Jean Joseph
CF Vancouver Canadians| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 19 | ATOR | 273 | .222/.309/.356 | 5 | 3 | 51 | — | .189/.264/.295 |
| 2025 | 20 | ATOR | 323 | .245/.325/.364 | 5 | 5 | 52 | — | .202/.272/.284 |
| 2026 | 21 | A+/A/ROKTOR | 188 | .233/.333/.421 | 7 | 1 | 68 | — | .192/.267/.344 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 22 | MLBTOR | 1 | .199/.264/.309 | 0 | 0 | 62 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ35% MLB | 23 | MLBTOR | 52 | .204/.270/.322 | 1 | 0 | 67 | -0.1 | |
| 2029PROJ46% MLB | 24 | MLBTOR | 106 | .208/.274/.330 | 2 | 1 | 70 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 30
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 17 | ROK | DSL Blue Jays | — | 185 | 157 | 32 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 28 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 204 | 317 | 217 | 534 | 13 | 246 | 15 | 12 | 259 | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | FCL Blue Jays | — | 108 | 89 | 19 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 29 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 213 | 352 | 303 | 655 | 90 | 305 | 27 | 16 | 311 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 273 | 239 | 53 | 15 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 67 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 222 | 309 | 356 | 664 | 134 | 281 | 25 | 7 | 299 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 323 | 286 | 70 | 19 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 60 | 15 | 5 | 5 | 245 | 325 | 364 | 689 | 119 | 290 | 19 | 6 | 312 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ | Vancouver Canadians | — | 81 | 70 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 186 | 260 | 414 | 674 | 229 | 153 | 14 | 9 | 282 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 67 | 58 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 276 | 364 | 328 | 691 | 52 | 348 | 19 | 12 | 316 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | ROK | FCL Blue Jays | — | 40 | 31 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 258 | 425 | 613 | 1.038 | 355 | 238 | 18 | 18 | 447 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Blue Jays | — | 185 | 164 | 22 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 34 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 134 | 224 | 140 | 364 | 6 | 167 | 18 | 8 | 177 | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Blue Jays | — | 108 | 95 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 42 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 147 | 250 | 211 | 461 | 63 | 245 | 39 | 10 | 210 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 273 | 244 | 46 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 88 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 189 | 264 | 295 | 559 | 107 | 256 | 32 | 5 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 323 | 292 | 59 | 15 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 84 | 15 | 5 | 5 | 202 | 272 | 284 | 556 | 82 | 262 | 26 | 4 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ MLE | Vancouver Canadians | — | 81 | 72 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 181 | 234 | 403 | 637 | 222 | 138 | 19 | 6 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 67 | 60 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 233 | 303 | 267 | 570 | 33 | 321 | 27 | 9 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | ROK MLE | FCL Blue Jays | — | 40 | 34 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 147 | 275 | 353 | 628 | 206 | 177 | 25 | 10 | 314 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Blue Jays | — | 185 | 164 | 22 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 34 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 134 | 224 | 140 | 364 | 6 | 168 | 18 | 8 | 177 | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Blue Jays | — | 185 | 157 | 32 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 28 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 204 | 317 | 217 | 534 | 13 | 246 | 15 | 12 | 259 | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Blue Jays | — | 108 | 95 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 42 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 147 | 250 | 211 | 461 | 63 | 250 | 39 | 10 | 210 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK RAW | FCL Blue Jays | — | 108 | 89 | 19 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 29 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 213 | 352 | 303 | 655 | 90 | 305 | 27 | 16 | 311 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 273 | 244 | 46 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 88 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 189 | 264 | 295 | 559 | 107 | 269 | 32 | 5 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A RAW | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 273 | 239 | 53 | 15 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 67 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 222 | 309 | 356 | 664 | 134 | 281 | 25 | 7 | 299 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 323 | 292 | 59 | 15 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 84 | 15 | 5 | 5 | 202 | 272 | 284 | 556 | 82 | 269 | 26 | 4 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A RAW | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 323 | 286 | 70 | 19 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 60 | 15 | 5 | 5 | 245 | 325 | 364 | 689 | 119 | 290 | 19 | 6 | 312 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 188 | 166 | 33 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 15 | 43 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 199 | 273 | 355 | 629 | 157 | 221 | 23 | 8 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 188 | 159 | 37 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 22 | 31 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 233 | 333 | 421 | 755 | 189 | 238 | 16 | 12 | 329 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Blue Jays | — | 185 | 164 | 22 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 34 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 134 | 224 | 140 | 364 | 6 | 167 | 18 | 8 | 177 | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Blue Jays | — | 108 | 94 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 42 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 