Raymond Sarmiento

P DSL Brewers Gold

Age 19 RHP 6'1" / 163 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038 peak 0.8 · 2034

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1333ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	17	ROKDSL Brewers G…	11	5	42	4.50	2.74	20.3%	6.0%	—	K 13.8% · BB 7.6% · FIP 3.70
2026	18	ROKDSL Brewers G…	11	6	49	3.51	3.22	19.6%	7.5%	—	K 13.3% · BB 9.4% · FIP 4.33
2027PROJ	19	MLB—	—	—	0	5.20	5.20	13.2%	9.8%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	20	MLB—	3	3	18	5.02	4.96	15.3%	9.5%	0.1
2029PROJ73% MLB	21	MLB—	5	5	26	4.87	4.79	16.7%	9.3%	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff30Control50Command40

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsSteven Fuentes (age 18) · Luis Ojeda (age 19) · Gerardo Bojorquez (age 19)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132124vR 116

ERA5.20

FIP5.20

K%13.2%

BB%9.8%

K-BB%3.5%

Proj IP28

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 28 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$17M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL5050

CMD4040

K†3050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.5M
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.4M
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers Gold	11	5	42	182	37	11	2	45%	3.8	13.8%	7.6%	6.3%	1.5%	4.50	3.70	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers Gold	11	5	42	182	37	11	2	45%	3.8	13.8%	7.6%	6.3%	1.5%	4.50	3.70	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Brewers Gold	11	5	42	182	37	11	2	45%	3.8	20.3%	6.0%	14.3%	1.1%	4.50	2.74	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers Gold	11	6	49	199	39	15	3	55%	4.4	13.3%	9.4%	3.9%	2.1%	3.51	4.33	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers Gold	11	6	49	199	39	15	3	55%	4.4	13.3%	9.4%	3.9%	2.1%	3.51	4.33	—
2026	18	ROK RAW	DSL Brewers Gold	11	6	49	199	39	15	3	55%	4.4	19.6%	7.5%	12.1%	1.5%	3.51	3.22	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	19	MLB	—	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	13.2%	9.8%	3.5%	2.9%	5.20	5.20	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	20	MLB MLE	—	7	7	36	152	23	14	4	100%	5.1	15.3%	9.5%	5.8%	2.9%	5.02	4.96	+0.2
2029	21	MLB MLE	—	7	7	36	152	25	14	4	100%	5.1	16.7%	9.3%	7.4%	2.8%	4.87	4.79	+0.2
2030	22	MLB MLE	—	7	7	36	152	27	13	4	100%	5.1	18.1%	8.9%	9.2%	2.8%	4.70	4.59	+0.3
2031	23	MLB MLE	—	7	7	36	152	29	13	4	100%	5.1	19.0%	8.6%	10.4%	2.7%	4.56	4.46	+0.4
2032	24	MLB MLE	—	6	6	36	152	30	13	4	100%	6.0	19.5%	8.4%	11.2%	2.7%	4.45	4.37	+0.4
2033	25	MLB MLE	—	6	6	35	149	30	12	4	100%	5.9	19.9%	8.2%	11.7%	2.7%	4.37	4.32	+0.4
2034	26	MLB MLE	—	6	6	36	150	30	12	4	100%	5.9	20.1%	8.2%	11.9%	2.7%	4.32	4.29	+0.5
2035	27	MLB MLE	—	6	6	35	147	30	12	4	100%	5.8	20.1%	8.3%	11.8%	2.7%	4.33	4.33	+0.4
2028	20	MLB CTX	—	3	3	18	76	12	7	2	100%	6.0	15.3%	9.5%	5.8%	2.9%	5.02	4.96	+0.1
2029	21	MLB CTX	—	5	5	26	110	18	10	3	100%	5.2	16.7%	9.3%	7.4%	2.8%	4.87	4.79	+0.2
2030	22	MLB CTX	—	5	5	30	127	23	11	4	100%	6.0	18.1%	8.9%	9.2%	2.8%	4.70	4.59	+0.3
2031	23	MLB CTX	—	6	6	32	135	26	12	4	100%	5.3	19.0%	8.6%	10.4%	2.7%	4.56	4.46	+0.3
2032	24	MLB CTX	—	6	6	33	139	27	12	4	100%	5.5	19.5%	8.4%	11.2%	2.7%	4.45	4.37	+0.4
2033	25	MLB CTX	—	6	6	33	139	28	11	4	100%	5.5	19.9%	8.2%	11.7%	2.7%	4.37	4.32	+0.4
2034	26	MLB CTX	—	6	6	34	144	29	12	4	100%	5.7	20.1%	8.2%	11.9%	2.7%	4.32	4.29	+0.4
2035	27	MLB CTX	—	6	6	33	139	28	12	4	100%	5.5	20.1%	8.3%	11.8%	2.7%	4.33	4.33	+0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		29	29	239	1011	191	87	28	100%	8.3	18.9%	8.6%	10.3%	2.7%	4.54	4.10	+3.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		24	24	200	844	160	73	23	100%	8.2	18.9%	8.6%	10.3%	2.7%	4.54	4.10	+3.1
Career	—	MLE		22	11	91	381	52	32	7	50%	4.1	13.6%	8.5%	5.0%	1.8%	3.97	4.03	+2.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	24	200	840	114	72	15	50%	4.1	13.6%	8.5%	5.0%	1.8%	3.97	4.03	+2.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ROKDSL Brewers Gold · 49 IPFIP 3.23 → 4.33 (+1.10)K% 19.6% → 13.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.60%	—	×0.680	13.33%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.54%	—	×1.250	9.42%
HR / BF /BF	1.51%	÷1.000	×1.400	2.11%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.23 → 4.33, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKDSL Brewers Gold · 42 IPFIP 2.75 → 3.70 (+0.95)K% 20.3% → 13.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.33%	—	×0.680	13.82%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.04%	—	×1.250	7.55%
HR / BF /BF	1.10%	÷1.040	×1.400	1.48%

