Jordan Gottesman P San Jose Giants
Age 23 LHP 6'1" / 182 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.5 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION66 act + 34 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 100109vR 118
ERA4.35
FIP4.35
K%23.1%
BB%9.2%
K-BB%13.9%
ROS IP34
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 100 IP
K: +1.5 runs (Runs saved by strikeouts vs lg-avg K%)+2KBB: +0.4 runs (Runs saved by walk suppression vs lg-avg BB%)+0BBCONTACT: -7.9 runs (Runs saved on contact quality (HR suppression) vs lg)-8CONTACTSTAM: +13.6 runs (Replacement credit for innings volume)+14STAMTotal WAR: +0.80 (100 IP)+0.8WAR
0.00.51.00.10.20.20.10.1+$5M ctrl surplus26272829303132333435
projected WAR paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Scouting Grades
K†5560
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2031
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2036
First FA Year   2037
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2026MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.1$0.3M+$0.0M (cut)
2032Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $0.3M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

YearAge LvlTeam GGSIPBF KBBHR GS%IP/G K%BB%K-BB%HR% ERAFIP WAR
▸ 2026 Season
202623ASan Jose Giants1514662847322993%4.419.0%9.1%9.9%4.1%4.484.91-0.2
ROS23MLBSF663414233134100%5.623.1%9.2%13.9%3.0%4.354.35+0.1
ROS23MLBSF023.1%9.2%13.9%2.9%4.284.28
2026 TOT23MLBSF100426106351324.8%8.2%16.6%3.1%4.434.72+0.8
▸ 2027+ Projections   WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ
202724MLBSF663414635134100%5.823.7%8.8%14.9%3.0%4.294.24+0.1
202825MLBSF663514735134100%5.824.1%8.7%15.4%3.0%4.234.18+0.2
202926MLBSF663514736134100%5.824.2%8.7%15.6%3.0%4.204.17+0.2
203027MLBSF663414535134100%5.724.2%8.8%15.5%3.0%4.214.21+0.1
203128MLBSF663314134134100%5.624.1%8.9%15.2%3.1%4.264.29+0.1
202724MLBSF3315631562100%5.023.7%8.8%14.9%2.9%4.224.17+0.1
202825MLBSF4423972383100%5.824.1%8.7%15.4%2.9%4.164.11+0.1
202926MLBSF552811829103100%5.624.2%8.7%15.6%2.9%4.134.10+0.1
203027MLBSF552912230114100%5.824.2%8.8%15.5%2.9%4.144.14+0.1
203128MLBSF553012731114100%6.024.1%8.9%15.2%3.0%4.194.22+0.1
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career21211255261274615100%5.924.1%8.8%15.3%2.9%4.173.77+2.4
/ 200 IP34342008442047424100%5.924.1%8.8%15.3%2.9%4.173.77+3.8
Career15146628454261293%4.419.0%9.1%9.9%4.1%4.484.91-0.2
/ 200 IP4542200856163783593%4.419.0%9.1%9.9%4.1%4.484.91+1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Profile at Match Age Next 3 Yrs Career
CompAgeRole FIPK%BB%HR/BFBABIP FIPK%K-BB%IP ΔFIPLow FIPIPMatch
Jordan Gottesman (OGILVIE) 4.35 23.1%9.2%3.0% 4.20 24.0%15.3%104 -0.15
Jake Bennett L 2025 · 3.54 FIP 22 SP 3.54 21.2%7.2%2.4%.339 3.10 19.0%12.8%156 -0.44 2.79 219 83
Austin Emener L 2025 · 4.86 FIP 22 SP 4.86 19.4%9.3%4.1%.306 5.42 23.7%8.9%49 +0.56 4.86 109 81
Dalton Pence L 2026 · 3.89 FIP 23 SP 3.89 22.0%8.1%3.0%.254 3.32 153 81
T.J. Sikkema L 2027 · 4.71 FIP 24 SP 4.71 21.9%9.0%4.2%.298 4.64 16.9%7.4%231 -0.07 3.39 300 81
Austin Warner L 2026 · 4.06 FIP 23 SP 4.06 18.6%8.1%2.7%.291 4.43 17.6%9.4%284 +0.37 3.88 491 81
Sam Weatherly L 2025 · 3.86 FIP 22 SP 3.86 24.0%12.8%2.1%.323 4.14 21.9%8.9%41 +0.28 3.86 189 80
Hogan Harris L 2025 · 3.73 FIP 22 SP 3.73 20.5%10.6%1.9%.235 3.64 27.4%12.7%74 -0.09 3.14 473 80
Hunter Barco L 2026 · 3.51 FIP 23 SP 3.51 23.4%10.0%2.0%.275 3.79 22.7%10.5%150 +0.28 3.51 212 79
Anthony Veneziano L 2026 · 4.24 FIP 23 SP 4.24 24.9%10.8%3.4%.298 5.19 18.7%8.0%358 +0.95 4.24 501 78
Kash Mayfield L 2024 · 4.36 FIP 21 SP 4.36 23.3%11.4%3.3%.273 3.23 109 77
Cole Ragans L 2026 · 5.15 FIP 23 SP 5.15 20.2%11.2%4.2%.296 3.38 26.8%17.4%445 -1.77 2.46 623 76
Hunter Owen L 2026 · 4.06 FIP 23 SP 4.06 21.0%10.7%2.5%.297 6.60 15.1%4.8%51 +2.54 4.06 248 76
Evan Lee L 2027 · 4.00 FIP 24 SP 4.00 24.2%11.1%2.8%.333 4.48 21.0%2.7%52 +0.48 3.84 129 76
Tyler Skaggs L 2028 · 3.21 FIP 25 SP 3.21 26.1%9.2%2.1%.300 3.81 23.0%15.2%290 +0.60 3.21 372 76
Drew Parrish L 2026 · 3.53 FIP 23 SP- 3.53 24.1%7.9%2.7%.261 6.22 16.8%6.5%354 +2.69 3.53 522 76
Hayden Mullins L 2026 · 4.33 FIP 23 SP- 4.33 23.4%12.4%3.0%.288 4.01 25.1%10.7%150 -0.32 3.72 239 75
Robby Ahlstrom L 2026 · 4.49 FIP 23 SP- 4.49 20.1%9.0%3.5%.349 4.18 22.0%8.2%175 -0.31 3.65 308 75
Samy Natera Jr. L 2026 · 5.17 FIP 23 SP 5.17 22.9%13.3%4.2%.294 3.68 29.8%14.8%108 -1.49 1.94 191 75
Jacob Latz L 2026 · 3.28 FIP 23 SP 3.28 23.0%12.6%0.9%.222 5.11 22.8%10.7%149 +1.83 2.43 453 75
Brent Killam L 2026 · 4.35 FIP 23 SP 4.35 29.1%14.5%3.4%.284 7.12 18.4%9.6%80 +2.77 4.35 121 75

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

PlayerYrsIP/yrK%BB%HR/9ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION63423.9%8.8%1.174.26
Noé Ramirez ('22)55224.8%9.0%1.334.19
Jacob Barnes ('24)74222.1%9.6%1.214.58
David Hernandez ('19)55425.0%7.9%1.144.10
Shane Greene ('21)75621.4%8.5%1.164.67
Ryan Tepera ('22)74824.7%8.8%1.123.53
Dominic Leone ('23)74624.2%10.1%1.333.81