Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 20 | A | Columbia Fireflies | 9 | 0 | 14 | 60 | 17 | 11 | 0 | 0% | 1.6 | 21.0% | 21.6% | -0.7% | 0.0% | 1.88 | 4.07 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A | Columbia Fireflies | 9 | 0 | 14 | 60 | 17 | 11 | 0 | 0% | 1.6 | 28.3% | 18.3% | 10.0% | 0.0% | 1.88 | 3.03 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 21 | A+ | Quad Cities River Bandits | 26 | 0 | 35 | 140 | 51 | 11 | 6 | 0% | 1.3 | 28.0% | 9.0% | 19.0% | 5.4% | 4.15 | 4.82 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | KC | 62 | 0 | 65 | 276 | 64 | 39 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.4% | 14.3% | 9.1% | 2.9% | 4.91 | 4.91 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | KC | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 23.4% | 14.3% | 9.1% | 2.9% | 4.91 | 4.91 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 21 | MLB | KC | — | — | 100 | 416 | 115 | 50 | 14 | — | — | 27.8% | 12.1% | 15.7% | 3.4% | 4.65 | 4.88 | +0.6 |
| 2026 FULL | 21 | MLB | KC | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 23.4% | 14.3% | 9.1% | 2.9% | 4.91 | 4.53 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | KC | 65 | 0 | 69 | 290 | 70 | 37 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.3% | 12.7% | 11.6% | 2.9% | 4.70 | 4.60 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | KC | 68 | 0 | 71 | 301 | 75 | 35 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.0% | 11.7% | 13.3% | 2.8% | 4.51 | 4.40 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB | KC | 70 | 0 | 73 | 308 | 78 | 34 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.5% | 11.1% | 14.4% | 2.8% | 4.36 | 4.26 | +0.5 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB | KC | 70 | 0 | 74 | 312 | 80 | 33 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.8% | 10.7% | 15.1% | 2.8% | 4.26 | 4.19 | +0.6 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB | KC | 70 | 0 | 74 | 312 | 81 | 33 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.0% | 10.7% | 15.4% | 2.8% | 4.20 | 4.16 | +0.6 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB | KC | 69 | 0 | 73 | 307 | 80 | 33 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.0% | 10.7% | 15.3% | 2.8% | 4.20 | 4.20 | +0.5 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB | KC | 67 | 0 | 71 | 298 | 77 | 32 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.9% | 10.9% | 15.0% | 2.9% | 4.25 | 4.28 | +0.4 |
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | KC | 32 | 0 | 34 | 144 | 35 | 18 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.3% | 12.7% | 11.6% | 2.9% | 4.70 | 4.60 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | KC | 50 | 0 | 52 | 220 | 55 | 26 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.0% | 11.7% | 13.3% | 2.8% | 4.51 | 4.40 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB | KC | 58 | 0 | 61 | 258 | 66 | 28 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.5% | 11.1% | 14.4% | 2.8% | 4.36 | 4.26 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB | KC | 62 | 0 | 65 | 274 | 71 | 29 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.8% | 10.7% | 15.1% | 2.8% | 4.26 | 4.19 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB | KC | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 75 | 31 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.0% | 10.7% | 15.4% | 2.8% | 4.20 | 4.16 | +0.4 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB | KC | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 75 | 31 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.0% | 10.7% | 15.3% | 2.8% | 4.20 | 4.20 | +0.4 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB | KC | 63 | 0 | 66 | 279 | 72 | 30 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.9% | 10.9% | 15.0% | 2.9% | 4.25 | 4.28 | +0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 393 | 0 | 413 | 1744 | 446 | 193 | 49 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.6% | 11.1% | 14.5% | 2.8% | 4.32 | 3.89 | +7.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 216 | 93 | 24 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.6% | 11.1% | 14.5% | 2.8% | 4.32 | 3.89 | +3.5 | ||
