Jesus Ortega — OGILVIE

Jesus OrtegaSS DSL Royals Fortuna

Age 18 R/R 5'10" / 160 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION44 act + 82 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+40

AVG/OBP/SLG.176 / .256 / .203

PA82

HR0

K%23

BB%9

BABIP236

ISO27

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 20 / POW 20

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT20

scouting grade only

POWER20

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.6	$1M	+$1.0M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.9M
2035	Arb-1	$1M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.7M
2036	Arb-2	$2M	+0.5	$0.9M	+$0.4M
2037	Arb-3	$1M	+0.3	$0.5M	+$0.1M
Totals		$7M		$7M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	17	ROK	DSL Royals Fortuna	—	151	131	13	2	0	0	16	30	2	5	5	99	208	115	323	15	127	20	11	160	-19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK	DSL Royals Fortuna	—	151	122	18	2	0	0	25	22	2	5	5	148	302	164	466	16	178	15	17	238	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	18	ROK	DSL Royals Fortuna	—	44	38	4	0	0	0	5	9	0	4	1	105	209	105	315		138	20	11	164	-16	-6	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.4
YTD	18	ROK	DSL Royals Fortuna	—	44	35	5	0	0	0	8	6	0	4	1	143	302	143	445		172	14	18	230	34	-3	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.1
ROS	18	ROK	—	0%	82	74	13	2	0	0	7	19	1	2	0	176	256	203	459	27	244	23	9	238	40	-6	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.2
ROS	18	MLB	—	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		244	—	—	238	40	—	—	+0	+0	—	—
FULL	18	ROK	—	—	44	39	4	0	0	0	5	9	0	4	1	103	209	103	312		133	20	11	164	-16	-6	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.4
TOT	18	ROK	—	—	126	112	17	2	0	0	12	28	1	6	1	152	240	170	410	18	202	22	10	212	21	-11	+1	+0	+1	+4	-0.6
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	19	MLB	—	34%	215	192	38	6	1	2	19	50	2	4	1	198	277	271	548	73	252	23	9	253	52	-12	+0	+0	+2	+6	-0.3
2028	20	MLB	—	48%	349	311	63	10	2	4	31	80	4	6	1	203	283	286	569	84	257	23	9	263	60	-16	+1	+0	+4	+10	-0.2
2029	21	MLB	—	54%	450	401	82	13	2	6	41	103	5	7	2	204	286	292	578	87	260	23	9	270	65	-18	+1	+0	+5	+13	0.0
2030	22	MLB	—	57%	521	463	97	15	3	8	47	118	6	9	2	210	291	307	597	97	261	23	9	274	68	-19	+1	+0	+6	+15	0.2
2031	23	MLB	—	58%	570	506	107	17	3	9	52	129	7	9	2	211	294	310	604	99	262	23	9	276	69	-20	+1	+0	+6	+16	0.4
2032	24	MLB	—	57%	601	534	113	18	3	10	55	135	7	10	2	212	294	313	606	101	263	22	9	278	71	-20	+1	+0	+6	+17	0.5
