Jordan Gottesman

Jordan Gottesman P San Jose Giants

Age 23 LHP 6'1" / 182 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.5 · 2028

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 102110vR 118

ERA4.47

FIP4.47

K%21.8%

BB%9.2%

K-BB%12.6%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$20M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2033	Arb-1	$2M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-2	$2M	—	—	—
2035	Arb-3	$1M	—	—	—
Totals		$3M		$5M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Eugene Emeralds	23	21	107	451	113	35	12	91%	4.7	19.0%	9.3%	9.7%	3.6%	3.87	4.65	—
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Eugene Emeralds	23	21	107	451	113	35	12	91%	4.7	19.0%	9.3%	9.7%	3.6%	3.87	4.65	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A RAW	SF	22	20	102	432	111	34	12	91%	4.6	25.7%	7.9%	17.8%	2.8%	3.96	3.45	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	SF	1	1	5	19	2	1	0	100%	4.7	10.5%	5.3%	5.3%	0.0%	1.93	2.88	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	SF	19	19	107	453	101	40	14	100%	5.7	22.4%	8.8%	13.6%	3.0%	4.39	4.34	+0.7
2028	25	MLB MLE	SF	19	19	109	459	104	39	14	100%	5.7	22.7%	8.5%	14.2%	3.0%	4.32	4.28	+0.8
2029	26	MLB MLE	SF	18	18	109	459	105	39	14	100%	6.0	22.9%	8.5%	14.4%	3.0%	4.28	4.25	+0.8
2030	27	MLB MLE	SF	18	18	107	452	103	38	14	100%	5.9	22.9%	8.5%	14.3%	3.0%	4.29	4.29	+0.8
2031	28	MLB MLE	SF	17	17	104	439	100	38	14	100%	6.1	22.7%	8.7%	14.1%	3.1%	4.34	4.38	+0.6
2032	29	MLB MLE	SF	17	17	99	419	94	37	14	100%	5.8	22.5%	8.9%	13.6%	3.3%	4.44	4.51	+0.5
2033	30	MLB MLE	SF	16	16	93	394	87	36	14	100%	5.8	22.1%	9.2%	13.0%	3.5%	4.59	4.68	+0.2
2034	31	MLB MLE	SF	14	14	87	367	80	35	14	100%	6.2	21.7%	9.5%	12.2%	3.7%	4.77	4.88	+0.0
2035	32	MLB MLE	SF	13	13	80	339	72	34	13	100%	6.2	21.3%	9.9%	11.4%	4.0%	4.97	5.11	-0.2
2027	24	MLB CTX	SF	8	8	46	194	43	17	5	100%	5.8	22.4%	8.8%	13.6%	2.8%	4.27	4.22	+0.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	SF	12	12	72	304	69	26	8	100%	6.0	22.7%	8.5%	14.2%	2.8%	4.20	4.16	+0.5
2029	26	MLB CTX	SF	14	14	86	363	83	31	10	100%	6.1	22.9%	8.5%	14.4%	2.8%	4.16	4.13	+0.7
2030	27	MLB CTX	SF	15	15	91	384	88	33	11	100%	6.1	22.9%	8.5%	14.3%	2.8%	4.17	4.17	+0.7
2031	28	MLB CTX	SF	15	15	92	388	88	34	11	100%	6.1	22.7%	8.7%	14.1%	2.9%	4.21	4.25	+0.6
2032	29	MLB CTX	SF	15	15	90	380	85	34	12	100%	6.0	22.5%	8.9%	13.6%	3.0%	4.30	4.37	+0.4
2033	30	MLB CTX	SF	14	14	86	363	80	33	12	100%	6.1	22.1%	9.2%	13.0%	3.2%	4.45	4.54	+0.2
2034	31	MLB CTX	SF	14	14	81	342	74	33	12	100%	5.8	21.7%	9.5%	12.2%	3.4%	4.62	4.73	+0.0
2035	32	MLB CTX	SF	12	12	75	317	67	31	12	100%	6.2	21.3%	9.9%	11.4%	3.7%	4.81	4.95	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		121	121	720	3040	680	271	92	100%	6.0	22.4%	8.9%	13.4%	3.0%	4.35	4.01	+7.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	189	75	26	100%	6.0	22.4%	8.9%	13.4%	3.0%	4.35	4.01	+2.1
