Brandon McPherson

P Sugar Land Space Cowboys

Age 27 RHP 6'3" / 225 lbs AAA

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	25	MIX3 levels	14	6	50	3.40	2.82	28.0%	12.0%	—	K 19.8% · BB 15.3% · FIP 4.07
2026	26	MIX2 levels	24	20	87	6.10	5.43	21.2%	11.6%	—	K 17.8% · BB 10.8% · FIP 5.68
2027PROJ	27	MLBHOU	1	1	5	5.49	5.49	18.0%	11.4%	-0.0
2028PROJ43% MLB	28	MLBHOU	3	3	18	5.42	5.46	18.4%	11.3%	-0.0
2029PROJ59% MLB	29	MLBHOU	4	4	22	5.43	5.50	18.6%	11.4%	-0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.5 / P90 0.5, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsClay Condrey (age 27) · David Griffin (age 27) · Alejandro Martinez (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 137129vR 121

ERA5.49

FIP5.49

K%18.0%

BB%11.4%

K-BB%6.6%

Proj IP51

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 51 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	14	6	50	200	56	24	2	43%	3.6	19.8%	15.3%	4.6%	1.3%	3.40	4.07	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	14	6	50	200	56	24	2	43%	3.6	19.8%	15.3%	4.6%	1.3%	3.40	4.07	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	14	6	50	200	56	24	2	43%	3.6	28.0%	12.0%	16.0%	1.0%	3.40	2.82	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	20	87	406	86	47	18	83%	3.6	17.8%	10.8%	7.0%	5.0%	6.10	5.68	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	20	87	406	86	47	18	83%	3.6	17.8%	10.8%	7.0%	5.0%	6.10	5.68	—
2026	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	20	87	406	86	47	18	83%	3.6	21.2%	11.6%	9.6%	4.4%	6.10	5.43	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	HOU	1	1	5	21	4	2	1	100%	5.0	18.0%	11.4%	6.6%	3.8%	5.49	5.49	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	HOU	7	7	43	182	34	21	7	100%	6.2	18.4%	11.3%	7.1%	3.8%	5.42	5.46	-0.0
2029	29	MLB MLE	HOU	6	6	38	160	30	18	6	100%	6.3	18.6%	11.4%	7.2%	3.9%	5.43	5.50	-0.0
2030	30	MLB MLE	HOU	6	6	34	142	26	16	6	100%	5.6	18.5%	11.6%	6.9%	4.1%	5.52	5.62	-0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	HOU	3	3	18	76	14	9	3	100%	6.0	18.4%	11.3%	7.1%	3.8%	5.42	5.46	-0.0
2029	29	MLB CTX	HOU	4	4	22	93	17	11	4	100%	5.5	18.6%	11.4%	7.2%	3.9%	5.43	5.50	-0.0
2030	30	MLB CTX	HOU	4	4	24	101	19	12	4	100%	6.0	18.5%	11.6%	6.9%	4.1%	5.52	5.62	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		11	11	64	272	50	31	11	100%	5.9	18.5%	11.4%	7.0%	3.9%	5.46	5.15	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	155	96	34	100%	6.0	18.5%	11.4%	7.0%	3.9%	5.46	5.15	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		38	26	137	606	112	74	23	68%	3.6	18.5%	12.3%	6.2%	3.7%	5.11	5.15	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		55	38	200	883	163	108	33	68%	3.6	18.5%	12.3%	6.2%	3.7%	5.11	5.15	-0.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 62 IPFIP 5.93 → 6.27 (+0.33)K% 18.8% → 16.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.79%	—	×0.860	16.16%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.09%	—	×0.900	11.78%
HR / BF /BF	5.03%	÷1.000	×1.100	5.54%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.93 → 6.27, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 25 IPFIP 3.22 → 4.06 (+0.84)K% 27.8% → 22.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.78%	—	×0.810	22.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.41%	—	×1.100	8.15%
HR / BF /BF	2.78%	÷1.000	×1.200	3.33%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.22 → 4.06, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Asheville Tourists · 23 IPFIP 3.37 → 4.09 (+0.72)K% 24.5% → 18.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.47%	—	×0.770	18.84%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.83%	—	×1.150	15.90%
HR / BF /BF	1.06%	÷1.297	×1.250	1.03%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 159).

