Jordan Gottesman

P San Jose Giants

Age 24 LHP 6'1" / 182 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.8 · 2028

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

OGV OFP35OGV rank#600ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	23	MIX2 levels	23	21	107	3.87	3.43	25.1%	7.8%	—	K 19.0% · BB 9.3% · FIP 4.65
2027PROJ	24	MLBSF	—	—	0	4.68	4.68	20.0%	9.3%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBSF	6	6	34	4.46	4.42	20.7%	8.9%	0.3
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBSF	8	8	50	4.40	4.38	21.1%	8.8%	0.5

Next 3 projected WAR 0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Arb-1$0.8M+2

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.0 / P90 0.3, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsMarc Rzepczynski (age 24) · Austin Emener (age 22) · Brian Holmes (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 106114vR 122

ERA4.68

FIP4.68

K%20.0%

BB%9.3%

K-BB%10.7%

Proj IP72

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 72 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$20M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.9M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2034	Arb-1	$0.8M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.3M
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$4M		$4M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	21	107	451	113	35	12	91%	4.7	19.0%	9.3%	9.7%	3.6%	3.87	4.65	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	21	107	451	113	35	12	91%	4.7	19.0%	9.3%	9.7%	3.6%	3.87	4.65	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	21	107	451	113	35	12	91%	4.7	25.1%	7.8%	17.3%	2.7%	3.87	3.43	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	SF	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.0%	9.3%	10.7%	3.1%	4.68	4.68	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	SF	14	14	80	339	70	30	10	100%	5.7	20.7%	8.9%	11.8%	3.1%	4.59	4.55	+0.8
2029	26	MLB MLE	SF	13	13	76	321	68	28	10	100%	5.8	21.1%	8.8%	12.3%	3.1%	4.53	4.51	+0.8
2030	27	MLB MLE	SF	12	12	73	307	65	27	10	100%	6.1	21.1%	8.8%	12.3%	3.1%	4.52	4.53	+0.7
2031	28	MLB MLE	SF	12	12	69	291	61	26	9	100%	5.8	21.0%	8.9%	12.1%	3.2%	4.57	4.61	+0.6
2032	29	MLB MLE	SF	11	11	64	270	56	25	9	100%	5.8	20.7%	9.1%	11.6%	3.4%	4.67	4.74	+0.5
2033	30	MLB MLE	SF	10	10	58	243	50	23	9	100%	5.8	20.4%	9.4%	11.0%	3.6%	4.82	4.92	+0.3
2034	31	MLB MLE	SF	9	9	56	237	52	21	9	100%	6.2	22.0%	9.0%	13.0%	3.8%	4.84	4.85	+0.4
2028	25	MLB CTX	SF	6	6	34	144	30	13	4	100%	5.7	20.7%	8.9%	11.8%	2.9%	4.46	4.42	+0.3
2029	26	MLB CTX	SF	8	8	50	211	44	18	6	100%	6.2	21.1%	8.8%	12.3%	2.9%	4.40	4.38	+0.5
2030	27	MLB CTX	SF	9	9	56	236	50	21	7	100%	6.2	21.1%	8.8%	12.3%	2.9%	4.39	4.40	+0.6
2031	28	MLB CTX	SF	10	10	58	245	51	22	7	100%	5.8	21.0%	8.9%	12.1%	3.0%	4.44	4.48	+0.5
2032	29	MLB CTX	SF	9	9	56	236	49	22	7	100%	6.2	20.7%	9.1%	11.6%	3.1%	4.53	4.60	+0.4
2033	30	MLB CTX	SF	9	9	52	220	45	21	7	100%	5.8	20.4%	9.4%	11.0%	3.3%	4.67	4.77	+0.3
2034	31	MLB CTX	SF	8	8	51	215	47	19	8	100%	6.4	22.0%	9.0%	13.0%	3.5%	4.68	4.69	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		60	60	358	1512	317	136	47	100%	6.0	21.0%	9.0%	12.0%	3.1%	4.51	4.16	+5.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	177	76	26	100%	6.0	21.0%	9.0%	12.0%	3.1%	4.51	4.16	+2.9
