60	0	63	264	58	22	9	0%	1.0	21.9%	8.2%	13.7%	3.4%	4.42	4.51	+0.0
2028	23	MLB CTX	PIT	33	0	35	148	31	11	4	0%	1.1	21.2%	7.6%	13.6%	2.7%	4.17	4.11	+0.1
2029	24	MLB CTX	PIT	48	0	50	211	46	16	6	0%	1.0	21.9%	7.5%	14.4%	2.6%	4.09	4.03	+0.2
2030	25	MLB CTX	PIT	56	0	59	249	56	18	7	0%	1.1	22.4%	7.4%	14.9%	2.6%	4.03	3.98	+0.3
2031	26	MLB CTX	PIT	61	0	64	270	61	20	7	0%	1.0	22.6%	7.4%	15.2%	2.6%	3.99	3.96	+0.4
2032	27	MLB CTX	PIT	62	0	65	274	62	21	7	0%	1.0	22.6%	7.5%	15.1%	2.7%	4.00	4.00	+0.3
2033	28	MLB CTX	PIT	61	0	64	270	61	21	8	0%	1.0	22.4%	7.6%	14.8%	2.8%	4.05	4.08	+0.3
2034	29	MLB CTX	PIT	59	0	62	262	58	21	8	0%	1.1	22.2%	7.9%	14.3%	2.9%	4.14	4.21	+0.2
2035	30	MLB CTX	PIT	56	0	59	249	54	20	8	0%	1.1	21.9%	8.2%	13.7%	3.1%	4.28	4.37	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		436	0	458	1932	429	148	54	0%	1.0	22.2%	7.6%	14.6%	2.8%	4.09	3.71	+4.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	188	65	24	0%	1.1	22.2%	7.6%	14.6%	2.8%	4.09	3.71	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		25	12	75	329	61	25	8	48%	3.0	18.4%	7.5%	11.0%	2.4%	5.38	3.81	+2.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		66	32	200	873	161	65	21	48%	3.0	18.4%	7.5%	11.0%	2.4%	5.38	3.81	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Braydon Risley (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.37	20.0%	7.7%	2.9%	—	4.16	21.8%	14.3%	215	-0.21	—	—	—
Alex Cornwell L 2022 · 3.76 FIP	23	SW	3.76	18.9%	7.3%	2.4%	.382	3.79	16.4%	8.4%	311	+0.03	3.16	381	84
Jack Patterson L 2018 · 4.72 FIP	22	SP-	4.72	14.7%	8.0%	3.4%	.299	3.10	19.4%	7.9%	80	-1.62	3.10	127	82
James Reeves L 2016 · 3.32 FIP	23	SW	3.32	21.9%	8.7%	1.8%	.237	3.30	23.0%	13.1%	146	-0.02	2.02	280	81
Mac Lardner L 2021 · 4.75 FIP	23	SP-	4.75	18.9%	8.5%	4.0%	.332	4.34	17.5%	8.1%	119	-0.41	3.66	186	81
Ryan Williamson L 2018 · 4.10 FIP	23	SP-	4.10	18.4%	5.9%	3.3%	.286	5.57	18.4%	5.8%	102	+1.47	4.10	123	80
Adrian Gusman L 2015 · 3.41 FIP	23	SW	3.41	16.5%	6.6%	1.6%	.280	3.68	15.0%	7.2%	63	+0.27	2.94	141	80
Jake Drehoff L 2015 · 3.95 FIP	23	SW	3.95	16.0%	5.9%	2.6%	.326	4.83	17.8%	6.8%	81	+0.88	3.95	153	79
Garrett Schoenle L 2022 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	21.4%	10.8%	3.5%	.263	4.25	20.9%	9.7%	219	-0.35	2.32	362	79
Jordan Fowler L 2022 · 4.98 FIP	23	SW	4.98	17.0%	5.8%	4.7%	.276	4.08	13.2%	5.3%	70	-0.90	4.08	124	79
Jack Owen L 2021 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	17.6%	5.0%	4.2%	.359	4.22	16.0%	8.7%	201	-0.36	3.44	221	79
Luis Guzman L 2016 · 4.41 FIP	20	SP-	4.41	14.7%	5.9%	3.3%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	4.41	116	78
Logan Darnell L 2014 · 4.78 FIP	25	SP-	4.78	19.6%	7.1%	4.4%	.338	4.10	13.4%	6.1%	262	-0.68	3.16	454	78
Sonny Vargas L 2021 · 4.54 FIP	20	SP-	4.54	21.0%	10.1%	3.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.20	165	78
Kyle Twomey L 2016 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP-	4.07	17.6%	10.5%	2.1%	.298	3.96	14.8%	6.9%	68	-0.11	3.96	141	78
Matt Osterberg L 2021 · 3.88 FIP	22	SW	3.88	20.2%	12.3%	1.7%	.255	4.04	15.6%	9.3%	274	+0.16	3.70	294	77
Jose Alvarez L 2013 · 5.02 FIP	24	SW	5.02	18.0%	8.7%	4.2%	.294	2.98	20.4%	14.8%	124	-2.04	2.78	414	77
Josh Hendrickson L 2019 · 3.80 FIP	21	SW	3.80	21.8%	6.7%	3.1%	.250	4.67	19.3%	10.9%	110	+0.87	3.80	368	77
Nick Maronde L 2015 · 3.85 FIP	25	SW	3.85	18.3%	8.9%	2.1%	.359	3.62	16.3%	8.9%	48	-0.23	3.62	133	76
Dallas Braden L 2007 · 4.14 FIP	23	SP-	4.14	16.6%	7.5%	2.7%	.337	3.89	14.1%	7.8%	401	-0.25	3.64	491	76
Hayden Wynja L 2023 · 4.74 FIP	24	SP-	4.74	20.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.315	4.79	18.0%	7.5%	56	+0.05	4.74	154	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.0	67	22.0%	7.6%	1.15	4.22
Fernando Salas ('19)	2.4	54	23.1%	7.3%	1.05	3.91
Shane Greene ('23)	2.4	59	21.7%	8.6%	1.12	4.50
Juan Carlos Oviedo ('14)	1.9	56	18.9%	8.0%	1.16	4.28
Tom Niedenfuer ('81-'90, 8 WAR*)	3.3	65	23.1%*	8.1%*	1.19*	3.80*
Ed Vande Berg ('82-'88, 3 WAR*)	2.6	74	19.6%*	8.8%*	1.07*	4.07*
Randy Moffitt ('72-'83, 4 WAR*)	3.9	78	19.4%*	8.3%*	1.08*	4.19*