Alex Breckheimer

P Palm Beach Cardinals

Age 23 RHP 6'5" / 270 lbs A

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	21	ASTL	4	0	4	9.00	3.10	30.0%	20.0%	—	K 30.0% · BB 20.0% · FIP 3.10
2026	22	ASTL	10	2	33	5.40	3.85	25.5%	10.6%	—	K 18.9% · BB 12.6% · FIP 5.12
2027PROJ	23	MLBSTL	19	0	20	4.86	4.86	21.0%	11.7%	-0.1
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBSTL	12	0	13	4.71	4.65	21.8%	10.7%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsTrent Fennell (age 23) · Luis Romero (age 23) · Ben Anderson (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA4.86

FIP4.86

K%21.0%

BB%11.7%

K-BB%9.3%

Proj IP20

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	21	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	4	0	4	20	6	4	0	0%	1.0	30.0%	20.0%	10.0%	0.0%	9.00	3.10	—
2025	21	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	4	0	4	20	6	4	0	0%	1.0	30.0%	20.0%	10.0%	0.0%	9.00	3.10	—
2025	21	A RAW	Palm Beach Cardinals	4	0	4	20	6	4	0	0%	1.0	30.0%	20.0%	10.0%	0.0%	9.00	3.10	—
2026	22	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	10	2	33	141	36	15	4	20%	3.3	18.9%	12.6%	6.3%	3.7%	5.40	5.12	—
2026	22	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	10	2	33	141	36	15	4	20%	3.3	18.9%	12.6%	6.3%	3.7%	5.40	5.12	—
2026	22	A RAW	Palm Beach Cardinals	10	2	33	141	36	15	4	20%	3.3	25.5%	10.6%	14.9%	2.8%	5.40	3.85	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	STL	19	0	20	84	18	10	3	0%	1.1	21.0%	11.7%	9.3%	3.1%	4.86	4.86	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	STL	29	0	31	130	28	14	4	0%	1.1	21.8%	10.7%	11.1%	3.0%	4.71	4.65	-0.0
2028	24	MLB CTX	STL	12	0	13	55	12	6	2	0%	1.1	21.8%	10.7%	11.1%	3.0%	4.71	4.65	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		12	0	13	55	12	6	2	0%	1.1	21.8%	10.7%	11.1%	3.0%	4.71	4.27	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	183	91	30	0%	1.1	21.8%	10.7%	11.1%	3.0%	4.71	4.27	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		14	2	37	161	33	22	5	14%	2.7	20.3%	13.5%	6.8%	3.2%	5.79	4.87	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		75	11	200	862	175	116	28	14%	2.7	20.3%	13.5%	6.8%	3.2%	5.79	4.87	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alex Breckheimer (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.86	21.0%	11.7%	3.1%	—	4.65	21.8%	11.1%	31	-0.21	—	—	—
Trent Fennell R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	23	SW	4.08	20.6%	12.2%	2.1%	.328	5.52	19.4%	3.5%	107	+1.44	4.08	163	85
Luis Romero R 2017 · 5.00 FIP	23	SU	5.00	22.1%	11.9%	4.1%	.367	4.26	21.6%	12.5%	132	-0.74	4.00	293	85
Ben Anderson R 2021 · 4.84 FIP	23	SW	4.84	19.8%	9.4%	4.0%	.309	4.02	16.2%	7.7%	147	-0.82	3.80	399	84
Orlando Ortiz-Mayr R 2022 · 4.61 FIP	24	SU	4.61	21.0%	13.2%	2.9%	.341	4.74	15.7%	4.0%	343	+0.13	3.65	492	83
Zac Ryan R 2017 · 3.83 FIP	23	SU	3.83	20.5%	10.9%	2.0%	.233	3.93	21.6%	6.9%	124	+0.10	3.83	184	81
Hunter Stanley R 2022 · 3.84 FIP	24	SU	3.84	18.9%	10.1%	1.9%	.270	5.26	17.3%	7.3%	148	+1.42	3.84	220	81
Ryan Conroy R 2021 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	22.2%	9.8%	2.8%	.353	4.75	19.3%	6.7%	54	+0.74	4.01	106	81
Alec Barger R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SW	4.55	21.7%	13.6%	2.8%	.289	4.17	21.3%	9.4%	148	-0.38	3.85	242	81
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	80
Hayden Snelsire R 2024 · 5.10 FIP	23	SU	5.10	18.9%	13.8%	3.4%	.272	4.28	20.0%	13.7%	135	-0.82	3.83	178	80
Jonathan Papelbon R 2005 · 3.93 FIP	24	SW	3.93	23.0%	10.1%	2.7%	.305	1.90	31.3%	26.8%	196	-2.03	1.33	726	80
Tyler Santana R 2021 · 4.28 FIP	23	SU	4.28	20.3%	15.1%	1.8%	.333	4.37	16.0%	5.7%	259	+0.09	3.37	401	80
Jayson McKinley R 2017 · 4.39 FIP	23	SU	4.39	17.5%	11.4%	2.4%	.308	3.60	20.4%	11.3%	134	-0.79	2.35	173	80
Clark Beeker R 2016 · 4.04 FIP	23	SW	4.04	20.0%	7.1%	3.2%	.270	4.35	11.6%	6.4%	244	+0.31	4.04	287	80
Billy Corcoran R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SW	4.20	19.5%	10.0%	2.7%	.308	5.26	16.4%	8.7%	208	+1.06	4.20	277	80
Luis Eusebio R 2019 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	18.2%	10.6%	3.7%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	4.79	131	80
Joangel Gonzalez R 2024 · 4.23 FIP	20	SU	4.23	18.3%	11.7%	2.1%	.312	5.15	18.3%	2.5%	116	+0.92	3.93	151	80
Brandyn Sittinger R 2017 · 4.37 FIP	23	SU	4.37	22.2%	13.8%	2.5%	.324	3.97	21.2%	7.2%	72	-0.40	3.58	152	79
Colby Morris R 2021 · 4.11 FIP	24	SU	4.11	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.76	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.65	4.11	105	79
Jarret Whorff R 2023 · 4.24 FIP	24	SW	4.24	19.5%	14.2%	1.8%	.287	4.34	19.4%	10.8%	193	+0.10	3.88	257	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	25	21.5%	11.1%	1.17	4.77
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*