Alfiery Matos — OGILVIE

Alfiery MatosOF DSL NYY Bombers

Age 18 R/R 5'10" / 165 lbs ROK HR +8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION110 act + 73 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†57

AVG/OBP/SLG.211 / .286 / .317

PA73

HR1

SB5

K%30

BB%8

BABIP300

ISO106

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.8	$2M	+$1M
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$5M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	17	ROK	DSL NYY Yankees	—	82	70	6	0	0	0	8	40	2	10	3	86	200	86	286		188	49	10	150	-27	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK	DSL NYY Yankees	—	82	63	10	0	0	0	15	27	2	10	3	159	338	159	496		263	33	18	256	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	18	ROK	NYY	—	110	94	16	1	1	2	11	32	4	19	2	170	284	266	550	96	230	29	10	246	46	-7	+3	+0	-1	+3	-0.1
YTD	18	ROK	NYY	—	110	87	21	1	2	2	18	22	4	19	2	241	394	368	762	126	297	20	16	351	127	+3	+3	+0	-1	+3	0.9
ROS	18	ROK	NYY	0%	73	66	14	2	1	1	6	22	1	5	1	211	286	317	603	106	277	30	8	259	57	-4	+1	+0	-0	+2	-0.1
ROS	18	MLB	NYY	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		277	—	—	247	47	—	—	+0	-0	—	—
FULL	18	ROK	NYY	—	110	95	16	1	1	2	11	32	4	19	2	168	284	263	548	95	226	29	10	246	46	-7	+3	+0	-1	+3	-0.1
TOT	18	ROK	NYY	—	183	160	30	3	2	3	17	54	5	24	3	187	285	287	572	100	259	29	9	251	51	-10	+4	+0	-1	+5	-0.3
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	19	MLB	NYY	34%	226	201	41	5	2	3	19	65	4	10	1	204	286	294	579	90	281	29	8	271	65	-9	+2	+0	-1	+6	-0.2
2028	20	MLB	NYY	48%	356	315	66	9	3	6	31	99	7	15	2	210	295	314	609	105	284	28	9	279	72	-11	+2	+0	-2	+10	-0.1
2029	21	MLB	NYY	54%	454	403	87	12	4	9	40	125	8	20	2	216	299	333	632	117	286	28	9	286	77	-12	+3	+0	-3	+13	0.1
2030	22	MLB	NYY	57%	523	462	101	14	4	11	46	142	10	22	3	219	303	338	641	119	287	27	9	290	80	-12	+3	+0	-3	+15	0.3
2031	23	MLB	NYY	58%	568	502	110	15	5	12	50	154	11	24	3	219	304	341	644	122	288	27	9	292	82	-12	+4	+0	-3	+16	0.5
2032	24	MLB	NYY	57%	598	529	116	16	5	13	53	162	11	26	3	219	304	342	646	123	289	27	9	294	84	-11	+4	+0	-4	+17	0.6
2033	25	MLB	NYY	57%	615	544	121	17	5	14	54	166	12	26	3	222	307	349	656	127	289	27	9	296	85	-11	+4	+0	-4	+17	0.7
2034	26	MLB	NYY	57%	623	551	123	17	5	15	55	168	12	27	3	223	307	354	661	131	288	27	9	297	85	-10	+4	+0	-4	+18	0.8
2027	19	MLB	NYY	34%	78	70	15	2	1	1	7	22	1	3	0	214	295	314	609	100	282	28	9	259	57	-4	+1	+0	-0	+2	-0.2
2028	20	MLB	NYY	48%	172	152	31	4	1	3	15	48	3	7	1	204	288	303	591	99	285	28	9	268	63	-7	+1	+0	-1	+5	-0.2
2029	21	MLB	NYY	54%	246	218	48	7	2	5	21	68	5	11	1	220	303	339	643	119	287	28	9	274	68	-9	+2	+0	-1	+7	-0.2
2030	22	MLB	NYY	57%	296	263	57	8	2	6	26	81	5	13	1	217	299	331	630	114	288	27	9	278	71	-10	+2	+0	-2	+8	-0.1
2031	23	MLB	NYY	58%	327	289	64	9	3	7	29	89	6	14	2	221	306	346	652	125	289	27	9	281	73	-10	+2	+0	-2	+9	-0.1
2032	24	MLB	NYY	57%	341	302	67	9	3	8	30	92	6	15	2	222	305	351	656	129	290	27	9	283	75	-10	+2	+0	-2	+10	0.0
2033	25	MLB	NYY	57%	349	308	69	10	3	8	31	94	7	15	2	224	309	354	663	130	290	27	9	284	76	-10	+2	+0	-2	+10	0.0
2034	26	MLB	NYY	57%	353	312	71	10	3	9	31	95	7	15	2	228	311	365	677	138	290	27	9	285	76	-9	+2	+0	-2	+10	0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	2162	1915	422	59	18	47	190	589	40	93	11	220	304	344	648	123	291	27	9	280	72	-68	+14	+0	-13	+61	-0.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	576	127	18	5	14	57	177	12	28	3	220	304	342	646	122	291	27	9	280	72	-20	+4	+0	-4	+18	-0.2
Career	—			—	4118	3643	785	107	34	84	362	1143	78	185	24	215	300	333	633	117	287	28	9	287	78	-103	+27	+0	-25	+117	1.7
/ 162G	—			—	650	575	123	17	5	13	57	180	12	29	4	214	298	329	626	115	286	28	9	287	78	-16	+4	+0	-4	+18	0.2

