Mauricio Estrella

Mauricio Estrella P San Jose Giants

Age 22 RHP 6'0" / 222 lbs A peak 0.1 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 17 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 114

ERA5.09

FIP5.09

K%19.8%

BB%12.8%

K-BB%7.0%

ROS IP18

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 17 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Black	13	13	63	263	64	15	3	100%	4.8	16.5%	7.1%	9.4%	1.5%	3.29	3.42	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	DSL Giants Black	13	13	63	263	64	15	3	100%	4.8	24.3%	5.7%	18.6%	1.1%	3.29	2.40	—
2023	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	8	60	289	52	24	9	47%	3.5	12.5%	10.0%	2.6%	3.8%	7.31	5.38	—
2023	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	8	60	289	52	24	9	47%	3.5	12.5%	10.0%	2.6%	3.8%	7.31	5.38	—
2023	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	8	60	289	52	24	9	47%	3.5	18.0%	8.3%	9.7%	3.1%	7.31	4.51	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	ACL Giants	14	2	23	110	25	9	4	14%	1.6	15.5%	10.2%	5.2%	4.3%	9.53	5.46	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	ACL Giants	14	2	23	110	25	9	4	14%	1.6	15.5%	10.2%	5.2%	4.3%	9.53	5.46	—
2024	20	ROK RAW	ACL Giants	14	2	23	110	25	9	4	14%	1.6	22.7%	8.2%	14.5%	3.6%	9.53	4.38	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	0	33	150	38	18	3	0%	1.8	19.1%	16.1%	3.0%	2.8%	3.86	5.08	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	0	33	150	38	18	3	0%	1.8	19.1%	16.1%	3.0%	2.8%	3.86	5.08	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	0	33	150	38	18	3	0%	1.8	25.3%	12.0%	13.3%	2.0%	3.86	3.62	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Eugene Emeralds	35	0	74	318	90	28	7	0%	2.1	21.3%	10.2%	11.0%	2.8%	4.14	4.14	—
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Eugene Emeralds	35	0	74	318	90	28	7	0%	2.1	21.3%	10.2%	11.0%	2.8%	4.14	4.14	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A RAW	SF	20	0	46	188	56	12	3	0%	2.3	29.8%	6.4%	23.4%	1.6%	3.74	2.27	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	SF	15	0	28	130	34	16	4	0%	1.9	26.2%	12.3%	13.8%	3.1%	4.76	4.14	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	SF	72	0	75	318	67	36	9	0%	1.0	21.0%	11.4%	9.6%	3.0%	4.88	4.78	-0.2
2028	24	MLB MLE	SF	73	0	77	326	71	34	10	0%	1.1	21.8%	10.5%	11.2%	3.0%	4.70	4.60	-0.0
2029	25	MLB MLE	SF	74	0	78	330	73	33	10	0%	1.1	22.2%	10.0%	12.3%	2.9%	4.56	4.48	+0.1
2030	26	MLB MLE	SF	74	0	78	330	74	33	10	0%	1.1	22.4%	9.9%	12.6%	2.9%	4.50	4.45	+0.1
2031	27	MLB MLE	SF	73	0	77	325	73	32	10	0%	1.1	22.4%	10.0%	12.5%	3.0%	4.50	4.49	+0.1
2032	28	MLB MLE	SF	71	0	75	315	70	32	10	0%	1.1	22.3%	10.1%	12.2%	3.1%	4.55	4.58	-0.0
2033	29	MLB MLE	SF	68	0	71	301	66	31	10	0%	1.0	22.1%	10.4%	11.7%	3.2%	4.64	4.71	-0.1
2034	30	MLB MLE	SF	64	0	67	282	61	30	10	0%	1.0	21.7%	10.7%	11.1%	3.4%	4.79	4.89	-0.3
2027	23	MLB CTX	SF	35	0	37	156	33	18	5	0%	1.1	21.0%	11.4%	9.6%	3.0%	4.88	4.78	-0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	SF	51	0	54	228	50	24	7	0%	1.1	21.8%	10.5%	11.2%	3.0%	4.70	4.60	-0.0
2029	25	MLB CTX	SF	60	0	63	266	59	26	8	0%	1.1	22.2%	10.0%	12.3%	2.9%	4.56	4.48	+0.1
2030	26	MLB CTX	SF	65	0	68	287	64	28	8	0%	1.0	22.4%	9.9%	12.6%	2.9%	4.50	4.45	+0.1
2031	27	MLB CTX	SF	66	0	69	291	65	29	9	0%	1.0	22.4%	10.0%	12.5%	3.0%	4.50	4.49	+0.0
