Mauricio Estrella

P San Jose Giants

Age 23 RHP 6'0" / 222 lbs A peak 0.1 · 2029

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	20	ROKSF	14	2	23	9.53	4.38	22.7%	8.2%	—	K 15.5% · BB 10.2% · FIP 5.46
2025	21	MIX2 levels	18	0	33	3.86	3.62	25.3%	12.0%	—	K 19.1% · BB 16.1% · FIP 5.08
2026	22	MIX2 levels	35	0	74	4.14	3.03	28.3%	8.8%	—	K 21.3% · BB 10.2% · FIP 4.14
2027PROJ	23	MLBSF	—	—	0	4.71	4.71	21.4%	11.0%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBSF	22	0	23	4.59	4.53	22.1%	10.2%	0.0
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBSF	30	0	32	4.48	4.42	22.6%	9.7%	0.0

Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.0 / P90 0.2, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 94%

CompsBen Anderson (age 23) · Billy Corcoran (age 23) · Alec Barger (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 106

ERA4.71

FIP4.71

K%21.4%

BB%11.0%

K-BB%10.4%

Proj IP39

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 39 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Black	13	13	63	263	64	15	3	100%	4.8	16.5%	7.1%	9.4%	1.5%	3.29	3.42	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	DSL Giants Black	13	13	63	263	64	15	3	100%	4.8	24.3%	5.7%	18.6%	1.1%	3.29	2.40	—
2023	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	8	60	289	52	24	9	47%	3.5	12.5%	10.0%	2.6%	3.8%	7.31	5.38	—
2023	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	8	60	289	52	24	9	47%	3.5	18.0%	8.3%	9.7%	3.1%	7.31	4.51	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	ACL Giants	14	2	23	110	25	9	4	14%	1.6	15.5%	10.2%	5.2%	4.3%	9.53	5.46	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	ACL Giants	14	2	23	110	25	9	4	14%	1.6	15.5%	10.2%	5.2%	4.3%	9.53	5.46	—
2024	20	ROK RAW	ACL Giants	14	2	23	110	25	9	4	14%	1.6	22.7%	8.2%	14.5%	3.6%	9.53	4.38	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	0	33	150	38	18	3	0%	1.8	19.1%	16.1%	3.0%	2.8%	3.86	5.08	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	0	33	150	38	18	3	0%	1.8	19.1%	16.1%	3.0%	2.8%	3.86	5.08	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	0	33	150	38	18	3	0%	1.8	25.3%	12.0%	13.3%	2.0%	3.86	3.62	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	74	318	90	28	7	0%	2.1	21.3%	10.2%	11.0%	2.8%	4.14	4.14	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	74	318	90	28	7	0%	2.1	21.3%	10.2%	11.0%	2.8%	4.14	4.14	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	0	74	318	90	28	7	0%	2.1	28.3%	8.8%	19.5%	2.2%	4.14	3.03	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	SF	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.4%	11.0%	10.4%	3.0%	4.71	4.71	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	SF	51	0	54	227	50	23	7	0%	1.1	22.1%	10.2%	12.0%	3.0%	4.59	4.53	+0.0