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	17	ROK	DSL NYY Yankees	—	82	63	10	0	0	0	15	27	2	10	3	159	338	159	496		263	33	18	256	54	-4	+1	—	—	+2	-0.1

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	8	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
	/162	664	20	13	233	305	399	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Gregory Polancolast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,220 PA	8	3,220	96	98	241	309	409	-34	-28	3.8	4.4
	/162	664	20	20	241	309	409	-7.1	-5.8	0.8	pk7: 5
#3Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	6	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
	/162	664	13	9	241	304	367	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
#4Damian Jacksonlast yr '06 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,930 PA	6	1,930	21	95	248	324	354	-6	-5	3.6	3.6
	/162	664	7	33	248	324	354	-1.9	-1.6	1.2	pk7: 4
#5Pokey Reeselast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,914 PA	5	1,914	29	78	242	303	347	-6	+6	2.7	2.7
	/162	664	10	27	242	303	347	-2.0	+2.2	1.0	pk7: 3
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	5	2,263	47	97	219	299	338	-14	+0	1.4	1.5
	/162	664	14	28	219	299	338	-4.0	+0.0	0.4	pk7: 2
#6Doug Glanvillelast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 2,256 PA	5	2,256	35	90	259	290	356	-9	+3	1.3	1.3
	/162	664	10	26	259	290	356	-2.8	+0.9	0.4	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Alfiery Matos (OGILVIE)	18	—	—	—	—	187/285/287	100	259	3	24	29%	9%	51	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Ceddanne Rafaela 2019 · A	18	42→48	39→55	51→55	40	205/251/286	81	270	6	16	26%	5%	45	-2.1	206/254/321	115	262	11	14	25%	5%	56	-1.3	247/287/396	150	298	15	20	22%	4%	88	+0.7
✕Eguy Rosario 2018 · A	18	44→52	36→50	53→55	41	205/261/283	77	291	2	20	29%	6%	48	-1.9	208/254/315	107	293	9	13	31%	5%	54	-1.4	219/282/363	144	293	15	21	29%	7%	76	+0.1
✕Juan Lagares 2007 · A	18	42→52	40→45	53→50	41	203/261/302	99	285	6	11	30%	6%	53	-1.5	203/241/283	80	277	4	10	27%	4%	39	-2.5	261/302/366	105	316	7	13	19%	4%	83	+0.3
✕Gilberto Celestino 2017 · A	18	43→53	38→45	54→55	48	203/273/292	90	270	5	13	25%	8%	56	-1.3	209/261/295	86	283	6	11	27%	6%	52	-1.6	240/311/319	79	317	7	14	25%	9%	75	-0.0
✕Cristian Hernández 2022 · A	18	45→46	38→45	55→60	46	212/281/288	76	301	6	19	30%	8%	59	-1.1	193/251/266	73	311	6	18	37%	7%	40	-2.4	212/279/312	100	297	8	33	29%	8%	61	-0.7
