Brandon McPherson

Brandon McPherson P Sugar Land Space Cowboys

Age 26 RHP 6'3" / 225 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.6 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 25 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129120vR 112

ERA5.02

FIP5.02

K%21.0%

BB%14.0%

K-BB%7.0%

ROS IP26

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 25 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$1M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	14	6	50	200	56	24	2	43%	3.6	19.8%	15.3%	4.6%	1.3%	3.40	4.07	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	14	6	50	200	56	24	2	43%	3.6	19.8%	15.3%	4.6%	1.3%	3.40	4.07	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	14	6	50	200	56	24	2	43%	3.6	28.0%	12.0%	16.0%	1.0%	3.40	2.82	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	23	19	82	387	84	44	18	83%	3.6	17.9%	10.6%	7.2%	5.2%	6.45	5.79	—
YTD	26	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	23	19	82	387	84	44	18	83%	3.6	17.9%	10.6%	7.2%	5.2%	6.45	5.79	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	AA RAW	HOU	6	6	25	108	30	8	3	100%	4.1	27.8%	7.4%	20.4%	2.8%	5.11	3.22	—
2026	26	AAA RAW	HOU	17	13	58	279	54	36	15	76%	3.4	19.4%	12.9%	6.5%	5.4%	7.02	6.05	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	HOU	13	13	79	335	77	42	10	100%	6.1	23.1%	12.6%	10.5%	2.9%	4.80	4.71	+0.2
2028	28	MLB MLE	HOU	13	13	77	325	75	41	10	100%	5.9	23.0%	12.5%	10.5%	3.0%	4.76	4.76	+0.1
2029	29	MLB MLE	HOU	12	12	74	310	71	39	10	100%	6.1	22.8%	12.6%	10.2%	3.1%	4.82	4.87	+0.0
2030	30	MLB MLE	HOU	12	12	69	292	65	37	10	100%	5.8	22.4%	12.8%	9.6%	3.3%	4.94	5.03	-0.1
2027	27	MLB CTX	HOU	6	6	34	144	33	18	4	100%	5.7	23.1%	12.6%	10.5%	2.8%	4.76	4.67	+0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	HOU	8	8	48	203	47	25	6	100%	6.0	23.0%	12.5%	10.5%	2.9%	4.72	4.72	+0.1
2029	29	MLB CTX	HOU	9	9	54	228	52	29	7	100%	6.0	22.8%	12.6%	10.2%	3.0%	4.77	4.82	+0.0
2030	30	MLB CTX	HOU	9	9	55	232	52	30	8	100%	6.1	22.4%	12.8%	9.6%	3.2%	4.89	4.98	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		32	32	191	805	183	102	24	100%	6.0	22.8%	12.6%	10.1%	3.0%	4.79	4.43	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	192	107	25	100%	6.0	22.8%	12.6%	10.1%	3.0%	4.79	4.43	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		37	25	133	587	109	72	23	68%	3.6	18.5%	12.2%	6.3%	3.9%	5.29	5.20	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		56	38	200	885	164	108	34	68%	3.6	18.5%	12.2%	6.3%	3.9%	5.29	5.20	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brandon McPherson (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.02	21.0%	14.0%	2.8%	—	4.78	22.9%	10.4%	230	-0.24	—	—	—
Tony Dibrell R 2022 · 4.96 FIP	26	SP-	4.96	23.8%	17.4%	3.0%	.314	8.67	12.7%	-1.7%	29	+3.71	4.18	347	79
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	77
David Lebron R 2019 · 4.28 FIP	25	SP-	4.28	18.6%	14.2%	1.7%	.336	5.56	26.7%	12.0%	62	+1.28	4.28	144	76
Burch Smith R 2017 · 3.93 FIP	27	SP	3.93	19.5%	12.6%	1.6%	.234	4.43	22.2%	10.5%	192	+0.50	3.50	382	75
Sean Mooney R 2022 · 4.70 FIP	24	SP-	4.70	24.7%	13.5%	3.6%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	102	75
Jake Walters R 2022 · 4.03 FIP	26	SP-	4.03	17.0%	9.4%	2.1%	.316	5.89	14.8%	0.9%	72	+1.86	3.51	261	74
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.74	20.8%	10.5%	175	-0.63	3.11	252	73
Ike Buxton R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	23	SP-	4.67	16.8%	15.2%	1.9%	.241	4.64	14.8%	-0.6%	123	-0.03	4.45	196	73
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	72
Paul Clemens R 2015 · 5.37 FIP	27	SP-	5.37	14.3%	14.1%	3.1%	.310	4.62	16.9%	7.3%	200	-0.75	4.58	247	71
Nick Pasquale R 2017 · 4.74 FIP	26	SP-	4.74	16.8%	12.7%	2.6%	.306	3.80	17.9%	6.3%	50	-0.94	3.19	308	71
Phillippe Aumont R 2015 · 4.61 FIP	26	SP-	4.61	19.6%	18.2%	1.6%	.262	5.01	22.3%	10.4%	64	+0.40	4.61	147	71
Carson Rudd R 2023 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	21.0%	13.0%	4.7%	.274	4.61	17.5%	-0.1%	110	-0.92	3.39	242	71
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	71
Nick Hull R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	17.2%	12.1%	2.0%	.251	4.84	17.7%	6.3%	200	+0.58	4.26	292	70
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	70
Brandon White R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	23	SP	4.93	16.7%	10.3%	3.5%	.264	4.07	17.4%	10.5%	280	-0.86	3.90	299	70
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.32	22.2%	14.8%	121	+0.13	3.16	258	70
Nolan Sanburn R 2017 · 4.55 FIP	26	SW	4.55	15.0%	10.4%	2.5%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	169	70
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	70

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.6	65	22.7%	12.7%	1.18	4.84
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04