2033	25	MLB	—	57%	620	550	117	19	3	10	57	139	8	10	2	213	296	313	609	100	263	22	9	279	72	-20	+1	+0	+7	+18	0.6
2034	26	MLB	—	60%	629	558	119	19	3	11	58	141	8	10	2	213	296	317	614	104	263	22	9	279	72	-20	+1	+0	+7	+18	0.6
2035	27	MLB	—	62%	629	558	119	19	3	11	58	142	8	10	2	213	296	317	614	104	263	23	9	279	72	-20	+1	+0	+7	+18	0.6
2036	28	MLB	—	63%	625	553	116	18	3	10	59	142	8	10	2	210	295	307	603	98	262	23	9	279	71	-20	+1	-1	+7	+18	0.5
2037	29	MLB	—	65%	616	546	115	18	3	10	58	141	7	9	2	211	295	310	604	99	262	23	9	277	70	-21	+1	-1	+7	+17	0.3
2027	19	MLB	—	34%	74	66	13	2	0	1	7	17	1	1	0	197	284	273	557	76	252	23	9	253	52	-4	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.1
2028	20	MLB	—	48%	169	150	31	5	1	2	15	39	2	3	1	207	287	293	581	87	257	23	9	263	60	-8	+0	+0	+2	+5	-0.1
2029	21	MLB	—	54%	244	217	44	7	1	3	22	56	3	4	1	203	285	286	571	83	260	23	9	270	65	-10	+0	+0	+3	+7	0.0
2030	22	MLB	—	57%	295	262	55	9	2	4	27	67	4	5	1	210	294	305	599	95	261	23	9	274	68	-11	+1	+0	+3	+8	0.1
2031	23	MLB	—	58%	328	291	62	10	2	5	30	74	4	5	1	213	295	313	608	100	262	23	9	276	69	-11	+1	+0	+4	+9	0.2
2032	24	MLB	—	57%	343	305	65	10	2	6	31	77	4	6	1	213	294	318	612	105	263	22	9	278	71	-11	+1	+0	+4	+10	0.3
2033	25	MLB	—	57%	352	313	67	11	2	6	32	79	4	6	1	214	295	319	615	105	263	22	9	279	72	-11	+1	+0	+4	+10	0.3
2034	26	MLB	—	60%	380	337	71	11	2	6	35	85	5	6	2	211	294	309	603	98	263	22	9	279	72	-12	+0	+0	+4	+11	0.3
2035	27	MLB	—	62%	391	347	74	12	2	7	36	88	5	6	2	213	296	320	616	107	263	23	9	279	72	-12	+0	+0	+4	+11	0.3
2036	28	MLB	—	63%	395	350	75	12	2	7	37	90	5	6	2	214	298	320	618	106	262	23	9	279	71	-13	+0	-0	+4	+11	0.3
2037	29	MLB	—	65%	400	354	75	12	2	7	38	91	5	6	2	212	297	316	614	105	262	23	10	277	70	-14	+0	-1	+4	+11	0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	3371	2993	632	101	18	54	310	763	42	54	14	211	294	311	605	100	264	23	9	276	69	-117	+5	-1	+36	+96	1.9
/ 162G	—			—	650	577	121	19	3	10	60	147	8	10	3	210	293	305	598	95	262	23	9	276	69	-23	+1	-0	+7	+18	0.3
Career	—			—	6058	5377	1112	176	29	91	558	1369	73	101	25	207	290	301	591	94	259	23	9	272	66	-231	+10	-2	+65	+172	1.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	577	120	19	3	10	60	147	8	11	3	208	291	303	595	95	260	23	9	272	66	-25	+1	-0	+7	+18	0.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	17	ROK	DSL Royals Fortuna	—	151	122	18	2	0	0	25	22	2	5	5	148	302	164	466	16	178	15	17	238	40	-10	-1	—	—	+4	-0.7

