Joan Pena
P
ACL Brewers
Age 18
LHP
5'11" / 205 lbs
ROK
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION37 act + 26 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116125vR 134
ERA5.12
FIP5.12
K%16.0%
BB%11.1%
K-BB%4.9%
ROS IP26
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 64 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 17 | ROK | DSL Brewers Gold | 10 | 6 | 44 | 186 | 42 | 15 | 1 | 60% | 4.4 | 15.4% | 10.1% | 5.3% | 0.7% | 3.25 | 3.46 | — |
| 2025 | 17 | ROK | DSL Brewers Gold | 10 | 6 | 44 | 186 | 42 | 15 | 1 | 60% | 4.4 | 22.6% | 8.1% | 14.5% | 0.5% | 3.25 | 2.51 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 18 | ROK | ACL Brewers | 11 | 2 | 37 | 181 | 43 | 29 | 2 | 18% | 3.4 | 16.2% | 20.0% | -3.9% | 1.5% | 5.06 | 5.12 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 18 | MLB | MIL | 25 | 0 | 26 | 111 | 18 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.0% | 11.1% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 5.12 | 5.12 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 18 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 16.0% | 11.1% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 5.12 | 5.12 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 18 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 64 | 292 | 61 | 41 | 5 | — | — | 20.8% | 14.1% | 6.6% | 1.8% | 5.09 | 5.12 | -0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 19 | MLB | MIL | 26 | 0 | 28 | 117 | 20 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.3% | 10.5% | 6.8% | 2.8% | 4.96 | 4.91 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 19 | MLB | MIL | 13 | 0 | 14 | 59 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.3% | 10.5% | 6.8% | 2.8% | 4.96 | 4.91 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 13 | 0 | 14 | 57 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.3% | 10.5% | 6.8% | 2.8% | 4.96 | 4.53 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 147 | 88 | 29 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.3% | 10.5% | 6.8% | 2.8% | 4.96 | 4.53 | +2.0 | ||
| Career | — | 21 | 8 | 82 | 367 | 58 | 55 | 4 | 38% | 3.9 | 15.7% | 15.0% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 4.08 | 4.28 | +0.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 51 | 20 | 200 | 899 | 142 | 135 | 10 | 38% | 3.9 | 15.7% | 15.0% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 4.08 | 4.28 | +2.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Joan Pena (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.12 | 16.0% | 11.1% | 2.9% | — | 4.91 | 17.3% | 6.8% | 28 | -0.21 | — | — | — |
| Sonny Vargas L 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 18 | SW | 4.31 | 15.8% | 10.2% | 2.3% | .370 | 4.43 | 21.0% | 10.9% | 54 | +0.12 | 3.20 | 165 | 84 |
| Braham Rosario L 2026 · 4.92 FIP | 18 | SW | 4.92 | 13.7% | 11.3% | 2.8% | .248 | 2.97 | 16.7% | 6.7% | 59 | -1.95 | 2.97 | 107 | 84 |
| Kenny Hernandez L 2027 · 3.99 FIP | 19 | SW | 3.99 | 15.3% | 8.3% | 2.1% | .330 | 3.20 | 15.2% | 6.2% | 96 | -0.79 | 3.20 | 424 | 82 |
| Cristian Machuca L 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 18 | SP- | 4.50 | 12.6% | 8.5% | 2.5% | .342 | 3.30 | 10.3% | 4.1% | 61 | -1.20 | 3.30 | 110 | 80 |
| Alex Ayala Jr. L 2028 · 4.28 FIP | 20 | SW | 4.28 | 20.7% | 12.3% | 2.5% | .271 | 5.86 | 13.6% | -3.1% | 71 | +1.58 | 4.28 | 128 | 80 |
| Yeury Gervacio L 2027 · 4.88 FIP | 19 | SW | 4.88 | 13.9% | 13.8% | 2.2% | .376 | 4.73 | 17.8% | 4.2% | 65 | -0.15 | 4.09 | 184 | 78 |
| Thomas Ireland L 2029 · 4.50 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.50 | 16.7% | 8.7% | 3.1% | .286 | 3.55 | 17.3% | 8.3% | 177 | -0.95 | 2.94 | 221 | 76 |
| Juan Sanchez L 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 18 | SP- | 4.49 | 14.2% | 13.3% | 1.7% | .333 | 3.31 | 24.3% | 13.2% | 103 | -1.18 | 3.07 | 345 | 76 |
| Bodi Rascon L 2028 · 4.55 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.55 | 15.4% | 8.8% | 3.0% | .271 | 5.56 | 15.7% | 3.9% | 143 | +1.01 | 4.55 | 218 | 76 |
| Conner Menez L 2029 · 4.05 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.05 | 16.0% | 8.5% | 2.2% | .282 | 3.87 | 21.9% | 10.7% | 377 | -0.18 | 2.03 | 503 | 75 |
| Alexander Calderon L 2027 · 3.97 FIP | 19 | SU | 3.97 | 15.4% | 12.5% | 1.1% | .264 | 3.56 | 14.9% | 2.5% | 119 | -0.41 | 3.08 | 183 | 75 |
| Dilmer Mejia L 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 18 | SW | 4.25 | 13.7% | 5.3% | 3.0% | .319 | 3.78 | 13.6% | 5.0% | 168 | -0.47 | 2.80 | 369 | 75 |
| Colin Schmid L 2028 · 4.81 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.81 | 11.8% | 9.7% | 2.7% | .298 | 4.01 | 15.2% | 5.7% | 125 | -0.80 | 3.24 | 191 | 75 |
| Randy Pondler L 2027 · 4.26 FIP | 19 | SW | 4.26 | 9.1% | 8.7% | 1.5% | .336 | 4.50 | 13.3% | 6.4% | 69 | +0.24 | 4.18 | 113 | 75 |
| Luifer Romero L 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 18 | SW | 4.05 | 13.9% | 6.6% | 2.4% | .321 | 3.62 | 18.1% | 4.7% | 53 | -0.43 | 3.08 | 106 | 74 |
| Kevin Escorcia L 2028 · 5.63 FIP | 20 | SW | 5.63 | 14.3% | 10.8% | 4.3% | .394 | 3.63 | 22.4% | 8.2% | 118 | -2.00 | 3.26 | 189 | 74 |
| Brayan Mendoza L 2026 · 5.26 FIP | 18 | SP- | 5.26 | 17.9% | 15.0% | 3.2% | .273 | 3.88 | 17.1% | 6.3% | 221 | -1.38 | 3.58 | 359 | 72 |
| Ronny Agustin L 2028 · 3.99 FIP | 20 | SW | 3.99 | 12.1% | 12.3% | 0.7% | .312 | 3.85 | 20.7% | 5.9% | 110 | -0.14 | 3.13 | 158 | 72 |
| Javier Chacon L 2027 · 5.42 FIP | 19 | SP- | 5.42 | 22.5% | 13.1% | 4.7% | .295 | 4.69 | 20.3% | 3.5% | 94 | -0.73 | 4.63 | 181 | 72 |
| Gabriel Agostini L 2026 · 4.95 FIP | 18 | SP- | 4.95 | 14.6% | 15.0% | 2.2% | .311 | 5.24 | 12.7% | -2.7% | 55 | +0.29 | 1.97 | 122 | 72 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 27 | 16.7% | 10.8% | 1.11 | 5.04 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Vance Worley ('17) | 3 | 77 | 15.4% | 8.5% | 1.02 | 4.73 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |