Wilfredo Pereira
P
Springfield Cardinals
+0.7
WAR
Age 27
RHP
6'0" / 197 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 0.7 · 2026
ERA4.69
FIP4.69
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%19.8%
BB%10.0%
K-BB%9.8%
IP101
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.7peak
2026
K†4550
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 17 | ROK | DSL Cardinals | 18 | 0 | 36 | 150 | 27 | 7 | 0 | 12.2% | 5.8% | 0.0% | 2.27 | 2.81 | +0.9 |
| 2017 | 18 | ROK | DSL Cardinals | 12 | 10 | 51 | 216 | 38 | 20 | 1 | 12.0% | 11.6% | 0.6% | 3.16 | 3.91 | +0.6 |
| 2018 | 19 | ROK | GCL Cardinals | 13 | 9 | 53 | 239 | 38 | 18 | 4 | 10.8% | 9.4% | 2.3% | 4.72 | 4.67 | +0.2 |
| 2019 | 20 | A | Peoria Chiefs | 7 | 0 | 26 | 101 | 28 | 6 | 0 | 20.5% | 7.0% | 0.0% | 2.45 | 2.26 | +0.8 |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ | Peoria Chiefs | 29 | 13 | 97 | 408 | 115 | 40 | 9 | 21.7% | 11.3% | 2.6% | 3.33 | 4.12 | +1.3 |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Peoria Chiefs | 27 | 18 | 118 | 486 | 129 | 31 | 17 | 20.4% | 7.3% | 3.8% | 5.02 | 4.41 | +1.2 |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | 26 | 24 | 138 | 591 | 104 | 53 | 18 | 14.3% | 9.9% | 3.4% | 4.97 | 5.00 | +0.5 |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | 30 | 8 | 88 | 404 | 84 | 42 | 11 | 16.6% | 11.6% | 2.3% | 5.40 | 4.45 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | STL | 18 | 18 | 101 | 425 | 84 | 42 | 13 | 19.8% | 10.0% | 2.9% | 4.69 | 4.69 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | STL | 18 | 18 | 101 | 427 | 85 | 42 | 13 | 20.0% | 9.8% | 3.0% | 4.66 | 4.67 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | STL | 18 | 18 | 99 | 418 | 84 | 41 | 13 | 20.0% | 9.7% | 3.0% | 4.66 | 4.69 | +0.7 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | STL | 17 | 17 | 96 | 405 | 81 | 39 | 13 | 19.9% | 9.7% | 3.1% | 4.69 | 4.73 | +0.6 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | STL | 17 | 17 | 92 | 391 | 77 | 38 | 12 | 19.7% | 9.8% | 3.2% | 4.74 | 4.79 | +0.5 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | STL | 16 | 16 | 89 | 375 | 73 | 37 | 12 | 19.5% | 10.0% | 3.2% | 4.82 | 4.87 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | STL | 15 | 15 | 85 | 358 | 69 | 36 | 12 | 19.1% | 10.1% | 3.3% | 4.91 | 4.97 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | STL | 15 | 15 | 81 | 340 | 64 | 35 | 12 | 18.8% | 10.3% | 3.4% | 5.01 | 5.08 | +0.0 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | STL | 14 | 14 | 76 | 321 | 65 | 31 | 11 | 20.4% | 9.8% | 3.5% | 4.96 | 4.93 | +0.1 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | STL | 13 | 13 | 71 | 300 | 60 | 30 | 11 | 20.0% | 10.0% | 3.7% | 5.02 | 5.07 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 162 | 82 | 608 | 2595 | 430 | 250 | 66 | 16.6% | 9.6% | 2.5% | 4.34 | 4.31 | +6.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 53 | 27 | 200 | 854 | 142 | 82 | 22 | 16.6% | 9.6% | 2.5% | 4.34 | 4.31 | +2.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Wilfredo Pereira (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.69 | 19.8% | 10.0% | 2.9% | — | 4.70 | 20.0% | 10.2% | 296 | +0.01 | — | — | — |
| Roberto Gómez R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.98 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .315 | 5.24 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.26 | 3.98 | 115 | 93 |
| Hector Noesí R 2027 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.38 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 250 | 89 |
| Justin De Fratus R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.80 | 18.8% | 8.3% | 2.3% | .325 | 4.62 | 12.4% | 6.9% | 279 | +0.82 | 3.80 | 500 | 87 |
| Jared Mortensen R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.42 | 16.9% | 7.8% | 3.2% | .287 | 5.02 | 20.9% | 2.1% | 72 | +0.60 | 4.42 | 200 | 87 |
| Lisalverto Bonilla R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.60 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .304 | 4.72 | 15.8% | 3.2% | 11 | +0.12 | 3.22 | 221 | 87 |
| Patrick Johnson R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.89 | 17.3% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .286 | 4.13 | 15.7% | 6.4% | 120 | +0.24 | 3.89 | 248 | 85 |
| Nestor Molina R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.81 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 3.6% | .304 | 3.61 | 17.0% | 10.2% | 289 | -1.20 | 3.03 | 401 | 85 |
| Marco Antonio Duarte R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.06 | 15.5% | 9.1% | 2.0% | .306 | 4.65 | 9.0% | -1.2% | 38 | +0.59 | 4.06 | 203 | 84 |
| Aaron Northcraft R 2025 · 4.23 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.23 | 16.1% | 8.3% | 2.6% | .309 | 3.32 | 24.1% | 13.4% | 34 | -0.91 | 3.32 | 252 | 84 |
| Tim Atherton R 2024 · 3.77 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.77 | 16.2% | 8.6% | 1.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 101 | 84 |
| David Phelps R 2027 · 3.95 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.95 | 16.0% | 6.8% | 2.4% | .299 | 2.78 | 29.9% | 20.6% | 142 | -1.17 | 2.49 | 373 | 84 |
| Jose Pina R 2028 · 4.86 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.86 | 16.9% | 9.2% | 3.7% | .231 | 3.67 | 13.6% | 6.9% | 246 | -1.19 | 3.65 | 424 | 84 |
| Jacob Turner R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.43 | 14.9% | 8.8% | 2.7% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 340 | 83 |
| Zack Wheeler R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.89 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 4.2% | .327 | 3.06 | 23.0% | 16.8% | 449 | -1.83 | 2.32 | 1,443 | 83 |
| Bud Norris R 2029 · 4.64 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.64 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 3.8% | .327 | 3.81 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -0.83 | 3.39 | 316 | 82 |
| Noah Davis R 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.05 | 18.9% | 9.5% | 2.4% | .368 | 4.33 | 21.5% | 10.4% | 79 | +0.28 | 2.95 | 492 | 82 |
| David Hale R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.26 | 16.2% | 6.8% | 3.1% | .343 | 4.14 | 13.8% | 8.1% | 251 | -0.12 | 3.32 | 493 | 82 |
| Alejandro Martinez R 2025 · 4.43 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.43 | 17.5% | 10.9% | 2.6% | .393 | 4.26 | 9.2% | 3.9% | 53 | -0.17 | 4.26 | 166 | 82 |
| Brett Sears R 2024 · 3.63 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.63 | 21.1% | 7.1% | 2.6% | .244 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 111 | 82 |
| Logan Bawcom R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.73 | 16.6% | 9.2% | 1.6% | .251 | 4.86 | 16.0% | 6.7% | 234 | +1.13 | 3.73 | 399 | 81 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | +0.2 | $1.0M | +$0.6M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $5M | — | — | — |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | +0.1 | $0.5M | -$0.1M |
| Totals | $9M | $8M | -$1.0M | ||
Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.