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	8	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
	/162	664	20	13	221	297	378	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#2Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
#3Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#3Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#4Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	9	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
	/162	664	10	9	246	289	354	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	7	3,497	54	56	211	290	309	+37	+21	1.7	1.9
	/162	664	10	11	211	290	309	+7.1	+4.0	0.3	pk7: 2
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jesus Ortega (OGILVIE)	18	20	20	45	60	152/240/170	18	202	0	6	22%	10%	21	-0.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Marco Guzman 2013 · A	18	37	35→45	47→50	47	176/257/242	66	244	2	8	26%	8%	38	-2.6	198/263/278	80	251	4	7	22%	8%	49	-1.8	227/264/332	105	291	6	8	23%	5%	60	-0.3
✕Hector Martinez 2019 · A	18	36	35→30	43→50	46	169/244/226	56	218	3	7	22%	7%	28	-3.2	189/265/253	64	251	4	9	24%	8%	43	-2.2	169/242/220	51	236	3	7	27%	8%	22	-1.0
✕Luis Carlos Diaz 2018 · A	18	36	34→30	41→45	53	167/267/218	51	215	1	7	21%	10%	37	-2.6	191/282/256	65	248	3	7	22%	10%	53	-1.5	173/283/223	51	216	2	5	19%	12%	46	-0.8
✕Juan Alonso 2022 · A	18	42→32	37→40	43→50	40	199/260/273	73	295	4	10	32%	6%	46	-2.0	184/285/263	79	357	5	9	44%	10%	56	-1.3	152/269/228	75	334	5	7	49%	11%	40	-1.1
✕Aneudis Peralta 2012 · A	18	37	35→30	49→45	51	176/263/230	54	227	3	6	22%	9%	37	-2.6	196/262/257	61	261	1	5	23%	7%	43	-2.2	195/260/254	60	252	0	2	21%	7%	39	-0.9
✕Richard Rodriguez 2012 · A	19	39	36→30	48→50	45	186/255/247	61	260	3	12	28%	8%	37	-2.6	210/266/251	41	261	1	14	19%	7%	42	-2.3	233/291/254	20	278	0	16	15%	7%	50	-0.6
✕Hidekel Abreu 2016 · A	18	42	36→40	49→50	45	199/266/263	64	280	3	8	28%	8%	46	-2.0	223/284/304	81	293	5	10	24%	7%	63	-0.8	237/299/317	80	300	6	12	21%	8%	68	-0.2
✕Andrés Nolaya 2023 · A	18	41	35→45	44→55	47	190/278/250	60	289	2	10	32%	10%	49	-1.8	189/258/257	68	296	3	15	34%	8%	41	-2.3	194/269/271	76	278	5	22	30%	7%	48	-0.6
✕Elio Castillo 2012 · A	18	43	35→30	48→50	49	202/273/265	63	251	2	8	20%	8%	50	-1.8	213/285/265	52	263	2	8	18%	7%	55	-1.4	213/278/238	26	263	0	8	18%	7%	43	-0.6
✕Alixon Suarez 2012 · A	18	39	36→45	43→40	48	187/274/249	62	250	4	3	25%	8%	47	-1.9	195/268/275	80	256	5	4	24%	7%	51	-1.7	183/257/267	85	235	5	2	23%	7%	42	-0.7
✕Andrew Caraballo 2018 · A	18	40	35→40	42→40	51	185/269/244	58	254	2	7	26%	10%	43	-2.2	179/265/257	78	292	4	7	36%	9%	45	-2.1	141/240/222	81	245	4	7	40%	10%	24	-0.9
✕Kleiber Rodriguez 2018 · A	19	37	35→30	46→40	46	175/250/234	59	244	2	5	27%	8%	33	-2.9	219/280/288	69	282	3	5	21%	7%	58	-1.2	240/298/301	61	284	2	4	15%	8%	67	-0.2
✕Jandel Paulino 2019 · A	18	39	35→40	41→45	40	185/261/243	58	280	3	8	33%	7%	40	-2.4	212/286/295	83	307	6	6	31%	7%	63	-0.8	215/300/291	76	303	6	4	28%	7%	66	-0.3
✕Rafael Herrera 2019 · A	18	43	35→40	52→50	45	200/267/266	67	269	2	12	25%	7%	47	-1.9	218/286/298	80	291	4	12	24%	8%	63	-0.8	229/304/310	81	297	4	17	22%	9%	71	-0.1
✕Oswill Lartiguez 2011 · A	18	37	34→30	40→50	44	177/236/229	53	228	2	6	23%	6%	24	-3.5	197/256/253	56	262	2	11	24%	6%	39	-2.5	209/268/255	47	279	1	15	24%	6%	40	-0.7
✕Javier Godard 2014 · A	18	37	37→40	46→50	44	178/238/250	72	216	4	8	20%	5%	31	-3.0	199/249/266	67	243	3	11	18%	5%	39	-2.5	203/252/262	59	246	2	14	17%	5%	37	-0.8
✕Manuel Falcon 2008 · A	18	43	35→30	49→50	41	200/260/254	54	286	2	8	29%	6%	41	-2.3	227/283/274	47	287	1	10	20%	6%	56	-1.3	240/298/272	32	295	0	11	17%	6%	60	-0.4
✕Roynier Hernandez 2023 · A	18	44	34→30	46→50	53	203/279/257	54	256	2	8	20%	10%	50	-1.7	230/299/285	55	293	1	9	20%	9%	65	-0.7	244/304/306	62	315	3	7	22%	8%	70	-0.2
✕Kelvin Fajardo 2014 · A	18	44	35→30	46→50	48	204/261/260	56	246	3	6	18%	7%	43	-2.2	222/278/270	48	270	1	6	17%	6%	52	-1.6	224/280/257	33	266	0	6	15%	6%	49	-0.7
✕José Alvarez 2018 · A	18	40	34→40	40→50	46	189/260/235	46	266	2	7	28%	8%	37	-2.7	218/275/277	59	303	2	7	27%	7%	53	-1.5	229/279/278	49	322	1	8	27%	6%	52	-0.4