Alfiery Matos — OGILVIE

Alfiery MatosOF DSL NYY Yankees

Age 19 R/R 5'10" / 165 lbs ROK HR +14% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 150 proj PA

wRC+†61

AVG/OBP/SLG.197 / .280 / .272

PA150

HR1

SB5

K%28

BB%9

ISO76

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 37

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT40

scouting grade only

POWER37

scouting grade only

EYE69

scouting grade only

SPEED77

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	17	ROK	DSL NYY Yankees	—	82	63	10	0	0	0	15	27	2	10	3	159	338	159	496		263	33	18	256	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK	DSL NYY Yankees	—	179	140	38	4	3	3	32	36	6	33	4	271	427	407	834	136	343	20	18	382	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Yankees	—	82	68	6	0	0	0	10	33	2	10	3	88	225	88	313		162	40	12	169	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Yankees	—	179	150	24	2	2	1	22	44	6	33	4	160	292	220	512	60	215	25	12	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Yankees	—	82	68	6	0	0	0	10	33	2	10	3	88	225	88	313		162	40	12	169	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL NYY Yankees	—	82	63	10	0	0	0	15	27	2	10	3	159	338	159	496		263	33	18	256	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Yankees	—	179	150	24	2	2	1	22	44	6	33	4	160	292	220	512	60	217	25	12	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK RAW	DSL NYY Yankees	—	179	140	38	4	3	3	32	36	6	33	4	271	427	407	834	136	343	20	18	382	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Yankees	—	82	70	6	0	0	0	10	33	2	10	3	86	225	86	311		162	40	12	169	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Yankees	—	179	149	24	2	2	1	22	44	6	33	4	161	292	221	514	60	215	25	12	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Yankees	—	82	70	6	0	0	0	10	33	2	10	3	86	225	86	311		162	40	12	169	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Yankees	—	179	149	24	2	2	1	22	44	6	33	4	161	292	221	514	60	215	25	12	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	19	MLB MLE	NYY	0%	289	257	50	7	2	2	26	81	4	10	1	199	282	274	557	76	277	28	9	258	61	-13	+2	+0	-2	+6	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	20	MLB MLE	NYY	34%	233	207	43	6	2	3	21	64	3	8	1	204	288	288	576	85	279	27	9	266	66	-9	+1	+0	-1	+5	-0.5
2028	20	MLB CTX	NYY	34%	80	72	15	2	1	1	7	22	1	3	0	204	288	291	580	87	279	28	9	267	66	-3	+1	+0	-0	+2	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	80	72	15	2	1	1	7	22	1	3	0	208	287	306	593	97	286	28	9	267	53	-3	+1	+0	-0	+2	-0.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	585	121	16	8	8	57	179	8	24	0	207	286	303	589	96	284	28	9	267	53	-26	+5	+0	-4	+14	-1.1
Career	—	MLE		—	644	558	99	12	5	5	67	183	13	56	9	177	281	244	524	66	251	28	10	246	53	-16	+2	+0	-2	+8	-0.9
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	563	100	12	5	5	68	185	13	57	9	178	281	243	524	66	251	28	10	246	53	-28	+3	+0	-4	+14	-1.5

