Matt Lanzendorfer

P Great Lakes Loons

Age 25 LHP 6'1" / 180 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	24	MIX2 levels	40	1	55	4.61	2.83	31.8%	12.0%	—	K 24.5% · BB 14.2% · FIP 4.13
2027PROJ	25	MLBLAD	27	0	28	4.71	4.71	24.1%	13.3%	-0.1
2028PROJ43% MLB	26	MLBLAD	20	0	21	4.66	4.65	24.3%	12.8%	-0.0
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBLAD	30	0	31	4.65	4.66	24.2%	12.6%	-0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsNick Hagadone (age 26) · Hector Mercado (age 26) · Andrew Walling (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 106115vR 123

ERA4.71

FIP4.71

K%24.1%

BB%13.3%

K-BB%10.9%

Proj IP28

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 28 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†6060

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	1	55	242	77	29	4	2%	1.4	24.5%	14.2%	10.3%	2.4%	4.61	4.13	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	1	55	242	77	29	4	2%	1.4	24.5%	14.2%	10.3%	2.4%	4.61	4.13	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	1	55	242	77	29	4	2%	1.4	31.8%	12.0%	19.8%	1.7%	4.61	2.83	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	LAD	27	0	28	118	29	16	3	0%	1.0	24.1%	13.3%	10.9%	2.9%	4.71	4.71	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	LAD	47	0	49	208	50	27	6	0%	1.0	24.3%	12.8%	11.5%	2.9%	4.66	4.65	-0.1
2029	27	MLB MLE	LAD	46	0	48	205	50	26	6	0%	1.1	24.2%	12.6%	11.6%	3.0%	4.65	4.66	-0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	LAD	20	0	21	89	22	11	3	0%	1.1	24.3%	12.8%	11.5%	2.9%	4.66	4.65	-0.0
2029	27	MLB CTX	LAD	30	0	31	131	32	17	4	0%	1.0	24.2%	12.6%	11.6%	3.0%	4.65	4.66	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		49	0	52	218	53	28	6	0%	1.1	24.2%	12.7%	11.5%	2.9%	4.65	4.28	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	205	108	23	0%	1.1	24.2%	12.7%	11.5%	2.9%	4.65	4.28	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		40	1	55	242	59	34	6	2%	1.4	24.5%	14.2%	10.3%	2.4%	4.61	4.13	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		146	4	200	885	216	125	21	2%	1.4	24.5%	14.2%	10.3%	2.4%	4.61	4.13	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Matt Lanzendorfer (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.71	24.1%	13.3%	2.9%	—	4.65	24.2%	11.5%	98	-0.06	—	—	—
Nick Hagadone L 2012 · 4.74 FIP	26	SU	4.74	22.4%	12.9%	3.5%	.310	3.88	24.6%	14.7%	82	-0.86	2.97	141	90
Hector Mercado L 2000 · 4.79 FIP	26	SU	4.79	21.7%	13.3%	3.3%	.270	4.22	22.9%	10.0%	111	-0.57	3.47	125	89
Andrew Walling L 2024 · 4.05 FIP	24	SU	4.05	23.4%	13.2%	2.3%	.281	3.73	20.8%	7.5%	52	-0.32	3.14	161	87
Mitchell Tyranski L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	25	SU	5.14	20.4%	13.6%	3.7%	.269	4.10	20.7%	6.1%	103	-1.04	3.46	145	86
Jackson Lancaster L 2024 · 4.48 FIP	25	SU	4.48	24.0%	11.1%	3.6%	.355	5.36	18.3%	4.9%	93	+0.88	4.15	142	85
C.J. Widger L 2024 · 4.21 FIP	25	SU	4.21	26.0%	16.0%	2.3%	.258	5.75	18.1%	-0.7%	57	+1.54	3.83	105	84
Colton Johnson L 2024 · 3.92 FIP	26	SU	3.92	20.8%	11.0%	2.1%	.309	4.53	12.2%	-0.4%	48	+0.61	3.92	106	84
Jared Tobey L 2021 · 4.11 FIP	25	SU	4.11	23.6%	11.8%	2.8%	.341	8.03	20.1%	1.1%	25	+3.92	3.99	158	83
Trey Cumbie L 2021 · 4.54 FIP	25	SU	4.54	25.3%	15.3%	3.0%	.284	5.07	23.3%	7.2%	42	+0.53	3.44	152	83
Wayne Franklin L 2000 · 3.80 FIP	26	SU	3.80	20.4%	10.7%	1.9%	.319	5.53	13.7%	2.4%	231	+1.73	3.80	315	83
Will Ohman L 2001 · 4.66 FIP	23	SU	4.66	22.2%	11.1%	3.7%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	2.88	350	83
Brandon Hughes L 2021 · 3.68 FIP	25	SU	3.68	27.0%	11.1%	2.7%	.300	4.59	24.3%	15.3%	149	+0.91	3.68	206	83
Robby Ahlstrom L 2024 · 3.89 FIP	25	SU	3.89	21.9%	11.6%	2.1%	.294	4.02	20.7%	11.1%	120	+0.13	3.79	332	83
Hunter Cervenka L 2015 · 3.63 FIP	25	SU	3.63	25.2%	14.7%	1.5%	.381	4.34	22.0%	10.0%	109	+0.71	3.08	194	82
Giovanni Soto L 2016 · 4.01 FIP	25	SU	4.01	21.3%	14.3%	1.6%	.348	4.18	25.6%	15.1%	25	+0.17	3.30	128	82
Peyton Alford L 2023 · 3.69 FIP	25	SU	3.69	28.0%	12.4%	2.5%	.303	4.09	24.5%	13.4%	175	+0.40	3.48	291	82
Kevin Siegrist L 2014 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	26.4%	11.4%	3.8%	.329	3.61	27.2%	16.8%	176	-0.81	2.13	246	82
John Beller L 2023 · 4.16 FIP	24	SU	4.16	21.6%	14.2%	2.0%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.16	170	81
B.J. Ryan L 2001 · 3.96 FIP	25	SU	3.96	22.8%	11.0%	2.5%	.272	2.67	29.1%	19.3%	195	-1.29	1.77	532	81
Mike Zagurski L 2007 · 4.10 FIP	24	SU	4.10	20.8%	8.9%	3.0%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	120	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.6	42	24.2%	12.8%	1.14	4.67
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
Mac Scarce ('72-'78, 1 WAR*)	1.0	52	25.9%*	12.4%*	1.27*	4.17*
José Cisnero ('24)	1.4	46	24.0%	11.3%	1.01	4.16