Career	—	MLE		23	21	107	451	86	42	16	91%	4.7	19.0%	9.3%	9.7%	3.6%	3.87	4.65	+4.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		43	39	200	843	160	78	30	91%	4.7	19.0%	9.3%	9.7%	3.6%	3.87	4.65	+1.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ASan Jose Giants · 102 IPFIP 3.45 → 4.65 (+1.20)K% 25.7% → 19.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.69%	—	×0.740	19.01%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.87%	—	×1.180	9.29%
HR / BF /BF	2.78%	÷1.000	×1.300	3.61%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.45 → 4.65, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jordan Gottesman (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.68	20.0%	9.3%	3.1%	—	4.53	20.9%	12.1%	229	-0.15	—	—	—
Marc Rzepczynski L 2010 · 4.23 FIP	24	SP	4.23	19.9%	10.1%	2.8%	.332	3.54	21.2%	13.0%	139	-0.69	2.43	491	86
Austin Emener L 2024 · 4.86 FIP	22	SP	4.86	19.4%	9.3%	4.1%	.306	5.38	21.4%	5.6%	63	+0.52	4.86	123	86
Brian Holmes L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	24	SP-	4.32	21.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.333	4.78	17.3%	8.0%	104	+0.46	3.60	205	86
J.C. Romero L 2000 · 4.58 FIP	24	SP	4.58	18.7%	11.2%	3.0%	.356	3.98	18.2%	8.4%	209	-0.60	2.88	652	85
T.J. Sikkema L 2022 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	21.9%	9.0%	3.9%	.298	4.54	16.9%	7.5%	231	-0.01	3.57	300	83
Joe Whitman L 2024 · 3.89 FIP	22	SP	3.89	18.6%	9.9%	2.0%	.303	3.65	19.8%	11.7%	252	-0.24	3.51	355	83
David Purcey L 2008 · 4.39 FIP	26	SP	4.39	20.1%	10.0%	3.1%	.301	4.39	17.9%	5.0%	116	-0.00	3.60	206	83
A.J. Block L 2021 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	22.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.262	5.74	20.1%	8.4%	51	+2.02	3.65	203	82
Joe Saunders L 2006 · 3.94 FIP	25	SP	3.94	16.9%	9.3%	2.0%	.300	4.48	13.1%	6.1%	491	+0.54	3.86	1,378	81
Nick Bierbrodt L 2001 · 5.15 FIP	23	SP	5.15	18.8%	9.8%	4.4%	.318	6.19	12.8%	-1.6%	60	+1.04	5.15	145	81
Cliff Lee L 2003 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	21.0%	9.0%	3.3%	.243	4.34	17.2%	9.8%	582	+0.03	2.49	2,146	81
Hayden Mullins L 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	23.4%	12.4%	3.1%	.288	3.69	25.5%	11.8%	194	-0.70	3.54	283	81
Jake McSteen L 2021 · 5.05 FIP	25	SP-	5.05	16.8%	7.3%	4.5%	.322	5.18	19.2%	12.5%	172	+0.13	2.22	286	80
Dalton Sawyer L 2017 · 4.11 FIP	23	SP-	4.11	20.6%	9.4%	2.8%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	160	80
Emmett Olson L 2024 · 3.88 FIP	22	SP	3.88	16.6%	9.3%	1.8%	.290	4.59	16.3%	7.9%	35	+0.71	3.88	147	80
Juan Pablo Oramas L 2015 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	16.5%	8.6%	2.2%	.313	3.87	17.4%	6.8%	186	-0.12	3.46	440	80
Kyle Twomey L 2017 · 3.96 FIP	23	SP	3.96	14.8%	7.9%	2.0%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	141	79
Brandon Claussen L 2004 · 4.80 FIP	25	SP	4.80	14.4%	10.5%	2.9%	.314	4.56	16.5%	9.2%	244	-0.24	4.41	310	79
Grant Watson L 2017 · 4.70 FIP	24	SP-	4.70	16.4%	10.3%	3.0%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	2.59	180	78
Christian Friedrich L 2012 · 4.26 FIP	25	SP	4.26	19.6%	8.0%	3.3%	.340	3.59	19.0%	10.6%	83	-0.67	3.39	297	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.7	68	20.9%	9.0%	1.27	4.64
Shane Greene ('23)	2.4	59	21.7%	8.6%	1.12	4.50
Luis Vizcaino ('09)	2.7	68	21.0%	10.1%	1.30	4.33
Cliff Politte ('06)	2.1	51	19.3%	9.6%	1.23	4.40
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Steve Wilson ('88-'93, 0 WAR*)	1.7	69	21.6%*	8.8%*	1.25*	4.84*
Frank DiPino ('81-'93, 3 WAR*)	3.5	78	22.5%*	9.0%*	1.00*	4.44*