Joan Pena — OGILVIE

Joan Pena P ACL Brewers

Age 18 LHP 5'11" / 205 lbs ROK peak 0.6 · 2032

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 26 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114122vR 130

ERA5.12

FIP5.12

K%16.0%

BB%11.1%

K-BB%4.8%

ROS IP26

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 26 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL4545

CMD4040

K†3045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers Gold	10	6	44	186	42	15	1	60%	4.4	15.4%	10.1%	5.3%	0.7%	3.25	3.48	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers Gold	10	6	44	186	42	15	1	60%	4.4	15.4%	10.1%	5.3%	0.7%	3.25	3.48	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Brewers Gold	10	6	44	186	42	15	1	60%	4.4	22.6%	8.1%	14.5%	0.5%	3.25	2.51	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	18	A MLE	Wilson Warbirds	17	4	54	272	67	45	5	24%	3.2	17.2%	20.3%	-3.1%	2.5%	6.96	5.57	—
YTD	18	A MLE	Wilson Warbirds	17	4	54	272	67	45	5	24%	3.2	17.2%	20.3%	-3.1%	2.5%	6.96	5.57	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	18	ROK RAW	MIL	12	2	39	190	47	29	2	17%	3.2	24.7%	15.3%	9.5%	1.1%	4.85	3.52	—
2026	18	A RAW	MIL	5	2	15	82	20	16	3	40%	3.1	24.4%	19.5%	4.9%	3.7%	12.33	5.52	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	19	MLB MLE	MIL	53	0	56	236	41	25	7	0%	1.1	17.3%	10.6%	6.8%	2.8%	4.96	4.91	-0.2
2028	20	MLB MLE	MIL	56	0	59	248	45	25	7	0%	1.0	18.2%	10.2%	8.0%	2.8%	4.82	4.76	-0.1
2027	19	MLB CTX	MIL	26	0	27	114	20	12	3	0%	1.0	17.3%	10.6%	6.8%	2.8%	4.96	4.91	-0.1
2028	20	MLB CTX	MIL	41	0	43	182	33	18	5	0%	1.0	18.2%	10.2%	8.0%	2.8%	4.82	4.76	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		67	0	70	297	53	31	8	0%	1.0	17.9%	10.3%	7.6%	2.8%	4.87	4.44	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	151	88	23	0%	1.1	17.9%	10.3%	7.6%	2.8%	4.87	4.44	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		27	10	99	458	75	74	8	37%	3.7	16.4%	16.1%	0.3%	1.8%	5.29	4.72	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		55	20	200	928	153	150	16	37%	3.7	16.4%	16.1%	0.3%	1.8%	5.29	4.72	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Joan Pena (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.12	16.0%	11.1%	2.9%	—	4.83	17.8%	7.4%	115	-0.29	—	—	—
Braham Rosario L 2018 · 4.92 FIP	18	SW	4.92	13.7%	11.3%	2.8%	.248	2.97	16.7%	6.7%	59	-1.95	2.97	107	85
Sonny Vargas L 2019 · 4.31 FIP	18	SW	4.31	15.8%	10.2%	2.3%	.370	4.54	21.0%	10.9%	54	+0.23	3.20	165	83
Jhon Medina L 2023 · 4.79 FIP	17	SW	4.79	12.7%	13.7%	1.9%	.271	5.04	14.7%	-1.5%	132	+0.25	3.31	168	81
Kenny Hernandez L 2017 · 3.99 FIP	19	SW	3.99	15.3%	8.3%	2.1%	.330	3.16	15.2%	6.2%	96	-0.83	3.16	424	80
Alex Ayala Jr. L 2022 · 4.20 FIP	20	SW	4.20	20.7%	12.3%	2.3%	.271	5.99	13.6%	-3.1%	71	+1.79	4.20	128	80
Cristian Machuca L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	18	SP-	4.50	12.6%	8.5%	2.5%	.342	3.30	10.3%	4.1%	61	-1.20	3.30	110	79
Yeury Gervacio L 2018 · 4.88 FIP	19	SW	4.88	13.9%	13.8%	2.2%	.376	4.70	17.8%	4.2%	65	-0.18	4.10	184	79
Bodi Rascon L 2021 · 4.18 FIP	20	SP-	4.18	15.4%	8.8%	2.3%	.271	5.30	15.7%	3.9%	143	+1.12	4.18	218	77
Thomas Ireland L 2023 · 4.64 FIP	21	SP-	4.64	16.7%	8.7%	3.4%	.286	3.80	17.3%	7.9%	201	-0.84	2.95	245	77
Luifer Romero L 2023 · 4.34 FIP	18	SW	4.34	13.9%	6.6%	2.9%	.321	3.58	18.1%	4.7%	53	-0.76	3.08	106	76
Dilmer Mejia L 2015 · 4.25 FIP	18	SW	4.25	13.7%	5.3%	3.0%	.319	3.78	13.6%	5.0%	168	-0.47	2.80	369	76
Juan Sanchez L 2019 · 4.49 FIP	18	SP-	4.49	14.2%	13.3%	1.7%	.333	3.36	24.3%	13.2%	103	-1.13	3.07	345	75
Kevin Escorcia L 2015 · 5.63 FIP	20	SW	5.63	14.3%	10.8%	4.3%	.394	3.59	22.4%	8.2%	118	-2.04	3.16	189	75
Randy Pondler L 2016 · 4.26 FIP	19	SW	4.26	9.1%	8.7%	1.5%	.336	4.56	13.3%	6.4%	69	+0.30	4.18	113	75
Conner Menez L 2016 · 4.10 FIP	21	SP-	4.10	16.0%	8.5%	2.3%	.282	3.83	21.9%	10.7%	377	-0.27	2.03	503	75
Colin Schmid L 2018 · 4.81 FIP	20	SP-	4.81	11.8%	9.7%	2.7%	.298	4.10	15.2%	5.7%	125	-0.71	3.24	191	74
Alexander Calderon L 2015 · 3.97 FIP	19	SU	3.97	15.4%	12.5%	1.1%	.264	3.56	14.9%	2.5%	119	-0.41	3.08	183	74
Nate Bertness L 2015 · 4.53 FIP	19	SW	4.53	13.9%	11.4%	2.1%	.396	4.65	14.2%	2.8%	291	+0.12	3.78	382	74
Brayan Mendoza L 2022 · 5.29 FIP	18	SP-	5.29	17.9%	15.0%	3.3%	.273	3.89	17.1%	6.3%	221	-1.40	3.59	398	73
Ronny Agustin L 2015 · 3.99 FIP	20	SW	3.99	12.1%	12.3%	0.7%	.312	3.85	20.7%	5.9%	110	-0.14	3.11	158	73

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	47	17.5%	10.5%	1.09	4.93
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58