Result: FIP 3.37 → 4.09, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AFayetteville Woodpeckers · 20 IPFIP 2.94 → 4.05 (+1.10)K% 28.4% → 21.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.40%	—	×0.740	21.01%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.35%	—	×1.180	14.57%
HR / BF /BF	1.23%	÷1.005	×1.300	1.60%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 101).

Result: FIP 2.94 → 4.05, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKFCL Astros · 7 IPFIP 0.23 → 1.44 (+1.21)K% 40.0% → 27.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	40.00%	—	×0.680	27.20%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.00%	—	×1.250	5.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.023	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 105).

Result: FIP 0.23 → 1.44, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brandon McPherson (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.49	18.0%	11.4%	3.8%	—	5.52	18.5%	7.1%	115	+0.03	—	—	—
Clay Condrey R 2003 · 5.41 FIP	27	SP-	5.41	14.9%	10.1%	4.2%	.303	4.07	13.1%	7.4%	29	-1.34	3.18	250	85
David Griffin R 2023 · 5.83 FIP	27	SP-	5.83	14.2%	9.2%	5.0%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	4.43	239	80
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	79
Zach Stewart R 2015 · 4.43 FIP	28	SP-	4.43	14.4%	8.3%	2.7%	.322	5.17	11.7%	2.1%	51	+0.74	4.27	194	78
Travis Smith R 2002 · 5.28 FIP	29	SP	5.28	13.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.324	5.71	15.0%	9.0%	51	+0.43	3.67	105	76
Bryce Morrow R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	12.8%	7.9%	2.4%	.316	5.44	10.1%	-0.2%	50	+1.13	4.31	125	75
Aldo Montes R 2017 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.4%	8.5%	3.3%	.322	4.69	18.2%	7.6%	75	-0.27	4.69	210	75
Austin Bergner R 2024 · 4.84 FIP	27	SP	4.84	22.2%	12.5%	3.7%	.325	4.42	18.7%	7.3%	107	-0.42	4.06	464	74
Shawn Dubin R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	27	SP-	4.87	20.0%	12.9%	3.3%	.292	3.97	21.8%	11.4%	79	-0.90	3.02	341	74
Alfonso Sanchez R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.5%	9.1%	3.2%	.346	4.85	14.0%	5.3%	138	-0.11	4.51	224	74
Nolan Sanburn R 2017 · 4.55 FIP	26	SW	4.55	15.0%	10.4%	2.5%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	169	73
Noah Song R 2023 · 6.06 FIP	26	SP	6.06	12.0%	13.2%	4.2%	.239	3.80	19.8%	8.3%	116	-2.26	3.68	138	73
Drake Fellows R 2024 · 4.97 FIP	26	SP-	4.97	16.1%	12.7%	2.9%	.293	4.85	14.2%	6.3%	207	-0.12	4.28	282	73
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2015 · 5.24 FIP	27	SP-	5.24	11.6%	9.8%	3.4%	.263	4.28	15.3%	5.2%	167	-0.96	4.01	272	72
Jake Bockenstedt R 2024 · 6.05 FIP	24	SP	6.05	17.0%	13.1%	5.0%	.322	4.35	16.8%	5.4%	126	-1.70	3.74	218	72
Riley Thompson R 2023 · 5.76 FIP	27	SP-	5.76	18.5%	12.9%	4.7%	.284	4.48	17.6%	8.7%	107	-1.28	4.48	340	72
Fredy Quintero R 2015 · 4.55 FIP	27	SP-	4.55	11.3%	8.9%	2.3%	.375	4.38	15.1%	7.3%	113	-0.17	4.29	241	72
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	71
Luis Niebla R 2017 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP-	5.12	11.6%	13.2%	2.4%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	156	71
Luke Irvine R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	13.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	104	70

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	41	18.3%	11.4%	1.50	5.46
Scott Proctor ('11)	1.7	57	19.0%	10.9%	1.52	4.78
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Drew VerHagen ('23)	1.4	47	19.1%	9.4%	1.37	4.98
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Dennis Powell ('85-'93, -2 WAR*)	1.7	49	17.6%*	10.1%*	1.18*	5.31*