Ryan Minckler

P Fredericksburg Nationals

Age 24 RHP 6'2" / 185 lbs A

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	22	AWSH	39	49	4.74	4.46	24.3%	22.2%	—	K 18.0% · BB 26.2% · FIP 5.49
2026	23	AWSH	24	37	6.99	5.22	22.3%	22.3%	—	K 16.5% · BB 26.4% · FIP 6.24
2027PROJ	24	MLBWSH	54	57	6.15	6.15	16.8%	20.0%	-1.0
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBWSH	24	25	5.84	5.76	17.9%	17.7%	-0.3
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBWSH	36	38	5.67	5.63	18.5%	17.0%	-0.5

Next 3 projected WAR -1.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff40Control20Command20

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsJeff Soptic (age 24) · Jacob Morris (age 24) · Brett Lockwood (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 150142vR 134

ERA6.15

FIP6.15

K%16.8%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%-3.2%

Proj IP57

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL2020

CMD2020

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	22	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	39	0	49	230	56	51	2	0%	1.3	18.0%	26.2%	-8.1%	1.1%	4.74	5.49	—
2025	22	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	39	0	49	230	56	51	2	0%	1.3	18.0%	26.2%	-8.1%	1.1%	4.74	5.49	—
2025	22	A RAW	Fredericksburg Nationals	39	0	49	230	56	51	2	0%	1.3	24.3%	22.2%	2.2%	0.9%	4.74	4.46	—
2026	23	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	24	0	37	179	40	40	3	0%	1.6	16.5%	26.4%	-9.8%	2.2%	6.99	6.24	—
2026	23	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	24	0	37	179	40	40	3	0%	1.6	16.5%	26.4%	-9.8%	2.2%	6.99	6.24	—
2026	23	A RAW	Fredericksburg Nationals	24	0	37	179	40	40	3	0%	1.6	22.3%	22.3%	0.0%	1.7%	6.99	5.22	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	WSH	54	0	57	241	40	48	7	0%	1.1	16.8%	20.0%	-3.2%	2.8%	6.15	6.15	-1.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	WSH	55	0	58	244	44	43	7	0%	1.1	17.9%	17.7%	0.2%	2.8%	5.84	5.76	-0.8
2029	26	MLB MLE	WSH	55	0	58	244	45	42	7	0%	1.1	18.5%	17.0%	1.5%	2.8%	5.67	5.63	-0.7
2028	25	MLB CTX	WSH	24	0	25	106	19	19	3	0%	1.0	17.9%	17.7%	0.2%	2.8%	5.84	5.76	-0.3
2029	26	MLB CTX	WSH	36	0	38	160	30	27	5	0%	1.1	18.5%	17.0%	1.5%	2.8%	5.67	5.63	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		60	0	63	266	49	46	8	0%	1.1	18.3%	17.3%	1.0%	2.8%	5.74	5.30	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	156	146	25	0%	1.1	18.3%	17.3%	1.0%	2.8%	5.74	5.30	-1.8
Career	—	MLE		63	0	87	409	71	107	6	0%	1.4	17.4%	26.3%	-8.9%	1.6%	5.71	5.82	-1.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		145	0	200	944	164	248	15	0%	1.4	17.4%	26.3%	-8.9%	1.6%	5.71	5.82	-2.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ryan Minckler (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.15	16.8%	20.0%	2.8%	—	5.70	18.2%	0.8%	116	-0.46	—	—	—
Jeff Soptic R 2015 · 5.30 FIP	24	SU	5.30	15.5%	17.2%	2.5%	.237	5.52	13.6%	-1.7%	68	+0.22	5.30	124	89
Jacob Morris R 2015 · 5.43 FIP	24	SU	5.43	18.0%	19.6%	2.5%	.218	4.77	18.7%	-2.4%	46	-0.66	4.77	102	88
Brett Lockwood R 2021 · 5.46 FIP	24	SU	5.46	16.2%	15.5%	3.2%	.312	4.58	11.0%	-6.3%	79	-0.88	4.24	132	87
Christian Ruebeck R 2024 · 6.03 FIP	23	SU	6.03	20.6%	24.4%	2.9%	.265	4.57	21.6%	1.9%	70	-1.46	4.35	104	86
Jonathan Teaney R 2019 · 5.65 FIP	23	SU	5.65	16.4%	15.7%	3.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.77	108	86
Cody Scroggins R 2021 · 5.35 FIP	24	SU	5.35	17.4%	15.1%	3.3%	.263	4.28	18.6%	4.4%	59	-1.07	3.78	108	86
Kelvin Vasquez R 2017 · 6.26 FIP	24	SU	6.26	15.0%	23.2%	2.7%	.247	5.06	14.5%	-0.2%	48	-1.20	5.01	180	85
Ryan Sublette R 2023 · 5.72 FIP	24	SU	5.72	21.4%	22.3%	2.9%	.278	5.06	19.2%	3.8%	102	-0.66	3.74	203	85
Jairo Beras R 2019 · 5.47 FIP	24	SU	5.47	15.0%	20.3%	1.9%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	110	85
Yordy Cabrera R 2016 · 4.99 FIP	25	SU	4.99	15.8%	17.2%	1.9%	.321	4.17	13.7%	2.7%	140	-0.82	3.43	159	84
Noah Takacs R 2024 · 5.77 FIP	22	SU	5.77	12.5%	16.4%	3.0%	.301	5.68	13.4%	-2.3%	91	-0.09	5.25	130	84
Leandro Linares R 2018 · 5.49 FIP	24	SU	5.49	16.2%	22.0%	1.8%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	1.93	134	84
Hudson Leach R 2024 · 5.37 FIP	22	SU	5.37	20.5%	20.0%	2.7%	.261	4.54	20.9%	3.1%	71	-0.83	2.77	101	83
Jake Gozzo R 2021 · 7.10 FIP	24	SU	7.10	14.3%	30.2%	2.5%	.200	5.35	15.8%	-0.7%	129	-1.75	4.32	162	83
Connor Cooke R 2024 · 5.02 FIP	24	SU	5.02	17.4%	17.0%	2.2%	.253	—	—	—	—	—	2.93	103	83
Austin Glorius R 2017 · 6.09 FIP	24	SU	6.09	18.7%	21.0%	3.5%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	141	83
Jack Hartman R 2022 · 5.78 FIP	24	SU	5.78	15.1%	20.3%	2.5%	.357	3.99	19.5%	8.6%	143	-1.79	3.46	161	82
Austin Pettibone R 2016 · 5.11 FIP	23	SU	5.11	14.6%	16.2%	2.2%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.99	142	82
Roman Phansalkar R 2022 · 6.38 FIP	24	SU	6.38	13.5%	18.4%	3.8%	.245	4.77	17.4%	4.0%	147	-1.61	4.33	164	82
Tanner Duncan R 2019 · 5.37 FIP	24	SU	5.37	17.5%	14.8%	3.4%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.28	123	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	58	17.7%	18.2%	1.09	5.89
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Ken Wright ('70-'74, -0 WAR*)	1.2	79	23.8%*	16.1%*	0.70*	5.24*