Result: FIP 2.75 → 3.70, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Raymond Sarmiento (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.20	13.2%	9.8%	2.9%	—	4.78	16.7%	7.5%	108	-0.42	—	—	—
Steven Fuentes R 2015 · 4.60 FIP	18	SP-	4.60	12.1%	10.1%	2.3%	.319	3.85	16.7%	10.2%	131	-0.75	2.38	359	89
Luis Ojeda R 2016 · 4.45 FIP	19	SW	4.45	12.4%	8.6%	2.4%	.344	5.39	12.1%	3.7%	92	+0.94	4.45	131	87
Gerardo Bojorquez R 2017 · 5.76 FIP	19	SP-	5.76	12.1%	11.1%	4.1%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	5.12	102	85
Argenis Romano R 2015 · 4.32 FIP	20	SP-	4.32	11.5%	7.5%	2.2%	.287	4.85	14.9%	7.8%	86	+0.53	3.54	144	85
Alexander Vizcaíno R 2016 · 5.40 FIP	19	SP-	5.40	11.8%	10.4%	3.6%	.321	4.82	17.3%	7.0%	220	-0.58	3.85	273	84
Luke Prokopec R 2000 · 4.49 FIP	22	SP-	4.49	13.6%	10.2%	2.3%	.262	5.44	14.2%	7.6%	210	+0.95	4.49	231	84
Anthony Escobar R 2019 · 4.44 FIP	18	SP-	4.44	15.1%	9.7%	2.5%	.263	5.33	14.2%	-3.5%	23	+0.89	3.07	122	84
Tyler Phillips R 2017 · 4.65 FIP	19	SP-	4.65	9.5%	9.1%	2.2%	.286	3.30	16.7%	12.4%	259	-1.35	2.46	818	83
Yon Castro R 2018 · 4.21 FIP	19	SW	4.21	12.0%	9.5%	1.7%	.310	4.39	17.5%	5.6%	55	+0.18	3.20	274	83
Wilfredo Pereira R 2018 · 4.67 FIP	19	SP-	4.67	10.8%	9.4%	2.3%	.330	3.73	21.4%	11.0%	123	-0.94	2.26	608	82
Jorge Cespedes R 2016 · 4.88 FIP	20	SW	4.88	11.2%	12.2%	2.1%	.284	4.14	12.9%	5.6%	107	-0.74	3.47	153	82
Wellington Caceres R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	20	SP-	4.16	13.9%	6.4%	2.6%	.306	5.82	13.1%	2.1%	68	+1.66	4.16	121	82
Mauricio Estrella R 2023 · 5.38 FIP	19	SW	5.38	12.5%	10.0%	3.8%	.368	4.59	19.7%	8.2%	125	-0.79	3.42	249	82
Jeremiah Burke R 2019 · 4.88 FIP	21	SP-	4.88	11.9%	9.3%	2.9%	.330	3.78	15.7%	8.1%	34	-1.10	3.78	137	82
Alejandro Manzano R 2022 · 4.89 FIP	20	SP-	4.89	14.8%	8.6%	3.5%	.347	4.81	15.6%	6.5%	199	-0.08	4.28	273	82
Mike Garcia R 2018 · 4.11 FIP	17	SP-	4.11	17.7%	10.6%	2.1%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	125	81
Gerson Calzadilla R 2022 · 5.14 FIP	19	SP-	5.14	12.6%	11.6%	3.0%	.287	3.36	17.0%	8.3%	37	-1.78	3.36	130	81
Luis Ortiz R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	19	SP-	4.91	11.8%	9.5%	2.9%	.324	4.87	18.1%	0.0%	61	-0.04	3.55	145	81
Abel Duarte R 2015 · 4.84 FIP	21	SP-	4.84	12.5%	10.3%	2.7%	.306	3.93	13.9%	6.7%	79	-0.91	3.19	127	81
Nolberto Henriquez R 2021 · 4.99 FIP	21	SP-	4.99	16.0%	13.4%	2.8%	.305	5.60	11.3%	-3.1%	52	+0.61	4.99	108	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.6	35	18.1%	8.8%	1.07	4.63
Jeff Manship ('16)	1.1	32	16.5%	9.3%	1.05	4.82
Randy Flores ('10)	1.2	42	17.7%	9.3%	1.04	4.61
Tyler Walker ('10)	1.5	50	18.9%	8.5%	1.11	4.23
Dave Leiper ('84-'96, 0 WAR*)	1.4	46	15.6%*	9.1%*	0.94*	4.28*
Mike Munoz ('89-'00, 1 WAR*)	1.8	46	17.6%*	10.2%*	0.93*	4.46*
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*