✕Juan Villavicencio 2023 · A	18	43	40→50	55	41	205/263/297	92	301	7	14	33%	7%	53	-1.5	187/262/281	94	277	7	12	32%	8%	50	-1.8	192/266/303	111	286	10	18	34%	8%	55	-0.5
✕Jeffrey Baez 2012 · A	18	43	40→50	54→60	40	210/259/299	89	281	7	22	27%	5%	52	-1.6	206/257/298	92	293	7	24	30%	5%	51	-1.7	196/251/342	146	261	19	15	32%	6%	58	-0.6
●Derek Hill 2015 · A	19	41→51	40→50	55→60	47	200/269/291	91	259	7	13	25%	8%	55	-1.4	199/251/270	71	293	3	25	31%	6%	40	-2.4	248/301/422	175	338	22	29	32%	6%	100	+0.7
✕Delino DeShields 2012 · A	19	40→50	40→45	50→65	41	196/253/282	87	272	8	16	30%	6%	45	-2.1	225/290/327	102	307	8	38	27%	7%	72	-0.2	242/320/339	97	323	6	34	25%	10%	85	+0.6
✕Yordalin Peña 2023 · A	18	41→39	40→55	55	37	198/247/291	93	283	6	10	31%	5%	45	-2.1	188/247/280	92	276	6	12	32%	6%	42	-2.3	189/253/317	128	293	11	17	37%	7%	53	-0.7
✕Daz Cameron 2016 · A	19	44→45	35→55	53→55	41	202/266/259	57	309	2	21	33%	7%	45	-2.1	195/255/299	104	301	8	18	35%	6%	51	-1.7	217/290/380	163	271	19	25	27%	8%	86	+0.5
●Moisés Sierra 2007 · A	18	42→52	39→50	52→50	42	203/266/292	89	271	6	13	26%	6%	54	-1.4	205/253/299	94	283	8	9	29%	4%	50	-1.8	248/314/378	130	302	14	15	22%	7%	93	+0.9
✕Dalton Pompey 2012 · A	19	39→49	41→45	56→55	45	193/266/287	94	270	9	17	30%	8%	53	-1.5	217/281/315	98	303	7	21	28%	8%	66	-0.6	259/316/359	100	331	7	29	22%	7%	87	+0.7
✕Eddys Leonard 2019 · A	18	41→47	41→55	48→50	48	200/282/301	101	267	9	14	27%	9%	64	-0.8	211/283/328	117	302	11	8	32%	8%	71	-0.3	225/292/378	153	293	18	4	28%	6%	84	+0.6
✕Yunior Garcia 2019 · A	18	37→47	43→45	52→30	40	187/247/297	110	260	10	10	31%	6%	47	-1.9	196/245/301	105	305	10	7	37%	5%	46	-2.0	224/273/340	115	327	12	2	33%	5%	65	-0.3
✕Francisco Acuna 2018 · A	18	39→49	37→45	55→50	55	183/284/257	74	242	4	15	24%	11%	54	-1.4	194/267/263	69	267	3	9	26%	8%	47	-1.9	223/293/322	99	294	9	16	26%	7%	70	-0.2
✕Jose Paez 2012 · A	18	36	36→45	51→50	41	173/241/239	66	265	4	16	34%	7%	30	-3.1	220/268/311	91	310	5	12	29%	5%	58	-1.2	226/270/319	93	319	4	12	29%	5%	56	-0.4
✕Diego Infante 2018 · A	18	42→52	35→45	54→50	41	199/244/266	67	276	2	12	28%	6%	36	-2.7	197/241/267	70	299	4	10	33%	5%	36	-2.7	234/285/359	124	358	14	14	36%	6%	76	+0.1
✕Alberto Rodriguez 2019 · A	18	40→50	40→50	51→50	43	198/259/283	85	277	8	16	30%	7%	48	-1.9	217/273/320	103	296	8	14	28%	7%	63	-0.8	218/277/350	132	309	11	7	31%	7%	70	-0.3
✕Dixon Machado 2010 · A	18	39→49	37→45	53→55	49	188/254/256	69	223	5	19	18%	7%	40	-2.4	195/249/240	45	248	2	17	21%	6%	32	-3.0	228/310/338	110	275	11	4	20%	9%	81	+0.3