Career	—	MLE		23	21	107	451	86	42	16	91%	4.7	19.0%	9.3%	9.7%	3.6%	3.87	4.65	+4.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		43	39	200	843	160	78	30	91%	4.7	19.0%	9.3%	9.7%	3.6%	3.87	4.65	+0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jordan Gottesman (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.47	21.8%	9.2%	3.0%	—	4.29	22.7%	14.1%	325	-0.18	—	—	—
Austin Warner L 2017 · 4.01 FIP	23	SP	4.01	18.6%	8.1%	2.6%	.291	4.43	17.6%	9.4%	284	+0.42	3.81	491	83
Hogan Harris L 2019 · 3.84 FIP	22	SP	3.84	20.5%	10.6%	2.1%	.235	3.71	27.4%	12.7%	74	-0.13	3.11	495	80
Jake Bennett L 2023 · 3.41 FIP	22	SP	3.41	21.2%	7.2%	2.2%	.339	3.36	19.1%	13.6%	214	-0.05	3.32	277	79
Sam Weatherly L 2021 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	24.0%	12.8%	2.5%	.323	4.14	21.9%	8.9%	41	+0.07	4.07	209	78
T.J. Sikkema L 2022 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	21.9%	9.0%	3.9%	.298	4.54	16.8%	7.5%	231	-0.01	3.57	300	77
Christian MacLeod L 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	16.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.312	4.60	19.5%	5.2%	212	+0.08	3.90	277	76
Michel Gelabert L 2019 · 4.36 FIP	22	SP	4.36	18.7%	12.1%	2.4%	.248	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	107	75
Riley Frey L 2023 · 4.00 FIP	21	SP	4.00	22.5%	7.5%	3.4%	.417	4.47	18.0%	10.8%	184	+0.47	3.87	202	75
Jacob Latz L 2019 · 3.35 FIP	23	SP	3.35	23.0%	12.6%	1.1%	.222	5.12	22.8%	10.7%	149	+1.77	2.26	473	75
Cole Ragans L 2021 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	20.2%	11.2%	4.2%	.296	3.34	26.7%	17.4%	445	-1.80	2.48	623	74
Russell Smith L 2022 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	16.0%	10.4%	3.8%	.272	4.64	21.2%	7.8%	107	-0.50	4.00	175	74
James Paxton L 2015 · 4.22 FIP	26	SP	4.22	18.9%	9.4%	2.8%	.288	2.95	27.7%	21.7%	468	-1.27	2.46	924	74
Brent Headrick L 2021 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	22.9%	14.0%	2.6%	.383	4.58	23.7%	16.7%	227	+0.22	2.21	409	73
Parker Mushinski L 2019 · 3.57 FIP	23	SP-	3.57	21.6%	8.2%	2.3%	.303	3.67	23.3%	13.3%	106	+0.10	3.11	455	73
Robby Ahlstrom L 2022 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP-	4.62	20.1%	9.0%	3.8%	.349	4.06	21.6%	8.6%	175	-0.56	3.74	330	72
Anthony Veneziano L 2021 · 4.27 FIP	23	SP	4.27	24.9%	10.8%	3.5%	.298	4.97	18.2%	8.3%	358	+0.70	3.57	534	72
Matt Mikulski L 2022 · 4.92 FIP	23	SP-	4.92	19.4%	10.0%	4.0%	.360	6.03	16.3%	-2.8%	144	+1.11	4.92	223	72
Samy Natera Jr. L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	22.9%	13.3%	4.2%	.294	3.29	30.4%	16.9%	124	-1.85	1.94	208	72
Kyle Twomey L 2017 · 3.96 FIP	23	SP	3.96	14.8%	7.9%	2.0%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	141	71
Evan Lee L 2021 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	24.2%	11.1%	2.5%	.333	4.49	21.0%	2.7%	52	+0.65	3.82	129	71

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.6	92	22.4%	8.9%	1.25	4.47
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17