| Career | — | 35 | 0 | 49 | 200 | 52 | 26 | 8 | 0% | 1.4 | 25.9% | 12.8% | 13.1% | 3.8% | 3.49 | 4.59 | -0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 143 | 0 | 200 | 816 | 212 | 105 | 31 | 0% | 1.4 | 25.9% | 12.8% | 13.1% | 3.8% | 3.49 | 4.59 | +1.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Kamden Edge (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.91 | 23.4% | 14.3% | 2.9% | — | 4.42 | 24.9% | 13.1% | 213 | -0.49 | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Ponce R 2027 · 4.61 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.61 | 24.4% | 16.2% | 2.8% | .328 | 4.59 | 22.6% | 7.5% | 110 | -0.02 | 4.42 | 161 | 89 |
| Matt Keating R 2027 · 4.24 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.24 | 23.3% | 14.8% | 2.3% | .346 | 4.58 | 23.0% | 9.0% | 142 | +0.34 | 3.39 | 208 | 89 |
| Tyler Vogel R 2027 · 5.21 FIP | 22 | SU | 5.21 | 23.4% | 14.3% | 4.2% | .305 | 4.40 | 19.5% | 6.5% | 116 | -0.81 | 3.83 | 182 | 89 |
| Tanner Jacobson R 2028 · 4.08 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.08 | 22.8% | 13.8% | 2.1% | .313 | 4.97 | 21.1% | 5.4% | 115 | +0.89 | 4.08 | 168 | 88 |
| Luis Ramirez R 2028 · 4.91 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.91 | 23.1% | 15.9% | 3.2% | .278 | 3.58 | 24.0% | 11.4% | 53 | -1.33 | 3.58 | 104 | 87 |
| Isaac Stebens R 2027 · 4.09 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.09 | 24.1% | 15.3% | 2.0% | .328 | 4.06 | 21.1% | 5.6% | 50 | -0.03 | 4.06 | 102 | 87 |
| Osiel Rodriguez R 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.65 | 22.7% | 15.7% | 2.7% | .263 | 5.67 | 22.0% | 7.6% | 56 | +1.02 | 3.32 | 124 | 87 |
| Kyle Hinton R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.17 | 23.5% | 15.0% | 2.1% | .275 | 5.66 | 17.7% | -0.7% | 75 | +1.49 | 4.17 | 106 | 87 |
| CJ Weins R 2028 · 4.42 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.42 | 24.7% | 15.9% | 2.5% | .276 | 5.59 | 16.8% | -2.7% | 73 | +1.17 | 4.42 | 113 | 86 |
| Jordan Mikel R 2027 · 4.57 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.57 | 20.5% | 12.5% | 2.9% | .330 | 4.23 | 19.2% | 9.0% | 109 | -0.34 | 3.09 | 195 | 86 |
| Kyle Marman R 2027 · 3.98 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.98 | 22.2% | 12.8% | 2.1% | .270 | 5.27 | 22.5% | 8.4% | 71 | +1.29 | 3.98 | 117 | 86 |
| Jacob Wallace R 2027 · 4.50 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.50 | 26.6% | 13.1% | 3.6% | .316 | 4.85 | 23.8% | 7.0% | 167 | +0.35 | 4.00 | 271 | 85 |
| Bailey Dees R 2028 · 4.23 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.23 | 21.3% | 13.2% | 2.3% | .248 | 4.32 | 21.4% | 9.6% | 278 | +0.09 | 3.40 | 330 | 85 |
| Craig Schlitter R 2029 · 4.76 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.76 | 22.7% | 15.4% | 3.0% | .298 | 4.44 | 14.7% | 4.2% | 171 | -0.32 | 4.07 | 222 | 85 |
| Brandon Johnson R 2029 · 4.88 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.88 | 22.4% | 14.2% | 3.4% | .327 | 4.57 | 21.7% | 10.8% | 163 | -0.31 | 3.44 | 224 | 85 |
| Harrison Cohen R 2029 · 4.55 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.55 | 22.4% | 13.4% | 3.0% | .282 | 4.01 | 23.3% | 9.5% | 99 | -0.54 | 2.09 | 146 | 85 |
| Jackson Kelley R 2028 · 3.84 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.84 | 26.5% | 13.1% | 2.4% | .313 | 3.92 | 21.1% | 9.9% | 138 | +0.08 | 3.80 | 190 | 85 |
| Aaron Kurcz R 2029 · 4.23 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.23 | 22.4% | 13.6% | 2.4% | .331 | 4.29 | 16.1% | 8.0% | 105 | +0.06 | 3.44 | 213 | 85 |
| Aaron Holiday R 2027 · 4.96 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.96 | 21.9% | 11.3% | 4.2% | .310 | 5.37 | 19.7% | -3.3% | 59 | +0.41 | 4.77 | 126 | 84 |
| Yondrei Rojas R 2026 · 4.77 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.77 | 21.5% | 13.2% | 3.3% | .295 | 4.00 | 20.4% | 10.1% | 63 | -0.77 | 2.72 | 223 | 84 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 8 | 71 | 25.2% | 11.5% | 1.10 | 4.41 |
| Brad Boxberger ('23) | 8 | 43 | 27.1% | 11.7% | 1.17 | 3.86 |
| Hansel Robles ('22) | 7 | 59 | 25.3% | 10.1% | 1.16 | 3.86 |
| Lucas Sims ('24) | 6 | 47 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 1.24 | 4.22 |
| Joe Kelly ('24) | 9 | 56 | 24.6% | 10.3% | 0.81 | 4.40 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Matt Barnes ('23) | 9 | 49 | 29.6% | 10.8% | 1.03 | 4.14 |