2032	28	MLB CTX	SF	66	0	69	291	65	30	9	0%	1.0	22.3%	10.1%	12.2%	3.1%	4.55	4.58	-0.0
2033	29	MLB CTX	SF	63	0	66	279	62	29	9	0%	1.0	22.1%	10.4%	11.7%	3.2%	4.64	4.71	-0.1
2034	30	MLB CTX	SF	60	0	63	266	58	28	9	0%	1.1	21.7%	10.7%	11.1%	3.4%	4.79	4.89	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		466	0	489	2066	456	213	64	0%	1.1	22.1%	10.3%	11.8%	3.1%	4.62	4.23	+1.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	186	87	26	0%	1.1	22.1%	10.3%	11.8%	3.1%	4.62	4.23	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		97	23	253	1130	193	116	33	24%	2.6	17.1%	10.2%	6.9%	2.9%	5.13	4.54	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		77	18	200	894	153	91	26	24%	2.6	17.1%	10.2%	6.9%	2.9%	5.13	4.54	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Mauricio Estrella (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.09	19.8%	12.8%	3.0%	—	4.62	21.7%	11.1%	230	-0.47	—	—	—
Junior Rincon R 2015 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	17.8%	13.8%	2.9%	.318	3.75	17.6%	5.1%	82	-1.18	3.52	113	86
Tyler Santana R 2021 · 4.28 FIP	23	SU	4.28	20.3%	15.1%	1.8%	.333	4.37	16.0%	5.7%	259	+0.09	3.37	399	85
Jayson McKinley R 2017 · 4.39 FIP	23	SU	4.39	17.5%	11.4%	2.4%	.308	3.60	20.4%	11.3%	134	-0.79	2.35	173	85
Kyle Zurak R 2017 · 3.96 FIP	22	SU	3.96	21.2%	9.4%	2.6%	.302	3.42	16.7%	7.5%	121	-0.54	3.20	181	85
Luis Romero R 2017 · 5.00 FIP	23	SU	5.00	22.1%	11.9%	4.1%	.367	4.26	21.6%	12.5%	132	-0.74	4.00	293	84
Yunior Montero R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	22	SW	4.82	16.9%	14.1%	2.5%	.276	4.58	21.5%	6.2%	91	-0.24	3.65	127	84
Brandyn Sittinger R 2017 · 4.37 FIP	23	SU	4.37	22.2%	13.8%	2.5%	.324	3.97	21.2%	7.2%	72	-0.40	3.58	152	84
Josnier Parra R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	21	SU	4.56	15.9%	9.8%	2.9%	.319	5.01	12.1%	2.9%	118	+0.45	3.76	150	84
Alec Barger R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SW	4.55	21.7%	13.6%	2.8%	.289	4.17	21.3%	9.4%	148	-0.38	3.85	242	84
Sean Isaac R 2016 · 4.27 FIP	23	SU	4.27	19.5%	12.3%	2.3%	.342	3.76	25.0%	10.7%	128	-0.51	3.27	155	83
Todd Peterson R 2021 · 5.11 FIP	23	SW	5.11	18.4%	10.3%	4.1%	.279	4.83	15.0%	4.3%	124	-0.28	4.45	175	83
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	83
Thomas Balboni Jr. R 2023 · 3.99 FIP	23	SU	3.99	17.5%	10.9%	1.8%	.331	3.47	28.1%	14.3%	79	-0.52	2.99	122	82
Blake Holub R 2022 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	21.7%	15.3%	2.4%	.339	3.76	23.1%	12.3%	156	-0.79	3.23	254	82
Mike Morrison R 2016 · 4.86 FIP	22	SU	4.86	17.3%	10.7%	3.4%	.280	4.02	19.0%	7.1%	128	-0.84	3.36	145	82
Kyle Marman R 2019 · 3.97 FIP	22	SU	3.97	22.2%	12.8%	2.0%	.270	5.16	22.5%	8.4%	71	+1.19	3.97	117	82
Ismael Cabrera R 2016 · 4.77 FIP	22	SU	4.77	19.5%	12.4%	3.2%	.276	5.29	16.9%	6.5%	95	+0.52	3.56	133	82
Marc Davis R 2022 · 5.26 FIP	22	SU	5.26	20.7%	14.0%	3.9%	.151	4.87	17.1%	-0.3%	88	-0.39	4.02	111	82
Gray Fenter R 2018 · 4.41 FIP	22	SU	4.41	18.4%	12.3%	2.4%	.367	4.28	22.2%	8.0%	172	-0.13	2.83	330	82
Tyler Smith R 2018 · 5.30 FIP	22	SU	5.30	17.8%	14.3%	3.4%	.329	4.35	19.8%	7.8%	94	-0.95	3.44	121	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.1	68	21.9%	10.4%	1.19	4.65
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41