2029	25	MLB MLE	SF	46	0	49	205	46	20	6	0%	1.1	22.6%	9.7%	12.9%	3.0%	4.48	4.42	+0.1
2030	26	MLB MLE	SF	45	0	47	199	46	19	6	0%	1.0	22.9%	9.6%	13.2%	3.0%	4.43	4.39	+0.1
2031	27	MLB MLE	SF	43	0	46	193	44	19	6	0%	1.1	22.9%	9.7%	13.2%	3.0%	4.43	4.43	+0.1
2032	28	MLB MLE	SF	41	0	43	183	42	18	6	0%	1.1	22.7%	9.8%	12.9%	3.1%	4.48	4.51	+0.0
2033	29	MLB MLE	SF	38	0	40	169	38	17	6	0%	1.1	22.5%	10.1%	12.4%	3.3%	4.58	4.64	-0.0
2028	24	MLB CTX	SF	22	0	23	97	22	10	3	0%	1.0	22.1%	10.2%	12.0%	3.0%	4.59	4.53	+0.0
2029	25	MLB CTX	SF	30	0	32	135	31	13	4	0%	1.1	22.6%	9.7%	12.9%	3.0%	4.48	4.42	+0.0
2030	26	MLB CTX	SF	35	0	37	156	36	15	5	0%	1.1	22.9%	9.6%	13.2%	3.0%	4.43	4.39	+0.1
2031	27	MLB CTX	SF	37	0	39	165	38	16	5	0%	1.1	22.9%	9.7%	13.2%	3.0%	4.43	4.43	+0.1
2032	28	MLB CTX	SF	37	0	39	165	37	16	5	0%	1.1	22.7%	9.8%	12.9%	3.1%	4.48	4.51	+0.0
2033	29	MLB CTX	SF	34	0	36	152	34	15	5	0%	1.1	22.5%	10.1%	12.4%	3.3%	4.58	4.64	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		197	0	206	871	197	86	27	0%	1.0	22.6%	9.8%	12.8%	3.0%	4.49	4.11	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	191	83	26	0%	1.1	22.6%	9.8%	12.8%	3.0%	4.49	4.11	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		97	23	253	1130	193	116	33	24%	2.6	17.1%	10.2%	6.9%	2.9%	5.13	4.54	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		77	18	200	894	153	91	26	24%	2.6	17.1%	10.2%	6.9%	2.9%	5.13	4.54	+0.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ASan Jose Giants · 46 IPFIP 2.27 → 3.33 (+1.06)K% 29.8% → 22.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.79%	—	×0.740	22.04%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.38%	—	×1.180	7.53%
HR / BF /BF	1.60%	÷1.000	×1.300	2.07%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.27 → 3.33, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Eugene Emeralds · 28 IPFIP 4.14 → 5.30 (+1.16)K% 26.2% → 20.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.15%	—	×0.770	20.14%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.31%	—	×1.150	14.15%
HR / BF /BF	3.08%	÷1.000	×1.250	3.85%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.14 → 5.30, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKACL Giants · 29 IPFIP 3.61 → 5.08 (+1.47)K% 28.0% → 19.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.03%	—	×0.680	19.06%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.88%	—	×1.250	16.10%
HR / BF /BF	2.27%	÷1.128	×1.400	2.82%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 126).