149 | 250 | 213 | 463 | 64 | 245 | 39 | 10 | 210 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 273 | 246 | 46 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 88 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 187 | 264 | 293 | 557 | 106 | 256 | 32 | 5 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 323 | 292 | 59 | 15 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 84 | 15 | 5 | 5 | 202 | 272 | 284 | 556 | 82 | 262 | 26 | 4 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 188 | 169 | 33 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 15 | 43 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 195 | 273 | 349 | 622 | 154 | 212 | 23 | 8 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 273 | 246 | 46 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 88 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 187 | 264 | 293 | 557 | 106 | 256 | 32 | 5 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 323 | 292 | 59 | 15 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 84 | 15 | 5 | 5 | 202 | 272 | 284 | 556 | 82 | 262 | 26 | 4 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 188 | 169 | 33 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 15 | 43 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 195 | 273 | 349 | 622 | 154 | 212 | 23 | 8 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB MLE | TOR | 0% | 298 | 272 | 54 | 12 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 70 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 199 | 263 | 309 | 572 | 110 | 245 | 23 | 6 | 259 | 62 | -14 | -0 | +0 | +1 | +6 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB CTX | TOR | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 199 | 264 | 309 | 573 | 110 | 245 | 0 | 0 | 260 | 62 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 23 | MLB MLE | TOR | 35% | 151 | 138 | 27 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 35 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 203 | 269 | 321 | 590 | 118 | 248 | 23 | 6 | 267 | 67 | -6 | -0 | +0 | +1 | +3 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB MLE | TOR | 46% | 229 | 208 | 43 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 53 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 207 | 274 | 330 | 603 | 122 | 250 | 23 | 6 | 272 | 70 | -8 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +5 | -0.2 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB MLE | TOR | 52% | 291 | 265 | 56 | 12 | 1 | 7 | 18 | 67 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 210 | 277 | 335 | 612 | 126 | 253 | 23 | 6 | 276 | 73 | -9 | -0 | +0 | +1 | +6 | -0.2 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB MLE | TOR | 54% | 336 | 304 | 65 | 14 | 1 | 8 | 22 | 77 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 211 | 279 | 339 | 618 | 127 | 254 | 23 | 7 | 278 | 74 | -10 | -0 | +0 | +1 | +7 | -0.2 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB MLE | TOR | 54% | 356 | 322 | 68 | 14 | 1 | 8 | 24 | 82 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 212 | 280 | 340 | 620 | 128 | 256 | 23 | 7 | 279 | 75 | -11 | -0 | +0 | +1 | +8 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB CTX | TOR | 35% | 52 | 48 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 204 | 270 | 322 | 591 | 118 | 248 | 23 | 6 | 267 | 67 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +1 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB CTX | TOR | 46% | 106 | 96 | 19 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 24 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 208 | 274 | 330 | 605 | 123 | 251 | 23 | 7 | 273 | 70 | -4 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +2 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB CTX | TOR | 52% | 150 | 136 | 29 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 34 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 210 | 278 | 336 | 614 | 126 | 253 | 23 | 7 | 276 | 73 | -5 | -0 | +0 | +1 | +3 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB CTX | TOR | 54% | 182 | 164 | 35 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 42 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 212 | 280 | 339 | 619 | 128 | 255 | 23 | 7 | 279 | 74 | -6 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +4 | -0.1 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB CTX | TOR | 54% | 193 | 174 | 37 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 44 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 213 | 281 | 340 | 621 | 128 | 257 | 23 | 7 | 280 | 75 | -6 | -0 | +0 | +1 | +4 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 683 | 618 | 129 | 27 | 3 | 14 | 45 | 156 | 14 | 5 | 4 | 209 | 278 | 330 | 608 | 121 | 254 | 23 | 7 | 277 | 60 | -22 | -1 | +0 | +2 | +15 | -0.5 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 588 | 123 | 26 | 3 | 13 | 43 | 148 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 209 | 278 | 330 | 608 | 121 | 255 | 23 | 7 | 277 | 60 | -21 | -1 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -0.5 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2548 | 2297 | 452 | 96 | 6 | 47 | 162 | 631 | 63 | 34 | 29 | 197 | 268 | 305 | 574 | 108 | 247 | 25 | 6 | 257 | 60 | -49 | -1 | +0 | +5 | +32 | -1.3 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 586 | 115 | 24 | 2 | 12 | 41 | 161 | 16 | 9 | 7 | 196 | 267 | 305 | 573 | 109 | 246 | 25 | 6 | 257 | 60 | -22 | -0 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -0.6 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 A+Vancouver Canadians · 81 PAwOBA .288 → .251 (−37)K% 13.6% → 18.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.58% | ÷1.000 | ×1.350 | — | — | 18.33% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.64% | ÷1.000 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.027 | 6.30% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 10.17% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×1.007 | ×1.027 | 9.58% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.39% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.007 | ×1.027 | 2.91% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.69% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×1.007 | ×1.027 | 1.44% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.78% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.027 | 5.78% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.007.
Result: wOBA .288 → .251; ISO .229 → .202; BABIP .153 → .138. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 ADunedin Blue Jays · 67 PAwOBA .314 → .264 (−50)K% 19.4% → 26.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.40% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 26.39% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.94% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 8.36% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.89% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.007 | ×1.015 | 27.17% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.007 | ×1.015 | 5.66% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×1.007 | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.007.
Result: wOBA .314 → .264; ISO .052 → .043; BABIP .348 → .321. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 ROKFCL Blue Jays · 40 PAwOBA .435 → .314 (−121)K% 17.5% → 25.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.50% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 25.20% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.50% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.985 | 10.69% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 3.55% |
| Singles /BIP | 12.50% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.985 | 10.10% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 5.91% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 12.50% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.985 | 9.60% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .435 → .314; ISO .355 → .271; BABIP .238 → .177. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ADunedin Blue Jays · 323 PAwOBA .307 → .245 (−61)K% 18.6% → 26.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.58% | ÷0.968 | ×1.360 | — | — | 26.09% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.88% | ÷1.015 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 4.12% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.64% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 3.73% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.35% | ÷1.006 | ×0.920 | ×1.005 | ×1.030 | 19.26% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.41% | ÷1.047 | ×0.830 | ×1.005 | ×1.030 | 6.90% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.910 | ×1.005 | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.21% | ÷1.284 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 1.42% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 157, 1B 101, 2B 109, 3B 80, K 94, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.005.
Result: wOBA .307 → .245; ISO .119 → .083; BABIP .290 → .262. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ADunedin Blue Jays · 273 PAwOBA .295 → .244 (−52)K% 24.5% → 32.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.54% | ÷1.041 | ×1.360 | — | — | 32.07% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.33% | ÷0.959 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.045 | 5.51% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.66% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.045 | 2.99% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.60% | ÷0.962 | ×0.920 | ×0.962 | ×1.045 | 17.88% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.72% | ÷0.999 | ×0.830 | ×0.962 | ×1.045 | 7.28% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.58% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×0.962 | ×1.045 | 0.46% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.91% | ÷1.003 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.045 | 2.42% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 92, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 108, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.962.
Result: wOBA .295 → .244; ISO .134 → .105; BABIP .281 → .256. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKFCL Blue Jays · 108 PAwOBA .304 → .210 (−94)K% 26.9% → 38.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.85% | ÷1.006 | ×1.440 | — | — | 38.46% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.74% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.022 | 9.98% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.85% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.022 | 1.36% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.67% | ÷0.968 | ×0.820 | ×0.974 | ×1.022 | 18.28% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.33% | ÷1.008 | ×0.720 | ×0.974 | ×1.022 | 5.93% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.042 | ×0.720 | ×0.974 | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.67% | ÷1.005 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.022 | 1.32% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 94, 2B 102, 3B 108, K 101, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.974.
Result: wOBA .304 → .210; ISO .090 → .060; BABIP .305 → .245. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 DSLDSL Blue Jays · 185 PAwOBA .253 → .177 (−76)K% 15.1% → 18.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.14% | ÷1.008 | ×1.220 | — | — | 18.33% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.35% | ÷1.034 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 7.86% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.16% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 1.55% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.26% | ÷1.011 | ×0.680 | ×0.988 | ×1.022 | 15.81% |
| Doubles /BIP | 1.55% | ÷0.960 | ×0.600 | ×0.988 | ×1.022 | 0.98% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×0.988 | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.130 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 126, 1B 102, 2B 92, 3B 100, K 102, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.988.
Result: wOBA .253 → .177; ISO .013 → .008; BABIP .246 → .167. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).