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#2Travis Jankowskilast yr '25 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,718 PA	2.6	1,718	11	100	238	321	309	-9	+11	2.1	2.5
/162	664	4	39	-3.6	+4.2	0.8	pk7: 3
#3Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#4Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	2.5	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
/162	664	16	13	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	0.3	230	2	8	201	282	280	-1	+0	-0.4	-0.2
/162	664	6	23	-4.0	+0.0	-1.2	pk7: 0
#5Abraham Torolast yr '25 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,561 PA	2.4	1,561	39	16	220	282	351	-1	-8	-0.5	-0.5
/162	664	17	7	-0.2	-3.2	-0.2	pk7: -0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Alfiery Matos (OGILVIE)	19	35→40	32→37	72→77	69	197/280/272	75	277	1	5	28%	9%	61	-0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Tyler James 2018 · A	21	44	36→30	64→65	42	203/264/279	76	291	2	27	29%	7%	55	-2.0	217/280/291	74	327	4	27	32%	7%	63	-1.3	224/290/283	58	344	4	45	33%	7%	61	-0.6
✕Monte Harrison 2015 · A	19	46→45	36→50	59→60	45	208/296/275	67	310	3	25	31%	8%	68	-1.0	186/255/278	92	313	8	16	40%	6%	53	-2.1	201/270/324	123	349	15	41	43%	7%	65	-0.6
✕Jay Allen II 2023 · A	20	44→47	40→45	60→55	44	207/294/300	93	300	7	32	30%	8%	72	-0.7	192/283/280	88	280	8	28	32%	8%	64	-1.3	202/286/304	103	275	11	24	29%	7%	68	-0.8
✕Jorge Mateo 2014 · A	19	39→49	39→50	60→65	49	190/263/275	84	238	6	30	22%	8%	54	-2.0	208/262/297	89	288	5	36	27%	6%	58	-1.7	217/266/353	136	277	13	42	26%	5%	73	-0.4
✕Angel Del Rosario 2022 · A	19	43	36→40	59→65	42	202/276/266	64	290	4	28	30%	7%	57	-1.8	198/259/267	69	312	5	34	36%	6%	51	-2.3	189/255/259	70	298	4	43	35%	7%	45	-1.0
✕Eddy Diaz 2018 · A	18	46→53	36→40	60→65	50	213/281/286	73	264	2	29	19%	8%	63	-1.4	212/286/288	76	250	2	35	15%	9%	65	-1.2	221/285/287	66	293	2	43	24%	6%	62	-0.9
✕Heiker Meneses 2010 · A	19	35→45	34→40	56→55	47	166/264/218	52	252	2	18	31%	9%	43	-2.8	207/263/280	73	304	4	18	31%	5%	55	-2.0	236/284/314	78	342	3	18	30%	4%	66	-0.8
✕Charlie Culberson 2008 · A	19	45→54	38→45	60→50	41	212/274/296	84	304	4	18	30%	6%	63	-1.4	218/263/298	80	292	5	11	26%	5%	58	-1.7	253/299/420	167	321	18	9	26%	5%	101	+0.6
✕Kevonte Mitchell 2015 · A	19	47→38	35→45	60→50	41	217/276/283	65	310	2	20	29%	6%	60	-1.6	212/274/299	87	302	6	16	30%	7%	63	-1.3	175/231/287	112	251	13	10	35%	6%	43	-1.8
✕Carlos Jorge 2022 · A	18	46→56	39→45	62→60	49	216/288/319	103	277	5	24	23%	8%	73	-0.6	208/282/338	130	299	12	26	32%	8%	76	-0.4	193/266/325	132	285	13	29	35%	8%	65	-0.7
✕Yasser Mercedes 2023 · A	18	45→36	40→45	59→60	42	217/266/312	95	287	6	27	26%	6%	63	-1.4	191/250/306	115	267	11	21	31%	7%	56	-1.9	160/233/276	115	224	13	24	34%	8%	41	-1.3
✕Angel Aponte 2019 · A	19	38	39→40	56→55	44	185/255/267	82	238	6	20	24%	6%	50	-2.3	204/263/292	88	285	6	19	29%	6%	57	-1.8	204/262/297	93	286	8	25	30%	6%	57	-0.7
✕Argenis Martinez 2009 · A	19	42	35→30	58→55	50	197/274/257	60	253	1	24	21%	8%	54	-2.0	208/269/255	47	299	1	17	28%	7%	51	-2.3	209/273/241	33	308	0	16	30%	7%	47	-1.3
✕Enmanuel Tejeda 2024 · A	19	45→36	39→40	55→60	56	209/320/298	89	285	6	19	26%	12%	82	-0.0	221/297/305	84	297	7	25	26%	9%	74	-0.6	206/283/289	83	268	8	31	25%	8%	63	-0.7
✕Roberto Caro 2015 · A	21	41→40	37→40	61→60	53	189/277/271	82	239	2	21	21%	10%	59	-1.7	193/264/265	72	284	2	16	30%	8%	52	-2.2	211/282/288	76	323	2	26	32%	8%	62	-0.7
✕John Gil 2024 · A	18	43→45	36→40	55→60	52	202/288/273	71	266	3	18	23%	10%	63	-1.3	209/283/287	78	275	6	30	24%	9%	64	-1.3	211/283/297	86	272	8	38	24%	8%	65	-1.0
✕Cameron Cauley 2023 · A	20	40→48	37→50	60	39	187/249/260	73	305	4	28	38%	7%	45	-2.7	196/252/317	121	310	12	26	38%	7%	59	-1.6	212/268/359	147	288	15	31	31%	7%	73	-0.5
✕Ruben Santana 2023 · A	18	45→41	36→40	57→50	50	208/295/280	72	287	3	16	26%	10%	68	-1.0	199/271/282	83	306	5	10	34%	8%	59	-1.7	181/257/261	79	289	6	10	36%	8%	47	-1.6
✕Brandon Dailey 2012 · A	20	47	37→45	58→55	44	219/280/295	76	302	3	17	27%	7%	64	-1.3	195/243/292	97	286	8	8	33%	5%	50	-2.3	171/212/271	100	247	8	5	33%	4%	31	-1.3
✕Telmito Agustin 2015 · A	18	43→42	39→45	58→50	51	204/287/303	99	262	4	18	22%	9%	70	-0.9	223/268/319	96	306	6	15	27%	5%	65	-1.2	228/261/337	108	324	10	12	32%	4%	64	-0.7

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps