Sebastian Caseres

Sebastian Caseres P ACL Angels

Age 18 LHP 5'11" / 148 lbs ROK peak 0.2 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 95103vR 111

ERA4.10

FIP4.10

K%22.7%

BB%7.5%

K-BB%15.2%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Angels	17	1	34	128	40	7	0	6%	2.0	21.3%	6.8%	14.4%	0.0%	2.67	2.17	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Angels	17	1	34	128	40	7	0	6%	2.0	21.3%	6.8%	14.4%	0.0%	2.67	2.17	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Angels	17	1	34	128	40	7	0	6%	2.0	31.2%	5.5%	25.8%	0.0%	2.67	1.35	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	18	ROK MLE	ACL Angels	13	0	17	73	22	5	1	0%	1.3	20.5%	8.6%	11.9%	1.9%	1.56	3.51	—
YTD	18	ROK MLE	ACL Angels	13	0	17	73	22	5	1	0%	1.3	20.5%	8.6%	11.9%	1.9%	1.56	3.51	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	18	ROK RAW	LAA	13	0	17	73	22	5	1	0%	1.3	30.1%	6.8%	23.3%	1.4%	1.56	2.17	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	19	MLB MLE	LAA	30	0	32	134	31	10	4	0%	1.1	23.1%	7.4%	15.7%	2.8%	4.07	4.03	+0.2
2027	19	MLB CTX	LAA	15	0	16	68	16	5	2	0%	1.1	23.1%	7.4%	15.7%	2.8%	4.07	4.03	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		15	0	16	66	15	5	2	0%	1.0	23.1%	7.4%	15.7%	2.8%	4.07	3.65	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	192	64	26	0%	1.1	23.1%	7.4%	15.7%	2.8%	4.07	3.65	+2.1
Career	—	MLE		30	1	51	201	42	15	1	3%	1.7	21.0%	7.5%	13.5%	0.7%	2.29	2.66	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		118	4	200	788	165	59	5	3%	1.7	21.0%	7.5%	13.5%	0.7%	2.29	2.66	+1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Sebastian Caseres (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.10	22.7%	7.5%	2.9%	—	4.03	23.1%	15.7%	32	-0.07	—	—	—
Luis Viloria L 2022 · 3.64 FIP	18	SU	3.64	19.9%	6.5%	2.6%	.297	4.63	20.0%	4.7%	57	+0.99	3.16	101	85
Alex Delgado L 2015 · 2.93 FIP	20	SU	2.93	24.2%	6.8%	1.8%	.318	3.69	16.0%	9.4%	195	+0.76	2.93	378	84
Juan Amarante L 2022 · 3.26 FIP	18	SU	3.26	23.1%	10.6%	1.4%	.299	4.47	18.0%	4.3%	178	+1.21	3.26	256	82
Denny Bentley L 2018 · 4.85 FIP	20	SU	4.85	19.6%	10.3%	3.8%	.318	2.88	25.4%	10.3%	58	-1.97	2.88	175	79
Jacob Patterson L 2017 · 3.08 FIP	21	SU	3.08	24.4%	9.5%	1.5%	.275	3.93	22.4%	14.5%	123	+0.85	3.04	160	79
Kenny Rosenberg L 2016 · 3.65 FIP	21	SU	3.65	20.8%	6.9%	2.6%	.313	4.64	17.3%	6.9%	361	+0.99	3.44	755	77
Josh Hendrickson L 2019 · 3.80 FIP	21	SW	3.80	21.8%	6.7%	3.1%	.250	4.67	19.3%	10.9%	110	+0.87	3.80	365	76
Oddy Nunez L 2015 · 4.40 FIP	18	SU	4.40	14.9%	6.9%	3.1%	.281	4.39	12.6%	3.3%	286	-0.01	3.88	386	75
Pablo Garabitos L 2019 · 3.16 FIP	19	SU	3.16	16.4%	7.1%	1.0%	.327	2.55	20.5%	13.0%	71	-0.61	1.79	105	75
Jonah Wesely L 2015 · 2.91 FIP	20	SU	2.91	24.5%	11.8%	0.7%	.301	3.66	21.4%	8.7%	103	+0.75	2.91	134	74
José Torres L 2015 · 3.36 FIP	21	SU	3.36	19.7%	8.3%	1.6%	.262	3.99	21.2%	13.6%	130	+0.63	3.36	204	73
Connor Curlis L 2018 · 3.49 FIP	21	SU	3.49	19.3%	10.8%	1.2%	.306	6.08	16.6%	4.6%	172	+2.59	3.49	309	73
Gregori Louis L 2022 · 5.03 FIP	19	SU	5.03	25.4%	13.1%	4.4%	.364	4.96	19.1%	2.9%	89	-0.07	3.58	149	73
Dalton Moats L 2016 · 3.62 FIP	21	SU	3.62	15.5%	4.9%	2.2%	.352	4.59	18.1%	9.9%	191	+0.97	3.23	322	73
Gabriel Moya L 2015 · 3.90 FIP	20	SU	3.90	26.6%	10.9%	3.0%	.283	2.71	26.4%	18.8%	201	-1.19	1.95	270	73
Vance Tatum L 2016 · 5.04 FIP	21	SU	5.04	17.2%	9.7%	3.9%	.319	5.06	15.6%	2.3%	85	+0.02	4.90	116	72
Angel Roman L 2022 · 3.75 FIP	18	SU	3.75	21.4%	13.5%	1.4%	.286	3.82	13.2%	4.3%	169	+0.07	2.74	196	72
Miguel Jerez L 2016 · 4.53 FIP	18	SU	4.53	15.0%	9.6%	2.7%	.268	3.46	14.8%	8.9%	129	-1.07	3.39	151	71
Felix Carvallo L 2015 · 4.56 FIP	21	SU	4.56	17.1%	9.8%	3.0%	.323	4.60	17.7%	4.7%	67	+0.04	4.56	132	70
Drew Harrington L 2016 · 4.18 FIP	21	SU	4.18	15.7%	9.6%	2.1%	.295	4.14	12.5%	5.4%	175	-0.04	3.17	190	70

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	26	23.0%	7.5%	1.11	4.08
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47
Eli Morgan ('24)	1.3	66	23.8%	6.4%	1.46	3.97
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Colin Poche ('24)	1.0	52	27.0%	9.2%	1.34	3.63