Result: FIP 3.61 → 5.08, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKACL Giants · 23 IPFIP 4.21 → 5.46 (+1.25)K% 22.7% → 15.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.73%	—	×0.680	15.45%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.18%	—	×1.250	10.23%
HR / BF /BF	3.64%	÷1.178	×1.400	4.32%

Result: FIP 4.21 → 5.46, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKACL Giants Orange · 38 IPFIP 3.35 → 4.11 (+0.76)K% 22.4% → 15.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.35%	—	×0.680	15.20%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.12%	—	×1.250	5.15%
HR / BF /BF	2.94%	÷1.377	×1.400	2.99%

Result: FIP 3.35 → 4.11, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ASan Jose Giants · 22 IPFIP 5.76 → 7.19 (+1.43)K% 11.8% → 8.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	11.76%	—	×0.740	8.71%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.29%	—	×1.180	16.86%
HR / BF /BF	3.36%	÷0.890	×1.300	4.91%

Result: FIP 5.76 → 7.19, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKDSL Giants Black · 63 IPFIP 2.39 → 3.42 (+1.03)K% 24.3% → 16.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.33%	—	×0.680	16.55%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.70%	—	×1.250	7.13%
HR / BF /BF	1.14%	÷1.074	×1.400	1.49%

Result: FIP 2.39 → 3.42, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Mauricio Estrella (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.71	21.4%	11.0%	3.0%	—	4.45	22.5%	12.7%	150	-0.26	—	—	—
Ben Anderson R 2021 · 4.84 FIP	23	SW	4.84	19.8%	9.4%	4.0%	.309	4.02	16.2%	7.7%	147	-0.82	3.80	399	88
Billy Corcoran R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SW	4.20	19.5%	10.0%	2.7%	.308	5.26	16.4%	8.7%	208	+1.06	4.20	277	88
Alec Barger R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SW	4.55	21.7%	13.6%	2.8%	.289	4.17	21.3%	9.4%	148	-0.38	3.85	242	86
Ryan Conroy R 2021 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	22.2%	9.8%	2.8%	.353	4.75	19.3%	6.7%	54	+0.74	4.01	106	86
Brendan Collins R 2022 · 3.67 FIP	22	SW	3.67	21.8%	10.3%	2.0%	.294	3.86	20.2%	5.1%	54	+0.19	3.67	122	86
Jonathan Papelbon R 2005 · 3.93 FIP	24	SW	3.93	23.0%	10.1%	2.7%	.305	1.90	31.3%	26.8%	196	-2.03	1.33	726	85
Yunior Montero R 2016 · 3.65 FIP	23	SW	3.65	21.9%	11.9%	1.6%	.239	5.21	21.3%	3.7%	54	+1.56	3.65	127	85
Trent Fennell R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	23	SW	4.08	20.6%	12.2%	2.1%	.328	5.52	19.4%	3.5%	107	+1.44	4.08	163	85
Kyle Zimmer R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	23	SW	3.74	21.8%	8.6%	2.5%	.293	4.55	20.4%	9.0%	33	+0.81	2.08	276	85
Luis Romero R 2017 · 5.00 FIP	23	SU	5.00	22.1%	11.9%	4.1%	.367	4.26	21.6%	12.5%	132	-0.74	4.00	293	84
Colby Morris R 2021 · 4.11 FIP	24	SU	4.11	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.76	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.65	4.11	105	84
Zac Ryan R 2017 · 3.83 FIP	23	SU	3.83	20.5%	10.9%	2.0%	.233	3.93	21.6%	6.9%	124	+0.10	3.83	184	84
Orlando Ortiz-Mayr R 2022 · 4.61 FIP	24	SU	4.61	21.0%	13.2%	2.9%	.341	4.74	15.7%	4.0%	343	+0.13	3.65	492	83
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	83
Brandon Beckel R 2024 · 3.75 FIP	22	SU	3.75	19.4%	10.3%	1.8%	.250	4.23	19.5%	10.5%	147	+0.48	3.75	194	83
Todd Peterson R 2021 · 5.11 FIP	23	SW	5.11	18.4%	10.3%	4.1%	.279	4.83	15.0%	4.3%	124	-0.28	4.45	175	83
Clark Beeker R 2016 · 4.04 FIP	23	SW	4.04	20.0%	7.1%	3.2%	.270	4.35	11.6%	6.4%	244	+0.31	4.04	287	83
Tyler Mitzel R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	23	SU	4.34	24.1%	12.0%	3.2%	.245	4.10	22.4%	14.3%	96	-0.24	4.03	142	83
Joan Gregorio R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	23	SW	4.29	18.0%	10.2%	2.6%	.269	4.18	21.1%	11.1%	208	-0.11	3.69	301	82
Alex Klonowski R 2015 · 3.58 FIP	23	SU	3.58	21.8%	9.4%	2.1%	.331	4.69	14.3%	7.1%	413	+1.11	3.58	539	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.6	45	22.5%	10.0%	1.17	4.52
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Jacob Barnes ('25)	1.7	48	22.0%	9.2%	1.15	4.79
Wesley Wright ('15)	1.5	51	22.0%	10.1%	1.11	4.16
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Bill Pleis ('61-'66, -0 WAR*)	1.4	56	19.7%*	9.8%*	1.15*	4.53*
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*